Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[BlueSwan]

Maybe it was noted above, but Biden saying Putin cannot remain in power, and the  the White House saying that does not mean regime change because Biden meant that Putin cannot have power over Russia's neighbors, is pretty pathetic. If Biden has that much trouble with words that important, he should read his speech word for word. If he meant what he said, then obviously the prep before hand was poor.

Addendum: I see that it was. I still think its pretty embarrassing.

I really have no idea why the White House felt the need to retract anything. What Uncle Joe said was correct.

[NOVA Green]

Looks like there might be another Russian T-90 destroyed (North of Kyiv on Friday) which hasn't been added to Oryx database yet...

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/26/world/ukraine-russia-war/at-the-edge-of-kyiv-ukrainians-show-off-their-counteroffensive

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

[Tintrlvr]

Maybe it was noted above, but Biden saying Putin cannot remain in power, and the  the White House saying that does not mean regime change because Biden meant that Putin cannot have power over Russia's neighbors, is pretty pathetic. If Biden has that much trouble with words that important, he should read his speech word for word. If he meant what he said, then obviously the prep before hand was poor.

Addendum: I see that it was. I still think its pretty embarrassing.

I really have no idea why the White House felt the need to retract anything. What Uncle Joe said was correct.

I wonder if it was choreographed. Have Biden say regime change is needed to scare Putin, but then retract it after that for plausible deniability.

[°Leprechaun]

Maybe it was noted above, but Biden saying Putin cannot remain in power, and the  the White House saying that does not mean regime change because Biden meant that Putin cannot have power over Russia's neighbors, is pretty pathetic. If Biden has that much trouble with words that important, he should read his speech word for word. If he meant what he said, then obviously the prep before hand was poor.

Addendum: I see that it was. I still think its pretty embarrassing.

I really have no idea why the White House felt the need to retract anything. What Uncle Joe said was correct.

[NOVA Green]

Some food for thought regarding Russian current actions in Ukraine from Phillips P. OBrien

"Professor of Strategic Studies, University St Andrews, Author:  How the War was Won, and Second Most Powerful Man in the World. Editor in Chief, War in History"


https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1507731839192023042?s=20&t=uwlJHf...

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1507827773397737480?s=20&t=uwlJHf...

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1507829960496529414?s=20&t=uwlJHf...

[Storr]

F**k around and find out.

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1507812416347906051?s=20&t=nsfRaD8...

Obviously this is some random city duma level official speaking out of his ass giving red meat to the Russian nationalist base. But, it's strikingly idiotic in the context of Russia's (thus far) historically bad military offensive campaign.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Maybe it was noted above, but Biden saying Putin cannot remain in power, and the  the White House saying that does not mean regime change because Biden meant that Putin cannot have power over Russia's neighbors, is pretty pathetic. If Biden has that much trouble with words that important, he should read his speech word for word. If he meant what he said, then obviously the prep before hand was poor.

Addendum: I see that it was. I still think its pretty embarrassing.

I really have no idea why the White House felt the need to retract anything. What Uncle Joe said was correct.

I wonder if it was choreographed. Have Biden say regime change is needed to scare Putin, but then retract it after that for plausible deniability.

What Uncle Joe said violated international relations' first and foremost rule that one shall not influence or intervene in another country's governmental setup - well, at least not publicly and openly that is. It's like the Prime Directive from Star Trek.   The "publicly and openly" part of course denotes that this principle has been ignored too often in history by many different parties to be counted any longer, and at least in the case of the Iraq invasion it wasn't even done in secret anymore.

So maybe more importantly there probably was concern that such statements could fuel Putin's paranoia even further in a "they're after me now!" sense. I too agree with the essence of Uncle Joe's statement though and it should in fact be NATO's/the EU's goal. How official such a goal should be made is a different matter altogether. I mean Russia didn't exactly publicly transmit their intentions to the world either when they conducted desinformation and cyberwarfare campaigns to destabilize Western democracies for these past eight years or so.

[NOVA Green]

Speaking of Gorbachev, has anyone heard from him lately?

Last I heard he was doing Pizza Hut Commercials for $9.99 Pizzas (Now currently costing 1,004 Rubles).

Okay--- actually looks like a Margherita Pizza in Moscow from Pizza Hut is currently running about 419 Rubles, but not quite sure if all of the franchises have been shut down yet (Could be old data).

Either way, I would imagine that Gorbachev is banking a significant amount of $$$ since his Pizza Hut ad from way back just went viral!!!

https://www.globalprice.info/en/?p=russia/food-prices-moscow-restaurants

[Torie]

I found this article from National Review a most excellent repository for food for thought. I link it for those who want to read it. While I normally give my takeaways from an article, when linking it, not this time. Part of it is the bad habit here, there, and everywhere, of cancelling the thoughts if the host has an ideological perspective other than yours.  To the extent that becomes a pandemic everywhere, one day we may wake up and find ourselves far more in Putin’s image than now, probably not however before I am dead. Human wiring is not made for tolerance or a mind open to what is uncomfortable. And no technology or drug is going to change that inclination.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2022/03/how-russias-war-on-ukraine-will-change-the-world/#slide-1

[Frodo]

I found this article from National Review a most excellent repository for food for thought. I link it for those who want to read it. While I normally give my takeaways from an article, when linking it, not this time. Part of it is the bad habit here, there, and everywhere, of cancelling the thoughts if the host has an ideological perspective other than yours.  To the extent that becomes a pandemic everywhere, one day we may wake up and find ourselves far more in Putin’s image than now, probably not however before I am dead. Human wiring is not made for tolerance or a mind open to what is uncomfortable. And no technology or drug is going to change that inclination.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2022/03/how-russias-war-on-ukraine-will-change-the-world/#slide-1

These are the observations that stood out to me the most:

We could be witnessing the death-throes of a superpower. Russia was already declining in so many measurements, from crippling demographic trends to waning economic vitality, some of which its status as a petro-power masked. But now Russia is isolated and discredited; its strategic goals vis-à-vis Ukraine, Europe, and NATO have all spectacularly backfired; its leader is an international pariah; and it could possibly face a reparations penalty for years after the conflict ends in Ukraine. This would be a country whose power and influence could dramatically fade, as it becomes a bigger North Korea with natural resources prized mostly by China.

Energy policy will be more firmly anchored to security policy. Countries will be channeling more Otto von Bismarck than Greta Thunberg in their energy policy. Germany’s decision to mortgage its energy future (and economy) to Russian oil and gas looks to be a strategic blunder of the first order — achieving neither energy security nor a more climate-friendly outcome. Leave aside the squalid spectacle of a former German chancellor on the boards of Russian energy companies. The rapid and sudden movement of much of Germany’s energy supply away from its own nuclear plants to Russian oil and gas made much of this conflict possible by encouraging Putin to believe that he did indeed have Europe in a vise. Our country’s own bad decisions vis-à-vis domestic production and Russian imports to the U.S. also rise to the level of a national-security scandal. Watch for every country to hew its energy policy to its national security in a way we have not seen since the 1970s.

[Lourdes]

https://twitter.com/lesiavasylenko/status/1507296092546908162

[Storr]

I found this article from National Review a most excellent repository for food for thought. I link it for those who want to read it. While I normally give my takeaways from an article, when linking it, not this time. Part of it is the bad habit here, there, and everywhere, of cancelling the thoughts if the host has an ideological perspective other than yours.  To the extent that becomes a pandemic everywhere, one day we may wake up and find ourselves far more in Putin’s image than now, probably not however before I am dead. Human wiring is not made for tolerance or a mind open to what is uncomfortable. And no technology or drug is going to change that inclination.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2022/03/how-russias-war-on-ukraine-will-change-the-world/#slide-1

I'll give my two bits. The section about the possible death-throes of a superpower Frodo already shared, is spot on. The two things Russia always had going for it was oil and a strong military. Now the Russian military has been exposed as a corrupt, antiquated, disorganized, and dysfunctional cheap imitation of the Red Army. Russian nuclear weapons are the only thing preventing a complete Third Reich type disaster.  That's because the west doesn't want to accidentally cause a nuclear war by intervening. Unfortunately, as the article mentions, this war will only encourage despotic regimes to pursue nuclear weapons. Otherwise, they will run the risk becoming the next Saddam.

[NOVA Green]

I found this article from National Review a most excellent repository for food for thought. I link it for those who want to read it. While I normally give my takeaways from an article, when linking it, not this time. Part of it is the bad habit here, there, and everywhere, of cancelling the thoughts if the host has an ideological perspective other than yours.  To the extent that becomes a pandemic everywhere, one day we may wake up and find ourselves far more in Putin’s image than now, probably not however before I am dead. Human wiring is not made for tolerance or a mind open to what is uncomfortable. And no technology or drug is going to change that inclination.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2022/03/how-russias-war-on-ukraine-will-change-the-world/#slide-1

Good article, and although I frequently disagree with their takes on items The National Review is certainly worthy of review periodically.

Although William Buckley is alas no longer with us, it still continues to provide perspectives much better thought out than much of the tripe coming off of Fox News and certain US PUB political figures...

Looks like there is a major gap between their online content versus their hard copy publication?

Curious if you consider one to be higher quality than the other?

[Storr]

Unfortunately, Armenia has a weak and shattered military. Without the Russian brokered peace deal in 2020, they would have been booted out of Nagorno-Karabakh by Azerbaijan. Don't be surprised if Aliyev uses this opportunity to "finish the job", while Russia is preoccupied in Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1507850865213911042?s=20&t=EGd8k9JmAy0...

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1507851414034436098?s=20&t=EGd8k9JmAy0...

[NOVA Green]

Mines from RUS-UKR War now drifting into the Bosporus Straits....

An explosive mine that was said to have drifted from the Black Sea into the Bosporus on Saturday forced a temporary closure of the busy waterway and raised fears that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine could threaten traffic in the strait, a chokepoint for global energy supplies and commerce.

