Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/10/29/ukraine-israel-gaza-russia-support/

"New danger for Ukraine: Taking Israel’s side in war against Hamas and Gaza"

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s immediate and forceful support for Israel in its fight against Hamas has imperiled almost a year of concerted efforts by Kyiv to win the support of Arab and Muslim nations in its war against Russia.

It’s a danger, but one I don’t think will be realised. Zelensky made one early statement of support - right after the almost universally condemned massacre and before the Israeli response kicked off in earnest. Since then, they’ve (sensibly) been quieter and more nuanced in their statements (the massacre itself didn’t demand a nuanced response).

The article acknowledges that their perspective is not receiving a lot of focus internationally. Ukraine has historically had a better stance on Palestine than most of Europe (and, arguably, better relations with a lot of MENA nations). If they lose support from the Arab world, it’s more likely to be a result of what their stronger allies do than their own actions.

[Hindsight was 2020]

What Middle East support? Iran and Syria are pro Russia, Jordan abandoned the Challenger deal, and Saudi Arabia has done nothing outside of small economic deals. Turkey is the only Middle East country that does anything for Ukraine and they aren’t going to abandon Ukraine over this as they a) want to become ingratiated into the West and b) the more Ukraine hurts Russia the better for them geopolitically

[oldtimer]

What Middle East support? Iran and Syria are pro Russia, Jordan abandoned the Challenger deal, and Saudi Arabia has done nothing outside of small economic deals. Turkey is the only Middle East country that does anything for Ukraine and they aren’t going to abandon Ukraine over this as they a) want to become ingratiated into the West and b) the more Ukraine hurts Russia the better for them geopolitically

The Turkish position is both ridiculous and envious.

They are an ally and an enemy of everyone at the same time.

They are an ally of Israel, yet they give rocket fuel to Hamas.

They are an ally of Russia, yet they arm Ukraine.

They are an ally of America, yet they armed ISIS.

They are an ally of Germany, yet they distabilise them with migrant waves.

They are a juggler at a circus.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

What Middle East support? Iran and Syria are pro Russia, Jordan abandoned the Challenger deal, and Saudi Arabia has done nothing outside of small economic deals. Turkey is the only Middle East country that does anything for Ukraine and they aren’t going to abandon Ukraine over this as they a) want to become ingratiated into the West and b) the more Ukraine hurts Russia the better for them geopolitically

But it did send (at the very least) Osa air defence missiles and the Gepard deal is either partially delivered or still in the works.

Morocco was willing to either sell or donate some T-72s.

Turkey has been prepared to go its own way many times before. Erdogan does not hesitate to play Ukraine and Russia against each other.

Pakistan is not MENA but it's worth mentioning here. I've read some speculation that it is also the source of some of the Iranian ammunition.

There are plenty of MENA nations which have been less than helpful to Ukraine - Saudi Arabia and its OPEC games come to mind, and Iran goes without saying. However, among those that have been helpful (and perhaps others), I wouldn't be surprised if there were more secret sales or donations. It isn't the lion's share of Ukraine's military aid, but it might (?) be significant, and it's more than Israel has done (or will do) for them.

There is also the possibility of nations which have been convinced not to give aid to Russia starting to climb on the Iran/Myanmar/North Korea bandwagon. If the leaks are to be believed, Egypt is the biggest danger here.

Israel has its reasons for keeping Russia close. There's little evidence to suggest these wouldn't still apply if other countries in Europe were attacked - which is why I said our governments need to be mindful of who they can and can't rely on.

[Hindsight was 2020]

A pretty sad read today in the times about Ukraine’s losses and trouble with corruption inside the recruitment process making it worse😕. Looks like Ukraine is going to have to change up tactics over the winter and going into next year along with hoping the republicans don’t f them
(Edit: also the author in question of this article has a horrible track record on covering this conflict but there is clearly some substance to these topics)
https://time.com/6329188/ukraine-volodymyr-zelensky-interview/

[bilaps]

This was the article which Ermak shared but quickly erased it.

In the meantime Russians are closing the gap around Avdeevka.

