Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[NOVA Green]

Naturally thinking about the Cultural Front, now that it looks like this War is Currently the most deadly for USSR Soldiers since the Russian War in Afghanistan.

Naturally, many conscripts who fought and died in Afghanistan, in what was effectively a ten year war, were certainly not exclusively "Russians".

Still perhaps time to rewind the clock and play what was arguably an Anti-Afghan war song from the band Kino, which is widely considered one of the most popular rock & roll bands ever in Russia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kino_(band)

Here's another popular Russian song about the War in Afghanistan:

Yet one more...

Pretty clear that Russian conscripts likely grew up listening to popular anti-afghan war songs, even if they were only growing up as kids....

[Storr]

One thing I've noticed following Russian soldier obituaries and death articles is that a high proportion of deaths seem to be minorities. Ethnic Russians are 80% of the Russian Federation's population. I've been seeing Kazakhs, Buryats, Tatars, Tuvans, Chuvashs, Bashkirs, and of course North Caucasians. It definitely feels like more than 20% of the Russian soldier death posts I've been seeing are ethnic minorities. Maybe it's just which deaths the Ukrainian twitter user I've been following shares from VK (russian knockoff facebook). I'd guess one factor is likely the increased poverty and lack of opportunities for ethnic minorities in Russia leading young men joining the military as a way out, similar to minorities in the United States. Of the 12 poorest federal subjects of Russia by GDP per capita, 10 are ethnic minority Republics.

For example, here's a Tatar who died in Ukraine:

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1506911714255724552?s=20&t=KHaZcORplZqTENGwcgCcaA

And an Ossetian (based on his surname and hometown which is 81.8% Ossetian) from Beslan. He would have been 9 in 2004, so he may have survived the terrorist school siege and bungled police response.

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1506872283096354817?s=20&t=KHaZcORplZqTENGwcgCcaA

Not surprising at all. The army is seen as a pathway for social mobility in the poorer rural areas. The pay isn't great, but it's a steady job with plenty of opportunities to skim some money on top off it. There is also the demographic factor as the only places with above replacement fertility rates since the fall of the Soviet Union are the peripheral non Slavic areas. Finally there is the socioeconomic factor where despite being the pride of the nation, serving in the Armed Forces is seen as something for poor people. The middle and upper class Muscovites has and will employ every mean they have to evade being conscripted!

For example, I know someone from Moscow, solidly middle class, who bought a white ticket (medical exemption pass) from the recruiting office in 2014.

I actually found an article touching on this issue. It's from the Jamestown Foundation, which the Kremlin has labeled "anti-Russian" before. I'm slowly getting through a 2017 publication they released titled "Russia In Decline". So there's definitely bias in their reporting, and they've focused non-Russian minority issues before, particularly in the Caucasus.

But, I'm surprised to find anything about the disproportionate numbers of non-Russians in the Russian military, and disproportionate casualties in the current war. Their explanation for the discrepancy is basically what was discussed in this thread:

"The share of non-Russians among draftees and contract soldiers in the Russian military has risen over the last several decades as the share of the prime draft-age cohort has shifted against the ethnic Russians (see EDM, February 10, 17, 2022) and even more because many non-Russians, especially in the North Caucasus, are far more eager to serve than are ethnic Russians, who have better life chances. On the one hand, poverty and unemployment in their regions are far higher than elsewhere; and on the other hand, many North Caucasians need to have served in uniform in order to have “the military ticket” that will allow them to work for the police in their republics, often the best job they can aspire to at present (see EDM, November 28, 2012)."

https://jamestown.org/program/potential-wildcard-in-ukrainian-conflict-russian-army-not-ethnically-homogeneous/

[It’s so Joever]

One thing I've noticed following Russian soldier obituaries and death articles is that a high proportion of deaths seem to be minorities. Ethnic Russians are 80% of the Russian Federation's population. I've been seeing Kazakhs, Buryats, Tatars, Tuvans, Chuvashs, Bashkirs, and of course North Caucasians. It definitely feels like more than 20% of the Russian soldier death posts I've been seeing are ethnic minorities. Maybe it's just which deaths the Ukrainian twitter user I've been following shares from VK (russian knockoff facebook). I'd guess one factor is likely the increased poverty and lack of opportunities for ethnic minorities in Russia leading young men joining the military as a way out, similar to minorities in the United States. Of the 12 poorest federal subjects of Russia by GDP per capita, 10 are ethnic minority Republics.

