Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

How the Invasion Has Been Going by compucomp

I was chatting with a colleague about the recovery in the market in the afternoon, and there's another possibility for it that this forum is not going to like: Ukraine collapses and surrenders very quickly, there is minimal destruction and bloodshed (because they lost so fast), and we're back to BAU before long.

Reading this thread is like stepping in a parallel universe where Ukraine is winning the war, except IRL Kiev might be taken tonight, 2 days after the war started. I understand you're all cheerleading for one side, but you should at least read some of the Tweets you're posting and realize that they actually reveal what dire straits Ukraine is in, like the post about the TV program showing how to make Molotov cocktails and the video of Zelensky on the street in Kiev vowing to fight to the end and saying how we may not see him again.

The level of foreign support for Ukraine is clearly correlated how the war is going. Today is the first day they can credibly claim to be mounting effective resistance, as they have stopped the Russian advance on Kiev. So now countries are showing support for them, because there is something worthwhile to support. Let's put it this way, would you have favored sending aid to Ashraf Ghani on say August 7, 2021?

The Ukrainians are certainly in a much stronger position for these peace talks than when Zelensky was asking for them two days ago. Still, I don't think he will get status quo ante bellum here. Russian forces have fallen short of expectations for sure but they are still winning in the sense that they hold Ukrainian territory, including some important parts in the South near Crimea.

At this point it's abundantly clear that Russia should have shut off its internet for the duration of the war and that if they had the capacity to knock out Ukraine's internet, they should have done so. How the hell is an army supposed to keep operational security and secrecy if anybody with a smartphone can record troop and vehicle movements and upload it to Twitter/Telegram/etc immediately?

I refuse to believe the Russian military is so incompetent that they are allowing this "40 mile convoy" that is on the front page of CNN to remain as it is. Either it's been moved already or it's a trap to draw out Ukraine's air force and the Russians have AA guns/missiles and fighters ready to cut down the air attack.

[John Dule]

Also, it's clear that China got it right when it decided to ring-fence its internet, bar Western internet and social media companies that wouldn't meet its requirements, which turned out to be all of them, and develop domestic alternatives. Facebook and Twitter are turning out to be huge national security nightmares for Russia as they are clearly intervening on behalf of the Ukrainians and banning them now could cause backlash as there may not be an alternative (maybe Telegram?) and Russians are used to using them. China would not face this issue at all. Yes it's annoying to use the internet in China particularly to browse foreign websites but national security is more important than my convenience.

Why are you on an election discussion website when you clearly don't think elections should exist?

[Storr]

Wow, a Russian Il-76 is currently violating the Polish ban on Russian planes flying in its airspace. I'm tracking it now (the internet is amazing). Maybe it's purpose is to challenge NATO's authority?

<tweet snip>

If you want to track it: https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=152c98

It looks like a passenger flight to Slovakia that somehow slipped through.

It seems so, people in the comments section shared sources that showed the flight as cancelled, but I guess not. It just entered Slovakian airspace.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Snip

That the guy I mostly know from rooting for the worst people in the US in USGD also roots for Putin just tracks so well.

[NOVA Green]

Don't believe this was posted before, but for anybody out there who is a big fan of crypto currency, it also shows why it is the most favored current currency among big bad actors from rogue states, drug dealers, tax cheats, computer financial hackers, etc...


"Some cryptocurrency exchanges said they were refusing calls to suspend Russian accounts. Unless there was a legal requirement to do so, the move would violate bitcoin’s “libertarian values, which strongly favor individualism and human rights,” Jesse Powell, the chief executive and co-founder of the U.S.-based Kraken Exchange, said on Twitter. “Our mission,” he added, “is to bridge individual humans out of the legacy financial system and bring them in to the world of crypto, where arbitrary lines on maps no longer matter.” On Sunday, Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine's minister of digital transformation, had asked all major crypto exchanges to block Russian addresses."

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/28/world/ukraine-russia-war

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Don't believe this was posted before, but for anybody out there who is a big fan of crypto currency, it also shows why it is the most favored current currency among big bad actors from rogue states, drug dealers, tax cheats, computer financial hackers, etc...


