Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Red Velvet]

I recently heard about this weird but fun theory that tries to explain how power and mentality in different societies work through this constant division between 3 groups of power.

- The Warrior
- The Merchant
- The Sage

In each society you would have a dominant power that defines the purpose and main goals of the society, assuming power with the assistance of the secondary power, which exists more as a means toll to ensure the goals of the dominant power. Together, these two (Dominant and Secondary powers) subjugate and repress the Third Group, whose goals end up seen as a threat for the dominance of the two main groups who define what the national identity means.

The US is obviously mainly a Merchant society (more like a corporation tbh), sustained by the Warrior group. The military power exists as a means to ensure the economic advantage and profits over competitors. The Sage are repressed.

China is a Sage society, sustained by the Merchant group. Commerce and Trade exist as a means to sustain the ideological concepts and goals of the intelectual communist elites. The Warrior are repressed.

While Russia is a Warrior society, sustained by the Sage group. The intelectual concepts are used as a mean to ensure the Warrior (military) dominance. The Merchant are repressed and the ones who see the consequences of the Warrior-Sage alliance.

That means, it’s possible to notice where each society “weakness” is based on the group that’s repressed, as they’re the ones capable of creating a dissonance within the established order in order to create some sort of break. But for that, you depend on creating a break within the two groups in power.

Usually more liberal societies are defined by the Merchant group dominance, regardless of who is the supporting power. Whenever this group isn’t the main dominant, societies tend to become more closed.

The sanctions on Russia had this hope of targeting Merchant group in hopes of stimulating an upheaval against Putin, but Russian history has always been one of the Sage-Warrior taking turns as the dominant power, while the Merchant have always been repressed.

In USSR days you had the Sage group as the dominant one with the Warrior as a secondary, which was a break with Russian Empire days when Warrior dominated and Sage supported it, logic that has only returned post the fall of USSR.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/06/world/europe/putins-forever-war.html

This is a depressing article with some very compelling images (the NYT is really good at that these days, the grey lady no more), about Putin being in the war for the long haul, seamlessly insulating the elites in Moscow from it all*, while using the impoverished men from the hinterlands, by offering them contract wages at 5 times the rate of their otherwise paltry wages of $500 a month.

*There is an image of a chic area in Moscow where the ambiance and sartorial presentation of its denizens would fit right in with the hippest and richest zip codes of NYC, bracketed against another of a city in the hinterlands (the cannon fodder supply zone) that could be mistaken for a third world hell hole.

Another depressing statement is that the 200,000 dead from the war are about equally divided between the two sides, per estimates from American diplomats in Moscow. Ouch.

Putin was passive when the Wagnerites moved on Moscow because he feared his guys would refuse to fire on them if ordered to do so.

The article has images of scenes in Moscow where the ambiance and sartorial presentation would fit right in with the hippest and richest precincts of NYC, and other images that look like some urban hell hole in the third world.

Here are some snippits of interest (culled down to the 200 word copyright quota - I always do a word count on Word and so should you),  the most arresting being the news that Europe is helping to finance Putin’s war by buying refined oil from India. I did not know that. Does Biden know that?

Sitting at a cafe overlooking the Patriarch’s Ponds in one of the toniest areas of central Moscow, Pyotr Tolstoy, a deputy chairman of the State Duma and a direct descendant of the great novelist Leo Tolstoy, exuded confidence as a moneyed crowd ate large crab claws and other delicacies.

When I asked him how Russia proposed to pay for a prolonged war effort, he shot back: “We pay for it all from our sales of oil to Europe via India.”

This was bravado, but it had some truth to it. Russia has rapidly adjusted to the loss of European markets with oil sales to Asia — and India has sold some of it on to Europe in refined form.

“Our values are different,” Mr. Tolstoy said. “For Russians, freedom and economic factors are secondary to the integrity of our state and the safeguarding of the Russian world.”

The Kremlinology of the Cold War has been replaced by the equally arduous pursuit of trying to penetrate the utter opacity of the Kremlin to read the mind of a new czar, Mr. Putin, now in the autumn of his rule.

