Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/07/ukraine-kherson-offensive-casualties-ammunition/

"Wounded Ukrainian soldiers reveal steep toll of Kherson offensive"

The soldiers said they lacked the artillery needed to dislodge Russia's entrenched forces and described a yawning technology gap with their better-equipped adversaries. 

"We lost five people for every one they did," said Ihor, a 30-year-old platoon commander who injured his back when the tank he was riding in crashed into a ditch.

Russian electronic warfare also posed a constant threat. Soldiers described ending their shifts and turning on their phones to call or text family members — a decision that immediately drew Russian artillery fire.

To be fair this article also points out which is old news

In a statement on Monday, a Kremlin-backed occupation authority said that plans for a staged referendum in the Kherson region, a precursor to Russian annexation, were put on hold due to security issues. The Russian statement was later walked back, but it gave the Ukrainians optimism and suggested that, at the least, the counteroffensive was causing some disarray for the Russians.

[jaichind]

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/7/almost-all-ukrainian-grain-reaching-european-nations-putin

"‘Almost all’ Ukrainian grain reaching European nations: Putin"

Putin claims that the Ukraine grain export deal over the Black Sea which was meant for the Third World ended up in the EU.   I guess this is an opening gambit to perhaps reverse the deal.

[jaichind]

Russian source map on Ukraine offensive in Kharkov area.  The encirclement operation seems to be in full swing with some distance to go

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/7/almost-all-ukrainian-grain-reaching-european-nations-putin

"‘Almost all’ Ukrainian grain reaching European nations: Putin"

Putin claims that the Ukraine grain export deal over the Black Sea which was meant for the Third World ended up in the EU.   I guess this is an opening gambit to perhaps reverse the deal.

Could he be trying to win more soft power support in the Third World by painting Ukraine as dishonest?

[jaichind]

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/7/almost-all-ukrainian-grain-reaching-european-nations-putin

"‘Almost all’ Ukrainian grain reaching European nations: Putin"

Putin claims that the Ukraine grain export deal over the Black Sea which was meant for the Third World ended up in the EU.   I guess this is an opening gambit to perhaps reverse the deal.

Could he be trying to win more soft power
 support in the Third World by painting Ukraine as dishonest?

With Putin you never know.  This could be true and he is trying to gain points with the Third World and squeeze EU at the same time. OR this is not true and he is making it up to try to back out of the Ukraine grain export deal.  Both are possible.

[Mehmentum]

Definitely the biggest development in the war since Russia pulled out of the north.  The spectrum of possible outcomes is huge right now, we just have to see where the chips land.

[Storr]

More grateful civilians:
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1567952064239763459?s=20&t=7DfZarK...

Twitter comments say the soldiers and locals are both speaking Russian, which is fits for Kharkiv Oblast (44.3% Russian speaking in the 2001 Census).

https://twitter.com/aftertwentea/status/1567956776917807104?s=20&t=7DfZarKai...

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1567916735054991360?s=20&t=4n8dmIXl...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1567916735054991360?s=20&t=4n8dmIXl...

That's Baghdad Bob level stuff.

[jaichind]

https://bulgarianmilitary.com/amp/2022/09/08/polands-vice-minister-of-defense-expects-war-with-russia/

"Poland’s Vice-Minister of Defense expects war with Russia"

To be clear he said in 3 to 10 years

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1567988834918350855
Also rumblings that Ukraine has taken Hrushivka as well 👀

[Badger]

Alright. So I have been carefully assessing what has been going on the past 10 days without making any bold analysis. And to be honest, I still view this as a standstill or a tug of war.

Yes, it is a totally rational and not at all trollish response to an overwhelming slew of reports about downright sweeping Ukrainian advances to consider this offensive "a standstill".

[Badger]

bilaps probably ain't happy about Balakliya!

Insert Nelson Munce haha gif

[Badger]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/07/ukraine-kherson-offensive-casualties-ammunition/

"Wounded Ukrainian soldiers reveal steep toll of Kherson offensive"

The soldiers said they lacked the artillery needed to dislodge Russia's entrenched forces and described a yawning technology gap with their better-equipped adversaries.

"We lost five people for every one they did," said Ihor, a 30-year-old platoon commander who injured his back when the tank he was riding in crashed into a ditch.

Russian electronic warfare also posed a constant threat. Soldiers described ending their shifts and turning on their phones to call or text family members — a decision that immediately drew Russian artillery fire.

