Rate Georgia

[ElectionsGuy]

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Ratings



Predictions

[SnowLabrador]

Tilt R. Herschel Walker isn't a strong candidate by any means, but I think the wave will carry him.

[Roll Roons]

Tilt D, probably closer to Lean D. Walker can win, but demographic trends in the state are horrendous for the GOP.

[SnowLabrador]

Tilt D, probably closer to Lean D. Walker can win, but demographic trends in the state are horrendous for the GOP.

Warnock is trailing in the most recent polls. Please explain how the national environment gets better for Democrats from here.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Lean R, Biden's approval rating is pretty awful there and the rural parts will show up in greater force for Walker than they did Loeffler. Also we are looking at a red wave environment which certainly won't help  Warnock even if the state is more inelastic than the country.

[Pericles]

Tilt D, probably closer to Lean D. Walker can win, but demographic trends in the state are horrendous for the GOP.

Warnock is trailing in the most recent polls. Please explain how the national environment gets better for Democrats from here.

It's certainly possible for the national environment to be a smaller wave than it is right now. It is just very, very hard to see it being the same or better for Democrats than 2020. Georgia does have its own unique dynamics and its state Republicans aren't helping themselves either, so it's probably not the first Senate seat to fall.

[Ferguson97]

Tilt D.

GOP advantage: National environment

Dem advantage: Demographics, Warnock being a stronger than average candidate, Walker being a weaker than average candidate

[Thank you for being a friend...]

Pure tossup, My gut tells me Herschel Walker wins, but that he's a one-term senator.  The very fact that the Democrats shockingly won those two Senate seats says that the state is no longer going to just be handed to the Republicans like it had been before.

[President Johnson]

Tossup/Tilt Democratic.

Warnock is a very strong candidate and Abrams' turnout machine will run full force. This combined with a weak Republican field and Georgia trends may be enough to narrowly overcome a red-leaning environment.

[beesley]

Tossup/Tilt R.

[patzer]

Likely D.

Warnock is a very strong candidate whose favourability has stayed high even when Biden's has dropped, and Georgia isn't very susceptible to waves (cf Abrams losing in wave-year 2018). Georgia is quickly shifting Dem mostly thanks to demographic shift (minority growth in Atlanta) and that's not something that can really be countered by Republicans.

I think Warnock only wins by 3-5% or so, but that that relatively narrow margin would be extremely difficult for the Republicans to overcome. Even if you were to tell me the Dems would lose the senate 53-47, I'd say that that would be thanks to losing AZ, NV, and NH while keeping Georgia.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean D it's a Runoff state and Walker is far from 50 percent

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean R, Biden's approval rating is pretty awful there and the rural parts will show up in greater force for Walker than they did Loeffler. Also we are looking at a red wave environment which certainly won't help  Warnock even if the state is more inelastic than the country.
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Trump is at 39/56 Approvals and Rs think he is getting reelected it's February and it's a runoff state Walker isn't hitting 50 percent to avoid a Runoff he is at 47/44

[Calthrina950]

Tossup/Tilt D. Warnock is a formidable candidate with an inspiring background story, Georgia has continued to trend Democratic, and the state has often moved against the national environment. Walker is not the best candidate and has vulnerabilities that could be exploited. Moreover, Warnock should be helped by Abrams, who knows how to energize the Democratic base and will run a joint campaign with him.

[Xing]

Tilt R. Warnock could win despite a bad environment for Democrats, but if I had to guess, he narrowly loses in a runoff. This is probably the last chance Republicans have of winning this seat for a while.

[Sir Mohamed]

Tilt D.

While the environment favors the GOP, Warnock is an excellent candidate for a blue-trending state and the GOP field seems rather weak. Still doesn't mean it's an easy hold, a large enough wave could very well carry a GOP candidate over the finishline.

[Mr.Phips]

Walker leads 49%-48% on Election Day, but Warnock narrowly wins the runoff.

[Schiff for Senate]

Tilt R. Herschel Walker isn't a strong candidate by any means, but I think the wave will carry him.

This. For a change this prediction of yours is not dooming Democrats - in fact, I'd say it's about right. Voted Tossup/Tilt R for now.