That's a good article.
Only thing I see it fit to add at the moment would be that one could jokingly say there are four regions of Russia. Moscow. Saint Petersburg. The North Caucusus. And the countryside.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I recently heard about this weird but fun theory that tries to explain how power and mentality in different societies work through this constant division between 3 groups of power.

- The Warrior
- The Merchant
- The Sage

In each society you would have a dominant power that defines the purpose and main goals of the society, assuming power with the assistance of the secondary power, which exists more as a means toll to ensure the goals of the dominant power. Together, these two (Dominant and Secondary powers) subjugate and repress the Third Group, whose goals end up seen as a threat for the dominance of the two main groups who define what the national identity means.

The US is obviously mainly a Merchant society (more like a corporation tbh), sustained by the Warrior group. The military power exists as a means to ensure the economic advantage and profits over competitors. The Sage are repressed.

China is a Sage society, sustained by the Merchant group. Commerce and Trade exist as a means to sustain the ideological concepts and goals of the intelectual communist elites. The Warrior are repressed.

While Russia is a Warrior society, sustained by the Sage group. The intelectual concepts are used as a mean to ensure the Warrior (military) dominance. The Merchant are repressed and the ones who see the consequences of the Warrior-Sage alliance.

That means, it’s possible to notice where each society “weakness” is based on the group that’s repressed, as they’re the ones capable of creating a dissonance within the established order in order to create some sort of break. But for that, you depend on creating a break within the two groups in power.

Usually more liberal societies are defined by the Merchant group dominance, regardless of who is the supporting power. Whenever this group isn’t the main dominant, societies tend to become more closed.

The sanctions on Russia had this hope of targeting Merchant group in hopes of stimulating an upheaval against Putin, but Russian history has always been one of the Sage-Warrior taking turns as the dominant power, while the Merchant have always been repressed.

In USSR days you had the Sage group as the dominant one with the Warrior as a secondary, which was a break with Russian Empire days when Warrior dominated and Sage supported it, logic that has only returned post the fall of USSR.

There does seem to be quite a bit of truth to this thesis on some level. Though this sort of stuff is far from constant. America's Yankee trader background has a very long shadow in it, though balanced out by "Warrior" groups (see: the South).

I agree that America is fundamentally a Merchant society, that has both upsides and downsides. It's why we have the best private healthcare in the world, and (a bit of the part why) we might overestimate the effectiveness of Russia sanctions.

Good thing our government bureaucracy has a decent understanding of what works and doesn't. And their effectiveness in this is a major part of why America is still a global power today.

[Person Man]

I recently heard about this weird but fun theory that tries to explain how power and mentality in different societies work through this constant division between 3 groups of power.

- The Warrior
- The Merchant
- The Sage

In each society you would have a dominant power that defines the purpose and main goals of the society, assuming power with the assistance of the secondary power, which exists more as a means toll to ensure the goals of the dominant power. Together, these two (Dominant and Secondary powers) subjugate and repress the Third Group, whose goals end up seen as a threat for the dominance of the two main groups who define what the national identity means.

The US is obviously mainly a Merchant society (more like a corporation tbh), sustained by the Warrior group. The military power exists as a means to ensure the economic advantage and profits over competitors. The Sage are repressed.

China is a Sage society, sustained by the Merchant group. Commerce and Trade exist as a means to sustain the ideological concepts and goals of the intelectual communist elites. The Warrior are repressed.

While Russia is a Warrior society, sustained by the Sage group. The intelectual concepts are used as a mean to ensure the Warrior (military) dominance. The Merchant are repressed and the ones who see the consequences of the Warrior-Sage alliance.

That means, it’s possible to notice where each society “weakness” is based on the group that’s repressed, as they’re the ones capable of creating a dissonance within the established order in order to create some sort of break. But for that, you depend on creating a break within the two groups in power.

Usually more liberal societies are defined by the Merchant group dominance, regardless of who is the supporting power. Whenever this group isn’t the main dominant, societies tend to become more closed.

The sanctions on Russia had this hope of targeting Merchant group in hopes of stimulating an upheaval against Putin, but Russian history has always been one of the Sage-Warrior taking turns as the dominant power, while the Merchant have always been repressed.

