Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/western-support-for-kyiv-it-s-now-or-never-for-ukraine-a-b074ffd6-01b8-430b-a738-e6467ef39321

"It's Now or Never For Ukraine"

The Ukrainian counteroffensive has bogged down and soldiers have been able to do little to counter Russia's firepower. At next week's NATO summit, the West must decide how much a victory over Putin is worth and finally get serious about delivering urgently needed weapons systems.

Of course, what Spiegel advocates for merely produces the following situation

Ceaser 49BC:  I set forth to fight an army without a leader (Pompeian force in Hispania), so as later to fight a leader without an army (Pompey in Greece.)

Putin 2023AD: I set forth to fight a less well-trained Ukrainian army with advanced NATO weapons, so as later to fight a well-trained NATO army without advanced NATO weapons

[jaichind]

https://kyivcity.gov.ua/news/u_kiyevi_rozpochali_zapis_tsivilnogo_naselennya_na_prokhodzhennya_odnodennikh_navchan_iz_pidgotovki_do_natsionalnogo_sprotivu/


 
The City of Kiev announces registration of the civilian population for one-day training in preparation for national resistance

It sounds like pre-draft training in preparation for further waves of mobilization

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1676923962205298689

From White House briefing on Feb 28th 2022
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/2022/02/28/press-briefing-by-press-secretary-jen-psaki-february-28-2022/

Q    Thanks, Jen.  There are reports of illegal cluster bombs and vacuum bombs being used by the Russians.  If that’s true, what is the next step of this administration?  And is there a red line for how much violence will be tolerated against civilians in this manner that’s illegal and potentially a war crime?

MS. PSAKI:  It is — it would be.  I don’t have any confirmation of that.  We have seen the reports.  If that were true, it would potentially be a war crime.

Obviously, there are a range of international fora that would assess that.  So, certainly, we would look to that to be a part of that conversation.

I really do not accept the concept of war crimes and I see nothing wrong with using cluster bombs both either side if it gets the job done but it is the Whtie House that wanted to make it a big deal that cluster bombs are "potentially a war crime."

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Because the Russians used cluster bombs against peaceful cities and towns. Cluster bombs are still a problem, as unexploded shells becomes as dangerous to residents as mines, but it's not hard to guess that this problem reaches the scale of a war crime if these shells are scattered among apartment buildings.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Another interesting fact is that in Ukraine and Russia the use of phosphorus munitions is considered a war crime, although in fact its are not prohibited. And I saw footage of how Russia, despite this perception, used its against Azovstal and Bakhmut.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1677671607613923328?s=12
Wow Erdogan has given a shocking amount of middle fingers to Putin ahead of his supposed visit

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-administration-did-not-sanction-unofficial-talks-with-russians-state-2023-07-06/

"Biden administration did not sanction unofficial talks with Russians, State Dept says"

If it was not sanctioned by the USA government then it seems Richard Haass might have violated the Logan Act.   This sounds much deeper than what Michael Flynn did by meeting with the Russian ambassador in the run-up to Mr. Trump’s inauguration.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/matbabiak/status/1677756300803940352?s=12
Lol Crybar is cope mode is the best

[Virginiá]

I'm thinking the increase in howitzers might be tied into the DPICM drop to increase capabilities along wider stretches of the front?

Likely, yes. The number of 155mm guns Ukraine has is honestly not enough for the number of shells they are firing. Many of those barrels are only "officially" rated for 3k - 5k fires, depending on the amount of charge used. There have been reports of them using some barrels up to 20k - 30k, as many of them don't have adequate replacements... So likely they are both trying to increase the number of fire missions they can perform but also spread out the barrel wear. Also important is how large a single battery is on the Ukrainian side. I've seen videos of some only consisting of 2 - 3 howitzers. It's not enough to only be able to hit a target with ~2 shells at a time, with a delay between the next salvo. That gives people time to get to cover or get out of dodge entirely. Increasing a battery size and throwing in cluster shells would let them saturate an area with explosions that just wasn't possible before. (at least on a sustained basis)

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/matbabiak/status/1677756300803940352?s=12
Lol Crybar is cope mode is the best

This isn't necessarily all good yet.

I did post the weather forecast yesterday and it does appear that heavy rains are impeding Ukrainian breakthroughs, although it should be noted that this might make it harder for Russian reinforcements as well...

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/matbabiak/status/1677756300803940352?s=12
Lol Crybar is cope mode is the best

This isn't necessarily all good yet.

I did post the weather forecast yesterday and it does appear that heavy rains are impeding Ukrainian breakthroughs, although it should be noted that this might make it harder for Russian reinforcements as well...

