Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

https://twitter.com/meduza_en/status/1502350142812340224

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/meduza_en/status/1502350142812340224

Putin in full "You have failed me!" mode.

Trying to micro-manage the war effort even further is not gonna help though. But it would be good news fort he Ukrainians, I guess.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/4ukraine834614/status/1502321404414472196?ref_src=twsrc%5Etf...

Navy Captain, right? Major doesn’t really seem like a senior officer position.

[Storr]

Dear Lord!  I can see why the Germans waited to conduct their major offensives on the eastern front in the summer. Nor it is a coincidence the major Soviet offensives in Belarus and Ukraine (Operation Bagration and the Dnieper Campaign) were in the summer and fall.

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1502386644934090757?s=20&t=fBrjDr5efSO...

[Middle-aged Europe]

Dear Lord, I can see why the Germans waited to conduct their major offensives on the eastern front in the summer. Nor it is a coincidence the major Soviet offensives in Belarus and Ukraine (Operation Bagration and the Dnieper Campaign) were in the summer and fall.

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1502386644934090757?s=20&t=fBrjDr5efSO...

Putin like...: "There's mud in Ukraine in March?? Why didn't anyone tell me there would be mud in Ukraine?"

Russian generals: *facepalm*

[Storr]

The Kyiv Independent reports a possible Belarussian attack tonight. No clue where exactly this would take place, maybe they would assist in Kyiv area, but what I fear most is a Western Front opening up. That area has a lot of refugees now and while Ukraine has troops over there, they are more concentrated in the East iirc. Would also explain why the bombings of Lutsk and Invano Frankisvk happened last night.

It's 00:45 in Kyiv and 01:45 in Minsk. So I guess this report was wrong? 21:00 is a weird time to start an invasion anyway. The usual time is early morning (see any modern military offensive).

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1502316384272924672?s=20&t=fBrjDr5efSO...

[AndyHogan14]

The Kyiv Independent reports a possible Belarussian attack tonight. No clue where exactly this would take place, maybe they would assist in Kyiv area, but what I fear most is a Western Front opening up. That area has a lot of refugees now and while Ukraine has troops over there, they are more concentrated in the East iirc. Would also explain why the bombings of Lutsk and Invano Frankisvk happened last night.

It's 00:45 in Kyiv and 01:45 in Minsk. So I guess this report was wrong? 21:00 is a weird time to start an invasion anyway. The usual time is early morning (see any modern military offensive).

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1502316384272924672?s=20&t=fBrjDr5efSO...

If the Belarusians do try and open a front in the west with little or no Russian support (and they don't surrender en masse), they will be routed. I am aware that most of the Ukrainian forces are in the east, but considering the quality of the Belarusian military (and that their morale will be even lower than that of the Russians), I have no doubt that the Ukrainians will be able to push them back with relative ease.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I have seen multiple unconfirmed reports that among the Syrians coming to Ukraine are the Tiger Forces. I’m only bothering to mention this because they include photographs - if true, this is quite surprising as they are Assad’s best troops by a very long way. They might actually be useful in Ukraine.

This guy doesn't have a perfect track record, but I'm now reasonably confident that Russia is trying to recruit from the Tiger Forces:

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1502306598034849796
A risk for Assad, but if any Syrian troops could be useful, it'd be these guys. They've been told they'll get the armour/artillery they're familiar with once they're in Ukraine (plausible enough). They led most of the SAA offensives against IS (and most against the rebels after the Russian intervention) and retook Aleppo. Their leader is probably a paedophile, judging by his photos with progressively younger males.

[ugabug]

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1502350416897576967

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1502350416897576967

If I were Poland, I might have bought that line before the US explicitly refused to send the jets themselves on grounds of escalation, but I wouldn't buy it now. Heavier arms might well be sent to Ukraine, but I don't expect this to change anyone's position on sending jets.

[Storr]

Based. (Especially so, because the punishment for speaking against the war is up to 15 years in prison.) Though, I'm guessing the plane (and the pilot) was headed out of Russia since some passengers applauded him.

https://twitter.com/ThatMichaelLand/status/1502338677170655243?s=20&t=omOqWs...