In USSR days you had the Sage group as the dominant one with the Warrior as a secondary, which was a break with Russian Empire days when Warrior dominated and Sage supported it, logic that has only returned post the fall of USSR.

There does seem to be quite a bit of truth to this thesis on some level. Though this sort of stuff is far from constant. America's Yankee trader background has a very long shadow in it, though balanced out by "Warrior" groups (see: the South).

I agree that America is fundamentally a Merchant society, that has both upsides and downsides. It's why we have the best private healthcare in the world, and (a bit of the part why) we might overestimate the effectiveness of Russia sanctions.

Good thing our government bureaucracy has a decent understanding of what works and doesn't. And their effectiveness in this is a major part of why America is still a global power today.

So I guess the reason Russia fell was because they were not able to sustain their empire, America will decline once there are others who can outcompete them technologically, and China will probably be limited once it becomes apparent they can’t win wars.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I recently heard about this weird but fun theory that tries to explain how power and mentality in different societies work through this constant division between 3 groups of power.

- The Warrior
- The Merchant
- The Sage

In each society you would have a dominant power that defines the purpose and main goals of the society, assuming power with the assistance of the secondary power, which exists more as a means toll to ensure the goals of the dominant power. Together, these two (Dominant and Secondary powers) subjugate and repress the Third Group, whose goals end up seen as a threat for the dominance of the two main groups who define what the national identity means.

The US is obviously mainly a Merchant society (more like a corporation tbh), sustained by the Warrior group. The military power exists as a means to ensure the economic advantage and profits over competitors. The Sage are repressed.

China is a Sage society, sustained by the Merchant group. Commerce and Trade exist as a means to sustain the ideological concepts and goals of the intelectual communist elites. The Warrior are repressed.

While Russia is a Warrior society, sustained by the Sage group. The intelectual concepts are used as a mean to ensure the Warrior (military) dominance. The Merchant are repressed and the ones who see the consequences of the Warrior-Sage alliance.

That means, it’s possible to notice where each society “weakness” is based on the group that’s repressed, as they’re the ones capable of creating a dissonance within the established order in order to create some sort of break. But for that, you depend on creating a break within the two groups in power.

Usually more liberal societies are defined by the Merchant group dominance, regardless of who is the supporting power. Whenever this group isn’t the main dominant, societies tend to become more closed.

The sanctions on Russia had this hope of targeting Merchant group in hopes of stimulating an upheaval against Putin, but Russian history has always been one of the Sage-Warrior taking turns as the dominant power, while the Merchant have always been repressed.

In USSR days you had the Sage group as the dominant one with the Warrior as a secondary, which was a break with Russian Empire days when Warrior dominated and Sage supported it, logic that has only returned post the fall of USSR.

There does seem to be quite a bit of truth to this thesis on some level. Though this sort of stuff is far from constant. America's Yankee trader background has a very long shadow in it, though balanced out by "Warrior" groups (see: the South).

I agree that America is fundamentally a Merchant society, that has both upsides and downsides. It's why we have the best private healthcare in the world, and (a bit of the part why) we might overestimate the effectiveness of Russia sanctions.

Good thing our government bureaucracy has a decent understanding of what works and doesn't. And their effectiveness in this is a major part of why America is still a global power today.

So I guess the reason Russia fell was because they were not able to sustain their empire, America will decline once there are others who can outcompete them technologically, and China will probably be limited once it becomes apparent they can’t win wars.

There are limits to this (hence my wording "on some level"), I'm not comfortable extrapolating that far. But it's something to consider insofar as to what countries prioritize, and yes, we do protect our mercantile interests (just ask the Japanese if we take No for an answer, we forced them to open in 1853 and American commercial interests were a major reason for us busting their empire-building in China). That being said, if America is bad at, well, merchant-ing or becomes such, or misses out, then we might in for a world of hurt in regards to our overseas interests and that would be bound to richochet back at home, with probably bad domestic consequences.

In any case, the most successful countries (such as America) generally pull from all three. A society without merchants can't make money, a society without warriors can't defend itself, and a society without sages risks getting too sclerotic intellectually and losing out in the great philosophical developments of the age.

