Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Not Me, Us]

https://twitter.com/sandumaiamd/status/1499426835201150978

Moldova has now applied to join the EU.

How likely is this to succeed?

[WMS]

https://twitter.com/peterliakhov/status/1499341576518217730?s=21

Hmm.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Extensive German polling numbers on Ukraine conflict and support for sanctions, new defense arrangements etc.:


https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=379760.msg8507122#msg8507122

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=379760.msg8507144#msg8507144

[7,052,770]

Russia has drawn up plans for public executions in Ukraine as and when cities are captured by Russian troops, Bloomberg reports.

Bloomberg cites a European intelligence official as saying that Moscow has drafted strategies to break morale in order to discourage Ukrainians from fighting back as cities fall under the Kremlin’s control.

The official said Moscow plans to crack down on protest, detain opponents and potentially carry out public executions, the news agency writes.

Bloomberg is paywalled so linking to the Guardian citation

Just in case anyone is still on the ‘Just let Russia have it’ bandwagon, I think it’s good to remind everyone what that means.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/mar/03/ukraine-news-russia-war-vladimir-putin-biden-latest-live-updates-kherson-kyiv-kharkiv-refugees-russian-invasion

It seems very obvious that will just harden Ukrainian's resolve, right?

[It’s so Joever]

Russia has drawn up plans for public executions in Ukraine as and when cities are captured by Russian troops, Bloomberg reports.

Bloomberg cites a European intelligence official as saying that Moscow has drafted strategies to break morale in order to discourage Ukrainians from fighting back as cities fall under the Kremlin’s control.

The official said Moscow plans to crack down on protest, detain opponents and potentially carry out public executions, the news agency writes.

Bloomberg is paywalled so linking to the Guardian citation

Just in case anyone is still on the ‘Just let Russia have it’ bandwagon, I think it’s good to remind everyone what that means.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/mar/03/ukraine-news-russia-war-vladimir-putin-biden-latest-live-updates-kherson-kyiv-kharkiv-refugees-russian-invasion

It seems very obvious that will just harden Ukrainian's resolve, right?

The L in Russia stands for learning from mistakes in Afghanistan.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/ZaidSabah/status/1499428364762894337

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/ZaidSabah/status/1499428364762894337

That’s a dead 2-star general

[President Johnson]

Zelenskyy owns Putin big time:

https://twitter.com/LBCNews/status/1499454221523030017

[sting in the rafters]

In addition to the questions of "will BDS actions cripple the Russian war machine's ability to fight before Ukraine succumbs?", we must ask:

1. Is a 1-2% chance of hundreds of millions dead in nuclear war should NATO directly intervene via institution of a no-fly zone worth preventing an >80% chance of the Russian military murdering tens of thousands of innocent Ukrainians in cold blood?

2. If yes to #1, do we want to place faith in the Russian General Staff to refuse relaying any launch signals to their submarines should Putin throw a hissy fit and goes full I Am Legend?

I can admit I am too much of a coward to answer those questions. I can only hope our leaders are up to the task.

[Person Man]

In addition to the questions of "will BDS actions cripple the Russian war machine's ability to fight before Ukraine succumbs?", we must ask:

1. Is a 1-2% chance of hundreds of millions dead in nuclear war should NATO directly intervene via institution of a no-fly zone worth preventing an >80% chance of the Russian military murdering tens of thousands of innocent Ukrainians in cold blood?

2. If yes to #1, do we want to place faith in the Russian General Staff to refuse relaying any launch signals to their submarines should Putin throw a hissy fit and goes full I Am Legend?

I can admit I am too much of a coward to answer those questions. I can only hope our leaders are up to the task.

If this was just about now, it isn’t but I think it is.

[ugabug]

What do you'll think are the odds that Putin ends up being deposed and who are the most likely candidate's to replace him?

[jaichind]

What do you'll think are the odds that Putin ends up being deposed and who are the most likely candidate's to replace him?

The latest betting odds on  Zelensky being Prez of Ukraine as of April 22nd, 2022 is 54/46.  The odds on Putin being Perz of Russia as of Dec 31 2022 is 78/22.

[BlueSwan]

Extensive German polling numbers on Ukraine conflict and support for sanctions, new defense arrangements etc.:


https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=379760.msg8507122#msg8507122

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=379760.msg8507144#msg8507144

Very good numbers.

