Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Torie]

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1676310984309239811

god if the russki terrorists cause a disaster at the plant NATO has to respond, theres no other option, hopefully response would be strong, send the black sea fleet to davy jones locker, maybe pacific and arctic fleets too, no-fly zone over Ukraine, no more pussy "strong condemnations"

Bombing a nuclear plant is essentially the same as using nuclear warfare. That would justify imo repercussions or even an invasion of Russia by NATO.

Incorrect.

The radiation from a nuclear power plant blown up is far worse than a nuclear explosion, there is a lot more radioactive material.

It would spread by the winds in Central and Eastern Europe and the Middle East , causing panic and disruption of life over a wide area of the world.

American allies such as Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, Turkey, Georgia, Israel would be affected directly due to the prevailing winds.

Russia all the way up to the Urals.

It doesn't make sence for anyone to blow it up, even as a pretext for official NATO involvement.

Both sides can find easier ways to change the course of the war.

What is Russia waits until the prevailing winds go where they normally do not go? That is my concern.

[rc18]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12264611/Britain-just-40-tanks-dozen-frigates-destroyers-ready-war.html

"Fight Russia? Britain has just 40 tanks and around a dozen frigates and destroyers ready to go war - the lowest figures in modern times"

The current conflict has de-militarized the UK.

I'm not really sure what the current conflict has to do with the number of destroyers and frigates the RN has. And the UK has decommissioned far more tanks than have been given to Ukraine.

The winding down of the UK armed forces long predates the war.

I was thinking of  British Challenger 2 tanks

Yeah but they are being cut down anyway. Only 148 will be kept and upgraded to Challenger 3, the rest are being retired.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1676560098250960899

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1676665782082719770
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1676678311458611200

[Lykaon]

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1676665782082719770
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1676678311458611200

Looks like the Ukrainians are still giving the Orcs a 4th of July show they’ll never forget. Forget DC, Forget Boston, Makiivka is the place to be!

(What are the odds Ukraine winds up attacking into Donetsk-Makiivka cities? Urban warfare is especially brutal but idk how many troops the orcs have there given they’re concentrated in Bakhmut and in Zaporizhizhia Oblast

[Lykaon]

https://twitter.com/WarFrontline/status/1676566653713121282?s=20

The Orcs have apparently fled from Klishchivka, Bakhmut’s innermost southern suburb

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/WarFrontline/status/1676566653713121282?s=20

The Orcs have apparently fled from Klishchivka, Bakhmut’s innermost southern suburb

Unfortunately they haven’t yet, there was a big misunderstanding this morning due to Russian telegram reports of Ukraine taking the high ground over Klishchiivka meaning that Russian troops will need to abandon it to Russia actually abandoning it

[Virginiá]

Ukraine can bypass it easily anywhere along the dry riverbed, and I've been wondering for a month now why are they still attacking the trenches instead of preparing to drive cross the dry Dnieper.

It's not totally dry (or rather, passable) - I've seen pictures of people walking on parts of it and sinking like a foot into the river bed, so you can imagine what a 14 ton MRAP or 30+ ton IFV would do, and they would be quite exposed along the way. Also there is still water, it's just a lot less, so they would still need to ford the remnants of the river.

[CityofSinners]

It is too early to assess if the counter offensive is a sucess or a failure. The 2022 Kherson counteroffensive was offically started on 29 August 2022 but preparations started before that. It took until 11 November to liberate Kherson city.

During that time the Ukranian offensive stalled more then a few times. In the end cutting off russian supply lines was the determining factor, not territorial gains.

This counteroffensive could fizzle out. Or only minor gains are posted until russians suddenly withdraw from a lot of territory because their supplies and reserve forces are exhausted.

To assess the sucess of this operation, looking at logistics and how much reserves both side use is more informative then territorial gains.

[Hindsight was 2020]

It is too early to assess if the counter offensive is a sucess or a failure. The 2022 Kherson counteroffensive was offically started on 29 August 2022 but preparations started before that. It took until 11 November to liberate Kherson city.

During that time the Ukranian offensive stalled more then a few times. In the end cutting off russian supply lines was the determining factor, not territorial gains.

This counteroffensive could fizzle out. Or only minor gains are posted until russians suddenly withdraw from a lot of territory because their supplies and reserve forces are exhausted.

To assess the sucess of this operation, looking at logistics and how much reserves both side use is more informative then territorial gains.

It’s quite noticeable that people who rush to declare the counterattack a failure tend to ignore the reports on the ground like the recent evidence that Russia is likely now suffering more casualties than Ukraine which is pretty embarrassing when general rule of warfare is defenders are meant to enjoy a 3-1 advantage 

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/faytuks/status/1676712248851542017?s=12
Freakin finally!! 🙌

[Lykaon]

https://twitter.com/faytuks/status/1676712248851542017?s=12
Freakin finally!! 🙌

I’m still holding out hope for ATACMS. Unless they’re saving those for if Ukraine can reach the shores of Azov and have an easier shot yo unload on Kerch Strait

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/TBowmanNPR/status/1676709006063091712

[Torie]

Ukraine can bypass it easily anywhere along the dry riverbed, and I've been wondering for a month now why are they still attacking the trenches instead of preparing to drive cross the dry Dnieper.

