Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[NOVA Green]

US-Venezuelan Oil Update per WSJ ~ 35 minutes back:

"U.S. Officials Meet With Regime in Venezuela, to Discuss Oil Exports to Replace Russia’s

In rare meeting, the two sides discuss lifting of U.S. sanctions that have barred Venezuelan oil exports to American refineries.

Venezuelan oil would return to the open international market under proposals that the U.S. government is discussing in meetings with officials of President Nicolás Maduro’s regime, according to people familiar with the talks.

The rare face-to-face discussions, which began Saturday, are taking place in Caracas.

The Biden administration is seeking to ease oil sanctions on Venezuela’s oil industry that have been in place since 2019 as part of a broader U.S. strategy to temper oil prices that have skyrocketed because of Russia’s war in Ukraine, the people said.

The administration also wants to isolate Russia from its most important ally in South America, Venezuela, an essential supplier of crude to the U.S. until economic mismanagement and then sanctions caused the nation’s oil sector to crater.

The proposals being discussed in the Venezuelan capital would ease sanctions for a limited period on U.S. national security grounds. Since the Trump administration began turning the economic screws on Venezuela in 2017, Caracas has come to rely on China, Russia and Iran to keep its oil sector afloat. As of 2020, Petróleos de Venezuela SA, the country’s state oil company, was producing about 300,000 barrels a day.

By easing the sanctions now, the U.S. would redirect Venezuelan oil exports out of an opaque China-bound export network and back to refiners in Texas and Louisiana that process the heavy crude Venezuela produces, people familiar with the administration’s thinking on the matter said.

It also would peel Caracas out of the political orbit of Russia, which has helped Venezuela sidestep U.S. sanctions by putting its financial system to work processing payments for PDVSA, as the Venezuelan state oil company is known. And sanctions relief would replace Iran’s supply of condensate—a very light oil that PDVSA uses to dilute its extra-heavy oil—with Western-supplied diluents like naphtha, according to people familiar with the Biden administration’s strategy.

...."



https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-officials-meet-with-regime-in-venezuela-to-discuss-oil-exports-to-replace-russias-11646591752?st=6prtwmdneedab7x&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

[NOVA Green]

Just heard on CNN a couple minutes ago that Russia will be sending another 1,000 mercs to Ukraine.

Anybody got further reporting on this?

[President Johnson]

TikTok also pulling out of Russia:

https://twitter.com/TikTokComms/status/1500535437861048320

[Old Man Willow]

US-Venezuelan Oil Update per WSJ ~ 35 minutes back:

The proposals being discussed in the Venezuelan capital would ease sanctions for a limited period on U.S. national security grounds.

"For a limited period". Venezuela should reject this insulting proposal. Full reconciliation or nothing. Our government is responsible for so much of the misery they suffer. Sanction the country to poverty levels then blame the poverty on "socialism". Enough.

[ugabug]

https://twitter.com/YourAnonTV/status/1500557635686486023?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7C...

[WMS]

https://twitter.com/johnsweeneyroar/status/1500553181876609026?s=21
https://twitter.com/shaunwalker7/status/1500059651546755073?s=21
https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1500167411374432260?s=21
https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1500459962497175555?s=21
https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1500474607459094528?s=21
https://twitter.com/cen4infores/status/1498723067555680265?s=21
https://twitter.com/franakviacorka/status/1500431403028262913?s=21
https://twitter.com/k_loukerenko/status/1500073405676195840?s=21
https://twitter.com/millermena/status/1500494408243888130?s=21
https://twitter.com/mrkovalenko/status/1500402711786930176?s=21
https://twitter.com/ash_stewart_/status/1500221871760949250?s=21
All war crimes great and small,
Good people condemn them all.

“Both sides” assholes can f*** off and die.

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

https://mobile.twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1500564066246574081

[President Johnson]

snip
All war crimes great and small,
Good people condemn them all.

“Both sides” assholes can f*** off and die.

There must be a special place in hell for Putin.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

US-Venezuelan Oil Update per WSJ ~ 35 minutes back:

"U.S. Officials Meet With Regime in Venezuela, to Discuss Oil Exports to Replace Russia’s

In rare meeting, the two sides discuss lifting of U.S. sanctions that have barred Venezuelan oil exports to American refineries.