"Some cryptocurrency exchanges said they were refusing calls to suspend Russian accounts. Unless there was a legal requirement to do so, the move would violate bitcoin’s “libertarian values, which strongly favor individualism and human rights,” Jesse Powell, the chief executive and co-founder of the U.S.-based Kraken Exchange, said on Twitter. “Our mission,” he added, “is to bridge individual humans out of the legacy financial system and bring them in to the world of crypto, where arbitrary lines on maps no longer matter.” On Sunday, Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine's minister of digital transformation, had asked all major crypto exchanges to block Russian addresses."

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/28/world/ukraine-russia-war

If anyone from that volunteer IT legion wants to crash this exchange, please go ahead.

[brucejoel99]

Wow, a Russian Il-76 is currently violating the Polish ban on Russian planes flying in its airspace. I'm tracking it now (the internet is amazing). Maybe it's purpose is to challenge NATO's authority?

<tweet snip>

If you want to track it: https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=152c98

It looks like a passenger flight to Slovakia that somehow slipped through.

It seems so, people in the comments section shared sources that showed the flight as cancelled, but I guess not. It just entered Slovakian airspace.

Apparently, that's now also wrong. It is an Il-76, but just a civilian cargo plane.

[NOVA Green]

Bulgaria shows how Fortress Europe is only open to a certain kind of refugee....

Unfortunately only too common in most European Nations these days, and certainly the United States is no saint on this front either.

(Don't want to overquote so buy your own very inexpensive subscription or use one of your free monthly articles).

"Bulgaria’s leader contrasts ‘intelligent,’ ‘educated’ refugees with those from the Middle East.

Ukraine’s neighbors to the west, facing an influx of war refugees estimated at 500,000 and rising, have opened their borders with a warm welcome. It’s a striking contrast to the far chillier reception offered to non-European migrants who have recently fled conflicts in countries like Syria and Afghanistan.

On Friday, Bulgarian Prime Minister Kiril Petkov joined the leaders of nearby Moldova, Poland, Hungary and Romania in offering safe haven to Ukrainians fleeing Russia’s invasion, telling reporters that his government would do everything in its power to ease the looming humanitarian crisis.

That feel-good moment took a turn when he offered an explanation for the policy: These migrants were “Europeans,” he said, “not the refugees we are used to” in recent years — they were “intelligent” and “educated,” he added, people unlikely to spread terrorism.

“There is not a single European country now which is afraid of the current wave of refugees,” added Mr. Petkov, an American-educated reformer elected on an anti-corruption platform in 2021.

The comments were a striking counterpoint to a European refugee crisis in 2015 when an influx of more than one million refugees and migrants escaping war and conflict in the Middle East and Africa fanned an anti-immigrant backlash in Europe, and helped buttress far-right parties railing against migration and the perceived threat of Islam. At the time, Hungary even built a fence on its border with Serbia to keep migrants out, which became a potent symbol of animus against migration.

Prime Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary waged a bitter battle with former German Chancellor Angela Merkel over immigration policy, seeking to keep immigrants out of Hungary while positioning himself as a defender of European values in a global conflict between Christians and non-Christians.

In the case of Bulgaria, over the past several years, the country has accepted relatively few refugees fleeing conflicts, while erecting barriers to discourage immigration, despite having the highest percentage of Muslim residents of any member of the European Union.

..."


https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/28/world/ukraine-russia-war/bulgarias-leader-contrasts-intelligent-educated-refugees-with-those-from-the-middle-east

[Lord Halifax]

Bolsonaro is not on Russia's side. He just refuses to take Ukraine's side.
Maduro on the other hand...

‘Neutral’ and ‘On Russia’s side’ is quite a fine distinction these days.

Only because the Western narrative decided to force places that aren’t involved with this to pick a side.

Brazil has long been a neutral country, that’s our main diplomatic approach since the 90s. We don’t want enemies. Bolsonaro adopting neutral stance, against these harsh sanctions against Russia, is something that even a leftist government would support because it’s close to a consensus approach:

https://www.twitter.com/BrazilBrian/status/1498370398496477191
At least on this some level of long-term consistency is maintained although they messed on the UN vote. Follows neutrality position and helps to not isolate Russia even more. Literally the first thing this government does in almost 4 years that isn’t completely dumb and a reason of shame. This isn’t our conflict and it’s wrong to take any side, stay friends with both US and Russia in order to find a middle ground solution.