[Hindsight was 2020]

On a bright side at least Ukraine isn’t suffering from problems like this
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1718911222026846649?s=12

[jaichind]

"‘Nobody Believes in Our Victory Like I Do.’ Inside Volodymyr Zelensky’s Struggle to Keep Ukraine in the Fight"

It is only getting harder. Twenty months into the war, about a fifth of Ukraine’s territory remains under Russian occupation. Tens of thousands of soldiers and civilians have been killed, and Zelensky can feel during his travels that global interest in the war has slackened. So has the level of international support. “The scariest thing is that part of the world got used to the war in Ukraine,” he says. “Exhaustion with the war rolls along like a wave. You see it in the United States, in Europe. And we see that as soon as they start to get a little tired, it becomes like a show to them: ‘I can’t watch this rerun for the 10th time.’”

[jaichind]

Economic scoreboard.  Average investment bank surveys GDP (2022 and 2023) and CPI 2022 for key economies
 
2022 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +2.6%       +4.0%       +3.7%      +4.4%*     +5.1%         +2.8%
March      -9.6%        +3.3%      +3.6%       +4.0%*    +5.0%          +2.4%
April      -10.0%        +2.9%       +3.3%      +3.9%*    +4.9%          +2.2%
May       -10.0%        +2.8%       +2.7%      +3.8%*    +4.5%          +1.9%
June        -9.6%        +2.6%       +2.6%      +3.7%*    +4.1%          +1.8%
July         -8.4%        +2.7%       +2.1%      +3.4%*    +3.9%          +1.6%
Aug         -8.0%        +2.8%       +1.6%      +3.4%*    +3.5%          +1.5%
Sept        -6.0%        +2.9%       +1.6%      +3.5%*    +3.4%          +1.6%
Oct          -4.5%        +3.0%       +1.7%      +4.1%      +3.3%          +1.6%
Nov         -3.6%        +3.2%       +1.8%      +4.2%      +3.3%          +1.5%
Dec         -3.3%        +3.2%       +1.9%      +4.3%      +3.0%          +1.4%
Jan          -3.0%        +3.3%       +2.1%      +4.2%      +3.0%          +1.3%
Feb          -2.1%        +3.4%       +2.1%      +4.1%      +3.0%         +1.1%
Mar          -2.1%        +3.5%       +2.1%      +4.3%      +3.0%         +1.0%
April         -2.1%        +3.5%       +2.1%      +4.3%     +3.0%          +1.0%
May          -2.1%        +3.5%       +2.1%      +4.3%     +3.0%          +1.0%
************************************Adjustments made**************************
Oct           -2.1%        +3.4%       +1.9%      +4.5%     +3.0%          +1.1%
****************************   Data pretty much locked in ***********************


* - pre-adjustment. In early Oct UK adjusted its 2020 and 2021 GDP downward lowering the total GDP for both years.  The base effect of that change shifted the 2022 UK GDP growth upward.  All the 2022 GDP projections for the UK before Oct should really be something like 0.6% higher for a like-for-like comparison.

2023 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb          +2.1%      +2.5%        +2.5%       +2.1%     +5.2%        +1.7%
March       -1.5%       +2.5%       +2.3%        +1.9%     +5.2%        +1.8%
April         -0.6%       +2.4%        +2.2%       +1.7%     +5.2%        +1.8%
May          -0.6%       +2.3%        +2.1%       +1.4%     +5.2%        +1.8%
June         -1.5%       +2.1%        +2.0%       +1.2%     +5.3%        +1.8%
July          -2.5%       +1.3%        +1.3%       +0.7%     +5.2%        +1.8%
Aug          -2.7%       +0.9%        +1.1%       +0.5%     +5.2%        +1.7%
Sept         -3.0%       +0.3%        +0.9%       -0.2%      +5.1%        +1.5%
Oct           -3.0%       -0.1%         +0.5%       -0.4%      +4.9%        +1.4%
Nov          -3.0%       -0.1%         +0.5%       -0.7%      +4.9%        +1.3%
Dec          -2.7%       -0.1%         +0.3%       -1.0%      +4.8%        +1.3%
Jan           -2.9%        0.0%         +0.5%       -0.9%      +5.1%        +1.3%
Feb          -2.5%       +0.4%        +0.8%       -0.7%      +5.2%        +1.2%
Mar          -1.7%       +0.5%        +1.0%       -0.5%      +5.3%        +1.1%
April         -1.3%       +0.6%        +1.1%       -0.2%      +5.6%        +1.0%
May         -0.6%        +0.6%        +1.1%       +0.1%     +5.6%        +1.0%
June        +0.4%       +0.6%        +1.3%       +0.2%     +5.5%        +1.2%
July         +0.6%       +0.5%        +1.5%       +0.2%     +5.3%        +1.3%
Aug         +0.9%       +0.6%        +1.9%       +0.2%     +5.1%        +1.6%
Sept        +2.0%       +0.6%        +2.0%       +0.4%     +5.1%        +1.8%
Oct          +2.1%       +0.5%        +2.1%       +0.4%     +5.2%        +1.8%

