Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Estrella]

Emerging market currencies down 2%. RUB crashed below 110.  Russian banks raise mortgage rates by 4% in anticipation of rising credit issues and inflation.  So far the shock is about the same or a bit less than the late 2014 shock but this is just the beginning.

Only 2014?! That’s awful, no?

The markets are not fully open. FX trade as I said is very very light. The ruble is not one of the main traded pairs anyways. Equity markets fell as much as 40% on Friday in Moscow. There will be more to come.

Could this become a legitimate humanitarian crisis?

Russia has enough farmland to feed its people and enough oil to keep the lights on. It's not going to be a humanitarian crisis, but it is going to be a early 2010s Greece speedrun within a week.

[Flyersfan232]

Is Ukrainians using the Russians sh**ts they left behind?

[Person Man]

Emerging market currencies down 2%. RUB crashed below 110.  Russian banks raise mortgage rates by 4% in anticipation of rising credit issues and inflation.  So far the shock is about the same or a bit less than the late 2014 shock but this is just the beginning.

Only 2014?! That’s awful, no?

The markets are not fully open. FX trade as I said is very very light. The ruble is not one of the main traded pairs anyways. Equity markets fell as much as 40% on Friday in Moscow. There will be more to come.

Could this become a legitimate humanitarian crisis?

Russia has enough farmland to feed its people and enough oil to keep the lights on. It's not going to be a humanitarian crisis, but it is going to be a early 2010s Greece speedrun within a week.

So they will all be living on ramen?

[Meclazine for Israel]

161 pages, 30 of them by NOVA Green.

[Flyersfan232]

Emerging market currencies down 2%. RUB crashed below 110.  Russian banks raise mortgage rates by 4% in anticipation of rising credit issues and inflation.  So far the shock is about the same or a bit less than the late 2014 shock but this is just the beginning.

Only 2014?! That’s awful, no?

The markets are not fully open. FX trade as I said is very very light. The ruble is not one of the main traded pairs anyways. Equity markets fell as much as 40% on Friday in Moscow. There will be more to come.

Could this become a legitimate humanitarian crisis?

Russia has enough farmland to feed its people and enough oil to keep the lights on. It's not going to be a humanitarian crisis, but it is going to be a early 2010s Greece speedrun within a week.

can’t csto and China prop them up?

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

If true, Belarusian forces has already been compromised before they've even done anything, by the founder of a random NGO no less:

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1498070435510067204?s=20&t=Bjbs6jzZB...

I hope the Ukrainians have fun shooting them out of the sky!

[Person Man]

Is Ukrainians using the Russians sh**ts they left behind?

Why? They have nicer stuff.

[NOVA Green]

If true, Belarusian forces has already been compromised before they've even done anything, by the founder of a random NGO no less:

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1498070435510067204?s=20&t=Bjbs6jzZB...

Wait--- where the hell would these Belarusian forces be dropping anyways?

Even the Russian paratrooper drops in Ukraine were pretty much easily repelled except a symbolic drop in the SE front far away from enemy lines and air defense systems....

[Flyersfan232]

Is Ukrainians using the Russians sh**ts they left behind?

Why? They have nicer stuff.

Use everything possible

[Estrella]

Emerging market currencies down 2%. RUB crashed below 110.  Russian banks raise mortgage rates by 4% in anticipation of rising credit issues and inflation.  So far the shock is about the same or a bit less than the late 2014 shock but this is just the beginning.

Only 2014?! That’s awful, no?

The markets are not fully open. FX trade as I said is very very light. The ruble is not one of the main traded pairs anyways. Equity markets fell as much as 40% on Friday in Moscow. There will be more to come.

Could this become a legitimate humanitarian crisis?

Russia has enough farmland to feed its people and enough oil to keep the lights on. It's not going to be a humanitarian crisis, but it is going to be a early 2010s Greece speedrun within a week.

So they will all be living on ramen?

Traditionally it would be bread, but China will be more than happy to squeeze every last kopek out of them, so ramen it is.