The mine’s provenance was unclear.

Photographs purporting to show the mine depicted what appeared to be a metallic orb with spikes. Turkey’s defense minister, Hulusi Akar, on Saturday described the mine as “old” and said Turkey had been in touch with the Kremlin and Kyiv about its appearance in the Bosporus, the channel between the Mediterranean and the Black Sea, which is bordered by Turkey, Russia and Ukraine.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/26/russia-ukraine-war-news-putin-live-updates/#link-IX52NM2WY5BHTLZ62OUEUDA5F4

[NOVA Green]

Biden met with Belarusian Opposition leader earlier today.

After his speech on Saturday, Biden met with Belarusian opposition leader Svyatlana Tsikhanouskaya, according to the White House.

“He thanked her for attending his speech in Warsaw tonight,” a White House message said. “The President underscored the continued support of the United States for the Belarusian people in defending and advancing human rights, including freedom of expression, and free and fair elections.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/26/russia-ukraine-war-news-putin-live-updates/#link-M7GJ3N6G5BG65KXMWOQAJMLFEM

[Middle-aged Europe]

Haven't found an English-language article/tweet on it yet, but the German government is considering buying the Iron Dome/Arrow 3 missile defense system from Israel.

https://www.n-tv.de/incoming/Bund-soll-Kauf-von-Raketenschutzschild-pruefen-article23226768.html

[NOVA Green]

Washington Post article on Russian Generals Deaths in Ukraine...

Believe I was the first to post about Ukrainian Snipers on this thread...

The war in Ukraine is proving extraordinarily lethal for Russian generals, the gray men bedecked in service medals, who are being aggressively targeted by Ukrainian forces and killed at a rate not seen since World War II.

Ukrainian officials say their forces have killed seven generals on the battlefield, felled by snipers, close combat and bombings.

If true, the deaths of so many generals, alongside more senior Russian army and naval commanders — in four weeks of combat — exceeds the attrition rate seen in the worst months of fighting in the bloody nine-year war fought by Russia in Chechnya, as well as Russian and Soviet-era campaigns in Afghanistan, Georgia and Syria.

“It is highly unusual,” said a senior Western official, briefing reporters on the topic, who confirmed the names, ranks and “killed in action” status of the seven.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/26/russia-ukraine-war-news-putin-live-updates/#link-HWF66W7UXZG4FAOY5VNSNQIYEQ

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1507805561936486400?s=20&t=mIlJ-4gBwh2...

[NOVA Green]

Institute for the Study Of War (ISW) just dropped their daily updates a few minutes back...

...Russian forces continued their unsuccessful efforts to move into positions from which to attack or encircle Kyiv, claims by First Deputy Chief of the Russian General Staff Sergei Rudskoi on March 25 notwithstanding

...

Russian forces will likely bisect the city of Mariupol in the coming days as they claim and will likely gain control of the city in the relatively near future.

...

Ukrainian forces continue to conduct limited counter-attacks across the theater, most recently near Kharkiv.

...

The captured city of Kherson appears to be resisting Russian control in ways that are driving the Russian military and national guard to concentrate forces on securing it.  The requirement to secure captured cities can impose a significant cost on over-stretched Russian forces and hinder their ability to conduct offensive operations.

...

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-26

[Middle-aged Europe]

Don't know if this has been posted yet.


https://mobile.twitter.com/CathyYoung63/status/1507686575462920196

[It’s so Joever]

Don't know if this has been posted yet.


https://mobile.twitter.com/CathyYoung63/status/1507686575462920196

FF.
Wonder how long before she disappears.

[NOVA Green]

Very recently had posted about potential splits within the Eastern Orthodox Church since Russia's attempted Invasion and Occupation of Ukraine.

Nobody on Atlas really payed attention on my initial reports, but looks like a real split might be starting to develop....

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1507856547891888130?s=20&t=WELvyZUd...

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1507805561936486400?s=20&t=mIlJ-4gBwh2...

Who could have guess that an unmistakable material demonstration that every non-NATO neighbor is liable to Russian military action would have prompted Russia’s neighbors to look to NATO?

[Absolution9]

Unfortunately, Armenia has a weak and shattered military. Without the Russian brokered peace deal in 2020, they would have been booted out of Nagorno-Karabakh by Azerbaijan. Don't be surprised if Aliyev uses this opportunity to "finish the job", while Russia is preoccupied in Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1507850865213911042?s=20&t=EGd8k9JmAy0...

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1507851414034436098?s=20&t=EGd8k9JmAy0...

This doesn’t make any sense.  There are 2000 Russian troops in Nagorno Karabahk.  If Azerbaijan attacks, it may be able to overwhelm the Armenians and those troops but Russia could devastate their economy by hitting their oil and gas production/transport infrastructure on the Caspian Sea with cruise and ballistic missiles.  Would also further tighten oil/gas markets as Azerbaijan is a major supplier to Turkey/Europe.