Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Badger]

Talks in Turkey have collapsed, as per The Guardian.

Well, they've agreed to meet again, although apart from that they couldn't agree on anything else today.

 What they "couldn't agree on today" was literally Ukraine surrendering unconditionally. This is not a both sides failed at diplomacy issue

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Would be huge, though I'm still skeptical. Ukrainian figures are most likely an exaggeration to boost their fighting moral. Didn't the US estimate Russian losses at around 4k 2-3 days ago? Seems more plausible to me.

As noted before, truly accurate figures at this stage in a war aren't even physically possible, but there's nothing obviously implausible about those numbers: people forget what high explosives and automatic weapons do. Two other things to note are that a) this is a much larger war in terms of scale to that which we're used to seeing these days and b) Western and Western-style militaries go to great pains to reduce casualty rates both amongst their own troops which also leads to lower casualty rates amongst their opponents. Democracy acts as a significant restraint on the tactics that such militaries can follow without risk of significant domestic backlash, unless engaged in a war for national survival or the like. This is a severely underrated point in favour of democracy.

[President Johnson]

Scholz and Macron continue to pressure Putin. Furthermore, it seems that former German chancellor and Putin buddy Gerhard Schröder is traveling to Moscow for talks. German government was not informed about this. In recent weeks, pressure on Schröder mounted to quit his jobs on the board of Rosneft and Gazprom.

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1501973662253170689

https://twitter.com/POLITICOEurope/status/1501973968877723652

[afleitch]

During the joint invasion of Poland in 1939 there were about 60,000 German and German allied (including Soviet) troops killed, though to back up Al's point earlier, we still don't actually know the exact figure all these years later. That was a 35 day conflict, with about 1,700 dying each day and that was a total and effective 'Blitzkreig' using shorter range targets and aerial bombing.

In the invasion of France, in which the Blitzkrieg was probably at it's most effective, the Germans lost about 580 troops a day.

So the Russians are probably loosing troops at a comparable rate, because for all the advances in tech, weaponry and armour, they are effectively trying to execute the sort of invasion with the same sort of short range targeting (which is easier for the Ukrainians to defend against) last attempted seventy five years ago.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Lithuania has changed the name of the street its Russian embassy is located on.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Scholz and Macron continue to pressure Putin. Furthermore, it seems that former German chancellor and Putin buddy Gerhard Schröder is traveling to Moscow for talks. German government was not informed about this. In recent weeks, pressure on Schröder mounted to quit his jobs on the board of Rosneft and Gazprom.

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1501973662253170689

https://twitter.com/POLITICOEurope/status/1501973968877723652

I suppose Schröder will only manage to make a laughing stock out of himself.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Good for Poland. (reply intentionally included)

https://twitter.com/SandersVoter/status/1501931057544839168

[President Johnson]

Good for Poland. (reply intentionally included)

https://twitter.com/SandersVoter/status/1501931057544839168

Lmao, they didn't rename the German translation below.

[Person Man]

Good for Poland. (reply intentionally included)

https://twitter.com/SandersVoter/status/1501931057544839168

Lmao, they didn't rename the German translation below.

I just noticed that now.

[NOVA Green]

Russia is banning exports of certain grains to the EEU until 8/31 per The Guardian:

Russia has banned exports of wheat, meslin, rye, barley and corn to the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) until 31 August, the Russian economy ministry said.

Russia’s decision to suspend exports to EEU member countries – Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgystan and Russia itself – is to ensure its home market has enough food, the ministry said.

Russia will also ban sugar exports to third countries until 31 August, but some exceptions would be possible for the EEU countries, the ministry added.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/mar/10/ukraine-news-russia-war-kyiv-vladimir-putin-volodymyr-zelenskiy-russian-invasion-hospital-bombing-latest-live-updates

[NOVA Green]

VPN usage in Russia soars following Ukrainian Invasion per The Economist. (Up 1000% increase on 30 day average)

Russians are trying to escape online censorship

Software that hides a user’s location has soared in popularity since the outbreak of war

A month ago Russia’s most popular apps from the Apple store were broadly similar to the West’s. The top five by downloads showed people in Russia were conferencing on Zoom, messaging on Telegram and scrolling through Instagram. Today the app store looks very different. On March 8th the first three were tools aimed at disguising the user’s location, according to Data.ai, which monitors app downloads across the world. It is a similar story on Google’s Play store, for Android devices, where three of the top five apps are designed to obscure where the user is based, using ruses such as virtual private networks (VPNs).