I don’t think it’s really impeding Ukraine yet though, it seems the route they are going for is a slow and thorough game of grinding out Russian resources in particular targeting artillery so they can really exploit a breakthrough when it comes

[CumbrianLefty]

We have now passed the 500 day mark in this war.

A reminder at this point that Russia was expecting it to last maybe 500 hours.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Gen. Milley says Kyiv could fall within 72 hours if Russia decides to invade Ukraine
February 5, 2022 8:37pm EST
FOX NEWS

[jaichind]

https://www.easternherald.com/2023/07/09/ukraines-deputy-defense-minister-admitted-kyiv-was-behind-the-crimean-bridge-explosion/

"Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister Admitted Kyiv Was Behind The Crimean Bridge Explosion"

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/sarahashtonlv/status/1677958716644118529?s=12
Russia continues to take inexcusably high losses despite being the dug in defenders

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1677943990501482496

[Torie]

I have a new and creative idea. Ukraine agrees to "adjust" its border with Poland so that what remains is but the toxic fields of Chernobyl (sp). So now the issue of the borders of NATO has been mooted.

[emailking]

Biden says war with Russia must end before NATO can consider membership for Ukraine

President Joe Biden told CNN in an exclusive interview that Ukraine is not yet ready for NATO membership, saying that Russia’s war in Ukraine needs to end before the alliance can consider adding Kyiv to its ranks.

Biden told CNN’s Fareed Zakaria that while discussion of Ukraine’s imminent membership in NATO was premature, the US and its allies in NATO would continue to provide President Volodymyr Zelensky and his forces the security and weaponry they need to try to end the war with Russia.

Biden spoke to Zakaria ahead of his weeklong trip to Europe, which includes a NATO summit in Lithuania where Russia’s war in Ukraine and Zelensky’s push for NATO membership will be among the key issues looming over the gathering.

“I don’t think there is unanimity in NATO about whether or not to bring Ukraine into the NATO family now, at this moment, in the middle of a war,” Biden said...

https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/09/politics/joe-biden-ukraine-nato-russia-cnntv/index.html

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Biden says war with Russia must end before NATO can consider membership for Ukraine

President Joe Biden told CNN in an exclusive interview that Ukraine is not yet ready for NATO membership, saying that Russia’s war in Ukraine needs to end before the alliance can consider adding Kyiv to its ranks.

Biden told CNN’s Fareed Zakaria that while discussion of Ukraine’s imminent membership in NATO was premature, the US and its allies in NATO would continue to provide President Volodymyr Zelensky and his forces the security and weaponry they need to try to end the war with Russia.

Biden spoke to Zakaria ahead of his weeklong trip to Europe, which includes a NATO summit in Lithuania where Russia’s war in Ukraine and Zelensky’s push for NATO membership will be among the key issues looming over the gathering.

“I don’t think there is unanimity in NATO about whether or not to bring Ukraine into the NATO family now, at this moment, in the middle of a war,” Biden said...

https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/09/politics/joe-biden-ukraine-nato-russia-cnntv/index.html

Seems entirely reasonable

[Frodo]

Thoughts?

[Red Velvet]

Thoughts?

It’s much more complicated than simply “winning” or “losing” for places outside Europe tbh.

And the video really overestimates the rise of positive opinion about US, though it’s definitely true for an European internal context. Like, we have never seen Europeans lick American boots as much as they’ve been doing since the war started, which speaks to their dependence of American money and power for financing their military needs and also economically since Russia blockades have a direct effect on many of them.

Europe as a whole certainty is the place that loses the most with this war, not just economically but politically as they lose a lot of political independence and leverage. It’s like, they could act somewhat independent from the United States or were at least in a much better position to do it because of the European Union and the Euro but the war closes options and “freedom of movement” they have, being forced to turn too much to the United States. At the same time, China - although seen as legitimate partner - being way too powerful is not seen with good eyes.

Whenever you see leaderships like Macron expressing some light skepticism about US it’s necessarily to counterweight a possible excessive dependence from Europe that could aggravate as the war extends. For independence, it’s always better to have multiple options because:

A) Gives you safety in case the option you have disappoints one day. Kinda like market investments, you want to diversify the options you have because that way if one fails you, the others will keep you floating and preventing you from sinking.

B) Gives you more leverage in international negotiations. With Europe being too dependent on US, what exactly is European leverage in negotiations and deals they will have with the Americans these days? Much much less obviously. They cannot afford to stand up for themselves and their interests as much as they’ve done before the war began and in a broader sense beyond the US as well. See for example the Africans after the war now feeling way more comfortable to step on the Europeans, saying to them what they always wanted but didn’t before.