[Storr]

The Kyiv Independent reports a possible Belarussian attack tonight. No clue where exactly this would take place, maybe they would assist in Kyiv area, but what I fear most is a Western Front opening up. That area has a lot of refugees now and while Ukraine has troops over there, they are more concentrated in the East iirc. Would also explain why the bombings of Lutsk and Invano Frankisvk happened last night.

It's 00:45 in Kyiv and 01:45 in Minsk. So I guess this report was wrong? 21:00 is a weird time to start an invasion anyway. The usual time is early morning (see any modern military offensive).

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1502316384272924672?s=20&t=fBrjDr5efSO...

If the Belarusians do try and open a front in the west with little or no Russian support (and they don't surrender en masse), they will be routed. I am aware that most of the Ukrainian forces are in the east, but considering the quality of the Belarusian military (and that their morale will be even lower than that of the Russians), I have no doubt that the Ukrainians will be able to push them back with relative ease.

The Russians publicly made a pledge to support the Belarusians with the "most up to date" equipment. But since we've been seeing 40 year old Russian T-72As being captured and destroyed, consider me skeptical.

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1502408771074678788?s=20&t=omOqWsPGt...

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1502350416897576967

That is amazing news!

If I were Poland, I might have bought that line before the US explicitly refused to send the jets themselves on grounds of escalation, but I wouldn't buy it now. Heavier arms might well be sent to Ukraine, but I don't expect this to change anyone's position on sending jets.

 D*** it tilts. Why do you have to hurt my feelings with a reality check?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I wish there was a better source than the Daily Mail on this...(the main reason I think they're used so frequently now is they're not paywalled) but Putin has apparently ordered the head of the FSB and his deputy under house arrest: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10603045/Putin-places-head-FSBs-foreign-intelligence-branch-house-arrest.html

Perfect! Putin should go ahead and purge the entire upper echelons of Russian intelligence and the military. This guy has to have been a f[inks]ing monster in the first place to even work for the FSB so no tears but it's better if the FSB is ran by a more incompetent monster.

[Storr]

https://www.reddit.com/r/NonCredibleDefense/comments/taxeub/virgin_mig29_vs_chad_turkish_drones/

[Middle-aged Europe]

I wish there was a better source than the Daily Mail on this...(the main reason I think they're used so frequently now is they're not paywalled) but Putin has apparently ordered the head of the FSB and his deputy under house arrest: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10603045/Putin-places-head-FSBs-foreign-intelligence-branch-house-arrest.html

Perfect! Putin should go ahead and purge the entire upper echelons of Russian intelligence and the military. This guy has to have been a f[inks]ing monster in the first place to even work for the FSB so no tears but it's better if the FSB is ran by a more incompetent monster.

Has already been reported on here, and the original source was the Twitter account of Russian journalist Andrei Soldatov: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrei_Soldatov

[Meclazine for Israel]

I suppose bringing in a load of African soldiers to be shot at (and doubtless killed in large numbers) would bolster the "Ukrainians are all racist Nazis" narrative some Putinists are so fond of.

Russia is forming a "Coalition of the Willing" to fight the good fight.

Russian Secretary of State, Colinov Powellsky, just addressed the media with the following 'evidence' of Ukrainian WMD's.



Colinov said that Russian intelligence have intercepted some of the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy' online purchases, and that although it looks like he was purchasing 'Geraniums from Africa', he may have in fact been ordering 'Uranium from Africa'.

Colinov went on to say:

"Numerous human sources tell us that the Iraqis Ukrainians are moving, not just documents and hard drives, but weapons of mass destruction to keep them from being found by inspectors."

"While we were here in this council chamber debating Resolution 1441 last fall, we know, we know from sources that a missile brigade outside Baghdad Kiev was disbursing rocket launchers and warheads containing biological warfare agents to various locations, distributing them to various locations in western Iraq Ukraine. Most of the launchers and warheads have been hidden in large groves of palm trees pine trees and were to be moved every one to four weeks to escape detection."

"We also have satellite photos that indicate that banned materials have recently been moved from a number of Iraqi Ukrainian weapons of mass destruction facilities."