The sudden popularity of such software follows a tightening of online censorship by Vladimir Putin’s government. On March 4th Russia blocked access to Facebook, after the social network imposed restrictions on Russian state-controlled media on its app. Twitter says its Russian users are reporting difficulty gaining access to its service. TikTok has banned people in Russia from uploading videos, after the passage of a law on March 4th criminalising the dissemination of information about the war that is not the official version. Mainstream media firms such as Netflix have suspended their services. Privacy apps could allow users to circumvent these bans.

VPN downloads are one way to measure concerns over access to the internet during a crisis. At its peak on March 5th, the number of online searches for VPNs in Russia was nearly 12 times the average, according to data from Top10VPN, a VPN review website. Demand in Ukraine peaked on March 2nd, at seven times the usual. The extra stress on Ukrainian servers in wartime has made it harder to use popular social-networking apps, such as Telegram, without a VPN.

....

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/03/10/russians-are-trying-to-escape-online-censorship

[Middle-aged Europe]

VPN usage in Russia sours following Ukrainian Invasion per The Economist. (Up 1000% increase on 30 day average)

Russians are trying to escape online censorship

Software that hides a user’s location has soared in popularity since the outbreak of war

A month ago Russia’s most popular apps from the Apple store were broadly similar to the West’s. The top five by downloads showed people in Russia were conferencing on Zoom, messaging on Telegram and scrolling through Instagram. Today the app store looks very different. On March 8th the first three were tools aimed at disguising the user’s location, according to Data.ai, which monitors app downloads across the world. It is a similar story on Google’s Play store, for Android devices, where three of the top five apps are designed to obscure where the user is based, using ruses such as virtual private networks (VPNs).

The sudden popularity of such software follows a tightening of online censorship by Vladimir Putin’s government. On March 4th Russia blocked access to Facebook, after the social network imposed restrictions on Russian state-controlled media on its app. Twitter says its Russian users are reporting difficulty gaining access to its service. TikTok has banned people in Russia from uploading videos, after the passage of a law on March 4th criminalising the dissemination of information about the war that is not the official version. Mainstream media firms such as Netflix have suspended their services. Privacy apps could allow users to circumvent these bans.

VPN downloads are one way to measure concerns over access to the internet during a crisis. At its peak on March 5th, the number of online searches for VPNs in Russia was nearly 12 times the average, according to data from Top10VPN, a VPN review website. Demand in Ukraine peaked on March 2nd, at seven times the usual. The extra stress on Ukrainian servers in wartime has made it harder to use popular social-networking apps, such as Telegram, without a VPN.

....

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/03/10/russians-are-trying-to-escape-online-censorship

Can't stop the signal.

[President Johnson]

It's also being reported that Russia allowed to repair the electric grid so that Chernobyl can return to regular order.

https://twitter.com/iaeaorg/status/1502023331125637129

[Badger]

Here's a interview with the retired former general of the 7th army that's well worth a watch if you have 40 minutes to spare.

He talk's about the entire kerfuffle around the Polish jets to why he thinks Ukraine will win in the end and why he thinks a possible attack on Odessa would be a mistake.

tl;dr thumbnail version, especially re: the Polish jets, for those of us too busy/lazy/attention span deprived to take 40 minutes to review?

[NOVA Green]

The story is from earlier this morning, but don't believe I've seen it posted yet on this thread.


https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1501930145673744392?s=20&t=zmyKUncEr6Fls...

