Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[rc18]

This new stuff feels different; this is about solidifying public opinion within Russia to support an incursion, rather than making external threats. I think you'd only do this if you were actually going to pull the trigger and do something, because Putin would look weak otherwise. Either he's going in or at the very least feels close to a major diplomatic concession that could be sold as a victory.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Biden just said in his press conference that he believes Putin has made the decision to invade.

Biden just said in his press conference that he believes Putin has made the decision to invade.

He said, too, that Russia is going to take Kiev...

We have reason to believe Russian forces intend to attack Ukraine in the coming days. We believe they intend to attack Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

This new stuff feels different; this is about solidifying public opinion within Russia to support an incursion, rather than making external threats. I think you'd only do this if you were actually going to pull the trigger and do something, because Putin would look weak otherwise. Either he's going in or at the very least feels close to a major diplomatic concession that could be sold as a victory.

Yeah, as I said earlier today, Putin raised the stakes today. Yesterday he complained that West didn't push Ze to implement Minsk, and today he pulled the first trigger. I think, Minsk Agreement (perhaps, on drugs) is the least he can accept right now.

With that said, I still extremely doubtful about this Kiev thing, Biden keeps talking about. It doesn't help Ukraine, either.

https://twitter.com/nytimesworld/status/1494752580194418705
How Putin Has Already Weakened Ukraine’s Economy
Flights have been canceled, commercial shipping is threatened, and people fear an invasion is not far off.

Without outright declaring war or taking action that would trigger the harsh sanctions promised by the West, Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin, has once again succeeded in destabilizing Ukraine and making clear that Russia could wreck the country’s economy. The evacuation announced last week of American, British and Canadian citizens has led to panic. Several international airlines have stopped flights into the country. Russian naval exercises in the Black Sea have exposed the vulnerability of Ukraine’s critical ports for commercial shipping.

The anxiety coursing through Kyiv is exactly what Mr. Putin hopes to achieve, according to Pavlo Kukhta, an adviser to Ukraine’s minister of energy. “What they want to do is the equivalent of winning the war without firing a single bullet, by causing massive panic here,” Mr. Kukhta said.

Timofiy Mylovanov, president of the Kyiv School of Economics and a former minister of economic development, said his institution has estimated that the crisis has already cost Ukraine “several billion dollars,” just in the past few weeks. War or a long siege would only worsen the situation.

“You either get an invasion or your economy hurts,” he said.

The first major blow came Monday when two Ukrainian airlines said they were unable to acquire insurance for their flights, forcing Ukraine’s government to create a $592 million insurance fund to keep planes flying. On Feb. 11, London-based insurers had warned aviation companies that they would be unable to insure flights to Ukraine or those flying above its airspace. Malaysia Airlines, which had a plane shot down above territory controlled by pro-Moscow rebels in 2014, responded by saying it would halt flights. Germany’s Lufthansa said it was considering a suspension.

On Tuesday, Ukraine was subjected to a massive cyberattack, as hackers flooded the servers hosting websites until the servers became overloaded and shut down. Officials blamed Russia, though the Kremlin denied involvement. Still, Ukraine officials said it was the largest distributed denial-of-service attack in the country’s history and targeted government ministries and state banks.

[It’s so Joever]

We shouldn’t nuke Moscow, but if we do, it would be their fault for invading.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

First "casualties":

https://twitter.com/UkrWarReport/status/1494791327724281873

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

First "casualties":

https://twitter.com/UkrWarReport/status/1494791327724281873

What exactly sparked this?

[Green Line]

This new stuff feels different; this is about solidifying public opinion within Russia to support an incursion, rather than making external threats. I think you'd only do this if you were actually going to pull the trigger and do something, because Putin would look weak otherwise. Either he's going in or at the very least feels close to a major diplomatic concession that could be sold as a victory.

Yeah, as I said earlier today, Putin raised the stakes today. Yesterday he complained that West didn't push Ze to implement Minsk, and today he pulled the first trigger. I think, Minsk Agreement (perhaps, on drugs) is the least he can accept right now.

With that said, I still extremely doubtful about this Kiev thing, Biden keeps talking about. It doesn't help Ukraine, either.

Russian Bear,

What do average Russians think about all this, from your perspective?  Do they find the reports from Russian media credible, and would a war be popular?

[Torie]

If the main Russian aim is to go straight to Kyiv, and effect a regime change, which is the most recent media chat, is there any escape that Russia wants Ukraine to be a puppet state or annex it, and is willing to bear any cost, bear any burden, to effect that? And then what?

Meanwhile the securities markets seem relatively calm.