To be fair this article also points out which is old news

In a statement on Monday, a Kremlin-backed occupation authority said that plans for a staged referendum in the Kherson region, a precursor to Russian annexation, were put on hold due to security issues. The Russian statement was later walked back, but it gave the Ukrainians optimism and suggested that, at the least, the counteroffensive was causing some disarray for the Russians.

Count on " I believe might makes right" Slytherchind to always root for the most profoundly evil forces out there.

[Frodo]

I read there are up to 20,000 Russian soldiers currently west of the Dneiper posted in and around Kherson.  If Ukraine succeeds in trapping them in a mini-Operation Uranus, and eventually forces them to surrender, how would that impact the rest of the war in Ukraine?  I see it personally as a turning point.  Even with the bottom-of-the-barrel reinforcements Putin is sending to Ukraine, he still won't have enough to maintain Russia's conquests in the east, and will be lucky to retain Crimea when this is all over.  

[AndyHogan14]

I read there are up to 20,000 Russian soldiers currently west of the Dneiper posted in and around Kherson.  If Ukraine succeeds in trapping them in a mini-Operation Uranus, and eventually forces them to surrender, how would that impact the rest of the war in Ukraine?  I see it personally as a turning point.  Even with the bottom-of-the-barrel reinforcements Putin is sending to Ukraine, he still won't have enough to maintain Russia's conquests in the east, and will be lucky to retain Crimea when this is all over.  

If Ukraine is able to retake Crimea at any point in the next year or so, that might be enough for Putin to trip and “fall” out a window. That would be such a monumental blow to him and his regime. If the Ukrainians are able to capture even half of the forces west of the Dnipro then the possibility of retaking the peninsula would go up exponentially. Let’s hope it happens.

[Storr]

Smart move, in light of the current circumstances. Vovchansk is literally 7 kilometers from the Russian border:

https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1567974465488707584?s=20&t=6rVgpjr8vB...

[NOVA Green]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/07/ukraine-kherson-offensive-casualties-ammunition/

"Wounded Ukrainian soldiers reveal steep toll of Kherson offensive"

The soldiers said they lacked the artillery needed to dislodge Russia's entrenched forces and described a yawning technology gap with their better-equipped adversaries. 

"We lost five people for every one they did," said Ihor, a 30-year-old platoon commander who injured his back when the tank he was riding in crashed into a ditch.

Russian electronic warfare also posed a constant threat. Soldiers described ending their shifts and turning on their phones to call or text family members — a decision that immediately drew Russian artillery fire.

To be fair this article also points out which is old news

In a statement on Monday, a Kremlin-backed occupation authority said that plans for a staged referendum in the Kherson region, a precursor to Russian annexation, were put on hold due to security issues. The Russian statement was later walked back, but it gave the Ukrainians optimism and suggested that, at the least, the counteroffensive was causing some disarray for the Russians.

Thank you for not crediting me for an article which I had posted upthread.

I attempt to at least review other posters updates prior to posting on topics, but I'll give you a "hall pass" on this one, since you do provide quite a bit of decent content, especially involving the financial and the "Macro-Economics" involved and arguably from a really solid perspective there.

[Storr]

The one old man who was on his knees got to me:https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1567936769127063552?s=20&t=nSflZyT1sVQ...

Thanks to smart people on the internet, the location of this video has already been geolocated and it's in Borivske, 19km (13km as the crow flies) from Kupyansk:

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1568025426924118019?s=20&t=TNPETBU...

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1568026322831564801?s=20&t=TNPETBU...

[DINGO Joe]

Hello

https://mobile.twitter.com/LvivJournal/status/1567974442856513536

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1568026439382929409?s=20&t=xY13g2o4pi6...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Off to The Hague hopefully!

https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1568035564452024321?t=e8FWFS5mT9d6FgITZn...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Does Ukraine have any major hostages it could demand in exchange?

[Logical]

TOP SECRET UKRAINIAN PLAN FOR THE KHARKIV OFFENSIVE FOUND ON A DONATED GERMAN PZH 2000

[jaichind]

Thank you for not crediting me for an article which I had posted upthread.

I attempt to at least review other posters updates prior to posting on topics, but I'll give you a "hall pass" on this one, since you do provide quite a bit of decent content, especially involving the financial and the "Macro-Economics" involved and arguably from a really solid perspective there.

Oh, sorry about that.  I must have missed it.  My mistake.