Afghan government collapse.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The Taliban kind of caught up with me at work today. First of all, I've got an e-mail from Afghanistan from three ex-employees of the German international development aid agency GIZ. Given the amount and specificity of personal information contained in the mail it appeared authentic. So I forwarded to a contact in the Bundestag who then forwarded it to a contact in the foreign ministry. In the end it may do jacksh**t, but I guess this was my good deed for the day.

Secondly, I've got a small mass mailing consisting of about fifteen messages from Afghans living in Germany who still had relatives back in the home country. I send them an e-mail adress for the crisis reaction center of the German foreign ministry. In addition I had been advised to also send the number for a corresponding hotline of the foreign ministry of India. Given the sh**tshow Heiko Maas is running down at Werderscher Markt someone must have thought that it is good to provide some redundancies here.

[President Johnson]

Announcements from the Taliban have been kinda weird. If they actually ruled relatively moderate, at least compared to expectations, it would be hilarious.

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1427660276938182656

[thumb21]

Amrullah Saleh (now based in Panjshir) proclaimed himself President, arguing that Ghani had vacated the presidency by fleeing. That means there are 3 people who claim to be in charge of Afghanistan, although I don't see many people taking Ghani very seriously at this point.

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/17/taliban-pledged-safe-passage-of-civilians-to-kabul-airport-white-house-says.html

Newly empowered Taliban militants have informed the U.S. that they are prepared to provide safe passage for civilians attempting to flee Afghanistan through Kabul’s international airport, the White House said Tuesday.

“We intend to hold them to that commitment,” national security advisor Jake Sullivan told reporters amid a barrage of questions about the Biden administration’s handling of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, which was plunged into chaos as the Islamist insurgents quickly ousted its Western-backed government.

Sullivan also said the “chaotic” situation in the Afghan capital makes it premature to speculate about whether the Taliban could form a government the U.S. would recognize.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/17/taliban-pledged-safe-passage-of-civilians-to-kabul-airport-white-house-says.html

Newly empowered Taliban militants have informed the U.S. that they are prepared to provide safe passage for civilians attempting to flee Afghanistan through Kabul’s international airport, the White House said Tuesday.

“We intend to hold them to that commitment,” national security advisor Jake Sullivan told reporters amid a barrage of questions about the Biden administration’s handling of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, which was plunged into chaos as the Islamist insurgents quickly ousted its Western-backed government.

Sullivan also said the “chaotic” situation in the Afghan capital makes it premature to speculate about whether the Taliban could form a government the U.S. would recognize.

Nothing would make me happier, but I believe it when I see it. At the moment the Taliban have still cordoned off the airport. They're only letting foreigners in, while sending away all Afghan nationals who want to enter it. And so far I have a hard time imagining the Taliban letting an umlimited number of people freely travel from, let's say, Kandahar to Kabul so that they can use the airport there. To quote a German MP who just happened to be on TV: "Even if they agree to this, we'll be relying on the goodwill of the Taliban then."

[Silent Hunter]

Amrullah Saleh (now based in Panjshir) proclaimed himself President, arguing that Ghani had vacated the presidency by fleeing. That means there are 3 people who claim to be in charge of Afghanistan, although I don't see many people taking Ghani very seriously at this point.

Saleh can wait. The Taliban, if they're not careful, is going to end up being the Central Asian equivalent of Theresa May. Trying to please everyone, not committing firmly in one direction or the other, then getting ousted by someone more decisive with a worse hairdo. I dread to think what the Taliban equivalent of BoJo is like.

[NOVA Green]

Amrullah Saleh (now based in Panjshir) proclaimed himself President, arguing that Ghani had vacated the presidency by fleeing. That means there are 3 people who claim to be in charge of Afghanistan, although I don't see many people taking Ghani very seriously at this point.

Yeah at least Saleh had the courage to stay in his country, even if at this point he likely has the biggest cross-hairs on his back than any other person currently living on Afghan soil.

(Arguably even before this, he may well have been #1 on the Taliban and ISI's hit list and was targeted multiple times in recent years).

[NOVA Green]

As I had posited Yesterday, it appears that the US might be trying to use the leverage on the Afghani Gvt bank accounts to pressure the Taliban:

Code:

The Biden administration on Sunday froze Afghan government reserves held in U.S. bank accounts, blocking the Taliban from accessing billions of dollars held in U.S. institutions, according to two people familiar with the matter.

The decision was made by Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen and officials in the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control, the people said. The State Department was also involved in discussions over the weekend, with officials in the White House monitoring the developments. An administration official said in a statement, “Any Central Bank assets the Afghan government have in the United States will not be made available to the Taliban.” The officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss government policy not yet made public....