[Frodo]

No word yet on whether Russia is going to be expelled altogether from the World Trade Organization and the International Monetary Fund, though:

Biden moves to reimpose Cold War trade restraints on Russia
The president announced Friday he is working with Congress to revoke favorable U.S. trade treatment for Russia, among other measures.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The WSJ reports: The Ukraine MiG-29 Fiasco Gets Worse - Biden personally vetoed the delivery of jets for fear of provoking Putin.

I don't think this is much of a story (it's written like an opinion piece, tbh), but it is interesting (and a little dispiriting) that the decision to veto it was actively signed off by him to avoid escalation as opposed to being a result of the Pentagon speaking out against it and simply not getting challenged.

[It’s so Joever]

The WSJ reports: The Ukraine MiG-29 Fiasco Gets Worse - Biden personally vetoed the delivery of jets for fear of provoking Putin.

I don't think this is much of a story (it's written like an opinion piece, tbh), but it is interesting (and a little dispiriting) that the decision to veto it was actively signed off by him to avoid escalation as opposed to being a result of the Pentagon speaking out against it and simply not getting challenged.

Words can’t describe how poorly Brandon screwed up. He would sell his grandchild to Putin if asked to.

[dead0man]

The WSJ reports: The Ukraine MiG-29 Fiasco Gets Worse - Biden personally vetoed the delivery of jets for fear of provoking Putin.

I don't think this is much of a story (it's written like an opinion piece, tbh), but it is interesting (and a little dispiriting) that the decision to veto it was actively signed off by him to avoid escalation as opposed to being a result of the Pentagon speaking out against it and simply not getting challenged.

It seemed odd to me at the time that it was the Pentagon saying no.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The WSJ reports: The Ukraine MiG-29 Fiasco Gets Worse - Biden personally vetoed the delivery of jets for fear of provoking Putin.

I don't think this is much of a story (it's written like an opinion piece, tbh), but it is interesting (and a little dispiriting) that the decision to veto it was actively signed off by him to avoid escalation as opposed to being a result of the Pentagon speaking out against it and simply not getting challenged.

It seemed odd to me at the time that it was the Pentagon saying no.

From the timeline, it looks like that they publicly advised against it at first (hence the public statement casting doubt) and then Biden took their advice when asked to make the call.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1502413527579262976

The British and American governments are obviously not neutral actors, but this report tracks with the footage emerging online (I haven't seen any reports jets doing bombing runs over airports, but there have been a fair few cruise missile barrages - total launches probably number in the hundreds or thousands by now). Russia's stock of standoff munitions boils down to glide bombs (they have one type introduced in 2018 - presumably not that many have been produced yet) and ballistic/cruise missiles. Prior to the war, Russia had the world's largest inventory of these missiles if you count recently retired missiles likely to remain in serviceable condition (the Tochkas, for instance, were retired at the end of 2020 but a few Russian launches have happened so far in this conflict).

The upshot for Ukraine is that Russia is likely to run out of these weapons faster than any other kind, and I'd guess the supply of its most modern ballistic missile (the Iskander missile) is likely to be quite low at this point. Outlasting Russia's standoff munitions and having some air defences/air force intact once their stocks are depleted could be critical.

[NOVA Green]

Protests continue in Russian Occupied Ukrainian Cities earlier today... Footage from Melitopol and Berdiansk (Haven't yet tracked down other non-violent protests today elsewhere)



https://twitter.com/oonuch/status/1501932215755698176?s=20&t=lVK0JsZ5GoEdNK-...

https://twitter.com/oonuch/status/1501932258952765447?s=20&t=lVK0JsZ5GoEdNK-...

Encouraging, but I want to see them start collecting scalps.

Who are "they" and whose "scalps" are they supposed to be collecting?

I totally understand and get it and feel the same level of pain and frustration as I read the stories, watch the images of the massive unwarranted and unjustified brutality leveled against not only the Government of Ukraine and military forces, but even more so against civilian populations throughout many parts of Ukraine, and so many actions that from my perspective clearly amount to War Crimes committed by the Russian Regime and Senior Military commanders.

I wish that I had all of the answers for the best ways to stop these atrocities and that the Russian people were able to see what is actually going on and hold those responsible fully accountable for their actions.

