Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Woody]

These are all signs of losing power during a war of attrition:

Ammunition shortages, manpower shortages, economic instability, full-on mobilization, slow cracks in it's front lines, talks of compromise, etc.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1743918447703064981
bavovna 🔥

[jaichind]

From Pro-Muslim Brotherhood media based out of London late last year

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20231227-egypt-journalist-found-dead-after-exposing-luxury-villa-owned-by-zelenskyys-family/

'Egypt journalist found dead after exposing ‘luxury villa owned by Zelenskyy’s family’'

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

From Pro-Muslim Brotherhood media based out of London late last year

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20231227-egypt-journalist-found-dead-after-exposing-luxury-villa-owned-by-zelenskyys-family/

'Egypt journalist found dead after exposing ‘luxury villa owned by Zelenskyy’s family’'

This makes me wonder what pro-Muslim Brotherhood media feel about the war in general.

[jaichind]

Ukraine-claimed intercept rate fell to 35%.  Their claims of a 90+% intercept rate in the past were always fishy and I not not sure I believe this current number either.   I suspect this is more about pressuring the USA to get more anti-air systems/ammo over to Ukraine ASAP.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1744302340092342452

[Open Source Intelligence]

A Twitter/X thread by Tymofiy Mylovanov President of the Kyiv School of Economics and former Ukrainian Minister of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture:

"Ukraine society has become polarized by mobilization. Almost no one is covering this in English speaking social media.

Yeah, they're too busy putting up videos of a building blowing up without context.,

In addition to the press conferences by Zelensky and Zaluzhnyi, Ukrainian media published one idea how a draft can go and that caused a social media storm

The idea is attributed to the government, but no one admitted on record. It is that the government will mobilize whoever is needed for the army, but companies and people who provide high value and pay taxes might be fast tracked to be exempt

The idea is to balance off the needs of the army, the economy, and the government budget that has to finance the army. So, in the jargon of the economist, the problem is the allocation of the labor force between the army and the civil economy

There is also an additional objective - provide incentive for people and companies to pay taxes and minimize evasion. So, those who pay taxes are less likely, other things being equal, to be mobilized.

This policy proposal offended many people. They say it is equivalent to discrimination of the poor - those who are rich won’t serve, those who are poor will.  

While it's easy to cry foul at these, it's roughly how American Civil War military recruitment went.

The alternative - a lottery draft that gives everyone an equal chance - has also not been received well in the discussion. People say it is too arbitrary.

Vietnam War military recruitment.

The third alternative - an increase in salaries in the army so that there are volunteers - is liked by many. It keeps freedom of choice and solves the problem. Its cost however appears to be prohibitive for Ukraine at the moment given that the economy is hurt already

If their problem is lack of manpower, this won't solve the issue. Yeah, it might increase voluntary signups 1%, but I think everyone of fighting age in Ukraine that wants to fight has other than kids aging into military eligibility.

This discussion also attracted attention to two related topics: the efficiency of allocation people recruited into the military to specific positions. Many people think there are many areas for improvement

That's a good discussion to have. Whether it results in real reform is something else.

The second topic is that of whether a proportion of politicians, government officials, and others very visible people should also be forcefully mobilized and whether their rate of mobilization should be at least as high as that of the general population

Should be equal in theory in the sense of "we're all in this together".

[Open Source Intelligence]

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/ukraine-krieg-kiews-problem-mit-den-deutschen-pannen-panzern-a-cd9421ae-4a96-4d4f-983a-6205a063ae15

'Kiev's problem with the German breakdown tanks'

Spiegel did their own set of interviews on the performance of German tanks in the war and concluded that 'German tanks were created for exercises and parades, not for real combat operations' because they break much quicker and are expected in combat conditions and that attempts to repair often lead to additional damage.

I'm seriously about at the point I have as high an opinion of the German state as I do Mexico. They're rich...and nothing else. Congratulations, you're Las Vegas, or maybe Switzerland is a better comparison. And they had the audacity one time to state publicly they should have a position on the UN Security Council. No, the EU member there is France, and it's become clear by now they're the important state in the European bloc.

[jaichind]

There is also an additional objective - provide incentive for people and companies to pay taxes and minimize evasion. So, those who pay taxes are less likely, other things being equal, to be mobilized.

Why not do what the USA government did during the Civil War and have people pay a commutation fee?   Current people with economic means are bribing officials to get all sorts of exemptions.  It is better to just put that above the table so the government captures that economic surplus to be used for the war effort versus the government officials' personal gain.

[jaichind]

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/ukraine-krieg-kiews-problem-mit-den-deutschen-pannen-panzern-a-cd9421ae-4a96-4d4f-983a-6205a063ae15

'Kiev's problem with the German breakdown tanks'

Spiegel did their own set of interviews on the performance of German tanks in the war and concluded that 'German tanks were created for exercises and parades, not for real combat operations' because they break much quicker and are expected in combat conditions and that attempts to repair often lead to additional damage.