Asked Tuesday what leverage the United States would have over the Taliban going forward, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said that “there are obviously issues related to sanctions” but declined to elaborate. He also said the administration would first communicate directly with the Taliban...

The Afghanistan central bank held $9.4 billion in reserve assets as of April, according to the International Monetary Fund. That amounts to roughly one-third of the country’s annual economic output. The vast majority of those reserves are not currently held in Afghanistan, one of the people familiar with the matter said. Among those, billions of dollars are kept in the United States, although the precise amount is unclear.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2021/08/17/treasury-taliban-money-afghanistan/

[Geoffrey Howe]

Macron says EU setting up initiative to thwart arrival of Afghan refugees

French president Emmanuel Macron said the European Union would be setting up an initiative to thwart the expected arrivals of refugees from Afghanistan after the Taliban takeover.

“We must anticipate and protect ourselves against significant irregular migratory flows that would endanger the migrants and risk encouraging trafficking of all kinds,” he said in a televised statement.

He said the response from France, Germany and other EU countries would be “robust, coordinated and united” and would target smuggling rings.

If the EU doesn't want Afghan refugees there, then they're welcome to deploy their own forces to Afghanistan to repel the Taliban and prop up Ghani's government indefinitely.

If you read his comment, it's entirely ambiguous. In a part you left out, he says that there is a duty to protect those most in need. He says that we need to protect ourselves from specifically "irregular" migratory flows. I think it could mean anything in practice.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Announcements from the Taliban have been kinda weird. If they actually ruled relatively moderate, at least compared to expectations, it would be hilarious.

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1427660276938182656

Relying on them to back those words up with actions would be a brave move. Still, it's not entirely irrelevant that they'd care enough to lie about it.

Although there's also the issue that the Taliban is less of a unitary force this time round, because nobody has the authority of Mullah Omar. So it's quite possible we could see the Taliban in some areas acting in a comparatively moderate manner and in other areas repeating the 1990s but with additional thuggery.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1427734582762295299?s=19

[NOVA Green]

Regarding China's interest in Afghanistan now that the Taliban effectively control the physical territory of most of the population and land-mass of the country:

Code:

.....

The departure of the United States from Afghanistan also gives China an opportunity to step into a larger role, at a time when Beijing is seeking greater international sway. Chinese officials signaled their interest in Afghanistan’s future late last month, when Foreign Minister Wang Yi hosted senior Taliban officials in Tianjin.

At the meeting, Wang demanded that the Taliban sever ties with the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), a separatist group that Beijing has blamed for attacks in Xinjiang, even as he said the Taliban would play an important role in rebuilding Afghanistan.

“China has made it very clear,” said Victor Gao, a former Chinese Foreign Ministry official who is now a chair professor at Soochow University. “China will not allow Afghanistan to be used by any force as a threat to China.”....

Chinese officials worry about the prospect of Afghanistan becoming a haven for Islamist militant groups, including ETIM....

China may try to offer the Taliban economic aid or international recognition in exchange for its commitment to cut ties with ETIM — Wang, the foreign minister, made this request explicitly at a recent meeting — but whether it can trust the Taliban remains to be seen, experts say....

“It’s really dangerous for Taliban to fight against ETIM . . . because Taliban will lose legitimacy as a jihadist organization,” he said. Groups like ETIM are connected to a complex network of other Islamist militants across Central Asia, he added, and the Taliban risks infighting if it targets one or the other....

Gao, the former Foreign Ministry official, said China will be happy to deal with the Taliban if it does not lead to more radicalization in the region. But he said there was the possibility that the Taliban may return to its practices from two decades ago.

...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/afghanistan-china-xinjiang-taliban/2021/08/17/4f1fad12-fefe-11eb-87e0-7e07bd9ce270_story.html

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile, Iran has been walking a very fine line on the one hand striking a fairly conciliatory note:

Code:

The “defeat” of the United States in neighbouring Afghanistan should be transformed into an opportunity to “revive life, security and lasting peace” in the country, Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi says.

The new president told outgoing foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, in a phone call on Monday that Iran encourages all groups in Afghanistan to work towards national unity as a “neighbouring and brotherly” country, his website quoted him as saying...

