Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Torie]

Could Ukraine realistically take back Crimea

Realistic, as in militarily realistic?

Maybe, though fairly difficult.

Realistic, as in Putin won't use tactical nukes?

Very unlikely. Losing Crimea would guarantee the end of Putin's regime. Losing Kherson, Kharkov oblast etc. does not.

Coupled with the fact that most Crimean residents (even pre-2014) are ethnically Russian, and in favor of being part of the RF ever since Euromaidan, I don't see how it would be worth it.

Some Americans here mentioning they are just pro-RU Ukrainian separatists makes no sense if one is familiar with how ethnic identities work in some parts of the World. A Russian born in Ukraine is Russian. A Croat born in Bosnia is still Croat. Nationality and ethnicity are different in these parts compared to the US.

It pains me to say this, but conceding/recognizing Crimea as Russian territory in exchange for the return of all other Crimean land and all of their many thousands of kidnapped citizens might be a way to achieve peace once the Ukraine has beaten Russia out of the other occupied portions of the country. It's enough to save Putin enough face to declare the victory with their concession on Ukraine and not suffer a coup. Not that I don't wish to see him rotting in hell, I just wish to see Ukraine unconquered and at peace.

And a member of NATO. That is the essential codicil to your otherwise most estimable musings. Russia thinking of a redux has to be made unthinkable for them.

[2952-0-0]

Next time Azerbaijan tries to annex southern Armenia, I guess the world can follow Armenia's example and "abstain". What point is there in kowtowing to Moscow now when they have seen that CSTO is meaningless? Even the Russia lovers of Serbia voted to condemn.

https://twitter.com/patriot_singles/status/1580295767977119744

Wow, even the Taliban voted against Russia.

Not too surprising. Who did they fight against in the 1980s, after all?

Actually, Afghanistan's seat at the UN is held by the previous government that collapsed last year, so its vote doesn't represent the Taliban.

The same is true with Myanmar, which explains why its representative at the UN voted in favour, while the military junta at home is Russia's best buddy in Southeast Asia.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Could Ukraine realistically take back Crimea

Realistic, as in militarily realistic?

Maybe, though fairly difficult.

Realistic, as in Putin won't use tactical nukes?

Very unlikely. Losing Crimea would guarantee the end of Putin's regime. Losing Kherson, Kharkov oblast etc. does not.

Coupled with the fact that most Crimean residents (even pre-2014) are ethnically Russian, and in favor of being part of the RF ever since Euromaidan, I don't see how it would be worth it.

Some Americans here mentioning they are just pro-RU Ukrainian separatists makes no sense if one is familiar with how ethnic identities work in some parts of the World. A Russian born in Ukraine is Russian. A Croat born in Bosnia is still Croat. Nationality and ethnicity are different in these parts compared to the US.

It pains me to say this, but conceding/recognizing Crimea as Russian territory in exchange for the return of all other Crimean land and all of their many thousands of kidnapped citizens might be a way to achieve peace once the Ukraine has beaten Russia out of the other occupied portions of the country. It's enough to save Putin enough face to declare the victory with their concession on Ukraine and not suffer a coup. Not that I don't wish to see him rotting in hell, I just wish to see Ukraine unconquered and at peace.

Btw my guess is Ukraine would accept this as well but it has to be a compromise Russia comes up with , not something Ukraine themselves would offer upfront as doing so would make the actual  deal worse.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Could Ukraine realistically take back Crimea

Realistic, as in militarily realistic?

Maybe, though fairly difficult.

Realistic, as in Putin won't use tactical nukes?

Very unlikely. Losing Crimea would guarantee the end of Putin's regime. Losing Kherson, Kharkov oblast etc. does not.

Coupled with the fact that most Crimean residents (even pre-2014) are ethnically Russian, and in favor of being part of the RF ever since Euromaidan, I don't see how it would be worth it.

Some Americans here mentioning they are just pro-RU Ukrainian separatists makes no sense if one is familiar with how ethnic identities work in some parts of the World. A Russian born in Ukraine is Russian. A Croat born in Bosnia is still Croat. Nationality and ethnicity are different in these parts compared to the US.

