Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

No matter if it ended by a ceasefire, Russia will just keep on going with escalations little by little till they conquer the whole country.

Russia's fear would be if they agree to a ceasefire and the conflict comes to a "close" the very next day a NATO fleet will show up in Odessa to create a fait accompli.  So a ceasefire will have to address such fears om both sides.  I just do not see how there can be such conditions being considered on both sides to get to such a ceasefire with guarantees against the worst fears on both sides.  The net result would be a protracted conflict going well into the future.

What's to stop a NATO fleet from showing up today if they wanted to? Nothing. Nor does one have to show up tomorrow if there's a cease-fire.

Russia may continue to poke, but the point is a significant reduction in the tempo of fighting would benefit Ukraine.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreux_Convention_Regarding_the_Regime_of_the_Straits

[Hollywood]

After reading reports and watching battle footage this last month, I think it's evident that the quality of Ukrainian Troops has severely diminished. These guys don't look like the professional army that was kicking Russian butt in 2022.  I'm seeing too many videos of them getting ambushed by enemy troops or artillery fire after getting drawn into counter-offensives.  And just like the Russians at the beginning of the conflict, I see too many vehicles getting stuck in mud traps.  Russia seems to have taken the initiative give the reports across the entire frontline, and now Ukraine is expanding the age range in order to reach the goal of 500,000 new draftees.  The losses in the Summer Offensive must have been catastrophic for the AFU.  Worst part about the offensive is that Ukraine attacked Zaporizhzhia without the necessary quantities of weaponry and ammunition, and then split their forces to assault the Russian positions near Bakhmut. 

IMO, Ukraine has got to be ready for a significant Russian Offensive, considering the massive build-up of 1.3 million Russian Troops.  Whether or not a large Weapons Package arrives, Ukraine needs to hold the Russians back long enough to build fortifications in the event of a full-scale attack.  Russia may be lacking certain weapons in abundance, but they have certainly been able to acquire and produce a massive number of drones (albeit low quality) and artillery shells. 

[jaichind]

https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/heres-how-the-russian-and-ukrainian-war-efforts-compare-in-10-charts-1cf9a74f

"Here’s How the Russian and Ukrainian War Efforts Compare, in 10 Charts"

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

After reading reports and watching battle footage this last month, I think it's evident that the quality of Ukrainian Troops has severely diminished. These guys don't look like the professional army that was kicking Russian butt in 2022.  I'm seeing too many videos of them getting ambushed by enemy troops or artillery fire after getting drawn into counter-offensives.  And just like the Russians at the beginning of the conflict, I see too many vehicles getting stuck in mud traps.  Russia seems to have taken the initiative give the reports across the entire frontline, and now Ukraine is expanding the age range in order to reach the goal of 500,000 new draftees.  The losses in the Summer Offensive must have been catastrophic for the AFU.  Worst part about the offensive is that Ukraine attacked Zaporizhzhia without the necessary quantities of weaponry and ammunition, and then split their forces to assault the Russian positions near Bakhmut. 

IMO, Ukraine has got to be ready for a significant Russian Offensive, considering the massive build-up of 1.3 million Russian Troops.  Whether or not a large Weapons Package arrives, Ukraine needs to hold the Russians back long enough to build fortifications in the event of a full-scale attack.  Russia may be lacking certain weapons in abundance, but they have certainly been able to acquire and produce a massive number of drones (albeit low quality) and artillery shells. 

Do you think the AFU have lost their best, most experienced troops due to the high casualties and have been unable to make up the difference?

[Hollywood]

After reading reports and watching battle footage this last month, I think it's evident that the quality of Ukrainian Troops has severely diminished. These guys don't look like the professional army that was kicking Russian butt in 2022.  I'm seeing too many videos of them getting ambushed by enemy troops or artillery fire after getting drawn into counter-offensives.  And just like the Russians at the beginning of the conflict, I see too many vehicles getting stuck in mud traps.  Russia seems to have taken the initiative give the reports across the entire frontline, and now Ukraine is expanding the age range in order to reach the goal of 500,000 new draftees.  The losses in the Summer Offensive must have been catastrophic for the AFU.  Worst part about the offensive is that Ukraine attacked Zaporizhzhia without the necessary quantities of weaponry and ammunition, and then split their forces to assault the Russian positions near Bakhmut. 