It's not totally dry (or rather, passable) - I've seen pictures of people walking on parts of it and sinking like a foot into the river bed, so you can imagine what a 14 ton MRAP or 30+ ton IFV would do, and they would be quite exposed along the way. Also there is still water, it's just a lot less, so they would still need to ford the remnants of the river.

In the Civil War, the Army Corps of Engineers could build pontoons on the fly over the swampy sh*t (they still had to deal with the mosquitos without repellent but I digress). That is how my great grandfather on Sherman's march got to the sea.

My uninformed intuition is that Putin's Russia is brittle, with no flex, and with a bit more pressure, will just snap, like the Oakland Bridge did in the big quake (that an ancestor of mine helped design but was dead when it fell, so judgement proof - ha). Push!

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1676685407877050368https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1676697080461393920

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1675792601096634368

[pppolitics]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-05/shift-in-balance-of-arms-in-ukraine-underscored-by-fresh-data

[CanadianDemocrat]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12264611/Britain-just-40-tanks-dozen-frigates-destroyers-ready-war.html

"Fight Russia? Britain has just 40 tanks and around a dozen frigates and destroyers ready to go war - the lowest figures in modern times"

The current conflict has de-militarized the UK.

I'm not really sure what the current conflict has to do with the number of destroyers and frigates the RN has. And the UK has decommissioned far more tanks than have been given to Ukraine.

The winding down of the UK armed forces long predates the war.

I was thinking of  British Challenger 2 tanks

Yeah but they are being cut down anyway. Only 148 will be kept and upgraded to Challenger 3, the rest are being retired.

The UK should send every Challenger 2 being retired to Ukraine, those tanks would be a huge help for Ukraine. The UK would have to pay money to retire the Challenger 2 tanks.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/revishvilig/status/1676637595302854673?s=12
The consequences of the Wagner Coup D'Blyat is going to be Putin having to purge the only people in his military that are semi competent lol

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/revishvilig/status/1676637595302854673?s=12
The consequences of the Wagner Coup D'Blyat is going to be Putin having to purge the only people in his military that are semi competent lol

If true, this runs counter to the vast majority of "informed experts" who see a post mutiny purge of the Russian military as a very bad idea, and more likely to weaken Putin domestically and not strengthen him.

Hell, "The Chef" was able to waltz into Saint Petersburg just the other day and pick up his guns and Millions in cash and gold bars and waltz away with no harm done.

Granted if I were him, I would have had somebody else touch the guns and money with gloves and PPE, so as to not contact some weird chemical poisoning.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/world-news/putin-invade-moon-20million-rocket-30339472

"Putin set to invade the moon with £20million rocket heading for the Lunar South Pole"

And this sounds like an Iron Sky plot.

Yeah, pretty silly.

I think that, just possibly, that may be the actual point?

It is. It's the kind of joke I am familiar with making.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1676617671310295041?s=20

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

If true, this runs counter to the vast majority of "informed experts" who see a post mutiny purge of the Russian military as a very bad idea, and more likely to weaken Putin domestically and not strengthen him.

Hell, "The Chef" was able to waltz into Saint Petersburg just the other day and pick up his guns and Millions in cash and gold bars and waltz away with no harm done.

Granted if I were him, I would have had somebody else touch the guns and money with gloves and PPE, so as to not contact some weird chemical poisoning.

The words of Russian politicians easily deceive those who do not know how things are done in Russia. If Putin really wanted to take revenge on Prigeau, Prigeau will not have been able to take his property so easily, but will have died of a "heart attack" as a result of turning into a chop long before the "mutiny". Like Mikhail Lesin, for example. The fact that Prigeau easily does whatever he needs, and that the confiscated buses full of money were also returned to him, shows that in reality there is no conflict between Putin and Prigeau.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1676834066904018945

[Badger]

Hmmm, all these "the offensive has been a terrible disappointment" posts from jaichind but *at the same time* lots of reliable reports of actual Ukrainian advances! Who to believe, eh.....

Because if you took a minute to lay down and analyze, you would know not to take a random post from a Z-telegram and a map at face value from the same guy who has been spamming the last 4 pages with same posts. You realize Zherebyanky has been a frontline village for weeks now? Maybe you shouldn't stir sh*t to a guy when you don't know yourself what you're looking at?

Tens of billions of dollars of European and American tax dollars and already a month of the well-established counteroffensive, and they have (confirmed) taken only 9 villages with a few dozen inhabitants. How do you think people should value that?

“But I’m pro Ukraine I swear”

In theory you could of argued he is pro-Ukraine but a doomer but he kinda hurt that when he said guys like Def Mon or Andrew Perpetuna are great sources to follow when they criticized staying in Bakhmut but noticeable doesn’t seem to cite them these days when they are giving a positive review of the state of the counter attack.  

Far too kind an assessment. Woody has always been a notorious liar with his greatest example of course breaking his promise to leave the Forum for a year if the Democrats won the Georgia special elections in 2020. He's just too spineless to admit where his loyalties are.