It pains me to say this, but conceding/recognizing Crimea as Russian territory in exchange for the return of all other Crimean land and all of their many thousands of kidnapped citizens might be a way to achieve peace once the Ukraine has beaten Russia out of the other occupied portions of the country. It's enough to save Putin enough face to declare the victory with their concession on Ukraine and not suffer a coup. Not that I don't wish to see him rotting in hell, I just wish to see Ukraine unconquered and at peace.

Btw my guess is Ukraine would accept this as well but it has to be a compromise Russia comes up with , not something Ukraine themselves would offer upfront as doing so would make the actual  deal worse.

I think a vaguely-realistic negotiated outcome would be Russia ceases its occupation of the lands they have occupied this year in exchange for a UN-monitored referendum on Crimea's status that the pro-Russian side would probably win.

[2952-0-0]

I think a vaguely-realistic negotiated outcome would be Russia ceases its occupation of the lands they have occupied this year in exchange for a UN-monitored referendum on Crimea's status that the pro-Russian side would probably win.

But, why make this assumption? It's one thing to identify with the Russian nation in the abstract sense. It's another to experience eight years of Russian misrule, then see Russia's status as a military superpower get torn to shreds, and then see Russia either collapse into a warlord state or morph into a giant North Korea. In that case, someone who was pro-Russia in 2014 would vote to be Ukrainian.

[nicholas.slaydon]

Could Ukraine realistically take back Crimea

Realistic, as in militarily realistic?

Maybe, though fairly difficult.

Realistic, as in Putin won't use tactical nukes?

Very unlikely. Losing Crimea would guarantee the end of Putin's regime. Losing Kherson, Kharkov oblast etc. does not.

Coupled with the fact that most Crimean residents (even pre-2014) are ethnically Russian, and in favor of being part of the RF ever since Euromaidan, I don't see how it would be worth it.

Some Americans here mentioning they are just pro-RU Ukrainian separatists makes no sense if one is familiar with how ethnic identities work in some parts of the World. A Russian born in Ukraine is Russian. A Croat born in Bosnia is still Croat. Nationality and ethnicity are different in these parts compared to the US.

It pains me to say this, but conceding/recognizing Crimea as Russian territory in exchange for the return of all other Crimean land and all of their many thousands of kidnapped citizens might be a way to achieve peace once the Ukraine has beaten Russia out of the other occupied portions of the country. It's enough to save Putin enough face to declare the victory with their concession on Ukraine and not suffer a coup. Not that I don't wish to see him rotting in hell, I just wish to see Ukraine unconquered and at peace.

Why are people so concerned with allowing a brutal dictator to "save face"! This is a war that he and his political/military advisors decided on, and they must face the consequences of their actions. If we allow  Russia to "save face" and "declare victory", we might as well just invite another such war. If any tin pot dictator can invade their neighbor, and made bold, blackmailing threats, and have all those that could stop their war of aggression kowtow and call for "negotiated settlements" and advocating for peace over war, we might as well just give them all a green light to do the same as Putin. The only way that Ukraine will ever have peace from Russia is if Russia is not permitted to "save face" or "declare victory", but rather Ukraine will only have a lasting peace if Russia is totally and utterly defeated, with Russia leaving all of Ukrainian territory.

[Badger]

Next time Azerbaijan tries to annex southern Armenia, I guess the world can follow Armenia's example and "abstain". What point is there in kowtowing to Moscow now when they have seen that CSTO is meaningless? Even the Russia lovers of Serbia voted to condemn.

https://twitter.com/patriot_singles/status/1580295767977119744

Should I be surprised that Honduras and Thailand abstained? I mean, I know Castro is leftist, but I didn't think she was that far gone. And Thailand's president I have assumed was just a typical authoritarian without left-leaning sympathies

[NOVA Green]

Russian choppers taking a bit of a hit in Southern Ukraine:

Ukraine’s armed forces on Wednesday downed four Russian helicopters in 18 minutes in the south of the country.

Between 8.40am and 8.58am, anti-aircraft missile units of Ukraine’s Air Force managed to hit the Russian aircrafts, it was claimed.

“Combat work was carried out on two more helicopters, so there is a high probability that the number of confirmed down helicopters will increase,” the Air Force said in a press release.