IMO, Ukraine has got to be ready for a significant Russian Offensive, considering the massive build-up of 1.3 million Russian Troops.  Whether or not a large Weapons Package arrives, Ukraine needs to hold the Russians back long enough to build fortifications in the event of a full-scale attack.  Russia may be lacking certain weapons in abundance, but they have certainly been able to acquire and produce a massive number of drones (albeit low quality) and artillery shells. 

Do you think the AFU have lost their best, most experienced troops due to the high casualties and have been unable to make up the difference?

I'm 100% sure they've lost a significant number of their battle-tested troops.  You can't recreate troops with 2-10 years of experience, as well as a extensive periods of military training.  It takes too much time.  Ukraine might even have trouble replacing the numbers they've lost given that the draft age was broadened. 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

After reading reports and watching battle footage this last month, I think it's evident that the quality of Ukrainian Troops has severely diminished. These guys don't look like the professional army that was kicking Russian butt in 2022.  I'm seeing too many videos of them getting ambushed by enemy troops or artillery fire after getting drawn into counter-offensives.  And just like the Russians at the beginning of the conflict, I see too many vehicles getting stuck in mud traps.  Russia seems to have taken the initiative give the reports across the entire frontline, and now Ukraine is expanding the age range in order to reach the goal of 500,000 new draftees.  The losses in the Summer Offensive must have been catastrophic for the AFU.  Worst part about the offensive is that Ukraine attacked Zaporizhzhia without the necessary quantities of weaponry and ammunition, and then split their forces to assault the Russian positions near Bakhmut. 

IMO, Ukraine has got to be ready for a significant Russian Offensive, considering the massive build-up of 1.3 million Russian Troops.  Whether or not a large Weapons Package arrives, Ukraine needs to hold the Russians back long enough to build fortifications in the event of a full-scale attack.  Russia may be lacking certain weapons in abundance, but they have certainly been able to acquire and produce a massive number of drones (albeit low quality) and artillery shells. 

Do you think the AFU have lost their best, most experienced troops due to the high casualties and have been unable to make up the difference?

I'm 100% sure they've lost a significant number of their battle-tested troops.  You can't recreate troops with 2-10 years of experience, as well as a extensive periods of military training.  It takes too much time.  Ukraine might even have trouble replacing the numbers they've lost given that the draft age was broadened. 

The AFU was a seasoned force in 2022 courtesy of the Russians. So I can see the logic here.
Those soldiers who emerged post-Feb 2022 are getting more experience and are becoming better. But have they enough time to get as seasoned? Likely, not enough. Thankfully Russia is facing similar issues, though it's probably not quite as bad.

[jaichind]

https://www.leparisien.fr/international/guerre-en-ukraine-economie-russe-tenace-mort-de-pigojine-vladimir-poutine-gagnant-de-lannee-2023-01-01-2024-R6YGXMMSMJEZVEZB4OZWH6TRBM.php

"War in Ukraine, tenacious Russian economy, death of Prigozhin… Vladimir Putin, winner of the year 2023"



Le Parisien calls 2023 the "Year of Vladimir Putin" who has time on his side.

[Hollywood]

After reading reports and watching battle footage this last month, I think it's evident that the quality of Ukrainian Troops has severely diminished. These guys don't look like the professional army that was kicking Russian butt in 2022.  I'm seeing too many videos of them getting ambushed by enemy troops or artillery fire after getting drawn into counter-offensives.  And just like the Russians at the beginning of the conflict, I see too many vehicles getting stuck in mud traps.  Russia seems to have taken the initiative give the reports across the entire frontline, and now Ukraine is expanding the age range in order to reach the goal of 500,000 new draftees.  The losses in the Summer Offensive must have been catastrophic for the AFU.  Worst part about the offensive is that Ukraine attacked Zaporizhzhia without the necessary quantities of weaponry and ammunition, and then split their forces to assault the Russian positions near Bakhmut. 