[President Johnson]

I like this message from Blinken.

https://twitter.com/SecBlinken/status/1499465379936186373

[AndyHogan14]

In addition to the questions of "will BDS actions cripple the Russian war machine's ability to fight before Ukraine succumbs?", we must ask:

1. Is a 1-2% chance of hundreds of millions dead in nuclear war should NATO directly intervene via institution of a no-fly zone worth preventing an >80% chance of the Russian military murdering tens of thousands of innocent Ukrainians in cold blood?

2. If yes to #1, do we want to place faith in the Russian General Staff to refuse relaying any launch signals to their submarines should Putin throw a hissy fit and goes full I Am Legend?

I can admit I am too much of a coward to answer those questions. I can only hope our leaders are up to the task.

If this was just about now, it isn’t but I think it is.

I agree. If Putin gets away with what he is doing in Ukraine, what is stopping him from going into Moldova next? Then deciding he can go after the Baltic States? There is going to have to be a confrontation at some point and I think that MAD will stop the war from going nuclear, but even a 1% chance is a frightening proposition.

[emailking]

I think he stops at Ukraine, but I'd be very doubtful he tries for a NATO state.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I agree. If Putin gets away with what he is doing in Ukraine, what is stopping him from going into Moldova next? Then deciding he can go after the Baltic States?

Running things on the old Jingo Scale, he does have ships, but he's running out of men and running out of money too.

[DaleCooper]

In addition to the questions of "will BDS actions cripple the Russian war machine's ability to fight before Ukraine succumbs?", we must ask:

1. Is a 1-2% chance of hundreds of millions dead in nuclear war should NATO directly intervene via institution of a no-fly zone worth preventing an >80% chance of the Russian military murdering tens of thousands of innocent Ukrainians in cold blood?

2. If yes to #1, do we want to place faith in the Russian General Staff to refuse relaying any launch signals to their submarines should Putin throw a hissy fit and goes full I Am Legend?

I can admit I am too much of a coward to answer those questions. I can only hope our leaders are up to the task.

If this was just about now, it isn’t but I think it is.

I agree. If Putin gets away with what he is doing in Ukraine, what is stopping him from going into Moldova next? Then deciding he can go after the Baltic States? There is going to have to be a confrontation at some point and I think that MAD will stop the war from going nuclear, but even a 1% chance is a frightening proposition.

If Putin tries to invade the Baltic States, it's pretty clear that NATO will annihilate his invasion force within days given how incompetent his military is. This situation might actually make the Russians more likely to use nuclear weapons, so I say it's best to do everything we can, short of sending in troops, to make sure Russia gets stopped at Ukraine.  

[President Johnson]

I think he stops at Ukraine, but I'd be very doubtful he tries for a NATO state.

Not sure, history has shown that appeasement never worked. The West should have been more forceful in 2014 already, and Putin way too long got away with cyber war, election interference and ordered killings in European cities. The lackluster responses to all these violation and the pathetic attempts by some German politicians - including from my own party - to get Norstream 2 done at all cost just emboldened him. He needs a clear stop sign now, and if he doesn't back down, needs to learn it the hard way. He has already ruined the Russian economy for years.

[emailking]

The reason I'm doubtful he'd try for a NATO state is because he knows it would mean the end. That wasn't the case in the 40s.

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

If I'm correct, a new report from the Institute for The Study of War should be dropping soon.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

In addition to the questions of "will BDS actions cripple the Russian war machine's ability to fight before Ukraine succumbs?", we must ask:

1. Is a 1-2% chance of hundreds of millions dead in nuclear war should NATO directly intervene via institution of a no-fly zone worth preventing an >80% chance of the Russian military murdering tens of thousands of innocent Ukrainians in cold blood?

2. If yes to #1, do we want to place faith in the Russian General Staff to refuse relaying any launch signals to their submarines should Putin throw a hissy fit and goes full I Am Legend?

I can admit I am too much of a coward to answer those questions. I can only hope our leaders are up to the task.

If this was just about now, it isn’t but I think it is.

I agree. If Putin gets away with what he is doing in Ukraine, what is stopping him from going into Moldova next? Then deciding he can go after the Baltic States? There is going to have to be a confrontation at some point and I think that MAD will stop the war from going nuclear, but even a 1% chance is a frightening proposition.

An NFZ isn’t pressure or support, it’s declaring war. The chances of a US-Russia war going nuclear is well above 1%.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/oliverdarcy/status/1499479196778709019

[nicholas.slaydon]

https://twitter.com/oliverdarcy/status/1499479196778709019

Good riddance.

[Silent Hunter]

RT UK has gone off air as well - the feed came from EU member Luxembourg. Ofcom were looking at a load of complaints as well.