In America, business effectively controls the state, while the opposite is true in China. In Japan they met halfway!

[Torie]

Is prudent risk management (now more important than ever given global interdependence), more a function of the merchantile or the sage?  What will happen if the US suddenly (and sometimes these things happen suddenly and without much warning) can't borrow any more money (further increase its debt balances) and ceases to be back-stopped by having the world's reserve currency?

Prudent risk management is job one in my world view, which perhaps is what makes me an establishment type more than anything else.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is prudent risk management (now more important than ever given global interdependence), more a function of the merchantile or the sage?  What will happen if the US suddenly (and sometimes these things happen suddenly and without much warning) can't borrow any more money (further increase its debt balances) and ceases to be back-stopped by having the world's reserve currency?

Prudent risk management is job one in my world view, which perhaps is what makes me an establishment type more than anything else.

Probably uncategorizable in this framework, given how it and its consequences cut across all three "groups". Alternatively, it falls under whatever group you place the bureaucracy in.

[Person Man]

Is prudent risk management (now more important than ever given global interdependence), more a function of the merchantile or the sage?  What will happen if the US suddenly (and sometimes these things happen suddenly and without much warning) can't borrow any more money (further increase its debt balances) and ceases to be back-stopped by having the world's reserve currency?

Prudent risk management is job one in my world view, which perhaps is what makes me an establishment type more than anything else.

Probably uncategorizable in this framework, given how it and its consequences cut across all three "groups". Alternatively, it falls under whatever group you place the bureaucracy in.

Whoever is “the deep state”, I guess. Maybe the sages?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is prudent risk management (now more important than ever given global interdependence), more a function of the merchantile or the sage?  What will happen if the US suddenly (and sometimes these things happen suddenly and without much warning) can't borrow any more money (further increase its debt balances) and ceases to be back-stopped by having the world's reserve currency?

Prudent risk management is job one in my world view, which perhaps is what makes me an establishment type more than anything else.

Probably uncategorizable in this framework, given how it and its consequences cut across all three "groups". Alternatively, it falls under whatever group you place the bureaucracy in.

Whoever is “the deep state”, I guess. Maybe the sages?

If it has to be any single group, it would be them.

[Red Velvet]

So I guess the reason Russia fell was because they were not able to sustain their empire, America will decline once there are others who can outcompete them technologically, and China will probably be limited once it becomes apparent they can’t win wars.

That’s mistaking the purpose of the divisions IMO. It’s more useful to understand what different nations prioritize most as their goals.

Because most people here are western and liberal (which correlate to Merchant nations), there’s often an incorrect reading of countries that don’t have the same goals and priorities as them.

For example, it was always clear that economic sanctions is a toll that represses economic trade, which are more unstable exactly towards the Merchant nations that are applying them as their main purpose is trade and wealth accumulation. That’s what they prioritize, but not necessarily it’s what the countries they are targeting care more about.

Therefore, it’s not surprising that the economic limitations had the opposite effect as the one intended. There’s a low understanding of countries like Russia and China, as if they necessarily had the same goals as Western ones, which are economically driven.

In China, the Merchants are a secondary power, which means they don’t exist as a goal itself but as a tool of achieving the goals of the dominant group: The Sage. Since the Merchants are one of the two powers in control, it’s natural that China emerges as an economic competitor to the West but it’s misguided to attribute this economic growth as their goals like they are yours.

In Russia, Merchants have always been the repressed power since forever, subjected to the will of the dominant power of the time, be it the Warrior (current) or the Sage (USSR). The latter two are allied and shift turns as the dominant one whenever a system-break event happens. Merchants had at most some minor emergence in the 90s before being put back in the box again.

Which means, there’s a misconception in its very principle, the belief that you can hurt Russia through economic repression of the merchants. If anything, that works more as internal validation for the dominant power, the warrior, to justify their own importance internally, aided by the sage.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Which means, there’s a misconception in its very principle, the belief that you can hurt Russia through economic repression of the merchants. If anything, that works more as internal validation for the dominant power, the warrior, to justify their own importance internally, aided by the sage.

This would not be the first time that such a misunderstanding has had an influence on US policy. You could argue that America's partially Merchant-driven China policy was predicated on the idea that open markets would mean China would get like America in its attitudes (after all, we were allies with them in the Cold War). That did not pan out.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/berlin_bridge/status/1688095623000547328?s=20

[Storr]

A significant moment for Ukraine:

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1688091917572034560?s=20

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1688045440699109376?s=20

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/berlin_bridge/status/1688095623000547328?s=20

One huge issue that would have to be solved before Ukraine could get EU membership is the funding formula. States get funds based off how much agricultural land they have and how poor they are. (Relatively) dirt poor Ukraine would make every other state in the EU a net loser under EU funding formulas.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/berlin_bridge/status/1688095623000547328?s=20

One huge issue that would have to be solved before Ukraine could get EU membership is the funding formula. States get funds based off how much agricultural land they have and how poor they are. (Relatively) dirt poor Ukraine would make every other state in the EU a net loser under EU funding formulas.

Indeed. In addition, the only country the EU has added since 1989 that's as populous as Ukraine (or larger) is Poland. Even if Ukraine's post-war population is 25 million, that would still hold true. It seems likely that the most influential EU countries (France and Germany) will be very wary of adding a country with such a large and poor (for European standards) population.

It's one thing if you add Albania or North Macedonia to the EU, with their small populations. Even with their relatively low costs based on the existing EU funding formula, those countries have faced an agonizingly slow EU accession process. It's a whole different level of financial commitment when it's a country like Ukraine.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/berlin_bridge/status/1688095623000547328?s=20

One huge issue that would have to be solved before Ukraine could get EU membership is the funding formula. States get funds based off how much agricultural land they have and how poor they are. (Relatively) dirt poor Ukraine would make every other state in the EU a net loser under EU funding formulas.

Indeed. In addition, the only country the EU has added since 1989 that's as populous as Ukraine (or larger) is Poland. Even if Ukraine's post-war population is 25 million, that would still hold true. It seems likely that the most influential EU countries (France and Germany) will be very wary of adding a country with such a large and poor (for European standards) population.

It's one thing if you add Albania or North Macedonia to the EU, with their small populations. Even with their relatively low costs based on the existing EU funding formula, those countries have faced an agonizingly slow EU accession process. It's a whole different level of financial commitment when it's a country like Ukraine.

The single biggest hurdle might well be dynamics within the bloc, as you can change funding formulas but you cannot easily change geography and culture. Ukraine and Poland are very close. Poland has been the foremost supporter of Ukraine in Europe (even back in the 90s) and has sought to separate it from Russia for decades; for Ukraine to enter the EU further empowers Poland, which is something that neither France nor Germany would prefer if they had a choice in the matter. It's not as acute a problem as Turkish entry, but it's still something that could be a pretty big problem on a foundational level for things that would help the Western bloc as a whole.

[jaichind]

Somewhat comical chart of German exports to Kazakhstan.  I wonder what happened in 2022.


Of course, if you look at German exports to Russia+Central Asia you can see the drop


I bet if one were to add Turkey and the Caucasus states the German drop in exports to Russia + proxies will be even smaller than the chart above.  This sort of explains why the total economic impact of sanctions on Russia and Germany ended up being less than expected.  Money will always find a way.

[Storr]

Country promises it only wants to annex this much territory and then will have "No more territorial demands to make in Europe":

https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1688218202558337026?s=20

[Hindsight was 2020]

Country promises it only wants to annex this much territory and then will have "No more territorial demands to make in Europe":

https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1688218202558337026?s=20

Not only is it clearly a lie you can literally tell the out they’re going to use as they technically don’t fully control the oblasts they annexed

[pppolitics]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/06/world/europe/putins-forever-war.html

This is a depressing article with some very compelling images (the NYT is really good at that these days, the grey lady no more), about Putin being in the war for the long haul, seamlessly insulating the elites in Moscow from it all*, while using the impoverished men from the hinterlands, by offering them contract wages at 5 times the rate of their otherwise paltry wages of $500 a month.

