2022 ROC local elections Nov 2022

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

UDN poll for 高雄市(Kaohsiung City)

DPP       53 (incumbent)
KMT      18

Given the incumbency advantages at this stage of the campaign, this poll indicates something like a 58-42 victory for DPP.  Below average result for KMT.  Even given incumbency advantages, the KMT would most likely hope to get to something like 55-45.

Related to the Pelosi visit and increasing tensions with the PRC? I have to imagine that those would in general favor the DPP (as in 2020).

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

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The macro picture continues to be the theme I raised before that in Oriental political systems politics are transactional and very time-consuming.  This plus female hypergamy means any successful women politician is unlikely to find a husband to her liking that will accept the amount of time she will use up for her political career.  高虹安(Ann Kao) is 38 and it is clear looking at her picture that she was and most likely continues to be a very eligible bachelorette.  But she has an "assistant" boyfriend which I am almost certain she will not look up to enough to want to be her husband.  And anyone she would consider becoming her husband will not put up with her work lifestyle.  She is pretty much at the end of childbearing age so she will join all the other Oriental women politicians that will be childless.

You know, I really appreciate your in-depth and detailed analyses of Taiwanese politics. And then…

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

So what are the differences between the Tsai and Lai factions? I know Lai is perceived as more of a pro-independence hardliner, but that’s about it.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

The ROC media now is filled with rumors that Lai will come out to run for the DPP Chairperson position and also run for the 2024 DPP Prez nomination.    If so he is giving up any hope of compromise with DPP Prez Tsai and the Tsai faction.  He is just going to bulldoze over them to win the nomination.

Would the negative optics (insofar as they exist) of Lai being party president and a candidate for the nomination hurt him in the primary?