2022 CPI growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +7.1%       +3.8%       +5.0%      +5.3%       +2.1%         +0.9%
March    +20.0%       +5.2%       +6.1%      +6.3%      +2.2%          +1.3%
April      +21.3%       +6.4%       +6.9%      +7.1%      +2.2%          +1.5%
May       +17.2%       +6.7%       +7.1%      +7.5%      +2.2%          +1.7%
June      +15.7%       +7.0%       +7.5%      +8.1%      +2.2%          +1.9%
July       +14.6%       +7.5%       +7.9%      +8.5%      +2.3%          +2.0%
Aug       +14.2%       +7.9%       +8.1%      +9.0%      +2.3%          +2.0%
Sept      +14.0%       +8.2%       +8.0%      +9.2%      +2.3%          +2.1%
Oct        +13.9%       +8.2%       +8.0%      +9.0%      +2.2%          +2.2%
Nov       +13.8%       +8.5%       +8.1%      +9.0%      +2.2%          +2.3%
Dec       +13.8%       +8.5%       +8.0%      +9.1%      +2.1%          +2.4%
Jan        +13.8%       +8.4%       +8.0%      +9.1%      +2.0%          +2.5%
Feb       +13.8%       +8.4%        +8.0%      +9.1%      +2.0%          +2.5%
Mar       +13.8%       +8.4%        +8.0%      +9.1%      +2.0%          +2.5%
April      +13.8%       +8.4%        +8.0%      +9.1%       +2.0%          +2.5%
May      +13.8%       +8.4%        +8.0%      +9.1%       +2.0%          +2.5%
****************************   Data pretty much locked in ***********************

The 2022 GDP had some adjustments.  USA and Eurozone had adjustments downwards while UK and Japan had adjustments upwards.

Russia USA PRC for 2023 GDP had a slight upgrade while the Eurozone had a slight downgrade.
 
Once you take into account that 2021 UK GDP growth got marked down by 0.6% and 2021 Russia GDP growth got marked up by 0.9% one can then construct a total cumulative 2022-2023 GDP loss based on current consensus/result vs. 2022 Feb consensus as a percentage of 2021 GDP

(change from Sept 2023 calculation)
Russia      -4.0% (+0.1%)
Eurozone  -2.7% (-0.2%)
USA         -2.3% (-0.1%)
UK           -2.3% (+0.2%)
PRC          -2.1% (+0.1)
Japan       -1.6% (+0.1%)

With Russia's 2023 GDP most likely going to rise to 2.5% the overall impact in relative terms for Russia since the war is beginning to look not that different from the collective West.  The rise in energy prices plays a big role in this and could reverse itself when the USA sees a likely recession in 2024 which will push down energy prices.

[bilaps]

First Leopard tank destroyed at Avdeevka.

https://twitter.com/GeromanAT/status/1719293408274001966

There's video on telegram.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Happy Halloween 🎃. Russia is at 300k causalities and UA took back that stupid trash heap in Avdiivka lol
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1719234557361176743?s=12
https://twitter.com/200__zoka/status/1719289360372097434?s=12

[bilaps]

All legitimate sources for sure.