*There is an image of a chic area in Moscow where the ambiance and sartorial presentation of its denizens would fit right in with the hippest and richest zip codes of NYC, bracketed against another of a city in the hinterlands (the cannon fodder supply zone) that could be mistaken for a third world hell hole.

Another depressing statement is that the 200,000 dead from the war are about equally divided between the two sides, per estimates from American diplomats in Moscow. Ouch.

Putin was passive when the Wagnerites moved on Moscow because he feared his guys would refuse to fire on them if ordered to do so.

The article has images of scenes in Moscow where the ambiance and sartorial presentation would fit right in with the hippest and richest precincts of NYC, and other images that look like some urban hell hole in the third world.

Here are some snippits of interest (culled down to the 200 word copyright quota - I always do a word count on Word and so should you),  the most arresting being the news that Europe is helping to finance Putin’s war by buying refined oil from India. I did not know that. Does Biden know that?

Sitting at a cafe overlooking the Patriarch’s Ponds in one of the toniest areas of central Moscow, Pyotr Tolstoy, a deputy chairman of the State Duma and a direct descendant of the great novelist Leo Tolstoy, exuded confidence as a moneyed crowd ate large crab claws and other delicacies.

When I asked him how Russia proposed to pay for a prolonged war effort, he shot back: “We pay for it all from our sales of oil to Europe via India.”

This was bravado, but it had some truth to it. Russia has rapidly adjusted to the loss of European markets with oil sales to Asia — and India has sold some of it on to Europe in refined form.

“Our values are different,” Mr. Tolstoy said. “For Russians, freedom and economic factors are secondary to the integrity of our state and the safeguarding of the Russian world.”

The Kremlinology of the Cold War has been replaced by the equally arduous pursuit of trying to penetrate the utter opacity of the Kremlin to read the mind of a new czar, Mr. Putin, now in the autumn of his rule.

That's a good article.
Only thing I see it fit to add at the moment would be that one could jokingly say there are four regions of Russia. Moscow. Saint Petersburg. The North Caucusus. And the countryside.

A solution is to give Ukraine ballistic missiles and let Ukraine blow up buildings in Moscow and St. Petersburg every day until the end of the war.

That way, regular Russians aren't insulated from the war.

[pppolitics]

Country promises it only wants to annex this much territory and then will have "No more territorial demands to make in Europe":

https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1688218202558337026?s=20

New Munich Agreement

Putin is the new Hitler

[Storr]

Imagine if American and British "political technologists" were as powerful as Russian propaganda claims they are:

https://twitter.com/VladaKnowlton/status/1688026905847758848?s=20

[Torie]

Fag robot warriors going after the evil demon is not something I thought much about before, but I like it!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/06/world/europe/putins-forever-war.html

This is a depressing article with some very compelling images (the NYT is really good at that these days, the grey lady no more), about Putin being in the war for the long haul, seamlessly insulating the elites in Moscow from it all*, while using the impoverished men from the hinterlands, by offering them contract wages at 5 times the rate of their otherwise paltry wages of $500 a month.

*There is an image of a chic area in Moscow where the ambiance and sartorial presentation of its denizens would fit right in with the hippest and richest zip codes of NYC, bracketed against another of a city in the hinterlands (the cannon fodder supply zone) that could be mistaken for a third world hell hole.

Another depressing statement is that the 200,000 dead from the war are about equally divided between the two sides, per estimates from American diplomats in Moscow. Ouch.

Putin was passive when the Wagnerites moved on Moscow because he feared his guys would refuse to fire on them if ordered to do so.

The article has images of scenes in Moscow where the ambiance and sartorial presentation would fit right in with the hippest and richest precincts of NYC, and other images that look like some urban hell hole in the third world.

Here are some snippits of interest (culled down to the 200 word copyright quota - I always do a word count on Word and so should you),  the most arresting being the news that Europe is helping to finance Putin’s war by buying refined oil from India. I did not know that. Does Biden know that?

Sitting at a cafe overlooking the Patriarch’s Ponds in one of the toniest areas of central Moscow, Pyotr Tolstoy, a deputy chairman of the State Duma and a direct descendant of the great novelist Leo Tolstoy, exuded confidence as a moneyed crowd ate large crab claws and other delicacies.