I'm seriously about at the point I have as high an opinion of the German state as I do Mexico. They're rich...and nothing else. Congratulations, you're Las Vegas, or maybe Switzerland is a better comparison. And they had the audacity one time to state publicly they should have a position on the UN Security Council. No, the EU member there is France, and it's become clear by now they're the important state in the European bloc.

Just to be clear you can make similar critiques of German Tiger tanks in WWII, maybe not as bad as Spiegel is making it out above but the Germans in WWII were incentivized by being in an existential war.  The Tiger tanks were very effective on the battlefield but broke down a lot more often and required much more effort to repair.  The per unit cast of the Tigers was pretty high as well when compared to their USA and USSR counterparts but were superior on the battlefield.

[Open Source Intelligence]

There is also an additional objective - provide incentive for people and companies to pay taxes and minimize evasion. So, those who pay taxes are less likely, other things being equal, to be mobilized.

Why not do what the USA government did during the Civil War and have people pay a commutation fee?   Current people with economic means are bribing officials to get all sorts of exemptions.  It is better to just put that above the table so the government captures that economic surplus to be used for the war effort versus the government officials' personal gain.

Speaking as a mechanical engineer, complexity makes items/vehicles in this case achieve ever higher heights, but also makes it more likely to break and repairs costly. Fuel injection for example delivers better performance in an engine compared to a carburetor, but a carburetor is zero moving parts. For reasons of cheapness and durability, you want the equivalent of carburetors on large complicated mechanical assemblies (which a tank is). Or compared performance-wise, an M-16 will always outperform an AK-47 based on precision and accuracy, but the AK-47 is a far more important weapon in warfare due to its cheapness and durability. It's why the CH-46 helicopter for the U.S. used in Korea and Vietnam was still being used into the '00s by the Marine Corps because it worked, meanwhile they couldn't figure its designated replacement the V-22 out, which performs the same role as the 46 but adds nothing compared to the 46 internally in terms of cargo space, yet costs significantly more. (The V-22 is the helicopter that takes off vertically but then the rotor wings fold down and it can fly like an airplane.)

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/ukraine-krieg-kiews-problem-mit-den-deutschen-pannen-panzern-a-cd9421ae-4a96-4d4f-983a-6205a063ae15

'Kiev's problem with the German breakdown tanks'

Spiegel did their own set of interviews on the performance of German tanks in the war and concluded that 'German tanks were created for exercises and parades, not for real combat operations' because they break much quicker and are expected in combat conditions and that attempts to repair often lead to additional damage.

I'm seriously about at the point I have as high an opinion of the German state as I do Mexico. They're rich...and nothing else. Congratulations, you're Las Vegas, or maybe Switzerland is a better comparison. And they had the audacity one time to state publicly they should have a position on the UN Security Council. No, the EU member there is France, and it's become clear by now they're the important state in the European bloc.

Tbf this isn’t a uniquely German issue, there are a unfortunate number of Bradley’s that we donated that had to stay months in Poland getting cleaned up and fixed because they weren’t in good condition and I know there has been a whole controversy around the quality of 400 Challenger 1s that Britain was working on buying back from Jordan to donate to Ukraine. Also it’s not a one side issue as there has been a bunch of horror stories on telegram from the Russia side on the quality of the shells North Korea sold to them

[UWS]

The pilot’s training is accelerating as F 16s arrived in Denmark to pursue pilot training. Belgium, Denmark, Netherlands and Norway could provide towards 60 F 16s, which will give an advantage for Ukrainians. And Denmark’s F 16s will arrive in the second trimester.

https://nouvelles-dujour.com/la-formation-des-pilotes-saccelere/
This along with Ukrainians’ successes inside the Black Sea and also imminent NATO membership of Sweden I think Emperor Palputin should be panicked

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/andriyhaydash/status/1744037737844384034
Sweet

[jaichind]

https://www.axios.com/2024/01/08/netanyahu-uae-mbz-zelensky-palestinians-unemployment

'"Ask Zelensky:" UAE rebuffs Bibi request to pay Palestinian workers barred from Israel'

The Emirati president rebuffed a request by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to pay "unemployment" stipends to Palestinian workers from the occupied West Bank whom Israel barred from entering its territory after the Oct. 7 Hamas attack, an Israeli official and a source familiar with the issue told Axios.

"Ask Zelensky for money," Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed (MBZ) sarcastically told Netanyahu, the sources said.

[jaichind]

https://westobserver.com/news/europe/the-rada-announced-the-political-death-of-zelensky/

'The Rada announced the political death of Zelensky'

Secretary of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence Roman Kostenko, in an interview with New Voice radio, said that President Vladimir Zelensky is politically dead.

