Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[John Dule]

US officials believe a huge second wave of Russian soldiers who will be able to overwhelm the Ukrainian resistance is coming according to CNN.

This was bound to happen at some point. I guess we just have to wish that the resistance is able to keep some territory to operate out of and that the Ukrainians and the rest of the world can continue to make this as costly on Russia as possible.

The numbers are overwhelming, but the logistics are still pretty daunting for Russia. A lot of troops and tanks won't do much good if they're low on food, sleep, and gas. Hopefully the spring thaw will bog the Russians down in the mud, and roads will be blocked by destroyed columns of armored vehicles.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Someone somewhere mentioned that Putin intended his blitzkrieg invasion of Ukraine as the 21st century version of the 1956 Suez Canal Crisis that would be to the United States what the original was to Britain and France.  Clearly his gambit has backfired big time, revealing it is Russia -and not the United States- that can no longer be regarded as a true global superpower.  

Unless of course you consider the nuclear weapons stockpile it inherited from the Soviet Union, but then again so do Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel...and they can hardly be considered 'superpowers' in any real sense of the term.  

After the collapse of the USSR, Russia lost it's superpower status. Russia is still a great power similar to Japan, Germany, France and the UK.

You could make the argument that Russia is a regional power (Turkey, Italy, Brazil, Nigeria) that just happens to have nuclear weapons.

I’ve always assumed that a conventional conflict with Russia would be quite costly on the US/NATO side. (Infact, back in the Cold War the planners thought that the Red Army would quickly overrun continental Europe with sheer numbers, that’s why America never committed to no first use). After seeing the Ukraine operations, I doubt they fair much better than the Iraqis in the first Gulf War.

Obligatory disclaimer, nukes still means we should never, ever try it.

Beware, that Russia has not been fighting according to their training or typical tactics. In case we actually went to war with fought Russia, it would likely get very serious, very fast.

I’m aware of that, or at least heard Russia experts saying that, but I’m not talking about training and tactics, I’m talking doctrine. Big picture, the Russian army is acting like the 60s or 70s vintage Red Army, advancing on three axes in giant formations along main roads, the BTGs that are the basic unit appear to be just big clumps of soldiers as compared to the dispersed small tactical units with independent initiative of a survivable modern peer army. This is both exactly the army that the US military has been built and planning for 70 plus years to beat and looks like nothing so much as 90s Iraqis.
MAD being what it is, we’ll thankfully never have to find out, but I definitely would not want to be on the Russian end if we did.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

US officials believe a huge second wave of Russian soldiers who will be able to overwhelm the Ukrainian resistance is coming according to CNN.

This was bound to happen at some point. I guess we just have to wish that the resistance is able to keep some territory to operate out of and that the Ukrainians and the rest of the world can continue to make this as costly on Russia as possible.

The numbers are overwhelming, but the logistics are still pretty daunting for Russia. A lot of troops and tanks won't do much good if they're low on food, sleep, and gas. Hopefully the spring thaw will bog the Russians down in the mud, and roads will be blocked by destroyed columns of armored vehicles.

Even beyond that, numbers are pretty meaningless if the logistics aren’t there to deploy them. If I’ve got a hundred tanks but only the fuel and spare parts keep ten running at any given time, I’ve actually only got ten tanks.

[Storr]

Unlike the Russians, Ukraine is having "good" problems to deal with. AK-47s are the most produced military rifle in history, right? You'd think it shouldn't be too difficult to get some surplus ones from friendly ex-Warsaw Pact nations.

https://twitter.com/JacquiHeinrich/status/1498499510049427457?s=20&t=q2PhVpX...

[Storebought]

What's the 'easiest' way to roast a 40 mile convoy without air power?

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

What's the 'easiest' way to roast a 40 mile convoy without air power?

A sh!tload of I.E.D.'s?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1498491928471654400

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

What's the 'easiest' way to roast a 40 mile convoy without air power?

Artillery, but the more efficient answer might be blow bridges, barricade and/or tear up roads, and let the traffic jam do the work for you.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Unlike the Russians, Ukraine is having "good" problems to deal with. AK-47s are the most produced military rifle in history, right? You'd think it shouldn't be too difficult to get some surplus ones from friendly ex-Warsaw Pact nations.

https://twitter.com/JacquiHeinrich/status/1498499510049427457?s=20&t=q2PhVpX...

I've heard from Congolese refugees I've talked to that you can make a decent AK-47 analogue yourself if you remember enough of high school shop class.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1498491928471654400

[compucomp]

I refuse to believe the Russian military is so incompetent that they are allowing this "40 mile convoy" that is on the front page of CNN to remain as it is. Either it's been moved already or it's a trap to draw out Ukraine's air force and the Russians have AA guns/missiles and fighters ready to cut down the air attack.

[The Free North]

https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1498491928471654400

Steiner's attack will bring things under control again.

Edit: Damn, someone beat me too it lol

[Storr]

https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1498491928471654400

The fine folks at reddit have already made a Putin invading Ukraine version:

https://www.reddit.com/r/NonCredibleDefense/comments/t3nj96/leaked_footage_from_putins_bunker_in_the_ural/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

[pppolitics]

I refuse to believe the Russian military is so incompetent that they are allowing this "40 mile convoy" that is on the front page of CNN to remain as it is. Either it's been moved already or it's a trap to draw out Ukraine's air force and the Russians have AA guns/missiles and fighters ready to cut down the air attack.