A statement by the Iranian foreign ministry said Zarif emphasised the necessity for preventing more violence and war. He also referred to the displacement of Afghan citizens and their taking refuge in neighbouring countries as one of the most important and urgent aspects of developments in Afghanistan.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/16/raisi-us-defeat-in-afghanistan-should-become-chance-for-peace

Meanwhile Indian and Iranian relations have developed closer with Afghanistan being a subject of conversation less than two weeks ago between the top leaders on 8/5/21

Code:

.... Raisi went on to claim that “Tehran welcomes New Delhi’s role in establishment of security in Afghanistan.”

https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/29890/can-new-delhi-leverage-iran-india-relations-to-adapt-to-afghanistan-s-new-reality

Code:

Sometimes, the enemy of an enemy is an even greater enemy. For Iran, the humiliation of the U.S. in Afghanistan brings to the fore a fiercer foe. If the threat from the Taliban is not as existential to the Islamic Republic as the military presence of its most powerful adversary, the triumphant militia nonetheless poses a grave danger at an especially inconvenient moment. 

Although Iran has stepped up its diplomatic outreach to the Taliban, the government of incoming President Ebrahim Raisi, facing growing discontent at home amid fading hopes of quick economic relief from the West, must now reckon with renewed perils in the east. The Taliban may have no interest in bringing down the Iranian regime, but its ascendancy in the Afghan civil war is sure to send fresh waves of refugees flooding across the 900-kilometer (560-mile) border between the countries, accompanied by a spike in drug and human trafficking, as well as increased terrorist activity....

The Iranians and the Taliban managed to come to a modus vivendi, but relations remained hostile, and not only because of their competing sectarian world views: The mostly Sunni militiamen regard the Shiism of Iran as a heresy. When they ruled Kabul, the Taliban treated Afghanistan’s own Shiite minority with extreme brutality. They now claim to tolerate the sect, but terrorist groups that enjoy Taliban protection have stepped up attacks against Shiite targets. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-07-11/iran-knows-the-triumphant-taliban-in-afghanistan-will-not-be-good-neighbors

[lfromnj]

Anyone else see the 30 young men who all decided to die on a plane side?

[Alcibiades]

Per BBC News, the actual size of the ANA was a mere 50,000 men, not the 300,000 widely reported by Biden and others. When asked whether Biden was aware of this from US intelligence, a White House spokesperson declined to comment.

[NOVA Green]

Per BBC News, the actual size of the ANA was 50,000 men, not the 300,000 widely reported by Biden and others. When asked whether Biden was aware of this from US intelligence, a White House spokesperson declined to comment.

I am assuming that you are referencing the article posted 16:39 by Richard Watson on BBC Newnight referencing two sources?

...BBC Newsnight has been told that one of the main reasons behind the Afghan National Army's collapse is that the true size of its fighting force was just a fraction of the official figure.....

But two well-placed sources tell us the true number of troops was actually much lower - closer to 50,000....

An Afghani source with direct knowledge told Newsnight that in a meeting with former Foreign Minister Salahuddin Rabbani, newly appointed Defence Minister Bismillah Khan Mohammadi expressed alarm about the true figure of only 50,000 soldiers....

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-asia-58219963

Key caveats here is that this is only based upon two sources (One of whom was the newly appointed Afghan defense minister), and the other being a terrorism expert Dr Sajjan Gohel.

I am not saying this is implausible, let alone how the "Afghan Military Force" figures were calculated, although I suspect that if so likely the higher number included Afghan policemen, milita fighters and others who were likely not on the official payrolls.

It is also completely plausible that the culture of corruption was such (much like during the final couple years of the Vietnam War), where corrupt military and political leaders were "ghosting" the numbers to continue to pad their wallets and riches, and including dead fighters, wounded fighters, and those who deserted.

If anything close to true, this would be a massive failure of US Intelligence Agencies, including US Military Intelligence, not to mention that of our military and NATO allies within the region....

[sguberman]

So I don't want to push fake news but there are unconfirmed reports that the Panshjir resistance is already starting to push back against the Taliban does anyone have more information on that.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

So I don't want to push fake news but there are unconfirmed reports that the Panshjir resistance is already starting to push back against the Taliban does anyone have more information on that.

VP Saleh's forces recaptured Charikar from the Taliban.. that's all the information we have at the moment.

[sguberman]

So I don't want to push fake news but there are unconfirmed reports that the Panshjir resistance is already starting to push back against the Taliban does anyone have more information on that.

VP Saleh's forces recaptured Charikar from the Taliban.. that's all the information we have at the moment.

has it been confirmed all I see were reports that he had but no confirmation?

[NOVA Green]

So I don't want to push fake news but there are unconfirmed reports that the Panshjir resistance is already starting to push back against the Taliban does anyone have more information on that.

VP Saleh's forces recaptured Charikar from the Taliban.. that's all the information we have at the moment.

Source?

@sguberman Well at this point we really don't have much verifiable evidence thus far...