Especially when there’s the risk of nuclear conflict, it’s scary how some people here want to escalate things so aggressively when them and their countries are not even involved on this.

Well then, under your logic Brazil should follow the same stance if the U.S. invaded, say, Cuba?

I somehow doubt that would be the case, tankie.

Neither USA or RUSSIA or CHINA. Cuba, Mexico, Venezuela, Argentina are Latin American neighbors and therefore ARE our problem. Other places far away are not.

If everyone who doesn’t side with your cause is a “tankie” you will find not much sympathy here, as the mainstream forces here on both right and left support neutrality.

If you don’t respect or sympathize with the Latin American background and perspective, there’s not much reason for people to try to look through the Eastern European one either.

The Ukrainian cause is valid, but there’s a whole context behind it that relates to each place differently. And that’s okay.

You won’t find this “shame rhetoric forcing into submission to what I want” to work that much here within our diplomacy or with me. I favor respectful debates.

The problem is that if a great power attacks a smaller neighbor trying to annex it you can't be genuinely neutral as "neutrality" means you accept the aggression as a fait accompli. It's a faux neutrality. And in a globalized world "it's far away, so not our problem" is hogwash. If big democracies like India and Brazil stay "faux neutral" in the face of naked aggression they're undermining the rule based world order, which all democracies - not just Western ones - should have an interest in upholding.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Wow, a Russian Il-76 is currently violating the Polish ban on Russian planes flying in its airspace. I'm tracking it now (the internet is amazing). Maybe it's purpose is to challenge NATO's authority?

<tweet snip>

If you want to track it: https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=152c98

It looks like a passenger flight to Slovakia that somehow slipped through.

It seems so, people in the comments section shared sources that showed the flight as cancelled, but I guess not. It just entered Slovakian airspace.

Apparently, that's now also wrong. It is an Il-76, but just a civilian cargo plane.

Well, whatever the purpose, it's about to land.

[WD]

I refuse to believe the Russian military is so incompetent that they are allowing this "40 mile convoy" that is on the front page of CNN to remain as it is. Either it's been moved already or it's a trap to draw out Ukraine's air force and the Russians have AA guns/missiles and fighters ready to cut down the air attack.

Cope.

[emailking]

The US has solid intelligence that Putin is frustrated and expressing unusual bursts of anger at people in his inner circle over the state of the military campaign so far and the worldwide condemnation of his actions

Oh boohoo.

[brucejoel99]

https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1498491928471654400

The US has solid intelligence that Putin is frustrated and expressing unusual bursts of anger at people in his inner circle over the state of the military campaign so far and the worldwide condemnation of his actions

Oh boohoo.

Tbf, this isn't just interesting because "Putin's mad." It's interesting because the West is releasing this knowing full well that it'll feed into Putin's paranoia about a rat in his inner circle. Recall, he just spent the weekend convening the top oligarchs to him at his Ural mountain lair, so at least one of said oligarchs in the room with him must not like him anymore.

[Aurelius]

Also, it's clear that China got it right when it decided to ring-fence its internet, bar Western internet and social media companies that wouldn't meet its requirements, which turned out to be all of them, and develop domestic alternatives. Facebook and Twitter are turning out to be huge national security nightmares for Russia as they are clearly intervening on behalf of the Ukrainians and banning them now could cause backlash as there may not be an alternative (maybe Telegram?) and Russians are used to using them. China would not face this issue at all. Yes it's annoying to use the internet in China particularly to browse foreign websites but national security is more important than my convenience.

Why are you on an election discussion website when you clearly don't think elections should exist?

ChInA iS a WhOlE-pRoCeSs DeMoCrAcY

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1498491928471654400

The US has solid intelligence that Putin is frustrated and expressing unusual bursts of anger at people in his inner circle over the state of the military campaign so far and the worldwide condemnation of his actions

Oh boohoo.

