Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It might make sense to spin off discussion about the Putsch into a separate thread?

[Red Velvet]

Agreed:

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672528633372581888?s=20

We honestly have little idea of Wagner's intentions. Prigozhin may be an ultranationalist but there are ultranationalists who are now war-sceptic and he seems to be one of them : he and many others now see the problem with Russia to be less NATO expansion and foreign adventuring being blocked, but more the white collar FSB elites in Moscow.

Do we? It’s basically Russian right-wing populists and neonazis becoming anti-war and revolting against their government more liberal pro-war establishment led by Putin. They dislike the government because they see it as weak, not bad.

They never bought the war propaganda the government was selling but they still joined because well, they’re ultranationalists and mercenaries. But a year of war on the ground wearing down war-support combined with their leadership having their own political ambitions clearly change this.

Wagner being the new government of Russia would be the equivalent of Trump establishing a dictatorship under his name in the US. Considering these are the two places that can destroy the world with the pressing of a button, it’s not good idea for crazies to successfully implement their coup.

[windjammer]

It might make sense to spin off discussion about the Putsch into a separate thread?

I disagree, I think this conflict is entering into a new phase : russian civil war

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It might make sense to spin off discussion about the Putsch into a separate thread?

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=555731.msg9113431#msg9113431
For those who might want to use it, here is a dedicated thread.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1672462289427918848
no clue what they're saying but this is Prigozhin

In general, Prigozhin in this video demands to give him the chief of the general staff, declares that he will occupy Rostov-on-Don and intends to attack Moscow. He accuses the military leaders of the shell hunger and that they are pushing the soldiers to the slaughter. He also uses verbal tricks to psychologically subdue the military who are talking to him here.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/iaponomarenko/status/1672582269565906944?s=12

[CumbrianLefty]

https://twitter.com/AstonishingFMan/status/1672506882164944896?s=20

There are now multiple reports that part of Bakhmut has been retaken by Ukrainian forces.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1672580839484407811

[CumbrianLefty]

Well the lyrics in my sig could really have been written for this sort of moment.

[oldtimer]

I have to abandon my pre-election silence to comment on this.

Remember what I told you many times ?

Treat the enemy population more humanely than their current masters and they will defect to you.

The key to win this war for Ukraine was always convincing the russian population that they will be treated better with another Leader, preferably Zelensky, not threats to exterminate all of russia.

Now Prigozin is marching without much resistance.

It could have been the Ukranian army, but they never made more than a token effort, and certainly not with a credible political platform.

[Ricardian1485]

Why weren't the Russians more prepared for this?

Prigozhin's rhetoric had been getting increasingly vitriolic, violent, and accusatory. His videos where he angrily ranted about the fat elites sending Russians to die were clearly part of an effort to paint himself as a populist savoir. Earlier this month Prigozhin even accused the MOD of planting mines on Wagner's withdrawal route from Bakhmut.

I know they were putting up with a lot of Prigozhin's talk because of the strategic value of his PMC. But all of Prigozhin's actions pointed towards some sort of grand scheme, and people have been talking for months now about the potential of a Wagner mutiny, so why didn't Russia do more to prepare for that potential calamity?

[CumbrianLefty]

Why weren't the Russians more prepared for this?

Prigozhin's rhetoric had been getting increasingly vitriolic, violent, and accusatory. His videos where he angrily ranted about the fat elites sending Russians to die were clearly part of an effort to paint himself as a populist savoir. Earlier this month Prigozhin even accused the MOD of planting mines on Wagner's withdrawal route from Bakhmut.

I know they were putting up with a lot of Prigozhin's talk because of the strategic value of his PMC. But all of Prigozhin's actions pointed towards some sort of grand scheme, and people have been talking for months now about the potential of a Wagner mutiny, so why didn't Russia do more to prepare for that potential calamity?

Obvious answer - Putin long surrounded by sycophants who can't tell him even potential bad news?

[oldtimer]

https://twitter.com/AstonishingFMan/status/1672506882164944896?s=20

There are now multiple reports that part of Bakhmut has been retaken by Ukrainian forces.

They should not make a move at all.

Any military move from outside of Russia would only stregthen Putin at the most critical moment when he might fall.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/faytuks/status/1672583232401944578?s=12

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/AstonishingFMan/status/1672506882164944896?s=20

There are now multiple reports that part of Bakhmut has been retaken by Ukrainian forces.

They should not make a move at all.