Clearly, you missed the past five days

[Roll Roons]

I refuse to believe the Russian military is so incompetent that they are allowing this "40 mile convoy" that is on the front page of CNN to remain as it is. Either it's been moved already or it's a trap to draw out Ukraine's air force and the Russians have AA guns/missiles and fighters ready to cut down the air attack.

You may not believe it, but they really are that incompetent. Cope and seethe.

[KaiserDave]

What word from Kherson?

[The Free North]

What word from Kherson?

Heavy fighting it seems but unclear outcome thus far.

[Storr]

Bruh
https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1498512490707234821?s=20&t=eJtQmF0HHt0...

https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1498510963565383680?s=20&t=eJtQmF0HHt07...

[NOVA Green]

So Okay... didn't get home from work until about two hours ago, barely checked my media coverage, and instead thought I would spend a couple hours of my life going through every single post on this thread since my last post.

See how much I love Atlas?   

So basically today sounds like a relatively slow day on multiple fronts (Militarily, Politically, Economically, and even Socially).

I know Meclazine made a light hard meme about my heavy posting Yesterday, but still it seems like most of the items I posted were actually basically reflected or accentuated in today's News updates.



All right, now that I've digested two hours of Atlas, time to take a peak at the news to see if anything has been missed.

[Storr]

Wow, a Russian Il-76 is currently violating the Polish ban on Russian planes flying in its airspace. I'm tracking it now (the internet is amazing). Maybe it's purpose is to challenge NATO's authority?

https://twitter.com/IntelDoge/status/1498517509506543616?s=20&t=eJtQmF0HHt07...

If you want to track it: https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=152c98

[NOVA Green]

Don't believe this has been posted yet, but here is an interesting report from not so long ago on the New York Times about how the vaunted Russian Cyberattack on Ukraine failed on the eve of War....

"As tanks rolled into Ukraine, so did malware. Then Microsoft entered the war.

Last Wednesday, a few hours before Russian tanks began rolling into Ukraine, alarms went off inside Microsoft’s Threat Intelligence Center, warning of a never-before-seen piece of “wiper” malware that appeared aimed at the country’s government ministries and financial institutions.

Within three hours, Microsoft threw itself into the middle of a ground war in Europe — from 5,500 miles away. The threat center, north of Seattle, had been on high alert, and it quickly picked apart the malware, named it “FoxBlade” and notified Ukraine’s top cyberdefense authority. Within three hours, Microsoft’s virus detection systems had been updated to block the code, which erases — “wipes” — data on computers in a network.

Then Tom Burt, the senior Microsoft executive who oversees the company’s effort to counter major cyberattacks, contacted Anne Neuberger, the White House’s deputy national security adviser for cyber- and emerging technologies. Ms. Neuberger asked if Microsoft would consider sharing details of the code with the Baltics, Poland and other European nations, out of fear that the malware would spread beyond Ukraine’s borders, crippling the military alliance or hitting West European banks.

"


https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/28/world/ukraine-russia-war/as-tanks-rolled-into-ukraine-so-did-malware-then-microsoft-entered-the-war

[compucomp]

Also, it's clear that China got it right when it decided to ring-fence its internet, bar Western internet and social media companies that wouldn't meet its requirements, which turned out to be all of them, and develop domestic alternatives. Facebook and Twitter are turning out to be huge national security nightmares for Russia as they are clearly intervening on behalf of the Ukrainians and banning them now could cause backlash as there may not be an alternative (maybe Telegram?) and Russians are used to using them. China would not face this issue at all. Yes it's annoying to use the internet in China particularly to browse foreign websites but national security is more important than my convenience.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

So Okay... didn't get home from work until about two hours ago, barely checked my media coverage, and instead thought I would spend a couple hours of my life going through every single post on this thread since my last post.

See how much I love Atlas?   

So basically today sounds like a relatively slow day on multiple fronts (Militarily, Politically, Economically, and even Socially).

I know Meclazine made a light hard meme about my heavy posting Yesterday, but still it seems like most of the items I posted were actually basically reflected or accentuated in today's News updates.



All right, now that I've digested two hours of Atlas, time to take a peak at the news to see if anything has been missed.

It feels like the Russians took the day to retool. Kharkiv is under siege again and it sounds bad. Kyiv, which allegedly high command demanded fall Monday only saw some probing attacks fall back but there is a massive troop deployment headed their way. The Belarusian paratroopers never materialized but there were earlier reports of their army massing at Brest.

As always, Pray for Ukraine

[KaiserDave]

Also, it's clear that China got it right when it decided to ring-fence its internet, bar Western internet and social media companies that wouldn't meet its requirements, which turned out to be all of them, and develop domestic alternatives. Facebook and Twitter are turning out to be huge national security nightmares for Russia as they are clearly intervening on behalf of the Ukrainians and banning them now could cause backlash as there may not be an alternative (maybe Telegram?) and Russians are used to using them. China would not face this issue at all. Yes it's annoying to use the internet in China particularly to browse foreign websites but national security is more important than my convenience.

You are a pathetic excuse of a human who is desirous of oppression, we know this.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Wow, a Russian Il-76 is currently violating the Polish ban on Russian planes flying in its airspace. I'm tracking it now (the internet is amazing). Maybe it's purpose is to challenge NATO's authority?

https://twitter.com/IntelDoge/status/1498517509506543616?s=20&t=eJtQmF0HHt07...

If you want to track it: https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=152c98

It looks like a passenger flight to Slovakia that somehow slipped through.