[Hindsight was 2020]

All information I don’t like is bias and fake!-poster who cites hack pro-Russian sources

[CumbrianLefty]

How many times has that "trash heap" changed hands now?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Russia has adapted to the ATACMS strike by pulling out of at least one of the two bases hit.

https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1718787300300091866

This was probably the best move left available to them, but will make it at least somewhat harder to use their helicopters to full effect.

[bilaps]

All information I don’t like is bias and fake!-poster who cites hack pro-Russian sources

No, your last "information" about alleged hill was proven wrong. So, why would someone beleive these claims without a shred of evidence? I shared videos or pictures, it really doesn't matter whether they were posted by Russian sources or pro Russian because there are pictures and videos, not just text claims.

I explained this so many times, yet you fail to understand common sense.

[bilaps]

How many times has that "trash heap" changed hands now?

We could never know. It's very possible however that it only changed hands once. Russians took it at some point and still hold it. Can't be 100% sure but not anything I saw is convincing me the other way.

[Hindsight was 2020]

All information I don’t like is bias and fake!-poster who cites hack pro-Russian sources

No, your last "information" about alleged hill was proven wrong. So, why would someone beleive these claims without a shred of evidence? I shared videos or pictures, it really doesn't matter whether they were posted by Russian sources or pro Russian because there are pictures and videos, not just text claims.

I explained this so many times, yet you fail to understand common sense.

Sauce? Also videos aren’t solid proof when the people you’re citing have been caught in the past falsely using old videos or videos geolocated to not be where they said it was to falsely use as proof of Russian gains and UA losses

[bilaps]

All information I don’t like is bias and fake!-poster who cites hack pro-Russian sources

No, your last "information" about alleged hill was proven wrong. So, why would someone beleive these claims without a shred of evidence? I shared videos or pictures, it really doesn't matter whether they were posted by Russian sources or pro Russian because there are pictures and videos, not just text claims.

I explained this so many times, yet you fail to understand common sense.

Sauce? Also videos aren’t solid proof when the people you’re citing have been caught in the past falsely using old videos or videos geolocated to not be where they said it was to falsely use as proof of Russian gains and UA losses

You claimed that the drone video targeting the flag pole on the hill is a confirmation that Russians didn't take the hill. Then, you claimed that maps from pro Ukrainian sources still have the hill under UA control. Only in the next few days when they eventually came around to the loss, you said they withdrew that night. Of course, nobody is going to admit they were wrong and probably they lost it couple days prior to that.

But, you need to accept one thing for your own good. If a video comes out of Russians destroying Leopard tank, or Russians taking control of some hill or a town it is going to come out from Russian army units or from Russian TG channels which are wait for it, pro Russian. That video is not going to come out of Zelensky's presidential office twitter account.

Today, some pro Russian channels are claiming that Russians are storming the coke plant and many people are sharing it on twitter. Yet, I see no reputable channel which I believe that supports that claim or I see any video evidence of such claim, so I don't post it or spread it. You, otoh, are posting claims by Ukrainian MOD which are greatly exaggarated and some guy on a twitter without any evidence in video. That's the difference. 

[Hindsight was 2020]

All information I don’t like is bias and fake!-poster who cites hack pro-Russian sources

No, your last "information" about alleged hill was proven wrong. So, why would someone beleive these claims without a shred of evidence? I shared videos or pictures, it really doesn't matter whether they were posted by Russian sources or pro Russian because there are pictures and videos, not just text claims.

I explained this so many times, yet you fail to understand common sense.

Sauce? Also videos aren’t solid proof when the people you’re citing have been caught in the past falsely using old videos or videos geolocated to not be where they said it was to falsely use as proof of Russian gains and UA losses

You claimed that the drone video targeting the flag pole on the hill is a confirmation that Russians didn't take the hill. Then, you claimed that maps from pro Ukrainian sources still have the hill under UA control. Only in the next few days when they eventually came around to the loss, you said they withdrew that night. Of course, nobody is going to admit they were wrong and probably they lost it couple days prior to that.