Venezuelan oil would return to the open international market under proposals that the U.S. government is discussing in meetings with officials of President Nicolás Maduro’s regime, according to people familiar with the talks.

The rare face-to-face discussions, which began Saturday, are taking place in Caracas.

The Biden administration is seeking to ease oil sanctions on Venezuela’s oil industry that have been in place since 2019 as part of a broader U.S. strategy to temper oil prices that have skyrocketed because of Russia’s war in Ukraine, the people said.

The administration also wants to isolate Russia from its most important ally in South America, Venezuela, an essential supplier of crude to the U.S. until economic mismanagement and then sanctions caused the nation’s oil sector to crater.

The proposals being discussed in the Venezuelan capital would ease sanctions for a limited period on U.S. national security grounds. Since the Trump administration began turning the economic screws on Venezuela in 2017, Caracas has come to rely on China, Russia and Iran to keep its oil sector afloat. As of 2020, Petróleos de Venezuela SA, the country’s state oil company, was producing about 300,000 barrels a day.

By easing the sanctions now, the U.S. would redirect Venezuelan oil exports out of an opaque China-bound export network and back to refiners in Texas and Louisiana that process the heavy crude Venezuela produces, people familiar with the administration’s thinking on the matter said.

It also would peel Caracas out of the political orbit of Russia, which has helped Venezuela sidestep U.S. sanctions by putting its financial system to work processing payments for PDVSA, as the Venezuelan state oil company is known. And sanctions relief would replace Iran’s supply of condensate—a very light oil that PDVSA uses to dilute its extra-heavy oil—with Western-supplied diluents like naphtha, according to people familiar with the Biden administration’s strategy.

...."



https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-officials-meet-with-regime-in-venezuela-to-discuss-oil-exports-to-replace-russias-11646591752?st=6prtwmdneedab7x&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Supporting Maduro to own Putin.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

No one is claiming that there is a single m**** w*** come up including Is the US  Is cutting off Russian oil and gas to solve this matter. As a small business person, if I lose a client that is 7% of my yearly intake, that is a major kick in the balls. And a friend of that 7% client follows suit, that's additional kick in the balls.

We get it. You have an America first isolation as policy policy that would rather not raise the price of the pump 50 cents a gallon then help the Ukrainian people. Whom, I might add, are the ones saying dear God please help us by imposing this embargo.

You can't have as both ways. You can't on the one hand claim thatSuch an embargo is going to do terrible things to Joe consumer at the pump, and yet simultaneously claimed that it's a fart  In a whirlwind that won't effectively hit rushes natural resources economy.

You misread my source and have implicitly undercut your own argument.
It's not that America is 7% of Russia's business, it is that Russia is 7% of America's business. It's easier for us to cut off Russian hydrocarbons than our NATO allies anyway - we get a majority of our foreign oil from Canada, which, like Russia, is a mostly frozen land with lots of fossil fuels.

Do you think Europe can live without Russian natural gas indefinitely? Perhaps you might, but basing policy around the idea that they can and will is unwise and imprudent.

It is true we could lock Russia out of our markets should the will exist for it, as one NATO bloc, but this would impose on us an economic cost that would tax our ability to maintain our very way of life to a degree that I doubt we'd be able to do it. We shouldn't just ask "would it hurt Russia", we should ask "would it hurt us too, and if so, how much". And let's be clear here. The mere fact Ukrainians ask for something isn't evidence it's a good thing to do. The American government decides American foreign policy, and American interests don't necessarily square perfectly with Ukrainian ones, even if there is certainly a fair bit of overlap.

As Shua said about no-fly zones in a USGD post, it is the duty of the Zelensky government to ask, and it is the job of NATO to refuse, or something along those lines. Zelensky has every right to ask for X and Y, but NATO, and the US, have their own distinct interests and things ought to be considered on a case-by-case basis. No singular country ought to control our foreign policy, not even Ukraine.

Furthermore, we cannot let this war cloud from us the fact that China is the single most formidable adversary of this country. The steps we are taking are in fact only empowering China, indirectly. The scale of the sanctions are forcing Russia to rely on China, and a Russia reliant on China and a China implacably opposed to us is the worst of both worlds for America. Sanctions are also a limited tool. They make sense in the narrow context of this war, but not only do we have to deal with diminishing returns, but we also see them get less effective over time to begin with. Most sanctions must end as soon as the war is over, because a Russia disconnected from international institutions is one that we lack leverage over.

