Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Red Velvet]

https://thehill.com/policy/4106234-51-percent-disapprove-of-biden-decision-to-send-cluster-bombs-to-ukraine-poll/

"51 percent disapprove of Biden decision to send cluster bombs to Ukraine: poll"

Approval/disapproval of sending cluster bombs to Ukraine is 39/51

Good thing we don't put foreign policy up for a popular referendum.

Well, elections ARE a popular referendum though! And it’s interesting to notice that if Biden elevates his warhawk approach to something more dangerous (like sending cluster weapons instead of conventional weapons) then the Ukraine War starts having less of Neutral effect on his popularity and more of a Negative effect.

It also allows Trump to play the peacemaker dovish role if he wants as a strategy, attacking Biden from the left and confusing people like he sometimes did in 2016 with Hillary. ~Liberals call us dangerous and fascists but they are the ones who get involved in another horrible war while sending banned weapons that aren’t approved by human rights groups. Something that only risks murdering innocent civilians. I would never do that, I would sit with both Putin and Zelenskyy and make them both make a negotiation in the exact same day so that the war ends~

[CumbrianLefty]

I wonder what the poll results would be if the public were informed that Russia was the first to use them and has been using cluster bombs on Ukraine, and that those bearing the risk of unexploded ordinance are the Ukrainian civilians, not Russian ones.

I think it will still be a proxy of Biden's approval rating like any generic presidential policy.

They really should also remove Biden’s name from the question and see what that does.

And maybe also add that Russia has already used them in this conflict.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1679810995361816577

Could be a pretty big deal. Taiwan has a lot of Hawk batteries they are decommissioning and the relative abundance of missiles for this system would let Ukraine more cheaply shoot down Russian drones, as well as move up more mobile short range air defenses to the front while the Hawks cover cities and towns.

The Taiwanese government is denying this. They claim the Hawks are too sensitive and will be decommissioned.

The EU’s $22bn plan is stalling again, because Hungary says they’ll oppose it until one of their banks is moved from Ukraine’s war sponsors list. Politico’s EU sources, for whatever they’re worth, are apparently hoping to wrap things up “by October” and are optimistic on shifting Hungary’s position.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1682338191850848258?s=20
Hahahahahahahahaha

It couldn't have happened to a nicer guy:

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1682394039868440576?s=20

[Storr]

Grandpa going on another unhinged conspiratorial rant:

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1682380069145042945?s=20

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1682338309106802690?s=20

[Lord Halifax]

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1679810995361816577

Could be a pretty big deal. Taiwan has a lot of Hawk batteries they are decommissioning and the relative abundance of missiles for this system would let Ukraine more cheaply shoot down Russian drones, as well as move up more mobile short range air defenses to the front while the Hawks cover cities and towns.

The Taiwanese government is denying this. They claim the Hawks are too sensitive and will be decommissioned.

The EU’s $22bn plan is stalling again, because Hungary says they’ll oppose it until one of their banks is moved from Ukraine’s war sponsors list. Politico’s EU sources, for whatever they’re worth, are apparently hoping to wrap things up “by October” and are optimistic on shifting Hungary’s position.

What does "too sensitive" mean in this context? It's not cutting edge technology.

[Storr]

Also lol at The Guardian calling Girkin a "Putin critic" not a convicted war criminal:

https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/1682413013490335745?s=20

https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/1682415669613133824?s=20

[PSOL]

I am pleasantly impressed that this war at least accomplishes the denazification of Russia. The warhawks, nationalists, and Neonazi elements that have gained traction ever since EuroMaidan in Russia are all but eliminated among the influencers of the Russian federation and pro-Ukrainian Nazis like Tesak are getting pummeled as well and exposed as traitors.

[Storr]

New York Times moment:

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1682445380179357698?s=20

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA LMAO REDVELVET GET WRECKED

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1682415387609014272

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

I am pleasantly impressed that this war at least accomplishes the denazification of Russia. The warhawks, nationalists, and Neonazi elements that have gained traction ever since EuroMaidan in Russia are all but eliminated among the influencers of the Russian federation and pro-Ukrainian Nazis like Tesak are getting pummeled as well and exposed as traitors.

So that's why the cops killed Tesak right in prison: for his pro-Ukrainian views. I still could not understand what the reason was, because the views of this neo-Nazi differed from what is broadcast on Russian TV only in that he lynched pedophiles.

Thanks for the inside information.

[NOVA Green]

Apparently Wagner did not have to give up all of their heavy equipment in Russia / Ukraine.

Maybe not that many Wagner troops decided to take the "Russian Military Contract"

Radar imagery collected Friday appears to show newly arrived vehicles and equipment at a rumored Wagner base in the village of Tsel in Belarus. The images, provided to The Washington Post by Maxar Technologies and Umbra, show “dozens, if not hundreds, of vehicles and equipment have recently arrived at the facility,” according to Stephen Wood, senior director at Maxar. Friday’s images show an increase in material compared to previous imagery gathered on July 16.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/07/21/russia-ukraine-war-news/

[NOVA Green]

WaPo also has not called out Girkin, despite the fact he has been issued a life sentence and an international arrest warrant by the Dutch Courts for his involvement in the shooting down of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 on 06.17.14 over Ukraine.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Igor_Girkin

Russian authorities detained Igor Girkin, a former Russian commander in Ukraine and prominent war blogger, on Friday. The charge — reportedly “public calls for extremist activities” online — likely stems from Girkin’s loud criticism of Russian leaders and their military strategy, and comes despite his otherwise-fervent support of the war in Ukraine.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/07/21/russia-ukraine-war-news/

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile in Girkin drama land... looks like Russian power politics and purges are even more advanced than previous reported.