But, you need to accept one thing for your own good. If a video comes out of Russians destroying Leopard tank, or Russians taking control of some hill or a town it is going to come out from Russian army units or from Russian TG channels which are wait for it, pro Russian. That video is not going to come out of Zelensky's presidential office twitter account.

Today, some pro Russian channels are claiming that Russians are storming the coke plant and many people are sharing it on twitter. Yet, I see no reputable channel which I believe that supports that claim or I see any video evidence of such claim, so I don't post it or spread it. You, otoh, are posting claims by Ukrainian MOD which are greatly exaggarated and some guy on a twitter without any evidence in video. That's the difference. 

Im aware of this fact my problem is you constantly attacking me and others for being bias when you do nothing but post bias pro-Russia news that have less credibility than the sources I normally cite.

[bilaps]

All information I don’t like is bias and fake!-poster who cites hack pro-Russian sources

No, your last "information" about alleged hill was proven wrong. So, why would someone beleive these claims without a shred of evidence? I shared videos or pictures, it really doesn't matter whether they were posted by Russian sources or pro Russian because there are pictures and videos, not just text claims.

I explained this so many times, yet you fail to understand common sense.

Sauce? Also videos aren’t solid proof when the people you’re citing have been caught in the past falsely using old videos or videos geolocated to not be where they said it was to falsely use as proof of Russian gains and UA losses

You claimed that the drone video targeting the flag pole on the hill is a confirmation that Russians didn't take the hill. Then, you claimed that maps from pro Ukrainian sources still have the hill under UA control. Only in the next few days when they eventually came around to the loss, you said they withdrew that night. Of course, nobody is going to admit they were wrong and probably they lost it couple days prior to that.

But, you need to accept one thing for your own good. If a video comes out of Russians destroying Leopard tank, or Russians taking control of some hill or a town it is going to come out from Russian army units or from Russian TG channels which are wait for it, pro Russian. That video is not going to come out of Zelensky's presidential office twitter account.

Today, some pro Russian channels are claiming that Russians are storming the coke plant and many people are sharing it on twitter. Yet, I see no reputable channel which I believe that supports that claim or I see any video evidence of such claim, so I don't post it or spread it. You, otoh, are posting claims by Ukrainian MOD which are greatly exaggarated and some guy on a twitter without any evidence in video. That's the difference.  

Im aware of this fact my problem is you constantly attacking me and others for being bias when you do nothing but post bias pro-Russia news that have less credibility than the sources I normally cite.

For example? What did I quote that wasn't true?

[Hindsight was 2020]

All information I don’t like is bias and fake!-poster who cites hack pro-Russian sources

No, your last "information" about alleged hill was proven wrong. So, why would someone beleive these claims without a shred of evidence? I shared videos or pictures, it really doesn't matter whether they were posted by Russian sources or pro Russian because there are pictures and videos, not just text claims.

I explained this so many times, yet you fail to understand common sense.

Sauce? Also videos aren’t solid proof when the people you’re citing have been caught in the past falsely using old videos or videos geolocated to not be where they said it was to falsely use as proof of Russian gains and UA losses

You claimed that the drone video targeting the flag pole on the hill is a confirmation that Russians didn't take the hill. Then, you claimed that maps from pro Ukrainian sources still have the hill under UA control. Only in the next few days when they eventually came around to the loss, you said they withdrew that night. Of course, nobody is going to admit they were wrong and probably they lost it couple days prior to that.

But, you need to accept one thing for your own good. If a video comes out of Russians destroying Leopard tank, or Russians taking control of some hill or a town it is going to come out from Russian army units or from Russian TG channels which are wait for it, pro Russian. That video is not going to come out of Zelensky's presidential office twitter account.

Today, some pro Russian channels are claiming that Russians are storming the coke plant and many people are sharing it on twitter. Yet, I see no reputable channel which I believe that supports that claim or I see any video evidence of such claim, so I don't post it or spread it. You, otoh, are posting claims by Ukrainian MOD which are greatly exaggarated and some guy on a twitter without any evidence in video. That's the difference.  