We must preserve liberal internationalism when possible, and the optimal means to do so are realpolitik-driven, stable policies that prioritize long-term thinking over short-termism. Short-termism has kneecapped American FP for quite a bit of time, and it has actively enabled Putin and other figures to (generally correctly) assume we can't be relied to follow through on our commitments. Just look at the TPP fiasco. Foreign partners know that our broader geopolitical posture can do a total 180 whenever the party in Oval Office changes.

With all due respect, "America first isolation policy" is thus a very flawed way of describing this. Just because I don't really unquestioningly support the zeitgeist doesn't mean I am an isolationist. Moreover, I agree that America should be very engaged in the world, I think we need to be deliberative and thoughtful about the steps we take, and I think the administration's generally got it right on this. And per my own admission, I underestimated the effectiveness of sanctions.

[It’s so Joever]

Russia could be just preparing for a big offensive, that’s probably why the frontlines have been stalled. A swift fall of several Ukrainian cities and much of Eastern Ukraine is conceivable very soon if this offensive begins.

[Person Man]

Russia could be just preparing for a big offensive, that’s probably why the frontlines have been stalled. A swift fall of several Ukrainian cities and much of Eastern Ukraine is conceivable very soon if this offensive begins.

Do they have the legwork in place? That’s iffy.

[President Johnson]

Russia could be just preparing for a big offensive, that’s probably why the frontlines have been stalled. A swift fall of several Ukrainian cities and much of Eastern Ukraine is conceivable very soon if this offensive begins.

Some observers in Germany suggested this as well, though I'm not sure how many actual soldiers and equipment the Russians have left to get in at this moment. My guess is just that they will increase horrific air bombing campaigns as happened in Syria since 2015.

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

most advanced russian apc's

https://reddit.com/r/2Russophobic4you/comments/t7xj1c/elite_moskal_reinforcements_coming/

[Person Man]

most advanced russian apc's

https://reddit.com/r/2Russophobic4you/comments/t7xj1c/elite_moskal_reinforcements_coming/

Do they come with matching pitchforks?

[NOVA Green]

Russian Demo update per the Washington Post (Includes video links):...

Also Russian Demo update per OVD-Info (30 Minutes Ago): 

Although it might seem futile, it is important to recognize the courage of the Russian population who are standing up and risking all for their country in the face of extreme repression and which is rapidly devolving into a full blown totalitarian state.

"More than 4,000 arrested in antiwar demonstrations across Russia, human rights group says

More than 4,400 protesters were arrested Sunday at antiwar demonstrations across Russia, according to OVD-Info, an independent human rights organization that Russian authorities have declared a foreign agent.

Crowds chanted “No to war!” while streaming through Moscow and St. Petersburg in a pair of videos posted to Twitter. In another, a demonstrator sang Ukraine’s anthem while being hauled away by police.

Authorities arrested at least 4,468 people across 56 cities in Russia, the organization said, as people risked arrest to denounce the country’s invasion of Ukraine. The group reported multiple instances of excessive force against protesters, including beatings and the use of stun guns. Among those detained were 13 journalists and 113 juveniles.

Footage shared on social media showed police taking demonstrators into custody, at times using force. Several officers wearing body armor surrounded a person who was flailing on the ground. One officer struck the person with a baton and kicked the person before another shooed away the camera filming the encounter.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, antiwar protests have occurred daily, OVD-Info reported. Russia has detained at least 10,318 protesters in 121 cities.

Spontaneous mass demonstrations are illegal in Russia, with protesters facing the possibility of fines and jail time."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/06/russia-ukraine-war-news-putin-live-updates/#link-VYUBYOAVM5HF5IMXVVZXLGYDAI

"As of March 6nd, according to OVD-Info data, there have been 13,022 protesters detained in 147 Russian cities since the beginning of the protests.

On March 6, Russian police detained over 4640 people who participated in anti-war rallies in 65 cities. At least 30 instances of protesters being beaten have been confirmed and it is likely that this number is much higher. There are many videos on social networks in which police officers are seen beating anti-war protesters.