In his opinion, Zelensky will definitely not be re-elected for a second term, so he can make difficult and necessary decisions for the country. The absence of election prospects should, according to the parliamentarian, help the head of state not to think about the rating and take unpopular measures.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://westobserver.com/news/europe/the-rada-announced-the-political-death-of-zelensky/

'The Rada announced the political death of Zelensky'

Secretary of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence Roman Kostenko, in an interview with New Voice radio, said that President Vladimir Zelensky is politically dead.

In his opinion, Zelensky will definitely not be re-elected for a second term, so he can make difficult and necessary decisions for the country. The absence of election prospects should, according to the parliamentarian, help the head of state not to think about the rating and take unpopular measures.

This immediately makes me suspect that Roman Kostenko has presidential ambitions.

[jaichind]

https://www.ft.com/content/e1e54f7a-246d-4dd7-8b5e-974705058e9b

"Russia batters Ukraine in biggest air strikes since new year barrage"



Collective West MSM gets the message from Ukraine and shifts their narrative away from Ukraine's success against Russian missile attacks to Russian success to pressure USA to send more anti-war systems and ammo.

Ukraine-claimed intercept rate fell to 35%.  Their claims of a 90+% intercept rate in the past were always fishy and I not not sure I believe this current number either.   I suspect this is more about pressuring the USA to get more anti-air systems/ammo over to Ukraine ASAP.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1744302340092342452

[CumbrianLefty]

Propaganda aside, it does seem that more Russian missiles are getting through.

Is this down to their becoming more effective, defences becoming less effective, or maybe both?

[jaichind]

Propaganda aside, it does seem that more Russian missiles are getting through.

Is this down to their becoming more effective, defences becoming less effective, or maybe both?

I think it has to do with the fact that over the last 2 years the Ukraine anti-air system, due to the running of ammo for the USSR-based system, has shifted from one based on USSR technology to one based on NATO technology.  I suspect the NATO technology-based system is not as effective or the Ukriarinas do not know how to operate them or both.

[Open Source Intelligence]

Propaganda aside, it does seem that more Russian missiles are getting through.

Is this down to their becoming more effective, defences becoming less effective, or maybe both?

Red Queen Theory would dictate both all other things being equal. "Takes all the running you can to stay in place. If you want to get anywhere, you have to run twice as fast." Also, standing still means going backward.

[Woody]

"Ukraine has lost 500K soldiers, 30K a month" Former Prosecutor General and now AFU member (in the front lines), Yuriy Lutsenko

According to Lutsenko, Ukraine loses tens of thousands of fighters per month, which is why the Ukrainian military proposed to mobilize half a million people.

“We must honestly say that the 500,000 that are now being talked about if divided into months, is 30 thousand a month, and then we will approximately understand what is happening at the front,” he highlighted.

https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1744373123892351301
https://twitter.com/djuric_zlatko/status/1744047646799458517

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1744796573341450535?s=12
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1744841390025027813?s=12
So the EU is now threatening to take away Hungary veto rights on Ukraine aid so Victor is now panicking and make an offer for yearly reviews of aid for the veto being dropped lol

[jaichind]

https://abcnews.go.com/International/hospital-sees-30-rise-wounded-ukrainian-soldiers-doctor/story?id=106197525

"Hospital sees 30% rise in seriously wounded Ukrainian soldiers, says doctor"

Dr. Sergii Ryzhenko told ABC News that the Mechnikov Hospital in the city of Dnipro, a few hours' drive from the fighting, is now receiving between 40 and 100 seriously wounded men each day, with his team performing between 50 and 100 surgical operations in any 24-hour period.

[Open Source Intelligence]

"Ukraine has lost 500K soldiers, 30K a month" Former Prosecutor General and now AFU member (in the front lines), Yuriy Lutsenko

According to Lutsenko, Ukraine loses tens of thousands of fighters per month, which is why the Ukrainian military proposed to mobilize half a million people.

“We must honestly say that the 500,000 that are now being talked about if divided into months, is 30 thousand a month, and then we will approximately understand what is happening at the front,” he highlighted.

https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1744373123892351301
https://twitter.com/djuric_zlatko/status/1744047646799458517

Wikipedia says the 2023 population estimate is 33.2 million. Divide by two to get males you get 16.6 million. 500k divides into that to be 1 in 33, or 3% of all the country's males. It's obviously a much higher casualty rate for the chief military ages (18 to 35) because boys and the old are not fighting.

[jaichind]

Wikipedia says the 2023 population estimate is 33.2 million. Divide by two to get males you get 16.6 million. 500k divides into that to be 1 in 33, or 3% of all the country's males. It's obviously a much higher casualty rate for the chief military ages (18 to 35) because boys and the old are not fighting.

Ukraine has not done a real census since 2001 so it is not clear what the real population of Ukraine was in early 2022.  We have some sense of the number of Ukrainians that left Ukraine for Russia and other parts of the world but not knowing the real population of Ukraine in early 2022 makes it tough to figure out what the current population in Ukraine minus the areas controlled by Russia.