IMO, Ukraine has got to be ready for a significant Russian Offensive, considering the massive build-up of 1.3 million Russian Troops.  Whether or not a large Weapons Package arrives, Ukraine needs to hold the Russians back long enough to build fortifications in the event of a full-scale attack.  Russia may be lacking certain weapons in abundance, but they have certainly been able to acquire and produce a massive number of drones (albeit low quality) and artillery shells. 

Do you think the AFU have lost their best, most experienced troops due to the high casualties and have been unable to make up the difference?

I'm 100% sure they've lost a significant number of their battle-tested troops.  You can't recreate troops with 2-10 years of experience, as well as a extensive periods of military training.  It takes too much time.  Ukraine might even have trouble replacing the numbers they've lost given that the draft age was broadened. 

The AFU was a seasoned force in 2022 courtesy of the Russians. So I can see the logic here.
Those soldiers who emerged post-Feb 2022 are getting more experience and are becoming better. But have they enough time to get as seasoned? Likely, not enough. Thankfully Russia is facing similar issues, though it's probably not quite as bad.

There's were lot's of seasoned soldiers that were in AFU brigades since 2014-2019. The Azov Brigade that defended Mariupol comes to mind.  

Russia is dealing with a completely different problem than Ukraine.  There entire strategy this was about defending their fortified line while Ukraine attacked in order to inflict the maximum amount of casualties on Ukraine.  They would use this period to build up their manpower and weapons production.  They have a large invasion force waiting to strike from the North.  

[jaichind]

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/06/world/europe/ukraine-patriots-us.html

"Ukraine’s Patriot Defenses at Work: Shuddering Booms and Bursts of Light

The American-provided air-defense systems have helped Ukraine defend itself against Russian assaults, but Washington has warned that it will not be able to keep them supplied for"

But White House and Pentagon officials have warned that the United States will soon be unable to keep Ukraine’s Patriot batteries supplied with interceptor missiles, which can cost $2 million to $4 million apiece.

[oldtimer]

Not sure it’s been mentioned here yet, but the claims about NK sending missiles to Russia have apparently been confirmed: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-hit-ukrainian-region-with-non-russian-missiles-governor-2024-01-05/

Does not surprise me. 

After

https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20231205000300315

"S. Korea indirectly supplied more 155-mm shells for Ukraine than all European countries combined: WP"

I can see a lot closer to Russia-DPRK military cooperation in response to this and DPRK getting more advanced Russian military technology.  And yes that will also mean DPRK shifting some of their missiles to Russia.

The "industrial powerhouse "of North Korea coming to Russia's rescue is a joke and a pathetic revelation about Russia's industry.

[jaichind]

Does not surprise me. 

After

https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20231205000300315

"S. Korea indirectly supplied more 155-mm shells for Ukraine than all European countries combined: WP"

I can see a lot closer to Russia-DPRK military cooperation in response to this and DPRK getting more advanced Russian military technology.  And yes that will also mean DPRK shifting some of their missiles to Russia.

The "industrial powerhouse "of North Korea coming to Russia's rescue is a joke and a pathetic revelation about Russia's industry.

I am pretty sure the DPRK followed the old USSR doctrine of having massive reserves of older tech ammunition/missiles.  It is not a surprise DPRK has a large stockpile of such ammunition/missiles that the Russians convince them to hand some of it over to them in return for Russian military technology help.  Just a guess.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Does not surprise me. 

After

https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20231205000300315

"S. Korea indirectly supplied more 155-mm shells for Ukraine than all European countries combined: WP"

I can see a lot closer to Russia-DPRK military cooperation in response to this and DPRK getting more advanced Russian military technology.  And yes that will also mean DPRK shifting some of their missiles to Russia.

The "industrial powerhouse "of North Korea coming to Russia's rescue is a joke and a pathetic revelation about Russia's industry.

I am pretty sure the DPRK followed the old USSR doctrine of having massive reserves of older tech ammunition/missiles.  It is not a surprise DPRK has a large stockpile of such ammunition/missiles that the Russians convince them to hand some of it over to them in return for Russian military technology help.  Just a guess.

What impact could South Korea have on Ukraine's defense?

[Storr]

The crossover episode nobody wanted, Scott Ritter and Ramzan Kadyrov:

"This is surely one of the most surreal moments of the war yet

Scott Ritter has turned up in Chechnya and spoken in broken Russian (some of which I couldn’t make out) to thousands of Kadyrov’s fighters about his efforts to strengthen the "friendship between Chechnya and America""

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1743627014433587410?s=20

""Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov has posted a video of ex-UN weapons inspector (and convicted child sex offender) Scott Ritter visiting Grozny

Ritter has consistently promoted Kremlin propaganda about the invasion of Ukraine and seems to be absolutely loving his time in Chechnya"

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1743291083092541912?s=20

[jaichind]

IMO, Ukraine has got to be ready for a significant Russian Offensive, considering the massive build-up of 1.3 million Russian Troops.  Whether or not a large Weapons Package arrives, Ukraine needs to hold the Russians back long enough to build fortifications in the event of a full-scale attack.  Russia may be lacking certain weapons in abundance, but they have certainly been able to acquire and produce a massive number of drones (albeit low quality) and artillery shells. 

I am skeptical that there will be a big Russian offensive in 2024.  I think they will continue what we Chinese call 車輪戰 (Wheel Battle) where Russian units will take turns launching small attacks continuously on the front to exhaust Ukrainian energy, manpower, and critically, ammunition. 
I can see the Russians, using slow attrition attacks, target taking over the entire Donbass, in 2024.  I do not think the Russians will launch a large strike until the Ukrainians are completely exhausted which would be 2025 at the earliest.

In the age of drones and satellites, the large-scale offensive does not work as well since there can no longer be the element of surprise in a large-scale offensive.  The Russians will have to, if not already, change their old USSR deep operations doctrine from the 1930s.

[Hindsight was 2020]

The crossover episode nobody wanted, Scott Ritter and Ramzan Kadyrov:

"This is surely one of the most surreal moments of the war yet

Scott Ritter has turned up in Chechnya and spoken in broken Russian (some of which I couldn’t make out) to thousands of Kadyrov’s fighters about his efforts to strengthen the "friendship between Chechnya and America""

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1743627014433587410?s=20

""Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov has posted a video of ex-UN weapons inspector (and convicted child sex offender) Scott Ritter visiting Grozny

Ritter has consistently promoted Kremlin propaganda about the invasion of Ukraine and seems to be absolutely loving his time in Chechnya"

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1743291083092541912?s=20

Drone strike please

[jaichind]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/01/06/tired-volodymyr-zelensky-looks-too-weak-to-achieve-victory/

"Tired Zelensky looks too weak to achieve victory"



So we have gone from the reincarnation of Churchill to "too weak"?

The Russians will not accept this sort of deal.

When I was last in Kyiv, there was certainly discussion among some political leaders about the idea of a peace deal in which Russia would accept Ukrainian membership of Nato in exchange for guarantees that there would be no Ukrainian efforts to re-take occupied territory. Such talk might well be mere exasperation, but it is mana from heaven for Biden and many European leaders who want nothing more than such a peace agreement and as soon as possible.

[jaichind]

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/putins-peace-is-a-partitioned-ukraine/

"Putin’s ‘peace’ is a partitioned Ukraine"



UK's Spectator is warming up to a peace plan that allows Russia to keep the territories it has conquered.

Even if the reconquest of Kherson, Zaporozhye, Donbass and Crimea were militarily possible, would their re-incorporation into Ukraine make the country safer and more stable – or quite the opposite?

I always thought the point of those collective West MSN leaks of how Putin is open to negotiations, weather true or not, is really a tactic of pushing Ukraine to start their own talks with Russia which involves sending Ukraine the message of "if you do not start talking to the Russians, we might start to do so ourselves without out"

[jaichind]

https://www.berlingske.dk/politik/dansk-f-16-donation-bliver-flere-maaneder-forsinket-ukrainerne-er-ikke

"Danish F-16 donation will be several months delayed: the Ukrainians are not ready"

Denmark says Ukraine is not ready to handle F-16s yet so delivery will be delayed for months.

[jaichind]

https://www.ft.com/content/a477d3f1-8c7e-4520-83b0-572ad674c28e

'Military briefing: Russia has the upper hand in electronic warfare with Ukraine'

Both sides have invested heavily in systems that can neutralise each other’s drone armies, but Moscow maintains the upper hand as it had already focused on these capabilities before launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine nearly two years ago.

[Antonio the Sixth]

we really need to make a rule that you can't make more than 2 posts in the same thread in a row

[jaichind]

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/ukraine-krieg-kiews-problem-mit-den-deutschen-pannen-panzern-a-cd9421ae-4a96-4d4f-983a-6205a063ae15

'Kiev's problem with the German breakdown tanks'

Spiegel did their own set of interviews on the performance of German tanks in the war and concluded that 'German tanks were created for exercises and parades, not for real combat operations' because they break much quicker and are expected in combat conditions and that attempts to repair often lead to additional damage.

[jaichind]

https://www.bild.de/politik/inland/kolumne/alarm-spionage-drohnen-alarm-ueber-bundeswehr-stuetzpunkten-86659216.bild.html

'Drone alarm over Bundeswehr bases'

It seems for over a year there have been a bunch of drones monitoring Ukrainian Armed Forces exercises as part of their training in Germany.  Bild thinks it is the Russians.  They are probably right.

[Hindsight was 2020]

we really need to make a rule that you can't make more than 2 posts in the same thread in a row

He then proceeds to do 2 more posts in a row 🙄

[jaichind]

https://strana.today/news/454767-lutsenko-rasskazal-poteri-ukrainy-za-mesjats-na-vojne.html

'Lutsenko said that Ukraine loses 30 thousand people a month killed and seriously wounded in the war'

Ukraine media reports that the former Prosecutor General of Ukraine Yuriy Lutsenko of Trump-Biden-Ukraine fame who also then served on the front in the war says that Ukraine loses 30K people every month to KIA and seriously wounded in action.

[Storr]

A Twitter/X thread by Tymofiy Mylovanov President of the Kyiv School of Economics and former Ukrainian Minister of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture:

"Ukraine society has become polarized by mobilization. Almost no one is covering this in English speaking social media, but that’s topic # 1 in Ukraine. The implication are huge: Ukrainians will either unify even more or there will be polarization

This is what’s happening

The army has asked for 400-500K new recruits. The reason - many people mobilized in the beginning of the invasion have been serving non-stop, but they need a break, at least a rotation

There are also losses - killed and wounded, but they are much smaller than those of the Russian military and also the numbers generally believed by the public

President Zelensky, has made this number public in a press conference in the late December.

In addition to the press conferences by Zelensky and Zaluzhnyi, Ukrainian media published one idea how a draft can go and that caused a social media storm

The idea is attributed to the government, but no one admitted on record. It is that the government will mobilize whoever is needed for the army, but companies and people who provide high value and pay taxes might be fast tracked to be exempt

The idea is to balance off the needs of the army, the economy, and the government budget that has to finance the army. So, in the jargon of the economist, the problem is the allocation of the labor force between the army and the civil economy

There is also an additional objective - provide incentive for people and companies to pay taxes and minimize evasion. So, those who pay taxes are less likely, other things being equal, to be mobilized.

This policy proposal offended many people. They say it is equivalent to discrimination of the poor - those who are rich won’t serve, those who are poor will. 

The alternative - a lottery draft that gives everyone an equal chance - has also not been received well in the discussion. People say it is too arbitrary

The third alternative - an increase in salaries in the army so that there are volunteers - is liked by many. It keeps freedom of choice and solves the problem. Its cost however appears to be prohibitive for Ukraine at the moment given that the economy is hurt already

This discussion also attracted attention to two related topics: the efficiency of allocation people recruited into the military to specific positions. Many people think there are many areas for improvement

The second topic is that of whether a proportion of politicians, government officials, and others very visible people should also be forcefully mobilized and whether their rate of mobilization should be at least as high as that of the general population

Some economists have calculated how many years more people could be mobilized until the economy collapses irreversibly. There are still ways to go. Several waves of mobilization of this degree are possible. Ukraine can double or triple its military but can’t increase it 10X

But now [I believe "now" is a typo and he meant to put "none"] of this works if Ukrainian economy is not in decent shape. So, the Western financial support remains a critical element of the survival and defense of Ukraine. And at the moment there are questions how solid this support is."

https://twitter.com/Mylovanov/status/1743591462162288716?s=20