For example, here's a Tatar who died in Ukraine:

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1506911714255724552?s=20&t=KHaZcORplZqTENGwcgCcaA

And an Ossetian (based on his surname and hometown which is 81.8% Ossetian) from Beslan. He would have been 9 in 2004, so he may have survived the terrorist school siege and bungled police response.

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1506872283096354817?s=20&t=KHaZcORplZqTENGwcgCcaA

Not surprising at all. The army is seen as a pathway for social mobility in the poorer rural areas. The pay isn't great, but it's a steady job with plenty of opportunities to skim some money on top off it. There is also the demographic factor as the only places with above replacement fertility rates since the fall of the Soviet Union are the peripheral non Slavic areas. Finally there is the socioeconomic factor where despite being the pride of the nation, serving in the Armed Forces is seen as something for poor people. The middle and upper class Muscovites has and will employ every mean they have to evade being conscripted!

For example, I know someone from Moscow, solidly middle class, who bought a white ticket (medical exemption pass) from the recruiting office in 2014.

I actually found an article touching on this issue. It's from the Jamestown Foundation, which the Kremlin has labeled "anti-Russian" before. I'm slowly getting through a 2017 publication they released titled "Russia In Decline". So there's definitely bias in their reporting, and they've focused non-Russian minority issues before, particularly in the Caucasus .

But, I'm surprised to find anything about the disproportionate numbers of non-Russians in the Russian military, and disproportionate casualties in the current war. Their explanation for the discrepancy is basically what was discussed in this thread:

"The share of non-Russians among draftees and contract soldiers in the Russian military has risen over the last several decades as the share of the prime draft-age cohort has shifted against the ethnic Russians (see EDM, February 10, 17, 2022) and even more because many non-Russians, especially in the North Caucasus, are far more eager to serve than are ethnic Russians, who have better life chances. On the one hand, poverty and unemployment in their regions are far higher than elsewhere; and on the other hand, many North Caucasians need to have served in uniform in order to have “the military ticket” that will allow them to work for the police in their republics, often the best job they can aspire to at present (see EDM, November 28, 2012)."

https://jamestown.org/program/potential-wildcard-in-ukrainian-conflict-russian-army-not-ethnically-homogeneous/

See? Russia and America aren’t that different after all!

[Storr]

The usually high number of Russian general deaths in the war (for a "modern" war, anyway) led me to find an obscure British book published in 1998: Fallen Soviet Generals : Soviet General Officers Killed in Battle, 1941-1945. The Great Patriotic War (as it's called in the former Soviet Union) is difficult to understand in it's sheer magnitude from a western European or American perspective. Surprisingly, I also ran across these tweets citing the book.
https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1507817148617572354?s=20&t=I5er_EtEtVzyWcz...

If I'm counting this list correctly, not including posthumus promotions or death due to illness, but including friendly fire, suicide, and accidental death; The US lost 42 generals and admirals in WWII.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._general_officers_and_flag_officers_killed_in_World_War_II

Google Books only gives you a limited preview for Fallen Soviet Generals (darn, capitalism). The e-book is $54. I'm not paying that much for a digital copy of any book. I just bought an ex-library copy in the UK for $28. At least it's not as much as all other physical copies for sale I found, which were >$70. Now the waiting game...

[Storr]

Speaking of Russian casualties, I've seen several who've died that were from Crimea. If anything, Putin only strengthened Ukrainian nationalism by removing the most pro-Russian region (by far) from the country's electorate. Here's 23-year-old Oleg Artemovich Orlov of Kerch, father of two young daughters, who died near Mariupol.

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1507368225880821761?s=20&t=gfbAOVWjuQ1...

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile Dubai and the UAE are the current capitols of Russian sanctioned oligarchs and others flaunting their cash with impunity.