Tbf, this isn't just interesting because "Putin's mad." It's interesting because the West is releasing this knowing full well that it'll feed into Putin's paranoia about a rat in his inner circle. Recall, he just spent the weekend convening the top oligarchs to him at his Ural mountain lair, so at least one of said oligarchs in the room with him must not like him anymore.

Or we just tapped the phones.

But please Mr. Putin, do start turning on those guys. I’m sure none of the basically mob bosses you’ve cost millions and now are physically threatening will do anything rash.

[NOVA Green]

Not going to be posting all Night long, but here is one of those "Human Interest Stories" (Not my normal bag), in this case about a Ukrainian mechanic trying to sabotage a Super Yacht in Spain, which might indicate about some of the Ukrainian Diaspora scattered around Western Europe might be feeling these days....

*** WARNING: DO NOT ATTEMPT TO PERFORM AT HOME ***

(Long article so either buy your own subscription or use a monthly freebie).   

"A Ukrainian mechanic heard about attacks in Kyiv, so he tried to sink a superyacht

By Brittany Shammas and Paulina Villegas8:36 p.m.

Taras Ostapchuk was on a break from his job as a yacht mechanic Saturday when he pulled up a news report on his cellphone.

Watching footage of a Russian missile striking an apartment building in Kyiv, the 55-year-old Ukrainian was devastated. Then he became angry because, by his account, the weapon may have been supplied by his boss.

The owner of the yacht he worked on — the $7 million Lady Anastasia, docked at the luxe Port Adriano on the Spanish island of Mallorca — is a Russian arms tycoon, he told authorities and reporters. The Washington Post was unable to confirm the yacht’s ownership Monday.

Ostapchuk decided to seek vengeance for his country — and sink the yacht.

“I told myself: ‘What do I need a job for if I don’t have a country?’ ” he told the Spanish newspaper Ultima Hora.

Ostapchuk, who was arrested by the Civil Guard national police, said in court testimony that he viewed his boss as a criminal because he sells weapons that could have been used against Ukrainians.

In court testimony and in media interviews, Ostapchuk described opening a valve in the Lady Anastasia’s machine room and another in its crew area. Not wanting to harm anyone, he told those aboard to abandon ship.

Three crew members protested, yelling that Ostapchuk was crazy. He reminded them that they, too, were Ukrainian and that their homeland was being attacked.

...."



https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/28/russia-ukraine-war-putin-news/#link-6LTFCKIKSRGZFKOA2MHFEJCFKI

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

Also, it's clear that China got it right when it decided to ring-fence its internet, bar Western internet and social media companies that wouldn't meet its requirements, which turned out to be all of them, and develop domestic alternatives. Facebook and Twitter are turning out to be huge national security nightmares for Russia as they are clearly intervening on behalf of the Ukrainians and banning them now could cause backlash as there may not be an alternative (maybe Telegram?) and Russians are used to using them. China would not face this issue at all. Yes it's annoying to use the internet in China particularly to browse foreign websites but national security is more important than my convenience.

COPE

[compucomp]

Also, it's clear that China got it right when it decided to ring-fence its internet, bar Western internet and social media companies that wouldn't meet its requirements, which turned out to be all of them, and develop domestic alternatives. Facebook and Twitter are turning out to be huge national security nightmares for Russia as they are clearly intervening on behalf of the Ukrainians and banning them now could cause backlash as there may not be an alternative (maybe Telegram?) and Russians are used to using them. China would not face this issue at all. Yes it's annoying to use the internet in China particularly to browse foreign websites but national security is more important than my convenience.

Why are you on an election discussion website when you clearly don't think elections should exist?