Im aware of this fact my problem is you constantly attacking me and others for being bias when you do nothing but post bias pro-Russia news that have less credibility than the sources I normally cite.

For example? What did I quote that wasn't true?

Attacking Deepstate as a bias source and then citing Suriyakmaps who had to backtrack half of the Avdiivka advances they reported comes to mind

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

A fuller investigation of North Korean ammunition shipments to Russia by Tatarigami_UA: https://frontelligence.substack.com/p/counting-the-rounds-north-korean

There is similar work available in the public domain from RUSI, and others. This piece estimates that, over the last 60 days or so, Russia has received about half a million artillery shells from NK.

Of the few shells which have been dated publicly, the only production dates available appear to be the 2000-2010 period, but these could be refurbishment dates and NK-produced ammunition quality has been known to be pretty crap. Still, the number of shells sent matches the number reportedly lent by SK to free up US stocks for Ukraine (some diplomatic pressure should probably be applied here), and there's no reason to think it won't rise at least a little bit. Even if NK production rates are anemic (likely) and they have no more surplus (I doubt this part), what has been sent may be enough to see off the rest of the counteroffensive and support Russian operations around Avdiivka.

[Hindsight was 2020]

A fuller investigation of North Korean ammunition shipments to Russia by Tatarigami_UA: https://frontelligence.substack.com/p/counting-the-rounds-north-korean

There is similar work available in the public domain from RUSI, and others. This piece estimates that, over the last 60 days or so, Russia has received about half a million artillery shells from NK.

Of the few shells which have been dated publicly, the only production dates available appear to be the 2000-2010 period, but these could be refurbishment dates and NK-produced ammunition quality has been known to be pretty crap. Still, this matches the number of shells sent matches the number reportedly lent by SK to free up US stocks for Ukraine (some diplomatic pressure should probably be applied here), and there's no reason to think it won't rise at least a little bit. Even if NK production rates are anemic (likely) and they have no more surplus (I doubt this part), what has been sent may be enough to see off the rest of the counteroffensive and support Russian operations around Avdiivka.

Thanks for the read

[bilaps]

All information I don’t like is bias and fake!-poster who cites hack pro-Russian sources

No, your last "information" about alleged hill was proven wrong. So, why would someone beleive these claims without a shred of evidence? I shared videos or pictures, it really doesn't matter whether they were posted by Russian sources or pro Russian because there are pictures and videos, not just text claims.

I explained this so many times, yet you fail to understand common sense.

Sauce? Also videos aren’t solid proof when the people you’re citing have been caught in the past falsely using old videos or videos geolocated to not be where they said it was to falsely use as proof of Russian gains and UA losses

You claimed that the drone video targeting the flag pole on the hill is a confirmation that Russians didn't take the hill. Then, you claimed that maps from pro Ukrainian sources still have the hill under UA control. Only in the next few days when they eventually came around to the loss, you said they withdrew that night. Of course, nobody is going to admit they were wrong and probably they lost it couple days prior to that.

But, you need to accept one thing for your own good. If a video comes out of Russians destroying Leopard tank, or Russians taking control of some hill or a town it is going to come out from Russian army units or from Russian TG channels which are wait for it, pro Russian. That video is not going to come out of Zelensky's presidential office twitter account.

Today, some pro Russian channels are claiming that Russians are storming the coke plant and many people are sharing it on twitter. Yet, I see no reputable channel which I believe that supports that claim or I see any video evidence of such claim, so I don't post it or spread it. You, otoh, are posting claims by Ukrainian MOD which are greatly exaggarated and some guy on a twitter without any evidence in video. That's the difference.  

Im aware of this fact my problem is you constantly attacking me and others for being bias when you do nothing but post bias pro-Russia news that have less credibility than the sources I normally cite.

For example? What did I quote that wasn't true?

Attacking Deepstate as a bias source and then citing Suriyakmaps who had to backtrack half of the Avdiivka advances they reported comes to mind

You really don't understand or you're playing dumb. I asked for a quote that WASN'T true. Particular quote.

In this case Suriyak was right, deepstate was just late.