On the tarmac of Dubai airport, half way along its main runway, a small terminal has been doing brisk business this month. Daily flights have disgorged dozens of Russians – many among the wealthiest figures in Vladimir Putin’s inner circle.

A short VIP welcome and limousine ride later, and the oligarchs are into a world that cares little about Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine or the attempts to punish Putin, and has instead willingly embraced his enablers.

Perhaps more than anywhere else in the world, the oligarchs, and other cashed-up Russians are welcome in Dubai, along with their riches, which are flooding to the United Arab Emirates in unprecedented amounts – often via discreet means.

The UAE has not followed western governments in using sanctions as retaliation for the invasion of Ukraine. Bankers, real estate agents, car dealerships and marinas are reporting extraordinary demand for homes, sports cars and mooring space as the influx settles in to an oil-rich monarchy that has charted its own course on Putin’s Russia and is not afraid to expose glaring tensions with the US in doing so.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/mar/26/russia-ukraine-war-zelenskiy-hails-powerful-blows-by-ukrainian-army-as-russia-hints-at-scaling-back-offensive-live

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/26/dubai-throws-open-the-doors-for-the-rich-russians-escaping-sanctions

[NOVA Green]

From the Kyiv Independent:

Dozens of Ukrainian communities, monasteries move to the Orthodox Church of Ukraine. Ukrainian Orthodox Church leader, Metropolitan Epiphanius I of Kyiv, made the announcement via Twitter on March 26. The Ukrainian Orthodox Church reported earlier on March 25 that 28 communities in nine oblasts have officially switched from the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (Moscow Patriarchate) to the independent Orthodox Church of Ukraine since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

https://kyivindependent.com/

Article based upon Twitter feed from the Ukrainian Orthodox Church leader.

https://twitter.com/Epifaniy/status/1507713306852839424?s=20&t=x_ZIeI4KzAJTg...

[CumbrianLefty]

Maybe it was noted above, but Biden saying Putin cannot remain in power, and the  the White House saying that does not mean regime change because Biden meant that Putin cannot have power over Russia's neighbors, is pretty pathetic. If Biden has that much trouble with words that important, he should read his speech word for word. If he meant what he said, then obviously the prep before hand was poor.

Addendum: I see that it was. I still think its pretty embarrassing.

Maybe its just me......but it can be argued this is the US using the same sort of "plausible deniability" schtick that is, after all, regularly deployed by Russia?

But I can see why "senile Biden makes gaffe" is more attractive as a narrative for some

[Middle-aged Europe]

Maybe it was noted above, but Biden saying Putin cannot remain in power, and the  the White House saying that does not mean regime change because Biden meant that Putin cannot have power over Russia's neighbors, is pretty pathetic. If Biden has that much trouble with words that important, he should read his speech word for word. If he meant what he said, then obviously the prep before hand was poor.

Addendum: I see that it was. I still think its pretty embarrassing.

Maybe its just me......but it can be argued this is the US using the same sort of "plausible deniability" schtick that is, after all, regularly deployed by Russia?

But I can see why "senile Biden makes gaffe" is more attractive as a narrative for some

Biden tells it like it is!

[DavidB.]

Astounding. On the day of the Russian invasion, German Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP) told Ukrainian ambassador Melnyk that cutting off Russia from SWIFT or providing arms for the defense of Ukraine would be "useless" because "you will only last a few hours", all while smiling politely. Lindner thought it would be necessary to already accept the idea that Ukraine would be ruled by a pro-Russian puppet regime. Melnyk calls it "the worst conversation I've had in my life".

Apart from the fact that publicizing this may not improve the bilateral German-Ukrainian relationship... this is not a good look at all for Lindner. And also not for Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht (SPD), who was apparently only concerned about her own image on the day of the invasion. Climate Minister Robert Habeck (Greens), however, seemed to genuinely care about the situation in Ukraine, according to Melnyk.

https://twitter.com/norazabel/status/1507775219162918919?s=20&t=DTw4ZWM8CI5L...

[Middle-aged Europe]

Astounding. On the day of the Russian invasion, German Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP) told Ukrainian ambassador Melnyk that cutting off Russia from SWIFT or providing arms for the defense of Ukraine would be "useless" because "you will only last a few hours", all while smiling politely. Lindner thought it would be necessary to already accept the idea that Ukraine would be ruled by a pro-Russian puppet regime. Melnyk calls it "the worst conversation I've had in my life".