It's not an issue of censorship versus freedom. Besides, this forum is not averse to censorship in concept, after all it cheered feverishly when Trump was banned from Twitter and Facebook which may have been a more effective act of censorship than many  governments are capable. It's an issue of national security and not allowing critical media of communication to be controlled by foreign companies that may turn hostile. Facebook and Twitter are clearly enemies of Russia right now, that's their right as a private company but then Russia shouldn't be tolerating an enemy operating in their country during wartime, or anytime for that matter.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Also, it's clear that China got it right when it decided to ring-fence its internet, bar Western internet and social media companies that wouldn't meet its requirements, which turned out to be all of them, and develop domestic alternatives. Facebook and Twitter are turning out to be huge national security nightmares for Russia as they are clearly intervening on behalf of the Ukrainians and banning them now could cause backlash as there may not be an alternative (maybe Telegram?) and Russians are used to using them. China would not face this issue at all. Yes it's annoying to use the internet in China particularly to browse foreign websites but national security is more important than my convenience.

COPE

[It’s so Joever]

So Okay... didn't get home from work until about two hours ago, barely checked my media coverage, and instead thought I would spend a couple hours of my life going through every single post on this thread since my last post.

See how much I love Atlas?   

So basically today sounds like a relatively slow day on multiple fronts (Militarily, Politically, Economically, and even Socially).

I know Meclazine made a light hard meme about my heavy posting Yesterday, but still it seems like most of the items I posted were actually basically reflected or accentuated in today's News updates.



All right, now that I've digested two hours of Atlas, time to take a peak at the news to see if anything has been missed.

It feels like the Russians took the day to retool. Kharkiv is under siege again and it sounds bad. Kyiv, which allegedly high command demanded fall Monday only saw some probing attacks fall back but there is a massive troop deployment headed their way. The Belarusian paratroopers never materialized but there were earlier reports of their army massing at Brest.

As always, Pray for Ukraine

Kharkiv is under siege again?! I never saw that, are you talking about Mariupol?

Also the Brest movements further confirm my suspicions of a Northwest Ukraine front opening soon.

[brucejoel99]

https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1498491928471654400

The US has solid intelligence that Putin is frustrated and expressing unusual bursts of anger at people in his inner circle over the state of the military campaign so far and the worldwide condemnation of his actions

Oh boohoo.

Tbf, this isn't just interesting because "Putin's mad." It's interesting because the West is releasing this knowing full well that it'll feed into Putin's paranoia about a rat in his inner circle. Recall, he just spent the weekend convening the top oligarchs to him at his Ural mountain lair, so at least one of said oligarchs in the room with him must not like him anymore.

Or we just tapped the phones.

But please Mr. Putin, do start turning on those guys. I’m sure none of the basically mob bosses you’ve cost millions and now are physically threatening will do anything rash.

It's waaay more likely that we have an asset in play. Most of these convos wouldn't be conducted on any kind of an electric system, & any that are would obviously be heavily encrypted. Additionally, most of these oligarchs have some kind of American ties, so it wouldn't be all that difficult for our intelligence apparatus to find one who'd be willing to cooperate.

[emailking]

I agree, it sounds like we have somebody high up on the inside. But also no way to really know.

[NOVA Green]

So for anybody not familiar with the history of Molotov Cocktail, and why it is perhaps particularly salient in Ukraine, here is a brief primer and history lesson published earlier today on the Washington Post:

Although it might seem relatively ineffective against a heavily armored force, it might actually be surprisingly effective in a war which in many cases resembles much more of a WW II era combat scene than what many Americans are used to seeing.

(Again buy your own subscription or use a freebie.)

"Ukrainians are hurling Molotov cocktails at Russians. Hungarians and Finns have done the same.

By Michael Ruane5:04 p.m.

The young men waited in the shadows until the Russian tank had passed them on the narrow city street. Then one jumped from a doorway, climbed onto the vehicle and jammed a crowbar into its tread, bringing it to a halt.

When a member of the tank crew cracked open a hatch to take a look, another man threw a flaming molotov cocktail, while the first man jerked open the hatch and dropped in a hand grenade. Other men then clambered over the tank, yanked out the Russians and shot them.

“As long as there are old bottles and gasoline supplies and rags to serve for fuses, no Russian tank will be safe in the streets,” a member of the besieged country’s defiant government declared in the New York Times. (His name was withheld for security reasons.)

The Russian army has “met its match in the molotov cocktail,” he proclaimed.

The city was Budapest. The year was 1956. And the Hungarian dissidents, according to accounts in the Times and The Washington Post, were fighting an invasion by Soviet Russia.