[Person Man]

Emerging market currencies down 2%. RUB crashed below 110.  Russian banks raise mortgage rates by 4% in anticipation of rising credit issues and inflation.  So far the shock is about the same or a bit less than the late 2014 shock but this is just the beginning.

Only 2014?! That’s awful, no?

The markets are not fully open. FX trade as I said is very very light. The ruble is not one of the main traded pairs anyways. Equity markets fell as much as 40% on Friday in Moscow. There will be more to come.

Could this become a legitimate humanitarian crisis?

Russia has enough farmland to feed its people and enough oil to keep the lights on. It's not going to be a humanitarian crisis, but it is going to be a early 2010s Greece speedrun within a week.

can’t csto and China prop them up?

Hopefully this will force Russia into be more controlled by China.

[Person Man]

Is Ukrainians using the Russians sh**ts they left behind?

Why? They have nicer stuff.

Use everything possible

If it works.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Guys, I made a meme.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

161 pages, 30 of them by NOVA Green.

NOVA Green is a great poster. But I recommended this because I like cats.

[brucejoel99]

If the EU's Ukrainian assistance includes access to NATO's air-to-air weapons systems, then tonight is gonna be a very bad night to be a Belarusian paratrooper.

[nicholas.slaydon]

If the EU's Ukrainian assistance includes access to NATO's air-to-air weapons systems, then tonight is gonna be a very bad night to be a Belarusian paratrooper.

May they rest in pieces

[Storr]

If true, Belarusian forces has already been compromised before they've even done anything, by the founder of a random NGO no less:

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1498070435510067204?s=20&t=Bjbs6jzZB...

Wait--- where the hell would these Belarusian forces be dropping anyways?

Even the Russian paratrooper drops in Ukraine were pretty much easily repelled except a symbolic drop in the SE front far away from enemy lines and air defense systems....

It seems to be assumed (or already known because of intelligence??) that Putin wants to open a front in northwestern Ukraine, launching the attack from Belarus. The rationale would be to put more pressure on Ukraine's forces in the rest of the country, and if possible block arms and supplies shipments which are flowing east from Poland.

The obvious issue is does Putin have enough forces to successfully complete such an attack? If operations in the rest of Ukraine give us an accurate indication, the answer is no. If he doesn't, how much of the invasion force will be Belarusian and how effective will their forces be on the battlefield?

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

Guys, I made a meme.

THANK YOU!!!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Guys, I made a meme.

THANK YOU!!!

No prob man!
Meme making is in my DNA

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Latvian news. The anchor's sweater reads "Russian warship go f[inks] yourself"

[NOVA Green]

161 pages, 30 of them by NOVA Green.

But why do you have me wearing a woman's wedding ring?

I provided the ORIGINAL Pornhub quote and then you waltz along behind me today and claiming like it is "new news"   

Just for you will quote your earlier post

Okay, perhaps a bit petty and forgot to mention it when I first saw the article yesterday, but Pornhub has now blocked their content from Russian Users....

https://groundreport.in/pornhub-ban-russia-sanctions-no-one-is-talking-about/

Now--- Pornhub and Russia have exchanged beef before, going way back to 2016 and 2017

https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/pornhub-youporn-russia-blocked-premium-vladimir-putin-meet-people-in-real-life-a7308391.html

https://nakedsecurity.sophos.com/2017/07/12/russians-told-to-log-in-to-pornhub-using-verified-social-media-accounts/

https://www.vox.com/2017/6/2/15726082/russia-putin-navalny-pornhub

Meanwhile, you stole my Pornhub and made it your own...

Sanctions just got real for the Russians.

[Storr]

Speaking of memes, I feel like this has fertile meme potential:

https://twitter.com/IntelDoge/status/1498033796679147524?s=20&t=s7jxxuMU26dq...

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1498060945070956551

[It’s so Joever]

Let's not discredit the success of a Northwestern front. There are far fewer Ukranian troops out there iirc and there may be less preparation for it than say the defenses near Kyiv and the East which has been in a perpetual state of war.

[Omega21]

https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1498060945070956551

Expected to be honest. No one in their right mind would invest in Russia for the foreseeable future, so why not stop existing investors from liquidating...