Apart from the fact that publicizing this may not improve the bilateral German-Ukrainian relationship... this is not a good look at all for Lindner. And also not for Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht (SPD), who was apparently only concerned about her own image on the day of the invasion. Climate Minister Robert Habeck (Greens), however, seemed to genuinely care about the situation in Ukraine, according to Melnyk.

https://twitter.com/norazabel/status/1507775219162918919?s=20&t=DTw4ZWM8CI5L...

Totally not shocked to hear this about Lindner tbh. He always was a shameless, opportunistic self-promoter.

To be fair though, the earliest calls to supply Ukraine with weapons came indeed from the ranks of the FDP in the form of Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann who probably has a lot more principles and backbone than her party chairman (hence she isn't a member of the cabinet).

The description of Robert Habeck is probably also accurate considering that he did indeed call for military aid to Ukraine in the 2021 Bundestag election campaign which backfired horribly on him back then because it was an extremely unpopular position to take at the time. The Russian invasion of Ukraine finally gave him the leverage to do what he had proposed prior to the election (and more).

[Storr]

Shameless, just like with Crimea.

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1508069653796601860?s=20&t=91tQk76PGLC...

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1508017957397581826?s=20&t=FLWvx9tQv478...

[Logical]

I've seen two videos of war crimes today. The first one is of Russian captives being shot in the legs and interrogated. In the second video there are bodies of Ukrainian POWs lined up, some of them with point blank bullet wonds. This war will get nastier the longer it goes on.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I've seen two videos of war crimes today. The first one is of Russian captives being shot in the legs and interrogated. In the second video there are bodies of Ukrainian POWs lined up, some of them with point blank bullet wonds. This war will get nastier the longer it goes on.

At the same time, there are fewer visible warcrimes than in most wars featuring this kind of indiscriminate bombardment. No execution videos, cannibalism etc. yet, so they’re doing better than Syria.

[Storr]

I've seen two videos of war crimes today. The first one is of Russian captives being shot in the legs and interrogated. In the second video there are bodies of Ukrainian POWs lined up, some of them with point blank bullet wonds. This war will get nastier the longer it goes on.

I've seen claims the shooting Russian POWs in the legs video was fake (of course). I'm not a video expert or anything, but those knee wounds looked pretty real to me...
https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1508109909035995140?s=20&t=1IiFImU7Srt...

[Badger]

Very recently had posted about potential splits within the Eastern Orthodox Church since Russia's attempted Invasion and Occupation of Ukraine.

Nobody on Atlas really payed attention on my initial reports, but looks like a real split might be starting to develop....

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1507856547891888130?s=20&t=WELvyZUd...

PiT in shambles.

[Badger]

I've seen two videos of war crimes today. The first one is of Russian captives being shot in the legs and interrogated. In the second video there are bodies of Ukrainian POWs lined up, some of them with point blank bullet wonds. This war will get nastier the longer it goes on.

Links?not ghoulish, just seeking first hand confirmation

[Badger]

From the Kyiv Independent:

Dozens of Ukrainian communities, monasteries move to the Orthodox Church of Ukraine. Ukrainian Orthodox Church leader, Metropolitan Epiphanius I of Kyiv, made the announcement via Twitter on March 26. The Ukrainian Orthodox Church reported earlier on March 25 that 28 communities in nine oblasts have officially switched from the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (Moscow Patriarchate) to the independent Orthodox Church of Ukraine since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

https://kyivindependent.com/

Article based upon Twitter feed from the Ukrainian Orthodox Church leader.

https://twitter.com/Epifaniy/status/1507713306852839424?s=20&t=x_ZIeI4KzAJTg...

PiT furious

[lfromnj]

I've seen two videos of war crimes today. The first one is of Russian captives being shot in the legs and interrogated. In the second video there are bodies of Ukrainian POWs lined up, some of them with point blank bullet wonds. This war will get nastier the longer it goes on.

Links?not ghoulish, just seeking first hand confirmation

https://youtu.be/eQ_ZBQANFMs

Some stuff seems a bit off and fake.

[Logical]

I've seen two videos of war crimes today. The first one is of Russian captives being shot in the legs and interrogated. In the second video there are bodies of Ukrainian POWs lined up, some of them with point blank bullet wonds. This war will get nastier the longer it goes on.

Links?not ghoulish, just seeking first hand confirmation

The first video is linked above. This is the second one.
https://twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1506352325153148941

[NOVA Green]

Don't believe it's been posted yet, but apparently some Russian troops have been withdrawing to Belarus per this earlier today posted on the NYT.

After a month of intense fighting near Kyiv, some Russian military units are withdrawing through the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone to Belarus to regroup, the Ukrainian military said on Sunday, suggesting the Russian army was using the site of the defunct reactor for logistics.

The Ukrainian military said an unspecified number of units of Russia’s 35th Combined Arms Army, a Russian military term for a large formation, were being pulled back to regroup after suffering losses in the fighting. It said several units were pulling back to the Chernobyl area and then crossing into Belarus, about 10 miles away. It is possible, the statement said, that after the regrouping and strengthening of the units, they will be redeployed in a renewed effort to encircle Kyiv.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/27/world/ukraine-russia-war

[NOVA Green]

A little bit more on the mysterious case of Russian Generals dying at such rates in Ukraine from the WP today....

Jeffrey Edmonds, former director for Russia on the National Security Council and now a senior analyst at the CNA think tank in Washington, said Ukrainian forces appear to be targeting “anyone with gray hair standing near a bunch of antennas,” a signal they may be senior officers.

Oleksiy Arestovych, an adviser to the head of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s office, told The Washington Post the Ukraine army has focused its efforts on “slowing the pace” of the Russian invasion, in part by “beheading” forward command posts, meaning killing, not literally beheading.

Killing senior officers can slow down the Russian advances by “three or four or five days” before new command structures can be put in place, Arestovych said.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/26/ukraine-russan-generals-dead/

[NOVA Green]

Interesting read from early this morning from the Washington Post.

Those of us who have been following the Ukraine situation closely are probably fairly familiar with some of the ongoing issues this has been causing for Russian forces in Ukraine.

It's a pretty long article and not sure how I can really do justice with a few small quotes, but here's a small snippet.

There is evidence that the United States and other NATO countries have provided Ukrainian forces with electronic warfare equipment capable of interrupting Russian transmissions and allowing them to target Russian command posts, said Kostas Tigkos, a Russian military expert at the defense analysis firm Janes Group. By destroying Russia’s communication nodes, the Ukrainians could pressure their adversaries to use less-secure equipment, he said, increasing the likelihood their conversations will be intercepted or their positions triangulated.

While the Russian military has overhauled its military technology in the last two decades, with some emphasis on modernizing its communication hardware, Tigkos said equipment is only part of the equation. “It’s one thing,” he said, “to develop a good radio that works well. It’s another thing to deploy that radio, build a network, and conduct a complex military operation with thousands of moving parts, and have them work together like a symphony.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/03/27/russian-military-unsecured-communications/

[NOVA Green]

Russia is now apparently stealing watches following Swiss sanctions....

Russia seizes Audemars Piguet watches in apparent retaliation for Swiss sanctions

Timepieces worth millions of dollars were taken by FSB agents in Moscow, according to a Swiss paper

Russian agents seized millions of dollars-worth of Audemars Piguet watches in Moscow in an apparent retaliation for Swiss sanctions banning luxury goods exports, Swiss newspaper NZZ am Sonntag reported.

The watches, which can cost more than £700,000 apiece, were seized from the firm’s local premises by special agents from Russia’s FSB on Tuesday, the newspaper said. It cited people familiar with a confidential Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs memo written for members of parliament that apparently gave details of the raid.

Switzerland, home to many of the world’s top watch brands, abandoned its traditional neutral stance and matched EU sanctions banning the export of luxury goods to Russia earlier this month in response to the invasion of Ukraine.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/27/russia-seizes-audemars-piguet-watches-in-apparent-retaliation-for-swiss-sanctions