Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Virginiá]

Novocherkassk explosion:

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1739515611162493215

And the remains:

[Hindsight was 2020]

Novocherkassk explosion:

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1739515611162493215

And the remains:

Damn that thing is done for lol. Also word going around that one of the reasons the explosion was so big was there were thousands of Shahed onboard 🤞

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Nobody's talking about new mobilization law in Ukraine. Checkpoints also already in place.

How much more manpower will this law give Ukraine?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Novocherkassk explosion:

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1739515611162493215

And the remains:

Damn that thing is done for lol. Also word going around that one of the reasons the explosion was so big was there were thousands of Shahed onboard 🤞

Ukraine seems to be relying quite a bit on missiles to get the job done here.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Nobody's talking about new mobilization law in Ukraine. Checkpoints also already in place.

How much more manpower will this law give Ukraine?

Goal is 400-500k new people from what I read and probably not unrealistic as they deliberately weren’t mobilizing younger men prior for economic reasons but with Ukraine getting further integrated into the EU and changing the mobilization law to exclude women they probably feel better the economy won’t collapse now with younger men being conscripted

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Nobody's talking about new mobilization law in Ukraine. Checkpoints also already in place.

How much more manpower will this law give Ukraine?

Goal is 400-500k new people from what I read and probably not unrealistic as they deliberately weren’t mobilizing younger men prior for economic reasons but with Ukraine getting further integrated into the EU and changing the mobilization law to exclude women they probably feel better the economy won’t collapse now with younger men being conscripted

That would make sense. I imagine the war dragging this long without Ukraine's economy completely crashing has lifted the confidence of Zelensky and Ukrainian lawmakers as to what they can feasibly do.

[bilaps]

Nobody's talking about new mobilization law in Ukraine. Checkpoints also already in place.

How much more manpower will this law give Ukraine?

There was a pretty interesting Zaluzhny's press conference today. He didn't want to talk about numbers, but numbers which were circulating in public are up to 500k. He basically said that for him there can't be middle ground in terms of military capabilty. Either you're fit, either you're unfit for serving. Which essentialy means canceling the "limited capable" category. So all those limited capable ones are going to be capables from now on. So, these are people with illnesses, bad eyesight, some sort of handicap etc.

Also, he today confirmed that they withdrew from Marinka and he gave them 2 to 3 months for withdrawal from Avdeevka.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1739752737108099554?s=12
A second boat may of gone down in that strike 👀

[Woody]

“This won’t help”: Kyiv residents divided on Ukraine military request to draft 500,000 people

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-12-26/seizing-russia-s-central-bank-funds-to-help-ukaine-is-well-meant-but-wrong

"Seizing Russia’s Central Bank Funds Is Illegal and Unwise"

USA financial establishment does not seem to be a fan of this ideal of seizing Russia assets due to clear fear that doing so would just mean more world assets move outside of their ecosystem.

[jaichind]

https://www.ft.com/content/7ef39cca-262d-4c52-8b59-1ac008ca7f56

"EU readies €20bn plan B to fund Ukraine"

This scheme would involve participating member states issuing guarantees to the EU budget, enabling the European Commission to borrow up to €20bn on capital markets for Kyiv next year, people briefed on the talks said. The precise terms are still under discussion and the final amount would be set according to Ukraine’s needs, they added.

[Hindsight was 2020]

jaichind being so upset about the frozen assets idea shows that it’s the right move to make (also lol at Andreas Kluth being the financial establishment)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.ft.com/content/7ef39cca-262d-4c52-8b59-1ac008ca7f56

"EU readies €20bn plan B to fund Ukraine"

This scheme would involve participating member states issuing guarantees to the EU budget, enabling the European Commission to borrow up to €20bn on capital markets for Kyiv next year, people briefed on the talks said. The precise terms are still under discussion and the final amount would be set according to Ukraine’s needs, they added.

This is the least bad plan. Much better than braindead ideas about trifling with property rights like this.

[jaichind]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67767246

"Ukraine military seeks extra 500,000 soldiers - President Zelensky"

At a news conference in Kyiv, he said his commanders were seeking "450,000-500,000 individuals", admitting this was a "sensitive" and costly issue.

Note how Zelensky says it is the military (read Zaluzhny), and not him, that wants to mobilize 450K-500K K which subtly makes Zaluzhny the "bad guy" but not himself.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/25980

"Military Did Not Request that 500,000 Be Mobilized – Zaluzhny"

Zaluzhny refuses to play the role of "bad guy" and kicks the ball back to Zelensky.  It seems  Zaluzhny did say that a large number of men were needed due to needs at the front as well as likely battlefield losses but that is not the same as asking for a 500K mobilization.

In other words, everyone wants 500K mobilization but no one wants the political responsibility of actually enacting it. 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67767246

"Ukraine military seeks extra 500,000 soldiers - President Zelensky"

At a news conference in Kyiv, he said his commanders were seeking "450,000-500,000 individuals", admitting this was a "sensitive" and costly issue.

Note how Zelensky says it is the military (read Zaluzhny), and not him, that wants to mobilize 450K-500K K which subtly makes Zaluzhny the "bad guy" but not himself.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/25980

"Military Did Not Request that 500,000 Be Mobilized – Zaluzhny"

Zaluzhny refuses to play the role of "bad guy" and kicks the ball back to Zelensky.  It seems  Zaluzhny did say that a large number of men were needed due to needs at the front as well as likely battlefield losses but that is not the same as asking for a 500K mobilization.

In other words, everyone wants 500K mobilization but no one wants the political responsibility of actually enacting it. 

What's the likelihood that they have major major political disagreements behind closed doors? Could Zelensky just fire Zaluzhny sometime next year?

[jaichind]

What's the likelihood that they have major major political disagreements behind closed doors? Could Zelensky just fire Zaluzhny sometime next year?

There are many reasons why getting rid of Zaluzhny is a bad idea for Zelensky
a) Keep your friends closer and enemies closer - Zaluzhny  being removed turns him into a political rival in the next election, whenever that is held
b) Lloyd Austin seems to be close to Zaluzhny  and  Lloyd Austin is not someone Zelensky would want to offend right now
c) Getting rid of Zaluzhny would also give the House GOP another reason to block aid

What the Zelensky strategy to deal with Zaluzhny would be to work around him.  The Chinese name for this political strategy is called 架空 or to make a figurehead.  Mao was a mastermind of this strategy in his intra-CCP battles over the decades.

[jaichind]

https://www.ft.com/content/925d2d15-57bf-4a1b-b010-4e009be85f5a

"Ukraine warns of pension and salary delays without western aid"

Ukraine may have to postpone pay for public servants and pension payments to millions of its citizens if the EU and US fail to deliver promised financial aid early next year, its deputy prime minister has warned.

[jaichind]

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/12/13/remarks-by-president-biden-and-president-zelenskyy-of-ukraine-in-joint-press-conference-2/

PRESIDENT BIDEN:  We want to see Ukraine win the war.  And, as I’ve said before, winning means Ukraine is a sovereign, independent nation and — that can afford to defend itself today and deter further aggression.  That’s our objective.

Note winning according to Biden no longer includes Ukraine joining NATO or any mention of Ukraine's territorial integrity. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/27/opinion/ukraine-military-aid.html

"Ukraine Doesn’t Need All Its Territory to Defeat Putin"

More shifting of goalposts on defining victory coming from the USA.

[jaichind]

https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/uk-news/2023/12/26/russia-heading-to-victory-in-ukraine-says-former-uk-senior-officer/

"Russia heading to victory in Ukraine, says former UK senior officer"

Russia is heading towards victory in Ukraine with the initiative unequivocally transferring to Moscow, one of Britain’s most senior former officers has told The National.

[jaichind]

https://kyivindependent.com/defense-ministry-certifies-first-body-armour-vest-for-female-soldiers/

"Defense Ministry approves first body armor for female soldiers"



Female Ukraine soldiers to appear at the front soon?

[jaichind]

Yulia Tymoshenko gets involved in the game of mobilization football.  She proposes sending half of all security forces to the front - from the police, prosecutor's office, BEB, and other law enforcement agencies.
https://twitter.com/TheGhost270/status/1740132425043447948

[bilaps]

It's really interesting how western media and politicans created narrative that Russian mobilization will be in fact the end of Putin, yet it seems Ukrainian mobilization is far more dangerous for Zelensky and co.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://kyivindependent.com/defense-ministry-certifies-first-body-armour-vest-for-female-soldiers/

"Defense Ministry approves first body armor for female soldiers"



Female Ukraine soldiers to appear at the front soon?

You got to do what you got to do.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.ft.com/content/925d2d15-57bf-4a1b-b010-4e009be85f5a

"Ukraine warns of pension and salary delays without western aid"

Ukraine may have to postpone pay for public servants and pension payments to millions of its citizens if the EU and US fail to deliver promised financial aid early next year, its deputy prime minister has warned.

This is reminder of Ukraine's continued poverty. Even before this war it was like the third poorest country in Europe. It has to have worsened since.

[Badger]

https://www.ft.com/content/7ef39cca-262d-4c52-8b59-1ac008ca7f56

"EU readies €20bn plan B to fund Ukraine"

This scheme would involve participating member states issuing guarantees to the EU budget, enabling the European Commission to borrow up to €20bn on capital markets for Kyiv next year, people briefed on the talks said. The precise terms are still under discussion and the final amount would be set according to Ukraine’s needs, they added.

This is the least bad plan. Much better than braindead ideas about trifling with property rights like this.

Enough about this twaddle regarding so-called property rights. If you deal drugs, in addition to potentially facing prison time and other sanctions you can have your finances confiscated. Ditto if you embezzle or do money laundering. Surely leading a war crime infested invasion of a liberal democracy for No Greater reason than "me want, me take!" Ranks up with such illegality