...

But the weapon was also featured in an official 1943 U.S. Army training film explaining how to destroy Nazi tanks, titled “Crack That Tank.”

As a soldier in a foxhole demonstrates, a narrator (dressed as an army sergeant) explains: “Light the rag, heave the bottle so it busts on top of the tank and this is what you get.” The film shows a “cocktail” exploding on a simulated tank.

“The burning gas pours through cracks and crevices in the tank,” the narrator says. “Nine times out of 10, it’ll find oil or grease or more gas inside.”

"


https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/28/russia-ukraine-war-putin-news/#link-ISF5E3RBABG5LCPMSJFMOWFDWQ

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1498491928471654400

The US has solid intelligence that Putin is frustrated and expressing unusual bursts of anger at people in his inner circle over the state of the military campaign so far and the worldwide condemnation of his actions

Oh boohoo.

Tbf, this isn't just interesting because "Putin's mad." It's interesting because the West is releasing this knowing full well that it'll feed into Putin's paranoia about a rat in his inner circle. Recall, he just spent the weekend convening the top oligarchs to him at his Ural mountain lair, so at least one of said oligarchs in the room with him must not like him anymore.

Or we just tapped the phones.

But please Mr. Putin, do start turning on those guys. I’m sure none of the basically mob bosses you’ve cost millions and now are physically threatening will do anything rash.

It's waaay more likely that we have an asset in play. Most of these convos wouldn't be conducted on any kind of an electric system, & any that are would obviously be heavily encrypted. Additionally, most of these oligarchs have some kind of American ties, so it wouldn't be all that difficult for our intelligence apparatus to find one who'd be willing to cooperate.

Is it obvious, given how loose the military's infosec in the field has turned out to be?

That aside, I do agree with you that we've probably turned at least one of the oligarchs by now, in addition to any signals intelligence or bugging work going on.

[NOVA Green]

New Zealand is now trying to figure out how to sanction Russia as a result of the Invasion of Ukraine per Wall Street Journal from an hour or so back:

(Again I have a paid subscription so you'll have to buy your own or do a trial membership to read the full article and this is but a fragment of a long article)

"U.S., Allies Are Ramping Up Sanctions on Russia, but One Country Is Sitting Out

New Zealand lacks an independent sanctions law that would allow it to target the Kremlin

WELLINGTON, New Zealand—A close U.S. ally, New Zealand has been limited in how far it can go punishing Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. Now some lawmakers are pushing for the country to adopt a law that would allow it to do more.

New Zealand—a member of the “Five Eyes” intelligence grouping that includes the U.S., Canada, Australia and the U.K.—doesn’t have an independent sanctions law that would allow it to target Russian President Vladimir Putin, lawmakers and oligarchs directly while also restricting Russia’s ability to access global financial markets.

Instead, the South Pacific country only implements sanctions decided by the U.N. Security Council where Russia has a veto as a permanent member. New Zealand’s response to the war in Ukraine has so far involved suspending consultations with Russia’s foreign ministry and banning some 80 Russian officials from traveling to New Zealand. It has also prohibited what were its limited exports to Russia’s military and security services using a national-security exemption available to World Trade Organization members.

Foreign-policy experts and some lawmakers consider that response to be inadequate and risks creating a perception that New Zealand could become a backdoor for Russian money unable to find a home elsewhere. The opposition National Party is pushing for New Zealand to adopt a sanctions law, possibly styled after the U.S. Magnitsky Act, offering bipartisan support if the government wants to move quickly on a bill. It worries that a lack of a sanctions law projects weakness.

....

Geoffrey Miller, an international analyst at Victoria University’s Democracy Project, said New Zealand’s lack of sanctions might lead to a perception or an actual risk that it is a haven for the wealth of Russian officials sanctioned by other countries.

Ms. Ardern on Monday said the government is looking at whether its overseas investment regulator can use an existing national-interest test to halt new Russian investment in New Zealand, a step that wouldn’t involve a law change.

...."


https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-allies-are-ramping-up-sanctions-on-russia-but-one-country-is-sitting-out-11646111946?st=8vu5ywxqr6pt1on&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink