Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[NOVA Green]

Once again Russian forces seize a town, hold the mayor hostage and then end up realizing that the local residents don't want them there...

Russian forces seized Slavutych, a northern town close to the Chernobyl nuclear site, on Saturday and took its mayor, Yuri Fomichev, prisoner. However, after failing to disperse the numerous protesters in the main square on Saturday – despite deploying stun grenades and firing overhead – the Russian troops released the mayor and agreed to leave.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/mar/27/russia-ukraine-war-latest-zelenskiy-calls-on-west-for-planes-and-tanks-biden-says-butcher-putin-cannot-remain-in-power-live

[Frodo]

So now Putin is trying to settle for a half-a-loaf since he realized he cannot take the whole country, and wants to split Ukraine in half like Germany after World War II (not sure why the Korean analogy is being used here, though I guess it works too):

Moscow trying to split Ukraine ‘like Korea,’ warns Kyiv as separatists calls for vote to join Russia

[Storr]

Yeah....I'm sure it's a coincidence this garbage like this was written in the middle forced collectivization, which particularly harmed Ukraine, one year before the start of the Holodomor.

https://twitter.com/BBCSteveR/status/1508109587110633481?s=20&t=aiY2nDzQ2VGm...

[NOVA Green]

So now Putin is trying to settle for a half-a-loaf since he realized he cannot take the whole country, and wants to split Ukraine in half like Germany after World War II (not sure why the Korean analogy is being used here, though I guess it works too):

Moscow trying to split Ukraine ‘like Korea,’ warns Kyiv as separatists calls for vote to join Russia

At this point Putin doesn't even have the equivalent of a piece of bread out of Ukraine, but rather a small collection of crumbs.

This includes Crimea + 2 Provinces, which were already mostly under de facto Russian control, parts of cities which have been reduced to rubble, one partially functioning nuclear power plant, and one nuclear waste site from another nuclear power plant.

Considering the sheer cost already expended on the Russian side to achieve these "crumbs", maybe time for him to give up and settle for the 2014 scenario.

[Lord Halifax]

2 Provinces, which were already mostly under de facto Russian control

no, the separatists only controlled a third of each of the two oblasts before the war.

[It’s so Joever]

So now Putin is trying to settle for a half-a-loaf since he realized he cannot take the whole country, and wants to split Ukraine in half like Germany after World War II (not sure why the Korean analogy is being used here, though I guess it works too):

Moscow trying to split Ukraine ‘like Korea,’ warns Kyiv as separatists calls for vote to join Russia

At this point Putin doesn't even have the equivalent of a piece of bread out of Ukraine, but rather a small collection of crumbs.

This includes Crimea + 2 Provinces, which were already mostly under de facto Russian control, parts of cities which have been reduced to rubble, one partially functioning nuclear power plant, and one nuclear waste site from another nuclear power plant.

Considering the sheer cost already expended on the Russian side to achieve these "crumbs", maybe time for him to give up and settle for the 2014 scenario.

A land bride from Crimea to Donetsk is hardly a crumb.

[NOVA Green]

2 Provinces, which were already mostly under de facto Russian control

no, the separatists only controlled a third of each of the two oblasts before the war.

Fair enough, but still what % are actually fully under Russian control even now?

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1508034706125860871?s=20&t=8setpP...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

2 Provinces, which were already mostly under de facto Russian control

no, the separatists only controlled a third of each of the two oblasts before the war.

This is a little complicated: it was about a third of the land area but a clear majority of the population as they were able to take all the major cities other than Mariupol.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Astounding. On the day of the Russian invasion, German Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP) told Ukrainian ambassador Melnyk that cutting off Russia from SWIFT or providing arms for the defense of Ukraine would be "useless" because "you will only last a few hours", all while smiling politely. Lindner thought it would be necessary to already accept the idea that Ukraine would be ruled by a pro-Russian puppet regime. Melnyk calls it "the worst conversation I've had in my life".

Apart from the fact that publicizing this may not improve the bilateral German-Ukrainian relationship... this is not a good look at all for Lindner. And also not for Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht (SPD), who was apparently only concerned about her own image on the day of the invasion. Climate Minister Robert Habeck (Greens), however, seemed to genuinely care about the situation in Ukraine, according to Melnyk.

https://twitter.com/norazabel/status/1507775219162918919?s=20&t=DTw4ZWM8CI5L...

Absolutely shameful. If Lindner has any decency, he needs to resign in short order. If he refuses to, Scholz should ditch the FDP and just do another grand coalition (or GC+Greens).

[Middle-aged Europe]

Astounding. On the day of the Russian invasion, German Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP) told Ukrainian ambassador Melnyk that cutting off Russia from SWIFT or providing arms for the defense of Ukraine would be "useless" because "you will only last a few hours", all while smiling politely. Lindner thought it would be necessary to already accept the idea that Ukraine would be ruled by a pro-Russian puppet regime. Melnyk calls it "the worst conversation I've had in my life".

Apart from the fact that publicizing this may not improve the bilateral German-Ukrainian relationship... this is not a good look at all for Lindner. And also not for Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht (SPD), who was apparently only concerned about her own image on the day of the invasion. Climate Minister Robert Habeck (Greens), however, seemed to genuinely care about the situation in Ukraine, according to Melnyk.

https://twitter.com/norazabel/status/1507775219162918919?s=20&t=DTw4ZWM8CI5L...

Absolutely shameful. If Lindner has any decency, he needs to resign in short order. If he refuses to, Scholz should ditch the FDP and just do another grand coalition (or GC+Greens).

None of that is gonna happen though.

[NOVA Green]

So now Putin is trying to settle for a half-a-loaf since he realized he cannot take the whole country, and wants to split Ukraine in half like Germany after World War II (not sure why the Korean analogy is being used here, though I guess it works too):

Moscow trying to split Ukraine ‘like Korea,’ warns Kyiv as separatists calls for vote to join Russia

At this point Putin doesn't even have the equivalent of a piece of bread out of Ukraine, but rather a small collection of crumbs.

This includes Crimea + 2 Provinces, which were already mostly under de facto Russian control, parts of cities which have been reduced to rubble, one partially functioning nuclear power plant, and one nuclear waste site from another nuclear power plant.

Considering the sheer cost already expended on the Russian side to achieve these "crumbs", maybe time for him to give up and settle for the 2014 scenario.

A land bride from Crimea to Donetsk is hardly a crumb.

A "land bride" or "land bridge" (Assuming was a typo but still ironic regardless verbiage) is still relative crumbs.

Basically the Russian economy is almost guaranteed to be virtually locked out of the global market place for decades, with even potential options of selling commodities to China or India, as well as smaller countries in the world unable to replace the massive lost of exports to Europe and elsewhere, even assuming the "sanctions regime" doesn't expand into the real of "secondary sanctions".

The Russian economy going deeper and deeper into shambles, with import-substitution initiatives unable to supply even many basic consumer goods, such as automobiles let alone having much in the way of a domestic civilian air fleet.

Even Russian consumers who still might be able to afford the cheaper Chinese knock-off cell-phones and laptops to replace electronic brands such as Apple, Samsung, and HP, might well experience significant supply-chain issues as even the Chinese replacements frequently involve parts and IP owned/manufactured elsewhere.

Only a month into the War in Ukraine and Russia has effectively lost as many casualties as during their entire ~(10) year war in Afghanistan, not to mention the sheer loss of military hardware such as 300+ tanks (Oryx numbers), which approximates virtually the entire current French Tank inventory and 50% of the UK Tank inventory...

If the idea was that somehow regions of Eastern Ukraine would welcome Russian troops as liberators into their cities appears to have been some sort of "pipe dream, with in fact the reverse situation transpiring in the overwhelming majority of Russian Occupied parts of Ukraine since this latest war started.

Meanwhile, my original statement still stands, that whatever Russia has "won" are crumbs, especially when compared and contrasted to what they have lost.

Sure... odds are pretty high that at some point within the next couple weeks Mariupol will fall.

Great glorious victory for the Russian Army!!!

Still, reality is that they "destroyed the city in order to save it", with no working infrastructure, almost all of the population evacuated, and basically would be ruling over an entire pile of rubble which will likely take decades to rebuild, with the kind of money that Russia doesn't have.

If this is somehow more than crumbs for Russia it is a pyrrhic victory indeed, by any stretch of the imagination.

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1508083603565162499?s=20&t=8setpP...

[Torie]

Well the Italians seem to have liked the Putin must go Biden gaffe, but next to nobody else does, some observing that it plays right into the Putin narrative. While I don't think the gaffe means squat, I am glad that Macron seems to be the point person in dealing with Putin. The less Biden says the better. He can limit his speaking through his deeds as it were, or let Blinken speak for him.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/27/world/ukraine-russia-war#in-europe-the-reaction-to-bidens-putin-comments-is-mixed

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/OeyGeorge/status/1507904154282655746


https://twitter.com/AlexLuck9/status/1507555028487192576


https://twitter.com/Judmir3/status/1507811877568536578

[Storr]

This group of Ukrainian soldiers were quite excited to receive a Swedish AT-4.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1508136220135768066?s=20&t=4qs51sx...