Any military move from outside of Russia would only stregthen Putin at the most critical moment when he might fall.

You are probably right. This is assuming Ukraine actually prefers Prigozhin to Putin, of course (not a given).

[Lord Halifax]

https://twitter.com/AstonishingFMan/status/1672506882164944896?s=20

There are now multiple reports that part of Bakhmut has been retaken by Ukrainian forces.

They should not make a move at all.

Any military move from outside of Russia would only stregthen Putin at the most critical moment when he might fall.

Putin being ousted is not necessarily going to end the war, it may lead to hardliners taking over, so Ukraine should obviously seize the opportunity and take back as much territory as possible.

[oldtimer]

Why weren't the Russians more prepared for this?

Prigozhin's rhetoric had been getting increasingly vitriolic, violent, and accusatory. His videos where he angrily ranted about the fat elites sending Russians to die were clearly part of an effort to paint himself as a populist savoir. Earlier this month Prigozhin even accused the MOD of planting mines on Wagner's withdrawal route from Bakhmut.

I know they were putting up with a lot of Prigozhin's talk because of the strategic value of his PMC. But all of Prigozhin's actions pointed towards some sort of grand scheme, and people have been talking for months now about the potential of a Wagner mutiny, so why didn't Russia do more to prepare for that potential calamity?

Obvious answer - Putin long surrounded by sycophants who can't tell him even potential bad news?

Dictator's disease.

[Epaminondas]

https://twitter.com/AstonishingFMan/status/1672506882164944896?s=20

There are now multiple reports that part of Bakhmut has been retaken by Ukrainian forces.

They should not make a move at all.

Any military move from outside of Russia would only stregthen Putin at the most critical moment when he might fall.

Terrible advice, as usual.
If the Ukrainians advance, it reinforces Prigozhin's platform that the RAF are run by incompetent generals and that he Russia's providential man.

If the events dislocate the front and Ukrainians don't advance, how will that benefit them in a week when the situation in Moscow is stabilised one way or another? It doesn't, unless you truly believe that a war fanatic such as Prigozhin would order a general retreat.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

https://twitter.com/Heroiam_Slava/status/1672586075208810497

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1672572459076206592

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1672589413694537730

[LAKISYLVANIA]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1672590500254081024

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1672586075485741057

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1672577452357427200

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1672587576690065414

[Epaminondas]

A take from a Kazakh friend: he believes that it is all a false flag operation in order to invite Tokayev to send the whole Kazakh army into the country as government support, only to then send them to the Ukrainian front.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

This eve, the battle of Moscow might start, it's a 4 hour drive.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/AstonishingFMan/status/1672506882164944896?s=20

There are now multiple reports that part of Bakhmut has been retaken by Ukrainian forces.

They should not make a move at all.

Any military move from outside of Russia would only stregthen Putin at the most critical moment when he might fall.

Terrible advice, as usual.
If the Ukrainians advance, it reinforces Prigozhin's platform that the RAF are run by incompetent generals and that he Russia's providential man.

If the events dislocate the front and Ukrainians don't advance, how will that benefit them in a week when the situation in Moscow is stabilised one way or another? It doesn't, unless you truly believe that a war fanatic such as Prigozhin would order a general retreat.

The front hasn’t changed yet though, Ukraine will need to wait a few more days to see where Russia moves resources from to deal with this before making its move

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

A take from a Kazakh friend: he believes that it is all a false flag operation in order to invite Tokayev to send the whole Kazakh army into the country as government support, only to then send them to the Ukrainian front.

Not sure I could believe this is completely haybrained of an idea anymore, given how crazy the past 24 hours have been.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/AstonishingFMan/status/1672506882164944896?s=20

There are now multiple reports that part of Bakhmut has been retaken by Ukrainian forces.

They should not make a move at all.

Any military move from outside of Russia would only stregthen Putin at the most critical moment when he might fall.

Terrible advice, as usual.
If the Ukrainians advance, it reinforces Prigozhin's platform that the RAF are run by incompetent generals and that he Russia's providential man.

If the events dislocate the front and Ukrainians don't advance, how will that benefit them in a week when the situation in Moscow is stabilised one way or another? It doesn't, unless you truly believe that a war fanatic such as Prigozhin would order a general retreat.

The front hasn’t changed yet though, Ukraine will need to wait a few more days to see where Russia moves resources from to deal with this before making its move

That sounds wise. It would make sense if they moved only cautiously until they knew what they were getting into.