The claims were partially confirmed by pro-Russian sources on the Telegram messaging app.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-russia-war-latest-ukrainian-forces-shoot-down-four-russian-helicopters-in-18-minutes/ar-AA12RbeV?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=c3808cbe6ab04cbdbf3d940ea26f763a

[NOVA Green]

Forbes article on the "Reindeer Brigade" recently deployed to Ukraine:

In late 2014, the Kremlin organized a new army brigade for a new kind of war. Anticipating escalating tensions in the resource-rich—and rapidly thawing—Arctic region, the army combined two existing motorized rifle battalions with supporting artillery, air-defense and engineer units, equipped them with specialized cold-weather vehicles and placed them under the banner of the 80th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade in Alakurtti near Russia’s border with Finland.

Eight years later, the 80th SMRB is fighting for its life in an environment it never planned for—the wide-open farms of southern Ukraine’s breadbasket around the port of Kherson. Under attack by the Ukrainian army’s battle-hardened 128th Mountain Brigade, the 80th SMRB and whatever remains of a Russian navy coastal-defense brigade—another unit that’s out of its element—are falling back toward Beryslav, a town whose durable crossing over the Dnipro River makes it an obvious location for a last stand before Russian troops quit Kherson Oblast.

By this fall, the brigade was in Kherson Oblast, fighting alongside naval infantry and the army’s 49th Combined Arms Army as the Ukrainians launched a broad counteroffensive in the region.

The 80th SMRB wasn’t an obvious choice to reinforce Kherson. Its original equipment—wide-track MT-LB armored tractors and BTR-82 wheeled fighting vehicles—was meant for Arctic operations. The 80th SMRB’s troopers had trained to fight in snow, sometimes even using snowmobiles, dog-sleds and reindeer for mobility.

Today the 80th SMRB is damaged and retreating. Whether it succeeds in holding fast around Beryslav and stalling if not stopping Ukrainian attacks northeast of Kherson depends more on what the Ukrainians choose to do than it does on any options the Kremlin might still have. The leadership in Kyiv apparently aims to launch a third counteroffensive aimed at occupied Mariupol, an operation that could cut the Russian army in Ukraine in half.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/10/07/russias-reindeer-brigade-is-fighting-for-its-survival-in-southern-ukraine/?sh=2fd5115c4206

[NOVA Green]

I have posted several times previously regarding UK training of Ukrainian troops, (Some of which have already been deployed into combat), now it appears Australia might be providing similar support.

I would imagine we are not talking about the very specific training which for example the US has provided for HIMARS systems, or similar types of training which other allies of Ukraine have provided.

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has said his government would consider providing military training to Ukrainian forces in their war with Russia.

The prime minister told Australian media on Wednesday he had spoken to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Tuesday about what further contributions Australia could make to Ukraine’s war effort.

Albanese told broadcaster Channel 7 news that “we certainly are” considering training Ukrainian military personnel, describing Russia’s targeting of civilians as “appalling attacks”.

Reports differed on where that training might be provided, with some news organisations saying Australian trainers would be sent to Ukraine while other reports said the training would not take place inside Ukrainian territory.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/australia-may-provide-military-training-to-ukraine-forces-pm/ar-AA12QS7Z?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=c3808cbe6ab04cbdbf3d940ea26f763a

[Virginiá]

Oof, remaining Kerch road bridge span is not looking too stable

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1580307229650997249

Probably explains why the Crimean ferries have a 3-4 day waiting period and hundreds of backed up trucks.

[NOVA Green]

Oof, remaining Kerch road bridge span is not looking too stable

Was just about to post something of a similar nature...


https://twitter.com/HKaaman/status/1580202177296941056?s=20&t=rFSuqpUqTjLUji...


https://twitter.com/HKaaman/status/1580202182397558785?s=20&t=rFSuqpUqTjLUji...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Good video.

[ProudModerate2]

Looks like the new troops have arrived

https://mobile.twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1580293815357042688

Maybe forgot to cover a thing or two in training

Good Lord.
How much more obvious is it, when you clearly see a line of huge mines in a straight line, across the road?

[DINGO Joe]

Looks like the new troops have arrived

https://mobile.twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1580293815357042688

Maybe forgot to cover a thing or two in training

Good Lord.
How much more obvious is it, when you clearly see a line of huge mines in a straight line, across the road?

Maybe poor training.  Maybe distracted by drones.  Maybe substandard equipment.  Maybe booze.

One twitter quip was that it was Russian version of Whiskey Tango Foxtrot--Vodka Tango Foxtrot.