When I asked him how Russia proposed to pay for a prolonged war effort, he shot back: “We pay for it all from our sales of oil to Europe via India.”

This was bravado, but it had some truth to it. Russia has rapidly adjusted to the loss of European markets with oil sales to Asia — and India has sold some of it on to Europe in refined form.

“Our values are different,” Mr. Tolstoy said. “For Russians, freedom and economic factors are secondary to the integrity of our state and the safeguarding of the Russian world.”

The Kremlinology of the Cold War has been replaced by the equally arduous pursuit of trying to penetrate the utter opacity of the Kremlin to read the mind of a new czar, Mr. Putin, now in the autumn of his rule.

That's a good article.
Only thing I see it fit to add at the moment would be that one could jokingly say there are four regions of Russia. Moscow. Saint Petersburg. The North Caucusus. And the countryside.

A solution is to give Ukraine ballistic missiles and let Ukraine blow up buildings in Moscow and St. Petersburg every day until the end of the war.

That way, regular Russians aren't insulated from the war.

Interesting idea.
I don't see Washington doing it least because it has a controlling attitude with its arms (the Russians are much more lenient in that department). If it really had to be done I guess we could give them to Ukraine and tell them how to use it.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/06/world/europe/putins-forever-war.html

This is a depressing article with some very compelling images (the NYT is really good at that these days, the grey lady no more), about Putin being in the war for the long haul, seamlessly insulating the elites in Moscow from it all*, while using the impoverished men from the hinterlands, by offering them contract wages at 5 times the rate of their otherwise paltry wages of $500 a month.

*There is an image of a chic area in Moscow where the ambiance and sartorial presentation of its denizens would fit right in with the hippest and richest zip codes of NYC, bracketed against another of a city in the hinterlands (the cannon fodder supply zone) that could be mistaken for a third world hell hole.

Another depressing statement is that the 200,000 dead from the war are about equally divided between the two sides, per estimates from American diplomats in Moscow. Ouch.

Putin was passive when the Wagnerites moved on Moscow because he feared his guys would refuse to fire on them if ordered to do so.

The article has images of scenes in Moscow where the ambiance and sartorial presentation would fit right in with the hippest and richest precincts of NYC, and other images that look like some urban hell hole in the third world.

Here are some snippits of interest (culled down to the 200 word copyright quota - I always do a word count on Word and so should you),  the most arresting being the news that Europe is helping to finance Putin’s war by buying refined oil from India. I did not know that. Does Biden know that?

Sitting at a cafe overlooking the Patriarch’s Ponds in one of the toniest areas of central Moscow, Pyotr Tolstoy, a deputy chairman of the State Duma and a direct descendant of the great novelist Leo Tolstoy, exuded confidence as a moneyed crowd ate large crab claws and other delicacies.

When I asked him how Russia proposed to pay for a prolonged war effort, he shot back: “We pay for it all from our sales of oil to Europe via India.”

This was bravado, but it had some truth to it. Russia has rapidly adjusted to the loss of European markets with oil sales to Asia — and India has sold some of it on to Europe in refined form.

“Our values are different,” Mr. Tolstoy said. “For Russians, freedom and economic factors are secondary to the integrity of our state and the safeguarding of the Russian world.”

The Kremlinology of the Cold War has been replaced by the equally arduous pursuit of trying to penetrate the utter opacity of the Kremlin to read the mind of a new czar, Mr. Putin, now in the autumn of his rule.

That's a good article.
Only thing I see it fit to add at the moment would be that one could jokingly say there are four regions of Russia. Moscow. Saint Petersburg. The North Caucusus. And the countryside.

A solution is to give Ukraine ballistic missiles and let Ukraine blow up buildings in Moscow and St. Petersburg every day until the end of the war.

That way, regular Russians aren't insulated from the war.

Interesting idea.
I don't see Washington doing it least because it has a controlling attitude with its arms (the Russians are much more lenient in that department). If it really had to be done I guess we could give them to Ukraine and tell them how to use it.

I disagree the reason Washington wouldn’t do it is there are too many people in the administration like Jake Sullivan who are convinced Russia will drop a nuke if Ukraine starts really striking their territory