Still, I find your comment a bit disturbing, especially within the context of Ukrainian Civilians protesting non-violently in a couple cities under Russian military occupation.

Dehumanization of "the other" has so frequently been the rationale for those who perceive themselves to be aggrieved to then take "righteous revenge" upon the other and frequently turns into and endless cycle of violence and counter-violence.

We see that attitude hardening among many Ukrainians who are growing to hate not just Putin and his stooges, but *all Russians* after having experienced the atrocities at the hand of his war machine.

Fringe groups like the Ukrainian Neo-Nazi / "Far Right" Azov Battalion, which have played a significant role going back to the 2014 War are now producing significant casualties against Russian forces in various theaters of combat, and in many ways helped provide Putin with the "Ukrainians are Neo-Nazis" propaganda BS to sell the "Special Operation" to the Russian public.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Battalion

Although I will continue to cheer Ukrainian resistance in the face of such brutality, I take equal cheer when I see Russians finding ways to challenge and confront the totalitarian nature of their own society as well.

Russian conscripts aren't the real enemy here and within Russia Occupied Ukraine angry and militant protesters marching through the centers of cities using a mixture of Russian and Ukrainian are seen as "real people" from the perspective of the Russian soldier, and not the demons they were made out to be.

 I hear what you're saying, but you can understand some of us rude almost rooting for these folks to pick up do pick up automatic rifles and start picking off Is Russian garrisons. Protests like this are good for civilian morale, but it doesn't affect Putin's push on Russia one g****** bit.

And i'm sorryAnd I'm sorry over the fact that yes not All-russian soldiers are big Putin fans and some eand some even unwilling conscripts. But the same could have been said for German forces in World War II and it didn't make me celebrate Allis deliberate Allied victories in history one iota less.

To be Blunt, let their families mourn for their deaths death. As long as this war continues, I will not, But instead will Is it as evidence of one more reason Vladimir Putin and his Circle of cronies need to be on trial at the Hague.

We're cool Badger. 

Don't want to beat a dead horse, let alone a living one, so let's put it to bed.

If protesters in Russian Occupied Towns choose to go the route of Guerrilla Warfare that's totally their choice with all of the inherent risks involved.

There have already been reports of mass arrests in Kherson for example, as well as a story that I don't believe has been posted yet on this thread about the mayor of Melitopol arrested earlier today (?). Remember I reported about Anti-Occupation demos in that City Yesterday, including one of the videos which received comments from yourself and Yoda....

Ukrainian Foreign Ministry calls "abduction" of Melitopol mayor a "war crime"

The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry published a strongly-worded statement on Facebook, calling the detention of the mayor of Melitopol by armed men a "war crime."

CNN has previously reported that the Melitopol mayor, Ivan Fedorov, was seen on video being led away from a government building in the city by armed men. A short time later, the Russian-backed Luhansk regional prosecutor claimed Fedorov had committed terrorism offenses and was under investigation.

In a statement posted on Facebook, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry called Fedorov's detention an "abduction," saying it is one of the many "gross violations of norms and principles of international law, including international humanitarian law, war crimes and crimes against humanity, as well as other human rights violations by the Russian military."
The Foreign Ministry said that the Geneva Convention and its Additional Protocols prohibit civilian hostages like Fedorov from being taken.

"We call on the international community to respond immediately to the abduction of Ivan Fedorov and other civilians, and to increase pressure on Russia to end its barbaric war against the Ukrainian people," the statement said.

"The fact of the abduction of the Mayor of Melitopol, along with hundreds of other facts of war crimes by Russian occupiers on the Ukrainian soil, are being carefully documented by law enforcement agencies. The perpetrators of this and other crimes will be brought to the strictest responsibility," the post concluded.

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-11-22/h_e04fdf2945a03bb6be5f17c30dcc9c8d

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/4ukraine834614/status/1502321404414472196?ref_src=twsrc%5Etf...

A pair of Captains to add to the list:

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1502445432273838080?s=20&t=XTPPIgDh6TB5J1...

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1502444441335906310?s=20&t=XTPPIgDh6TB5J1...