ISW dumps a load (No Paywall required)

Tons more there but it appears that there is a massive power struggle going on within Russia at the present time, considering arrests of FSB officers to boot...

The Russian Investigative Committee arrested Girkin on July 21, and Girkin will be held until September 18 on extremism changes.[1] Girkin’s wife, Miroslava Reginskaya, reported that representatives from the Russian Investigative Committee detained Girkin at his home in Moscow, and noted later that the Moscow’s Meshansky Court arrested Girkin and that he will be held until September 18 on extremism charges.[2] Girkin unsuccessfully attempted to argue in the court that he is not a high flight risk due to his sentence at the Hague Tribunal, but the court cited Girkin’s notoriety and “connections in law enforcement” as the reasons for his immediate incarceration.[3] Girkin’s lawyer, Alexander Molokhov, argued that Russian law enforcement is prosecuting Girkin for his May 25, 2023 Telegram posts, which reportedly discussed the lack of payments to servicemen of the 105thand 107th airborne (VDV) regiments.[4] Court documents, however, indicate that Russian authorities opened a case against Girkin on July 18 - the day on which Girkin published several harsh critiques of Russian President Vladimir Putin.[5] Girkin had been consistently criticizing Putin prior to July 18, however, but his past criticisms had not triggered an arrest.[6] Members of the Girkin-led “Angry Patriots Club” gathered for a small protest outside of the court demanding Girkin’s release.[7] Some sources claimed that Girkin’s arrest followed his conflict with a fellow Angry Patriots Club member about the Wagner Group.[8] Other sources speculated that Wagner complaints about Girkin may have triggered his arrest.[9] One source claimed that the arrest is related to Russian authorities targeting Russian “patriots” deemed disloyal to Putin.[10]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-21-2023

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Apparently Wagner did not have to give up all of their heavy equipment in Russia / Ukraine.

Maybe not that many Wagner troops decided to take the "Russian Military Contract"

Radar imagery collected Friday appears to show newly arrived vehicles and equipment at a rumored Wagner base in the village of Tsel in Belarus. The images, provided to The Washington Post by Maxar Technologies and Umbra, show “dozens, if not hundreds, of vehicles and equipment have recently arrived at the facility,” according to Stephen Wood, senior director at Maxar. Friday’s images show an increase in material compared to previous imagery gathered on July 16.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/07/21/russia-ukraine-war-news/

This link is inaccurate. Also, I don't have a subscription, so I can't read the article anyway. I found a free detailed article in Russian on a Ukrainian media, here is the most interesting snippet (machine translate):

Almost half a thousand pieces of equipment: what was recorded by the satellite in the Belarusian camp of PMC "Wagner"

It means:

• about 45 buses of various modifications,
• about 55 tent trucks, some of them with trailers,
• about 65 trucks of various modifications, in particular, at least 8 platforms with mainly construction equipment,
• about 320 vehicles similar in size to UAZ, vans, UAZ minibuses, Gazelle type minibuses, cars.

However, it should be noted that among all this equipment, journalists did not find heavy military equipment.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1682537150758244354?s=20

[Storr]

New York Times moment:

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1682445380179357698?s=20

Bruh...

First paragraph of the rest of the tweet sums it up:

"Ivan denies russia invaded Ukraine in 2014, promotes Kremlin narratives about a Ukrainian civil war that is the West’s fault, advocates that the West accept Crimea as russia, ‘expertly’ explained in 2015 that russia had no interest in Ukraine [beyond Crimea], ‘expertly’ dismissed the build up to the full scale war in early 2022 as a “reality show”, and very frequently retweets other prominent russian chauvinists with dodgy Kremlin connections and equally awful analysis about russia over the past decade. His timeline is exactly what you’d expect:
@INechepurenko"

https://twitter.com/BadBalticTakes/status/1682737280249675776?s=20

[Storr]

Karma:

https://twitter.com/leonidragozin/status/1682733147019005953?s=20

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1682786801650417665?s=20

[NOVA Green]

Note to self: Standing by MLARS is not a good idea if you are a Russian Milblogger..

One might assume the Russian MLARS did not fare so well either.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1682734897083940865?s=20

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1682736327832358913?s=20

[NOVA Green]

Speaking of arms smuggling from Black Sea ports...


https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1682291425222770689?s=20

[Person Man]

Karma:

https://twitter.com/leonidragozin/status/1682733147019005953?s=20

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1682786801650417665?s=20

A bitch died like a bitch. Bravo!

[Woody]

Seeing as the counteroffensive has more or less failed, what happens next?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

New York Times moment:

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1682445380179357698?s=20

Stalin would be a critic of Putin's war effort, too.

[NOVA Green]

Seeing as the counteroffensive has more or less failed, what happens next?

Which one(s)?

Please discuss with maps and cite sources as per standard Atlas norms.

[Woody]

Seeing as the counteroffensive has more or less failed, what happens next?

Which one(s)?

Please discuss with maps and cite sources as per standard Atlas norms.

The one in the South. They retook only 9 villages during it's entire 2 month course. And has been a standstill for weeks.

https://deepstatemap.live/
https://map.ukrdailyupdate.com/
https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll