Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraines-leopard-tanks-russia-war-not-repaired-sebastian-schafer-germany-2024-1

"Ukraine's dwindling supply of Leopard 2 tanks aren't being repaired because Europe doesn't have enough spare parts, German politician says"

Only a few of the modern Leopard 2 tanks supplied by Germany to Ukraine are still being deployed in the war — largely because spare parts for repairs are lacking, according to a defense budget decision-maker in Germany's parliament.

This was the main drawback of the WWII German Tiger tanks as well: breaks down often and required a lot of expertise and spare parts to repair, often in the rear which meant a long wait time for it to be put back into action.  The Germans never change.

[jaichind]

https://www.politico.eu/article/joe-biden-united-states-foreign-policy-ukraine-israel-hamas-war-taiwan/

"Biden’s foreign policy headache in 2024"

When it comes to military support for Ukraine, the U.S. is unique. Over half of all aid to to the country has come from across the Atlantic, and Europe has neither the inventory nor the production capacity to make up for any shortfall. Ukraine would absolutely suffer the consequences of such a shortage, as its ability to hold the 1,000-kilometer front line and defend its cities against missile and drone attack vitally depends on continued American support.
In short, the Ukraine war may be lost in the first half of 2024.

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.com/sbu-blocks-surveillance-cameras-hacked-181434828.html

"SBU blocks surveillance cameras hacked by Russia to identify targets in Kyiv"

The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said it dismantled two online surveillance cameras in Kyiv that Russia had hacked and used to record the city's air defenses at work as well as the locations of critical infrastructure during a mass attack on Jan. 2.

I think this happened last year as well.  I guess the SBU did not get to plug all the gaps.

[jaichind]

https://www.ft.com/content/3ce63abc-9a71-427b-8e11-ab5309288845

"Army conscription becomes toxic issue for Ukraine’s leaders
Neither the Ukrainian president nor his top military commanders want to take responsibility for drafting reluctant fighters"



Making the same argument I made a while ago.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/25980

"Military Did Not Request that 500,000 Be Mobilized – Zaluzhny"

Zaluzhny refuses to play the role of "bad guy" and kicks the ball back to Zelensky.  It seems  Zaluzhny did say that a large number of men were needed due to needs at the front as well as likely battlefield losses but that is not the same as asking for a 500K mobilization.

In other words, everyone wants 500K mobilization but no one wants the political responsibility of actually enacting it. 

[jaichind]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/01/02/ukraine-war-2024-western-betrayal-russian-victory/

"Ukraine’s new year may end with a brutal Western betrayal
Spineless leaders are preparing to hand Putin victory"

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkey-block-uk-minehunter-ships-intended-ukraine-2024-01-02/

"Turkey to block minehunter ships intended for Ukraine"

I think doing so would violate the Montreux Convention

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkey-block-uk-minehunter-ships-intended-ukraine-2024-01-02/

"Turkey to block minehunter ships intended for Ukraine"

I think doing so would violate the Montreux Convention

Comes to show how Turkey's able to flaunt its influence over this situation.

[Open Source Intelligence]

https://www.ft.com/content/3ce63abc-9a71-427b-8e11-ab5309288845

"Army conscription becomes toxic issue for Ukraine’s leaders
Neither the Ukrainian president nor his top military commanders want to take responsibility for drafting reluctant fighters"



Making the same argument I made a while ago.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/25980

"Military Did Not Request that 500,000 Be Mobilized – Zaluzhny"

Zaluzhny refuses to play the role of "bad guy" and kicks the ball back to Zelensky.  It seems  Zaluzhny did say that a large number of men were needed due to needs at the front as well as likely battlefield losses but that is not the same as asking for a 500K mobilization.

In other words, everyone wants 500K mobilization but no one wants the political responsibility of actually enacting it.  

I guess Zelensky thinks his next election contest will be against Zaluzhny.

Technically in a situation of civilian presidential control of the military, a draft is a political decision and not a military one. Political leaders would state war aims. Military would assess and say "we need x many extra soldiers to carry out these aims". Politicians would decide whether to implement the draft to get the men. A military can communicate more requirements for men than are on offer knowing it will create a draft, but that's up to political leaders then to either adjust their war aims downward or choose to go forward and do the draft. Zelensky not wanting responsibility for draft is him deciding to be a politician instead of a leader. If you believe in the war and it's a just cause, own the draft. It's what you think is necessary in order to achieve success in your just cause.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I guess Zelensky thinks his next election contest will be against Zaluzhny.

Quite likely.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/region776/status/1742581644677231060
Welcome back heroes 🫡

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/region776/status/1742581644677231060
Welcome back heroes 🫡

This seems to be part of a UAE-arranged prison swap.  Russia got 248 servicemen in return.