[It’s so Joever]

I have lived 19 years longer than many, and they have been a wonderful time filled with joyous, tumultuous, and mundane moments. I have made many wonderful friends and have had the privilege of living in a flawed, yet wonderful country. America is a s**thole, but it’s a s**thole we can change together, but only when united in strength. I personally will do whatever I can to support the war effort against the aggressors. We can’t allow this type of behavior simply because the aggressor has nuclear weapons, it sets a bad precedent. Lines have to be drawn, and that line is Ukraine. Tbh I don’t know if I would even be allowed in combat (epileptic, but controlled with meds) but if I am, I will volunteer to protect this community. Acknowledging I would likely either die or have severe mental trauma for life, the community has given me so much, it’s only fair to give back.

I hope Biden declares war or at least sends funds to militia groups of any type if the invasion occurs and I will do whatever is needed to halt the aggressors in their bloody tracks.

I hope all other Americans feel this way, because we can and will stop the aggressors, god bless America!

[GoTfan]

You want Biden to declare war on Russia?

Do you want a global nuclear war? That's how you're gonna get a global nuclear war. Call me a coward if you want, I don't care. I think a little cowardice is necessary when a war between the US and Russia would quite likely destroy the world was we know it.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

First "casualties":

https://twitter.com/UkrWarReport/status/1494791327724281873

Hardly the first. Per Wikipedia, thousands have been injured or killed since Putin invaded Ukraine seven years ago.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

This new stuff feels different; this is about solidifying public opinion within Russia to support an incursion, rather than making external threats. I think you'd only do this if you were actually going to pull the trigger and do something, because Putin would look weak otherwise. Either he's going in or at the very least feels close to a major diplomatic concession that could be sold as a victory.

Yeah, as I said earlier today, Putin raised the stakes today. Yesterday he complained that West didn't push Ze to implement Minsk, and today he pulled the first trigger. I think, Minsk Agreement (perhaps, on drugs) is the least he can accept right now.

With that said, I still extremely doubtful about this Kiev thing, Biden keeps talking about. It doesn't help Ukraine, either.

Russian Bear,

What do average Russians think about all this, from your perspective?  Do they find the reports from Russian media credible, and would a war be popular?

Well, it's difficult to speak for an average Russian. Today's reports about Donbass? Probably, not so credible, but a sizable minority probably believes that. War? Very unpopular. The reason why I don't believe Putin will invade Ukraine and take Kiev is exactly because such war would be extremely unpopular and would probably mean the end of Putin. Officially annexing Donbass is probably doable and relatively uncontroversial, especially if Putin rebuilds that. But the problem then that harsh sanctions would probably come and make it much less popular so IDK even about that. Recognizing Donbass independent and more actively controlling it is imo most likely scenario.

With that said anti-NATO sentiments are *very* strong among Russians. So I can see some quick fights with Ukrainian army or something similar in the name of making NATO impossible? But taking Kiev (or other big cities) sounds really really unbelievable. Nobody really believes something like this can happen.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I will do whatever is needed to halt the aggressors in their bloody tracks.

Buy ticket to Ukraine and fight for their freedom!

[It’s so Joever]

I will do whatever is needed to halt the aggressors in their bloody tracks.

Buy ticket to Ukraine and fight for their freedom!

If the US fights back I won’t need to buy the ticket, still gotta save that money for what remains of my family!

[GoTfan]

I will do whatever is needed to halt the aggressors in their bloody tracks.

Buy ticket to Ukraine and fight for their freedom!

If the US fights back I won’t need to buy the ticket, still gotta save that money for what remains of my family!

Don't you understand?

If the US formally goes to war with Russia, there won't be any remains of anyone's families.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

First "casualties":

https://twitter.com/UkrWarReport/status/1494791327724281873

What exactly sparked this?

Well, I don't know all the details (Andriy would be more helpful). But the guy who was beaten has very pro-Russian views and has been called for fifth column together with other guy Muraev (whom per UK/US intel Putin would install after taking Kiev) earlier on this debate show. He's against NATO and, I believe, he blamed current situation mostly on Poroshenko's team and didn't want to put much blame on Putin, and that's why he got beaten.

[It’s so Joever]

I will do whatever is needed to halt the aggressors in their bloody tracks.

Buy ticket to Ukraine and fight for their freedom!

If the US fights back I won’t need to buy the ticket, still gotta save that money for what remains of my family!

Don't you understand?

If the US formally goes to war with Russia, there won't be any remains of anyone's families.

Oh well then.

[GoTfan]

I will do whatever is needed to halt the aggressors in their bloody tracks.

