It seems to be "confirmed" that Russia will fully invade Ukraine next week

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I think it's a good thing that the Biden administration and NATO are getting out ahead of Putin's preferred narrative. It's preventing his chosen talking points from dominating the news and then trying to push back against it. I don't know how long it can keep working,

How do you know it's working? Per Ukraine it's working in that sense that it's hurting their economy.

but I don't know how long Putin can keep a large majority of his country's military on Ukraine's borders, either.

Majority? 15% is not majority.

I do think its better than the hesitant uncertainty of Obama, or the degenerate servility of Trump, regarding Putin's Russian government.

Name at least 1 (one) thing that Trump served to Putin. Mean tweets doesn't count 

Example: NS2 is what Biden served to Putin, oh, sorry, my bad , I mean served to Germany.

Well there was that time where he sided with Putin over his own intelligence agencies.

When I said "thing", I, of course, meant thing of *value*. Mean tweets doesn't count was a hint. As I said earlier, Putin doesn't give a sh*t about words.

[Person Man]

It has already started, my pro-Russian sources have told me worrying things. Stay tuned tonight.

Lol. Fake news.

Spreading rumors is part of the intelligence activity.

[Pres Mike]

Looks like the invasion could start in the next 24 hours. Russian separatists have ordered an evacuation to Russia. Shelling has gotten more intense

[President Johnson]

Looks like the invasion could start in the next 24 hours. Russian separatists have ordered an evacuation to Russia. Shelling has gotten more intense

Or Putin is bluffing and thinks he can make Biden look stupid if an invasion doesn't happen ("see, Biden and Americans are always lying about my motives").

[Dereich]

Looks like the invasion could start in the next 24 hours. Russian separatists have ordered an evacuation to Russia. Shelling has gotten more intense

Or Putin is bluffing and thinks he can make Biden look stupid if an invasion doesn't happen ("see, Biden and Americans are always lying about my motives").

Which gains what for him?

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

Russia isn't invading Ukraine they are putting pressure on NATO not to admit Ukraine and Ukraine should declare it's Neutrality, Nordstrom 2 won't be happening if Putin invades

Based Olawakandi???

>implying he wasn't already based to begin with

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/ZekeJMiller/status/1494761615476109319?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Biden keeps "predicting" this to bluff the Russians, Putin doesn't want to prove the US right. Stace it off long enough and Russia will have to go through the mud.

[President Johnson]

Looks like the invasion could start in the next 24 hours. Russian separatists have ordered an evacuation to Russia. Shelling has gotten more intense

Or Putin is bluffing and thinks he can make Biden look stupid if an invasion doesn't happen ("see, Biden and Americans are always lying about my motives").

Which gains what for him?

A propaganda victory and dividing Western allies up. An invasion would at least have to go beyond the two eastern territories which are already under Russian control.

I'm not saying the invasion will not happen, just that this could be a bluff. I'm not even sure Putin has finally decided what to do and still weighing his options.

[emailking]

Biden just said in his press conference that he believes Putin has made the decision to invade.

[Hermit For Peace]

Biden just said in his press conference that he believes Putin has made the decision to invade.

I'm talking about Putin here: stupid is as stupid does.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Biden just said in his press conference that he believes Putin has made the decision to invade.

He said, too, that Russia is going to take Kiev...

We have reason to believe Russian forces intend to attack Ukraine in the coming days. We believe they intend to attack Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Looks like the invasion could start in the next 24 hours. Russian separatists have ordered an evacuation to Russia. Shelling has gotten more intense

Or Putin is bluffing and thinks he can make Biden look stupid if an invasion doesn't happen ("see, Biden and Americans are always lying about my motives").

Which gains what for him?

He basically implies that Putin won't attack to own/troll Biden, which is ridiculous - Putin is not 3 years old. IDK if Putin invades or not, but his decision won't have anything to do with "make Biden look stupid" dough.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Looks like the invasion could start in the next 24 hours. Russian separatists have ordered an evacuation to Russia. Shelling has gotten more intense

Or Putin is bluffing and thinks he can make Biden look stupid if an invasion doesn't happen ("see, Biden and Americans are always lying about my motives").

Which gains what for him?

A propaganda victory and dividing Western allies up. An invasion would at least have to go beyond the two eastern territories which are already under Russian control.

I'm not saying the invasion will not happen, just that this could be a bluff. I'm not even sure Putin has finally decided what to do and still weighing his options.

I'm thinking whatever Putin's government's exact plans are, they're more complex than "just invade" or "bluff". (I really thought it was "just invade and get it done", but obviously I was wrong and that did not happen, yet.) The escalation we're seeing has been steady - demands, vehicle movements, supporting equipment moved into place, troops assembled and moved, cyberattacks, pro-intervention domestic propaganda the whole time, fake withdrawals, forces moved into ready positions, escalation of violence in the occupied portion of Ukraine and along the line of contact, more propaganda. I don't think this pattern will stop once tanks start moving and (more) weapons start firing. The eventual attack may very well not come all at once.

Push out Donetsk and Luhansk to their claimed borders (including Mariupol).
Blockade Ukrainian ports.
Sabotage, assassinations, fake uprisings, cyberattacks.
Air and missile strikes, maybe just a few, maybe in waves to hit key economic or air defense targets.
An amphibious assault, or the threat of one.
Advancing into eastern or northern Ukraine.
Attempting to seize Kharkiv, through fake insurrection or an outright attack.
Threatening Kyiv, with airstrikes or armies in the field. 

This could all be tried in one massive knock-out punch. (That's mostly how the US invaded Iraq, just with a wave of airstrikes first.) But if Putin's administration does it one escalation at a time, they'll have more chances to panic or bully Ukraine's people and government, more opportunities to drive wedges into NATO, more time for the world to get tired of "Russian forces escalated a little more in Ukraine today, maybe".

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1494686914561064962

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1494686914561064962

So if they invade, it’s gonna be an outright conquest.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1494686914561064962

Steele dossier energy here, same as with capture of Kiev. Biden would be imo better off, if they only pushed credible intel. Things like these make me seriously consider they do it in order to put pressure on Ukraine to make concessions. Otherwise, I don't understand why would they "leak" it 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/HKrassenstein/status/1494846683154456580

[BlueSwan]

I'm willing to bet $50, on 2:1 odds (e.g. if you win I'll give you $100), that Russia will not invade Ukraine before the spring melt. Is anyone willing to take me on that bet?

Awful take. Did anybody take you up on that bet?

[Cassandra]

I'm willing to bet $50, on 2:1 odds (e.g. if you win I'll give you $100), that Russia will not invade Ukraine before the spring melt. Is anyone willing to take me on that bet?

Awful take. Did anybody take you up on that bet?

Nope, no takers. And yes, I was very wrong and have no issue admitting it.