[AndyHogan14]

The story is from earlier this morning, but don't believe I've seen it posted yet on this thread.


https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1501930145673744392?s=20&t=zmyKUncEr6Fls...

That seems like a way to anger a bunch of people. It will also likely make people wonder why such a change is necessary for a "special military operation."

[Storr]

Thank you Wikipedia editors:

https://twitter.com/Iipi_p/status/1501980465997230080?s=20&t=3xwCsdkkfWmUAE4...

[NOVA Green]

Reuters report from ~10 minutes ago.

This is a free article and link to full expanded report is at the bottom of my post.

EXCLUSIVE Facebook will temporarily allow posts calling for violence against Russians, calls for Putin's death

March 10 (Reuters) - Meta Platforms (FB.O) will allow Facebook and Instagram users in some countries to call for violence against Russians and Russian soldiers in the context of the Ukraine invasion, according to internal emails seen by Reuters on Thursday, in a temporary change to its hate speech policy.

The social media company is also temporarily allowing some posts that call for death to Russian President Vladimir Putin or Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in countries including Russia, Ukraine and Poland, according to a series of internal emails to its content moderators.

These calls for the leaders' deaths will be allowed unless they contain other targets or have two indicators of credibility, such as the location or method, one email said, in a recent change to the company's rules on violence and incitement.

The emails said calls for violence against Russians are allowed when the post is clearly talking about the invasion of Ukraine. They said the calls for violence against Russian soldiers were allowed because this was being used as a proxy for the Russian military, and said it would not apply to prisoners of war.

...

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/exclusive-facebook-instagram-temporarily-allow-calls-violence-against-russians-2022-03-10/

[Storr]

If most Ukrainian units are equipped similarly to this one, I can see why the Russians are losing so many tanks.

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1501977118393217028?s=20&t=if_qlrQ4Qci...

I just found this continually updated list of visually confirmed equipment losses for both sides. Russia has lost an astounding 309 trucks and other transport/logistics vehicles! 

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1502014668004597769?s=20&t=Z-HqZJDHA...

[GoTfan]

If nothing else, this war has proved what Tom Clancy predicted in Red Storm Rising back in 1984: the most dangerous problem for a modern tank force against another modernised army is not the enemy tanks, but the enemy missile teams.

[GeorgiaModerate]

If nothing else, this war has proved what Tom Clancy predicted in Red Storm Rising back in 1984: the most dangerous problem for a modern tank force against another modernised army is the enemy tanks, but the enemy missile teams.

I think there's a missing word there?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

U.S., Allies Look at Sending Soviet-Designed Air-Defense Systems to Ukraine

At last! With the jets proposal dead, the West is finally looking at sending ex-Soviet systems to Ukraine. The short-range Osa and long-range S-300 are confirmed to be among those under consideration. A European diplomat has suggested countries that shift these systems to Ukraine could receive Western-made alternatives.

This should have been done a lot earlier, and the jets discussion needn’t have stopped all others, but better late than never.

[pppolitics]

Thank you Wikipedia editors:

https://twitter.com/Iipi_p/status/1501980465997230080?s=20&t=3xwCsdkkfWmUAE4...

He doesn't need to pay taxes on it either.

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraines-tax-office-captured-russian-tanks-not-personal-taxable-income-2022-3

[Badger]

U.S., Allies Look at Sending Soviet-Designed Air-Defense Systems to Ukraine

At last! With the jets proposal dead, the West is finally looking at sending ex-Soviet systems to Ukraine. The short-range Osa and long-range S-300 are confirmed to be among those under consideration. A European diplomat has suggested countries that shift these systems to Ukraine could receive Western-made alternatives.

This should have been done a lot earlier, and the jets discussion needn’t have stopped all others, but better late than never.

 Good. Now send the f****** jets, Joe!

[Storr]

I get that the main focus of weapons deliveries has been on getting anti-tank missiles to Ukraine, but the DP was last manufactured in the USSR in the 50s, and started production in 1928. Maybe we should ship some machine guns too?

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1502020977143816193?s=20&t=Z8ICbOPXP_R...