[jaichind]

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/03/world/europe/ukraine-war-tv-news-telemarathon.html

"‘It’s State Propaganda’: Ukrainians Shun TV News as War Drags on"

But after nearly two years of war, Ukrainians have grown weary of Telemarathon. What was once seen as a crucial tool for holding the country together is now increasingly derided as little more than a mouthpiece for the government.
Viewers have complained that the program often paints too rosy a picture of the war, hiding worrying developments on the frontline and the West’s eroding support for Ukraine — and ultimately failing to prepare citizens for a long war.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/region776/status/1742581644677231060
Welcome back heroes 🫡

This seems to be part of a UAE-arranged prison swap.  Russia got 248 servicemen in return.

Wealthy Arab states mediating such a thing would make sense.

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.com/polish-government-not-lift-ukrainian-175532979.html

"New Polish government will not lift Ukrainian grain import ban yet"

Czesław Siekierski, the Polish Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development in Donald Tusk's government, has said that the ban on imports of Ukrainian grain to Poland will remain in place until the relevant rules are developed at EU level.

The new Polish government continues the Ukraine grain ban until it gets its pound of flesh from the EU.

[Hindsight was 2020]

“Slovakia and Hungary quietly bolster Ukraine’s defenses despite political rhetoric”

In Slovakia, the stance of the newly elected government under Fico has shifted noticeably. Before the elections, the government firmly stated, “we will never provide Ukraine with any weapons.” However, following the elections, this position has softened to a more nuanced “we will not supply the weapons that are in storage.”

In fact, the new weapons produced in Slovakia, for example, Zuzana howitzers and ammunition, can and will be in Ukraine because of existing contracts. This also applies to the agreements on joint production, if Slovakia wants to remain a reliable partner in the world defense market.

Another anti-Ukrainian government of Orban’s Hungary also rapidly ramps up defense production in cooperation with German Rheinmetall and other regional partners.

Step 1: Piss off the West through pro-Putin virtue signaling and rhetoric
Step 2: Piss off Putin by secretly continuing and even ramping up military aid to Ukraine
Step 3: ??
Step 4: Profit!

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-hackers-were-inside-ukraine-telecoms-giant-months-cyber-spy-chief-2024-01-04/

"Exclusive: Russian hackers were inside Ukraine telecoms giant for months"



It seems Russian hackers have been inside Kyivstar's system since at least May 2023

[Open Source Intelligence]

https://twitter.com/region776/status/1742581644677231060
Welcome back heroes 🫡

This seems to be part of a UAE-arranged prison swap.  Russia got 248 servicemen in return.

Still a better deal for Ukraine than a WNBA player for an arms dealer.

[jaichind]

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/russia-s-military-spending-in-2024-estimated-at-140b-report-shows/3081698

"Russia’s military spending in 2024 estimated at $140B, report shows"

Russia is set to spend 7.1% of GDP on defense in 2024.  This is lower than the Korean War and the peak stages of the Vietnam War and about where the USA was in 1970 when USA spending on the Vietnam war was dropping.  This sort of fits my narrative that from an economic point of view, Russia is fighting the Vietnam War.  Sustainable in the medium run but will cause an inflationary surge.

[Sir Mohamed]

I guess Zelensky thinks his next election contest will be against Zaluzhny.

Quite likely.

I thought Zelensky said a while he ago he wasn't going to run again, though the 2024 election will be delayed.

[jaichind]

I thought Zelensky said a while he ago he wasn't going to run again, though the 2024 election will be delayed.

I think Zelensky's wife said she does not want him to run again, Zelensky has not said anything about running for re-election or not. 

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1742956369848746402?s=12
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1742923100529078575?s=12

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Russia and Ukraine both have General Winter, but Ukraine has General Missile.

[jaichind]

https://elpais.com/internacional/2024-01-04/rusia-lanza-a-sus-soldados-zombis-contra-avdiivka-la-trinchera-mas-feroz-de-donbas.html

"Russia launches its 'zombie' soldiers against Avdiivka, the fiercest trench in Donbas"

El Pais says that the  Ukrainian forces in Avdiivka are running short of ammo.

"The 47th brigade, like many others, is on a diet of ammunition. Their arsenals are exhausted. They fight with what they have, and not always with what is best suited to hit the target," Sgt. 47th Separate Brigade Alexander.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://elpais.com/internacional/2024-01-04/rusia-lanza-a-sus-soldados-zombis-contra-avdiivka-la-trinchera-mas-feroz-de-donbas.html

"Russia launches its 'zombie' soldiers against Avdiivka, the fiercest trench in Donbas"

El Pais says that the  Ukrainian forces in Avdiivka are running short of ammo.

"The 47th brigade, like many others, is on a diet of ammunition. Their arsenals are exhausted. They fight with what they have, and not always with what is best suited to hit the target," Sgt. 47th Separate Brigade Alexander.

In the long run UA needs to bulk up its war industry. All the spirit and resolve in the world counts for nothing if you don't have enough bullets.

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-no-plan-b-unblocking-us-funding-2024-01-04/

"Ukraine says no 'plan B' to unblocking U.S. funding"

Ukraine continues its pressure tactics on USA establishment to get the next batch of money over to Ukraine.