There are reports of torture at police stations. At the Brateevo police station in Moscow, detainees were hit in the face and head with bottles, kicked in the legs, kneed in the stomach, dragged by their hair and had sanitizer sprayed in their faces.



Additionally, in some police stations, including at the Brateevo police station, lawyers were not allowed to visit detainees.



That afternoon, Roskomnadzor continued to block the websites of independent media outlets. These include Republic, Snob, Agentstvo, Echo of the Caucasus, Sobesednik, LentaChel (Chelyabinsk) and the Echo of Moscow radio station’s page in Chelyabinsk. During the protests, thirteen journalists were detained as protesters even though they were performing journalistic work.



There have been known cases of police officers searching for protest videos on the phones of passersby in central Moscow, with reports of detainment. If a person refused to unlock his phone, they were threatened with an administrative charge of disobeying the police.



As of the evening of March 6, there have been 25 people who have had criminal cases opened against them for participating in anti-war actions. They were threatened with jail terms. Anti-war protesters have been accused of vandalism and for pretending to lay bomb (the details are unknown but these cases involve political activists). There are also charges laid concerning incitement to extremism, disseminating deliberately false information and committing violence against police officers.



In total, since February 24, police officers have detained 13,015 people in 147 cities at rallies against the war with Ukraine. "


https://ovd.news/news/2022/03/02/russian-protests-against-war-ukraine-chronicle-events

[Frodo]

On a more heartwarming note:  

Meet Rambo: The stray puppy protecting Ukrainian soldiers


(Image credit: FNTV/YouTube)

[NOVA Green]

Haven't seen it reported yet on Atlas, but per CNN an hour or two ago:

"Kharkiv radio and TV broadcasts knocked out by Russian military strikes

Television and radio broadcasts have been knocked out in Ukraine's second largest city, Kharkiv, after Russian military strikes, according to the Regional Administration.

In a post on Facebook Sunday, the Regional Administration said, "repeated shelling" of the TV tower in Kharkiv had knocked out tv and radio broadcasting.

"Areas of the building housing technical equipment were destroyed, and it the extent of damage to the towers themselves is still being assessed," the department said in their statement. 

.... "


https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-06-22/h_b05dc472d596550b9b60344c91643abe

[President Johnson]

Macron again phoned with Putin today, with the latter not backing down, according French sources. Israel's Bennett and Erdogan also spoke with Putin, with Erdogan demanding a cease fire.

https://twitter.com/Forbes/status/1500525308985974787

[lfromnj]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/06/world/europe/ukraine-russia-families.html


Depressing read.

[NOVA Green]

Maybe somebody needs to a GofundMe for this guy... (If this is an Atlas member I'll double my contribution).   

This is the same younger man who was tracking Elon Musk's jet not so long ago.

"Teen Tracking Russian Oligarchs’ Jets Is Now Targeting Their Superyachts

The Florida college student who garnered attention for tracking the private planes of Tesla Inc. Chief Executive Elon Musk and Russian oligarchs has a new Twitter target: the luxury yachts of Russia’s elite.

Jack Sweeney, 19 years old, created @RussiaYachts on Saturday, a Twitter bot that monitors and publishes the on-water whereabouts of super-wealthy Russians. As of Sunday afternoon, the account had over 9,300 followers.

“I just kept getting more and more people in my direct messages saying, ‘Can you do the yachts, too?' So, I did it,” Mr. Sweeney said in an interview Sunday.

His @RussiaYachts account follows the movements of 23 luxury boats, some of which are owned by the same Russian billionaires Mr. Sweeney is tracking in the air at @RUOligarchJets.

Mr. Sweeney also created @PutinJet, which follows aircraft possibly used by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Mr. Sweeney, a freshman at the University of Central Florida, started those two accounts on Feb. 26, two days after Russia invaded Ukraine. His @RUOligarchJets account has amassed nearly 395,000 followers as of Sunday, while the bot tracking planes associated with Mr. Putin had over 102,000 followers.

Mr. Sweeney’s jet-tracking bots rely on public data from plane transponders that log longitude, latitude and altitude and calculate location based on an algorithm he created in 2020.