Translation according to reddit:

Are you filming?

Ah ok.

(Starts unboxing)

What is that anyway?

Some American stuff I am pretty sure, I guess

(From crowd)

For sure

Most important hope it won’t explode now

It will not

(From crowd) Really fashionable case/cover (touches it)

Faster Faster

No (sh**t)! it is not American

This is Swede!!! (very enthusiastic)

(From crowd)

Is that that Italian plastic grenade? (with sarcasm)

(From crowd) Which side? (Laughing)

I think it Swedish

Although, I do not know which version it is

(Continues unboxing)
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/tpjo35/comment/i2bntf5/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

[Torrain]

Shameless, just like with Crimea.

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1508069653796601860?s=20&t=91tQk76PGLChsvg_XpDotQ

Alas, if the Putin’s inner circle had any sense of shame, there would most likely not have been an invasion to begin with, let alone the war crime-ridden horror it’s become.

[NOVA Green]

This group of Ukrainian soldiers were quite excited to receive a Swedish AT-4.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1508136220135768066?s=20&t=4qs51sx...

Translation according to reddit:

Are you filming?

Ah ok.

(Starts unboxing)

What is that anyway?

Some American stuff I am pretty sure, I guess

(From crowd)

For sure

Most important hope it won’t explode now

It will not

(From crowd) Really fashionable case/cover (touches it)

Faster Faster

No (sh**t)! it is not American

This is Swede!!! (very enthusiastic)

(From crowd)

Is that that Italian plastic grenade? (with sarcasm)

(From crowd) Which side? (Laughing)

I think it Swedish

Although, I do not know which version it is

(Continues unboxing)
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/tpjo35/comment/i2bntf5/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Lolz...

Reminds me a bit of a Christmas type scene where there are so many presents coming in as "group presents" for the Grandkids, where people are just trying to figure out which distant relative sent the presents in the first place.

Seriously however, the sheer amount of military hardware flowing into Ukraine right now from a large number of different countries, is just starting to hit the front-lines with many more items on delivery mode.

Naturally for front-line Ukrainian troops, Anti-Tank weaponry is "Gold Standard" since it can be used against a wide array of Russian targets.

Not sure what the various learning curves are for different pieces of gear, but would imagine an anti-tank system would likely be relatively similar to any Ukrainian rank & file member of their military.

Logistically, the biggest problem for Ukraine would be to move military hardware closer to the front-lines on the Southern and Eastern fronts, where some of their most experienced combat troops are currently fighting hard against experienced and veteran Russian forces...

Still, meanwhile Ukrainian forces who have been conducting Guerrilla raids against Russian vulnerable supply convoys are still looking for more items such as civilian off-road vehicles donated by Europeans locally in order to continue their mobile counter-offensive operations. (Apologies can't find the link right this second, but a real deal nonetheless).

[Torrain]

Frankly surreal debates being held on Russia 1 (primary state-owned media channel):
https://mobile.twitter.com/carlbildt/status/1508111683323113479

Most potent quote: “Because if you failed with Ukraine, then how do you threaten NATO? Why do you threaten the US? You could not deal with Zelensky, so what are you?

The guy follows it up with a “final countdown” remark that could mean anything from Putin standing down to pressing the nuclear button (I don’t have enough context from this subtitled clip to draw any real conclusions).

It’s very likely that the speaker, Vladimir Solovyov (a key Putin propagandist), is arguing against a truce/armistice with Ukraine, and pressing for further bloodshed. To be clear, he’s not taking a moral stance.

But for this kind of primetime commentary to be aired, essentially suggesting that the war has humiliated Putin, and that he will lose credibility if they fail, is remarkable.

[NOVA Green]

Zelensky does an interview with Russian Independent Media Outlets, and Putin attempts to "ban the interview".

WP:

Russia’s communications regulator and Internet censor, Roskomnadzor, has warned Russian media outlets not to publish a new interview with the Ukrainian president.

The statement posted on the agency’s Telegram page comes after President Volodymyr Zelensky participated in an interview with Russian journalists — posting the discussion to his own Telegram channel on Sunday.

