Afghan government collapse.

[NOVA Green]

Been a bit negligent here lately, but ISKP appears to still have a significant and active base in Nangarhar Province, with an extremely complex series of spectacular military actions against Taliban Forces in Jalalabad just a couple days back.

TB gonna have issues if ISKP can continue the same sustained level of activities they have in recent weeks, especially after having effectively been relatively dormant for the most part over the past 2 years....

ISKP at some point will likely attempt a mass casualty event, quite possibly targeting places of worship, residency, within a complex spectacular assault....

There are reasons TB is trying to protect Shiite places and Iran is already PO'd that they their TB voices have no major role in the new GVT, and ISKP would like nothing more than to stir the pot....

[Middle-aged Europe]

Taliban say they're gonna bring back executions and amputations, although as a concession they won't necessarily be held in public anymore:

https://www.npr.org/2021/09/24/1040339286/taliban-official-says-strict-punishment-and-executions-will-return

[Silent Hunter]

I voted "Worse," but that doesn't change the fact that the U.S. should have left after the killing of Osama bin Laden at the latest.  It's not our responsibility to stay there forever in order to make life as pleasant as possible for the Afghan people.  

Provided you are willing to provide Afghans who will desperately need help in the coming winter. This could easily end up another Cambodia.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well any mass humanitarian catastrophe of that nature would surely compel some intervention from neighbouring countries, but we are some way from that yet.

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/Natsecjeff/status/1441443500877172746?s=20

[NOVA Green]

Taliban say they're gonna bring back executions and amputations, although as a concession they won't necessarily be held in public anymore:

https://www.npr.org/2021/09/24/1040339286/taliban-official-says-strict-punishment-and-executions-will-return

Bit hypocritical for the US GVT to complain about the Death Penalty in AFGH (Regardless of GVT), considering we are one of the only advanced industrialized economies to still have the Death Penalty.

Not to mention that even many 2nd tier "Developing Nations" also ban the Death Penalty.

The CIA backed Afghan elite forces were guilty of many extra-judicial killings during Afghan Civil War 4.0 (2001-2021), so yeah not quite sure where the US is going with this one...

Even today in many states in the US it is still legal for relatives of the victims to be able to watch the execution of the prisoner, so how is that not in some way a "public execution"?

[NOVA Green]

Haven't been posting much here lately, but sometimes big stories are actually small collections of small stories like this one...

https://twitter.com/Natsecjeff/status/1442939521784369154?s=20

[PSOL]

So about that resistance…

https://twitter.com/theintercept/status/1440509647341834247?s=19

[CumbrianLefty]

And you are.......surprised?

[Silent Hunter]

Without foreign backing of some form, resistance movements rarely go anywhere. I don't see the current resistance leadership getting much foreign support; too associated with the old government, because many of them were it.

[NOVA Green]

So about that resistance…

https://twitter.com/theintercept/status/1440509647341834247?s=19

Basically although the TB are still continuing "mopping up" style of operations in Panjshir, this really is not anything close to an existential threat to Taliban rule.

The TB are clearly much more worried about the dramatic explosion of ISKP attacks against their forces, as well as potentially "spectacular" or massive civilian casualty events or targeted assassinations than they are against the remnants of the Resistance in Panjshir.

Here is Jeff an expert of terrorist formations within the regions which once again shows how ISIS is indirectly diverting resources into Afghanistan as they promote ISKP as "their second most effective branch"

https://twitter.com/Natsecjeff/status/1444423651760107521?s=20

[The Mikado]

Vietnam 2, electric boogaloo.

Not exactly; the North Vietnamese had tanks and aircraft.

Also "Not exactly," the South Vietnamese held out for about a year and a half after American withdrawal. Afghanistan will be 100% Taliban held by year end, and they never held 100% of Afghanistan in the 90s.

Well that remains to be seen, I can certainly see some groups in the country not submitting willingly.

Is this still "remains to be seen?" The areas of Afghanistan most hostile or dubious to the Taliban in the 90s are already under their control.

Feeling really, really good about this call back in August.

Not as good for the people of Afghanistan, of course.

[Silent Hunter]

Not likely to be much resistance in winter. Especially as many people are just focusing on not starving.