New Delhi, August 17

Panjshir Valley, the only district unconquered by the Taliban, has started to fly the flag of resistance all over again.

Code:

The First Vice President (FVP) of Afghanistan and a friend of India, Amrullah Saleh reached the Panjshir Valley and declared himself President. Citing the Constitution, he said in the event of escape, resignation or death of the President, the FVP becomes the caretaker President....

Ahmad Massoud and Defence Minister Bismillah Mohammadi have also promised to side with him. Ahmad is the son of the slain commander Ahmed Shah Masood during whose lifetime the Taliban could not conquer Panjshir Valley during its first spell in power from 1996 to 2001.

Sensing Panjshir as an oasis of relief from the Taliban, minority Shia Hazara families have reportedly walked 200 km to reach the Valley, famous for its emeralds, mulberries and indomitable fighters. Many of the Tajiks in the Afghan army have also arrived with their equipment, including armed personnel carriers and tanks, after withdrawing from the nearby frontlines....

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/world/panjshir-flies-flag-of-resistance-again-amrullah-says-he-is-president-of-afghanistan-298553

Now we have the guy AncestralDemocrat linked on Twitter, but quite frankly I'm a little bit skeptical, since he looks to perhaps be linked to the Turkish Government propaganda machine once you check out some of his other Twitter posts.

The dude is basically posting: "Tens of Thousands of Afghan soldiers under the leadership of General Dostum are now being sent to the region".


Wouldn't put too much truck based upon that dude's postings since it appears to be focused mainly on domestic Turkish political consumption (Considering Uzbeks are a Turkic based ethnic population within Central Asia).

Naturally everything is fast moving and fluid, and it is entirely plausible that a significant number of Hazaara's and Afghan Army Special Forces retreated to Panjshir, and are quite possibly hitting back, but not really sure we have much more than the fact that there is a domestic Guerrilla Anti-Taliban base focused on that region.

[NOVA Green]

So I don't want to push fake news but there are unconfirmed reports that the Panshjir resistance is already starting to push back against the Taliban does anyone have more information on that.

VP Saleh's forces recaptured Charikar from the Taliban.. that's all the information we have at the moment.

has it been confirmed all I see were reports that he had but no confirmation?

So to follow up on my previous post (and unfortunately most of our English and European posters are likely asleep at the moment), I decided to take a look at the source of this story in slightly greater detail.

1.) Ragıp Soylu lists in his Twitter handle that he is the Turkish Bureau Chief for "MiddleEastEye".

2.) Naturally the next question would be what is the media outfit MiddleEastEye?

    A.) Here is a link to the Wikipedia page:

       https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_East_Eye

    B.) In theory it generally appears like a somewhat credible media outlet, although it relies mostly
         upon freelancers to create their content.

3.) Actually looking at Ragıp Soylu's bio even on MiddleEastEye, it looks pretty credible in terms of his contributions to various international media outlets.

      A.) Then you see that he is major contributor to Daily Sabah

            i.) Propaganda outfit for the Turkish Government

               https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daily_Sabah

      B.) ATV:

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ATV_(Turkish_TV_channel)

      C.) Politics Today:

            Look at his article on "What is really behind the Iran Sanctions Case?"

“If cargo planes are carrying tons of gold, this cannot go unnoticed by customs officials or the state. We had clear evidence that the embargo imposed on Iran was infiltrated through this trade. We had informed both Halkbank and the Financial Crimes Investigation Board.”

This was how the operation that resulted in the request for a warrant issue to the former minister of economy Zafer Caglayan in the US started. This operation was not only used to interfere with the internal affairs of Turkey, but also as a means to defame Turkey internationally. So how did we come to this stage and what do these accusations in the case against the Turkish people by the US mean? To answer these questions, we have to go back a bit. According to the December 17 summary, the police probe based on “corruption” led by Gulenist criminal cult members at the time, started in 2012. Currently, it is not possible to determine whether FETO informed the US on the Zarrab case, or whether the US warned the police, who constantly gave briefings at the Ankara Embassy. But what we do know for sure is that the US was aware and very uncomfortable that Turkey paid Iran for the natural gas trade in gold.

          https://politicstoday.org/author/ragip-soylu/

Needless to say this guy is not a reliable source of dog crap in a park in Ankara or Istanbul, let alone developments in Afghanistan....

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Announcements from the Taliban have been kinda weird. If they actually ruled relatively moderate, at least compared to expectations, it would be hilarious.

The funny thing about women's education is that it's actually permitted in Islam, which is a reason why it was rather popular and the major success of development efforts in the last 20 years. So the Taliban might be "relatively moderate" and say allow segregated primary/secondary education for women in a circumscribed curriculum focused on religious study.

[compucomp]

I don't know whether these reports are reliable or not, but if VP Saleh is going to mount a credible last stand now that the odds are totally against him, then what was he doing last week? Why wasn't he trying to marshal the defense? Was Ghani the only person that could do anything?

[NOVA Green]

I don't know whether these reports are reliable or not, but if VP Saleh is going to mount a credible last stand now that the odds are totally against him, then what was he doing last week? Why wasn't he trying to marshal the defense? Was Ghani the only person that could do anything?

I would imagine last week he likely realized that the Taliban would take Kabul, and it would be better to help prepare for a guerrilla warfare campaign instead of getting sold out and traded to the Taliban / ISI considering that he likely had better sources of raw intelligence of the situation on the ground than just about anyone else.

I have been pondering this for more than a few days now of what it might take to successfully mount a sustained resistance under these circumstances:

1.) Typically a Guerilla Warfare Campaign does not necessarily require more than 10-15% of the population which support the movement.

In fact, if estimates are to be believed the Taliban only had roughly 15-20% support among the Afghan population prior to their "Victory" in Afghanistan.

2.) "Rear Base"--- If the Guerrilla movement are to be successful it will require "The guerrilla must move amongst the people as a fish swims in the sea." ( To loosely paraphrase Mao).

Here in this case the Panjshir Valley would potentially present such a location, considering not only what is likely an overwhelmingly Anti-Taliban local population, but also a key military strategic location which historically has made it difficult for opposing military forces to be able to conquer (Including the Soviet Military in the '80s).

3.) Weapons---

Generally speaking shortage of military weapons in Afghanistan is not a problem for any actors within the country, since the average number of guns per household likely makes any average American Gun-Hoarding Militia member jealous.

Additionally, it is entirely plausible that significant amount of heavy weapons and small arms were relocated from the Afghan National Army and "repossessed" within the past week, especially once it became clear that Kabul would fall regardless of the potential to fight to protect the City, which likely would have resulted in significant civilian casualties.

This would also likely include heavy vehicles such as Tanks and APC's not to mention even potentially heavy artillery units mounted on vehicles.

Obviously this would not include assets such as Airplanes and Helicopters (for the most part), but not quite sure how many Taliban members would even know what to do with these, even assuming they continue to have access to fuel....

4.) Supplies & Reinforcements---

This gets a bit trickier considering how the Taliban will likely be shifting resources towards areas where they consider to still be in states of "active resistance" against their rule.

At some point one would imagine that the Taliban once they consider Kabul to be relatively secured to shift their formations directly towards Panjshir Province, in an attempt to isolate the Afghan resistance.

Perhaps most problematically for the Afghan Resistance, there isn't really any easy access to resupply routes, let alone airports, not to mention the fact that thus far there are not any international actors yet willing to back the resistance.

It is not an impossible task for the Panjshiri Resistance to obtain supplies of food and munitions over time, but since the Taliban Offensive was able to effectively take over most of Afghanistan relatively early on in the traditional Spring > Late Fall Military season, it might make it more difficult to potentially be able to bring in resources during the Winter Months, where traditionally it is easier to use traditional international and local smuggling routes over Mountain Passes with less risk.

5.) "X-Factors"

What we don't know is to what extent there might be existing contacts among various Tribes and Clans of various Ethnic Populations and potential coordination, including members of the former Afghan Security Forces who might have gone underground, but still maintain connections.

We don't know to what extent the Afghan Resistance might be able to use the same $$$ for soldiers to quickly fund resistance movements within many parts of Afghanistan historically not supportive of Taliban rule.

We don't know to what extent Pakistani Military Intelligence and the ISI have been supporting the Taliban troops on the ground and directly responsible for what appears to have been an extremely well coordinated Summer Offensive of 2021.

Obviously the Afghan Resistance will likely face an uphill struggle against a Professional Military which has been fully trained and supported by the US Military for decades....

6.) Insurgency as a "Wait and See Game"

Here is where the concept would be "Hold the Rear Base", foment and support discontent in the Cities and rural countryside, and essentially maintain a "symbolic guerrilla resistance", while meanwhile allowing the Taliban to collapse as people take to the streets in protest of food shortages, fuel shortages, lack of clean drinking water, etc....

Arguably this is most likely the route that the current Afghan resistance is pursuing, considering that at this point they are effectively alone without any International Allies, despite the Taliban having few friends even among their immediate neighbors....

[H. Ross Peron]

I hope that once the last plane is evacuated from Kabul that we de facto recognize the Panshjir enclave and ideally even enforce a 1990s Iraq type No Fly Zone around that area.