For a non-European context it’s much more complicated however. The Ukraine War doesn’t directly affect them so they aren’t necessarily forced to turn to US like Europe is so outside much more indirect effects - it basically has zero effect on these places.

That said, non-Western leaderships have all correctly identified the war as an opportunity to boost their own international leverage - especially from bigger countries like India and Brazil who are better able to position themselves in that way. A weaker Europe (EU + Russia) and stronger USA is seen as a negative development that creates unbalance in global relations that could prejudice them and affect their own diversity of options. I mean, if Europe fully becomes US-puppet, what does that mean for everyone else who doesn’t have the same economic power that the EU has, or military power that Russia has?

At the same time, stuff like attempts to freeze Russian assets is seen like an abuse of power that if the West can get away doing with Russia, it could with anybody else. And you’re definitely seeing a reaction to this. Which is why you’ve seen the rise of BRICS exactly AFTER the war.

It’s not just on the Russian interest to build alternatives to Europe and the West, it’s literally on EVERYBODY ELSE’S strategic interest as well for the reason I’ve already explained. Because a weak Europe gives much more disproportionate power to US and a more powerful US is a danger to the interest of countries that want to keep their own leverage and standing when negotiating with the US.

That coincidental alignment of interests is much more of a reason for an active neutrality that is convenient to Russia than any “you’re falling for RuZzIaN prOpAGaNdA” that westerners online with no grasp on the real nature of geopolitics but lots of false-victimhood can understand. These ridiculous people seem to think of the world as a Marvel movie instead where they’re always the saviors and people in Emergent countries are mere pawns in their own created games without interests of their own.

So anyway, the natural strategy for these places is to strengthen alternatives to the US (and by extension Europe, which became the new American backyard with this war) and not because “they all think US BADD and hate us, Marvel told me so” - but to ensure they have a balanced portfolio of options that don’t allow for anyone’s ~hegemony~ or something. Which is very reasonable and natural position. Not even Europe favors US hegemony but they’re currently in a circumstance where they are stuck, others are not.

And naturally, China becomes a key player in any discussions of creation of new alternatives. If you want to create alternatives to the US dollar for example, there’s no way the Emergent countries are able to do that in a way where China is not present. So in that logic, China also gains power with the war as much as the US does. While Countries that position themselves as neutral also gain a lot of negotiation leverage as everyone is trying to get more places to their side.

The only place that really loses a lot geopolitically with the war is Europe as a whole. Russia individually also becomes geopolitically irrelevant, though in a collective way they can naturally have importance and influence inside any non-western group considering their size and economy. However, Russia would still be a supporting player in everything that is happening.

[Red Velvet]

Biden says war with Russia must end before NATO can consider membership for Ukraine

President Joe Biden told CNN in an exclusive interview that Ukraine is not yet ready for NATO membership, saying that Russia’s war in Ukraine needs to end before the alliance can consider adding Kyiv to its ranks.

Biden told CNN’s Fareed Zakaria that while discussion of Ukraine’s imminent membership in NATO was premature, the US and its allies in NATO would continue to provide President Volodymyr Zelensky and his forces the security and weaponry they need to try to end the war with Russia.

Biden spoke to Zakaria ahead of his weeklong trip to Europe, which includes a NATO summit in Lithuania where Russia’s war in Ukraine and Zelensky’s push for NATO membership will be among the key issues looming over the gathering.

“I don’t think there is unanimity in NATO about whether or not to bring Ukraine into the NATO family now, at this moment, in the middle of a war,” Biden said...

https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/09/politics/joe-biden-ukraine-nato-russia-cnntv/index.html

It’s in line with the US goals, nothing new.

Ukraine entering NATO would put them directly in the conflict, which is not good for them at all unless they can quickly close the deal. However, extending the war for as most as possible clearly makes Europe more dependent of them.

[NOVA Green]

ISW "Discussing with maps":

Note for best resolution you will likely want to open each map in a new browser window.

Stuff is still hot on the Bakhmut front, while tens of thousands of Russian soldiers tied down to defend a  place which in no way shape or form to be considered strategic, but rather symbolic at best.

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1678222516513284098?s=20

[NOVA Green]

Now that elections in Turkey are over, looks like the "Grain Corridor" will be protected by Turkish Warships...

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1678106624441851908?s=20

[Hindsight was 2020]

Thoughts?

The person making this vid probably doesn’t mean it in the same way some jerk vatnik like CodePink or Red Velvet do but referring to this war as a “US proxy war” will never not sound douchey and come off as incredibly tone deaf and out of touch with the geopolitical reality and history between Ukraine and Russia