In the interview, Zelensky called on Russian President Vladimir Putin to meet him in a neutral country for eventual negotiations to end the war. He also called on Russians to “support the truth.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/27/russia-ukraine-war-news-putin-live-updates/#link-P63GYDECFNFP7BCAC4VOB2BE2Y

The Guardian:

The full interview with Volodymyr Zelenskiy, already the subject of a crackdown by the Russian government on the media outlets involved, is available here with English subtitles.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/mar/27/russia-ukraine-war-latest-zelenskiy-calls-on-west-for-planes-and-tanks-biden-says-butcher-putin-cannot-remain-in-power-live

https://twitter.com/natynettle/status/1508130753812606980?s=20&t=2gkqlRO5ADZ...

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1508188771031863298?s=20&t=PfwjjTJ3do...

[NOVA Green]

"Meanwhile down in subvert city", protest continue within Russia, albeit more like individual protests against the war.

EDIT: Forgot to add link to the British band The Subhumans and song Subvert City.

https://ovd.news/news/2022/03/02/russian-protests-against-war-ukraine-chronicle-events

Here's a link to their broader page, with is not exclusive to Ukraine War related items.

https://ovd.news/

I am not even going to bother to quote, since last time I did--- ended up getting my post moderated and cut, despite the fact that this is a non-profit Russian based Human Rights Organization currently spreading the news from somewhere within one of the Baltic States, so I guess quoting in full from a Russian Human Rights Organization is somehow currently against the Atlas T&C's

Whatever...time marches on.

[Torie]

Frankly surreal debates being held on Russia 1 (primary state-owned media channel):
https://mobile.twitter.com/carlbildt/status/1508111683323113479
Most potent quote: “Because if you failed with Ukraine, then how do you threaten NATO? Why do you threaten the US? You could not deal with Zelensky, so what are you?

The guy follows it up with a “final countdown” remark that could mean anything from Putin standing down to pressing the nuclear button (I don’t have enough context from this subtitled clip to draw any real conclusions).

It’s very likely that the speaker, Vladimir Solovyov (a key Putin propagandist), is arguing against a truce/armistice with Ukraine, and pressing for further bloodshed. To be clear, he’s not taking a moral stance.

But for this kind of primetime commentary to be aired, essentially suggesting that the war has humiliated Putin, and that he will lose credibility if they fail, is remarkable.

That is what makes this all unusually high risk. The mentality in certain Russian circles, is either win the war, and make Ukraine a vassal state, or the Russia we know that we love, our culture, our history, will die and Russia will have no further meaning as it is rendered into the ash heap of history.

My take is that this is a symptom of the disease of national exceptionalism. The mentality of national exceptionalism is one of those myths that can become very dangerous. I am looking at you now America on that one, least you become in pari delicto, cf Trump. Check your privilege at the door. I might add that when the French indulged in it, I found them particularly annoying. But they seem to have found the right antidote.

[It’s so Joever]

This group of Ukrainian soldiers were quite excited to receive a Swedish AT-4.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1508136220135768066?s=20&t=4qs51sx...

Translation according to reddit:

Are you filming?

Ah ok.

(Starts unboxing)

What is that anyway?

Some American stuff I am pretty sure, I guess

(From crowd)

For sure

Most important hope it won’t explode now

It will not

(From crowd) Really fashionable case/cover (touches it)

Faster Faster

No (sh**t)! it is not American

This is Swede!!! (very enthusiastic)

(From crowd)

Is that that Italian plastic grenade? (with sarcasm)

(From crowd) Which side? (Laughing)

I think it Swedish

Although, I do not know which version it is

(Continues unboxing)
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/tpjo35/comment/i2bntf5/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Ultra Rare Crate unboxing video, YOU WONT BELIEVE WHAT I FOUND!!!

[Storr]

Frankly surreal debates being held on Russia 1 (primary state-owned media channel):
https://mobile.twitter.com/carlbildt/status/1508111683323113479

Most potent quote: “Because if you failed with Ukraine, then how do you threaten NATO? Why do you threaten the US? You could not deal with Zelensky, so what are you?

The guy follows it up with a “final countdown” remark that could mean anything from Putin standing down to pressing the nuclear button (I don’t have enough context from this subtitled clip to draw any real conclusions).

It’s very likely that the speaker, Vladimir Solovyov (a key Putin propagandist), is arguing against a truce/armistice with Ukraine, and pressing for further bloodshed. To be clear, he’s not taking a moral stance.

But for this kind of primetime commentary to be aired, essentially suggesting that the war has humiliated Putin, and that he will lose credibility if they fail, is remarkable.

"It [Russia] has no right to lose."

Well...then win?