Buy ticket to Ukraine and fight for their freedom!

If the US fights back I won’t need to buy the ticket, still gotta save that money for what remains of my family!

Don't you understand?

If the US formally goes to war with Russia, there won't be any remains of anyone's families.

Oh well then.

You seem to not fully grasp the idea of what happens if Russia and the US go to war. The end result will be a global thermonuclear war that will destroy the majority of the world and leave the remainder with little to no future.

[It’s so Joever]

I will do whatever is needed to halt the aggressors in their bloody tracks.

Buy ticket to Ukraine and fight for their freedom!

If the US fights back I won’t need to buy the ticket, still gotta save that money for what remains of my family!

Don't you understand?

If the US formally goes to war with Russia, there won't be any remains of anyone's families.

Oh well then.

You seem to not fully grasp the idea of what happens if Russia and the US go to war. The end result will be a global thermonuclear war that will destroy the majority of the world and leave the remainder with little to no future.

Oh I know. If Russia wants to end humanity, that is their choice.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I will do whatever is needed to halt the aggressors in their bloody tracks.

Buy ticket to Ukraine and fight for their freedom!

If the US fights back I won’t need to buy the ticket, still gotta save that money for what remains of my family!

Don't you understand?

If the US formally goes to war with Russia, there won't be any remains of anyone's families.

Oh well then.

You seem to not fully grasp the idea of what happens if Russia and the US go to war. The end result will be a global thermonuclear war that will destroy the majority of the world and leave the remainder with little to no future.

He trolls and is bad at it.

[GoTfan]

I will do whatever is needed to halt the aggressors in their bloody tracks.

Buy ticket to Ukraine and fight for their freedom!

If the US fights back I won’t need to buy the ticket, still gotta save that money for what remains of my family!

Don't you understand?

If the US formally goes to war with Russia, there won't be any remains of anyone's families.

Oh well then.

You seem to not fully grasp the idea of what happens if Russia and the US go to war. The end result will be a global thermonuclear war that will destroy the majority of the world and leave the remainder with little to no future.

He trolls and is bad at it.

Thanks for the heads up.

I just don't understand how anyone could feasibly cheer for nuclear war. The survivors of it will envy those who died.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I will do whatever is needed to halt the aggressors in their bloody tracks.

Buy ticket to Ukraine and fight for their freedom!

If the US fights back I won’t need to buy the ticket, still gotta save that money for what remains of my family!

Don't you understand?

If the US formally goes to war with Russia, there won't be any remains of anyone's families.

Oh well then.

You seem to not fully grasp the idea of what happens if Russia and the US go to war. The end result will be a global thermonuclear war that will destroy the majority of the world and leave the remainder with little to no future.

He trolls and is bad at it.

Thanks for the heads up.

I just don't understand how anyone could feasibly cheer for nuclear war. The survivors of it will envy those who died.

Yeah, but on that matter Biden has been very restrained and clear. He mentions almost every speech that he won't send any soldier to Ukraine even for evacuating Americans exactly, because he doesn't want any possibility to arise when Russians and Americans attack each other.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/biden-warns-americans-leave-ukraine-russia-troops-world-war-rcna15781

"American citizens should leave now," Biden said in an interview with NBC News anchor Lester Holt.

“It’s not like we’re dealing with a terrorist organization. We’re dealing with one of the largest armies in the world. It’s a very different situation, and things could go crazy quickly,” he said.

Holt asked Biden what scenario could prompt him to send troops to rescue Americans fleeing the country. Biden replied: “There’s not. That's a world war when Americans and Russia start shooting at one another.”

[It’s so Joever]

I will do whatever is needed to halt the aggressors in their bloody tracks.

Buy ticket to Ukraine and fight for their freedom!

If the US fights back I won’t need to buy the ticket, still gotta save that money for what remains of my family!

Don't you understand?

If the US formally goes to war with Russia, there won't be any remains of anyone's families.

Oh well then.

You seem to not fully grasp the idea of what happens if Russia and the US go to war. The end result will be a global thermonuclear war that will destroy the majority of the world and leave the remainder with little to no future.

He trolls and is bad at it.

This is literally the most ironic comment I have seen on this site.

[SnowLabrador]

So just when COVID is possibly in retreat, we get World War III. I suppose it's no surprise, since 2022 is pronounced "2020 too."

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Oh do shut up. Things could get very serious - a full scale war with modern weaponry and explosives would be significantly nastier than a lot of people realise - but there's no prospect of that. NATO will not intervene military, neither will the United States alone. Everyone involved has been extremely clear about this.