For yachts, Mr. Sweeney relies on similar data that comes from onboard safety devices that transmit and monitor the locations of large vessels.

For now, he updates his tracking program manually each time the data changes. To get full access to the automatic identification system database that collects the information, Mr. Sweeney would have to pay for it, he said.

“I’m not really sure what it would cost, because there’s different options,” he said. “I’m just doing it manually, for now, until I can automate it.”

Mr. Sweeney said one thing is simpler about tracking yachts over planes: It is much easier to figure out which oligarch owns which boat.

.... "



https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-03-04/card/teen-tracking-russian-oligarchs-jets-is-now-targeting-their-superyachts-p9ym4kuPAL3d7nmeVp81

[NOVA Green]

Russian Artillery Position Reportedly Wiped out near Mykoliav (CNN 20 Minutes ago):

"Ukrainian military reportedly knocks out Russian artillery position near Mykoliav

The Ukrainian military has reportedly knocked out a Russian military artillery position near Mykoliav in southern Ukraine, according to videos published Sunday by Vitali Kim, the area's regional governor.

In the videos, a number of Russian military vehicles are seen in addition to artillery guns. CNN has been unable to geolocate the videos or verify their authenticity.

"Here the [tanks] are abandoned," someone said in the video. "They just abandoned them here."

In another video, a Ukrainian soldier narrated what he said happened to the artillery position.

"One of the columns was withdrawing from Mykoliav and this is what's left of our 'brothers,' the ones that came to 'save us'," he said, sarcastically referencing Russian claims that Ukrainians need saving.

He later said the Russian Howitzers that had been shelling them will now be turned back on the Russians.

This new apparent victory by Ukrainian forces comes two days after Vitali Kim published a video showing the Ukrainian military claiming to have pushed Russian military from their positions at a heavily contested air base in southeastern Mykoliav.  "


https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-06-22/h_96a027a782fe97f258830b24c643bc6e

[jaichind]

Russia and Ukraine together produce 1/3 of the world's wheat.    Wheat prices have surged to twice of early 2021 levels with Ukraine export sources being cut off due to the conflict and the threat of Russia potentially holding back wheat exports.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Yeah--- for sure. Sounds like it was cruise missile attacks (of which reportedly Russia has limited supplies of), rather than air strikes.

There was some updated info in the WP about 20-30 minutes back including video of the strikes (link below):

"Cruise missile attack ‘destroyed’ Ukrainian airport

....

In aftermath videos verified by The Post, firefighters spray down a smoking building cracked in half. They step on the rubble, chunks of concrete and burned metal. What looks like the airport’s command tower is crashed into the ground.

Local people filmed cruise missiles flying toward the airport from up to 15 miles away. While the missiles appeared to come from a southwestern direction, according to The Post’s geolocation of the videos, experts warned against drawing conclusions on the missile’s launch point.

“Cruise missiles can be programmed to fly paths that avoid sensors and defenses, at low altitude around terrain,” Scott Boston, a Russian military analyst at Rand Corporation, told The Post. “This can mislead efforts to determine where they are ultimately intended to go.”

The Russian military has cruise missiles that can be launched by from the sea and ground as well as the air, Boston said.

The missiles probably struck fuel storage tanks at the airport, said Wim Zwijnenburg, a project leader for humanitarian disarmament at the Netherlands-based organization Pax, pointing to the size of the fire ball in the video and the presence of black smoke. The attack would be consistent with Russia’s wider tactic of taking out Ukrainian fuel supplies, he told The Post.

"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/06/russia-ukraine-war-news-putin-live-updates/#link-RCOLLQK3UBBM7MPI6KT4URQB2I

This was on the mark. Ukraine claimed the attack came from Transnistria at first, but Moldova has denied that any planes or missiles were launched from there today. The missiles probably came from an aircraft flying southwest, or the Black Sea Fleet.

My guess it that Russia is ramping up its air campaign to make expansion of the UkrAF difficult. That "Polish jets" have been telegraphed for so long without any concrete developments is a really bad sign for NATO/EU coordination.

[Storr]

Russia moment



^{Stolen from r/noncredibledefense}

It's the meme...but a whole train:

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1500489960306192389?s=20&t=DkAtaeDYQyq...