Also, Russian troops don't get rotated out like Ukrainian ones do.  They have to be delirious by this point. 

I really wonder what winter will bring.  Ukraine has better equipment, better maintenance, better supply lines.  Things might not be frozen in place like everyone assumes.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1580339069531279361

[Virginiá]

Vintage Hawk air defense system might see a comeback

Although TBF it would be the latter variant (I-Hawk) that saw improvements in the 80s and 90s. This was the system of choice for America before the PATRIOT made its debut.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/patriot-floated-as-possible-air-defense-system-for-ukraine-by-top-u-s-general

Ukraine, he said, has asked for older systems, like the I-Hawk, an improved version of the short-to-medium-range, medium-altitude Hawk system first fielded in the 1960s.  It has a larger, 163-pound blast-fragmentation warhead, a smaller and improved guidance package, and a new M112 rocket motor.

“It's an older system, but it's quite effective,” said Milley.

Hawk pales in comparison to NASAMS and IRST-T SLM, but it could be good as a supplement to Ukraine's soviet-era air defenses that are forward deployed in the field

Not the most advanced system but it's better than nothing and would help fill in gaps (or free up other assets to do so) where little-to-no air defense currently exists. Also there are likely a number of unused systems and missiles laying around for this (US, SK, etc).

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Woodbury says its all going swimmingly for them, though - who to believe?

Ukraine has lost around 10,000 soldiers and Russia has lost 63,000. That is just catastrophic for the Russians, it is a 6:1 kill ratio benefiting Ukraine.

Russians are still using outdated Soviet style horde attacks with massive losses. Ukraine does everything it can to keep their soldiers alive. When Ukraine runs into a fortified position, they surround it and wait for the Russians to retreat.

[DINGO Joe]

https://mobile.twitter.com/BenDoBrown/status/1580385992791334912

A satellite view of the trucks packed on an abandoned airport tarmac and runway waiting for the ferryman.  I assume that they'll ultimately switch to container shipping though it'll be time consuming and tedious for such a short trip. 

[Frodo]

Next best thing to Ukraine joining NATO is to upgrade its post-war defenses and make them fully compatible with that of the alliance by the time it does officially become a member:

https://twitter.com/PoliticoRyan/status/1580321684967817216
I am sure this is exactly what Putin had in mind when he invaded the country....

[Badger]

Could Ukraine realistically take back Crimea

Realistic, as in militarily realistic?

Maybe, though fairly difficult.

Realistic, as in Putin won't use tactical nukes?

Very unlikely. Losing Crimea would guarantee the end of Putin's regime. Losing Kherson, Kharkov oblast etc. does not.

Coupled with the fact that most Crimean residents (even pre-2014) are ethnically Russian, and in favor of being part of the RF ever since Euromaidan, I don't see how it would be worth it.

Some Americans here mentioning they are just pro-RU Ukrainian separatists makes no sense if one is familiar with how ethnic identities work in some parts of the World. A Russian born in Ukraine is Russian. A Croat born in Bosnia is still Croat. Nationality and ethnicity are different in these parts compared to the US.

It pains me to say this, but conceding/recognizing Crimea as Russian territory in exchange for the return of all other Crimean land and all of their many thousands of kidnapped citizens might be a way to achieve peace once the Ukraine has beaten Russia out of the other occupied portions of the country. It's enough to save Putin enough face to declare the victory with their concession on Ukraine and not suffer a coup. Not that I don't wish to see him rotting in hell, I just wish to see Ukraine unconquered and at peace.

Why are people so concerned with allowing a brutal dictator to "save face"! This is a war that he and his political/military advisors decided on, and they must face the consequences of their actions. If we allow  Russia to "save face" and "declare victory", we might as well just invite another such war. If any tin pot dictator can invade their neighbor, and made bold, blackmailing threats, and have all those that could stop their war of aggression kowtow and call for "negotiated settlements" and advocating for peace over war, we might as well just give them all a green light to do the same as Putin. The only way that Ukraine will ever have peace from Russia is if Russia is not permitted to "save face" or "declare victory", but rather Ukraine will only have a lasting peace if Russia is totally and utterly defeated, with Russia leaving all of Ukrainian territory.

I hear you, and the best case scenario might be a un sponsor referendum which I think after the war and people relocating the Ukraine would probably win. But the one reason why it is important, sadly, to allow Putin to say face here is threat of military losing cry me out would probably be enough for him to launch Tactical nukes. I've been foremost among people saying call his bluff when he's rattled his saber over this throughout the last 6 Plus months, but again Crimea is probably a bridge too far.

[Hindsight was 2020]

“Putin would start nuclear armageddon over Crimea” and “ Putin is a rational enough actor that Ukraine can sign a peace deal with him and not immediately be invaded afterwards” is a bit of a contradicted line of thinking no?

[Badger]

“Putin would start nuclear armageddon over Crimea” and “ Putin is a rational enough actor that Ukraine can sign a peace deal with him and not immediately be invaded afterwards” is a bit of a contradicted line of thinking no?

Note I said tactical nukes.  Big difference,  but still obviously alarming.

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile Russia is grabbing men off the streets even in Moscow to get numbers to fight in Putin's Invasion and Occupation of Ukraine 2.0...

So much more, especially if you go to the total bottom link of this post.

Russia is literally trying to ship off homeless people and FNB activists to fight in Ukraine...

Volunteered to support FNB when I was a bit of a traveler way back in the dayz, but well if this is what Russia is trying to do to support their "partial mobilization" in Ukraine, they are clearly running into massive issues when it comes to quality of candidate recruiting for those destined to fight and die on the front lines to protect Putin's Ego, or perhaps his d**k (Lower Case Deliberate Intention).

Three weeks after the start of the mobilization, Muscovites began to report the appearance of police and military registration and enlistment office employees in the most unexpected places - at points of assistance to the homeless and the needy, cheap hostels where labor migrants settle, at rehearsal bases and in office centers. Mediazona collected these messages.

Left-wing Moscow activists from the Food Not Bombs initiative distribute food every Sunday to the needy in the square near the Kursky railway station, where there are often many homeless people. After another such distribution on October 9, they wrote : one of the wards of the initiative said that they were trying to mobilize the homeless.

According to him, on the evening of October 8, the police arrived at the Hangar of Salvation of the Orthodox Relief Service "Mercy", took away the passports of the homeless, loaded them onto buses and took them away. Later, men over 50 were released. Those who did not have passports were taken to the police station.

The next day, October 10, Food Not Bombs activists recorded an interview with a homeless man who had avoided mobilization due to his age.

https://zona.media/article/2022/10/11/homeless

(25-30) years ago volunteered for Food Not Bombs to provide food for the Homeless, while at that time being a bit of a traveler myself.

Here are some English translations from the original sources...

We talked to two homeless people at the Angara.


Woman: Today, the 10th. There is a bus, the police enter the Hangar, one in civilian clothes, and the other in uniform, and they take away the documents. They've been coming here for 3 days now. The opera is asked: are there any documents, a military ID and how old. 15-20 people are taken away.


- We just asked the head of the Angara, he said that no one was ever taken away from here, only the district policemen come to check the documents.



Man: The police come here, they don't ask anyone. They see a queue of people for feeding - and they take it by the scruff of the neck, against the will of the people.


- Were there any cases of beatings?



Man: It wasn't, it wasn't. So, a little bit of force will be used and that's it.


- Is anyone coming back?



Woman: A 60-year-old man was taken away, then he returned, he was released. He told me that they were being taken to the military commissariat and there were a lot of people called up for war, standing in line. He was told that he did not fit in age, they took up to 45 years.


- And if a person does not have documents, is he still taken away?



- We are not erudite in this matter.


Man: From about 12 to 3 food is distributed here. Come tomorrow and see for yourself. This is not consistent with either the church or the volunteers. A squad arrives, they drive people into the bus, and the bus is already sorted out

Woman: My husband is 45 years old and my son is 23 years old. I'm so scared, you can't even imagine what's going on with me.

https://telegra.ph/Mobilizaciya-bezdomnyh-v-Moskve-10-10

[OSR stands with Israel]

“Putin would start nuclear armageddon over Crimea” and “ Putin is a rational enough actor that Ukraine can sign a peace deal with him and not immediately be invaded afterwards” is a bit of a contradicted line of thinking no?

I mean many armistices have been signed with non rational actors including the one that ended the Korean War.

Also the reason you cant be invaded afterwards is in this sense , the Ukrainians would be continued to be armed to the teeth to stop another potential invasion.