Afghan government collapse.

[NOVA Green]

We have our first official anti-Taliban insurgency already. That was quick!

https://twitter.com/Hamidhaideri/status/1426897336312160262

Well, Amrullah Saleh appears to have the biography and a good geographical location in which to attempt to wage guerrilla warfare against the Taliban.

https://www.afghan-web.com/biographies/biography-of-amrullah-saleh/

https://pbsinternational.org/programs/the-spy-who-quit/

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/28/world/asia/panjshir-afghanistan-taliban.html

https://time.com/5792389/taliban-peace-ballot-box/

[NOVA Green]

This was an amazing run the Taliban had in what is really a political victory.  What the Taliban seems to have done to a massive leveraged political buyout in a recursive process of bigger and bigger buyouts. What they seems to have done is to make deals with various tribal leaders for them to defect to Taliban.  Then they levered that into bigger deals with higher level government commanders by convincing them that the Taliban could win and they better be on the right side.  These defections in term really created the impression of an unstoppable Taliban which turn allowed for even bigger deals with even higher level military and political leaders (like governors and army corp commanders.)  All this then ended up with the unilateral surrender of Kabul.  This entire process did involve some fighting but they were minor compared to the scale of territories that changed hands to Taliban.   

This appears be an accurate reflection...

Here are a few MSM articles which explore this topic in greater detail:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/13/world/asia/afghanistan-rapid-military-collapse.html?action=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/08/15/afghanistan-military-collapse-taliban/

[NOVA Green]

https://www.the-sun.com/news/3479370/brit-stuck-kabul-afghanistan-holiday-worried-pals/

"IDIOT ABROAD Brit stuck in Kabul after going to Afghanistan on HOLIDAY tells worried pals ‘I’m in a bit of a pickle’"

It seems he googled “the most dangerous cities to visit” for his vacation plans.  I guess he got what he wanted.

Somehow The Dead Kennedys: "Holiday in Cambodia" song springs to mind as appropriate for this story:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qr6NOsluHYg

[NOVA Green]

This is so heartbreaking to me. Biden campaigned as a moderate but on this issue he tried to pander to the anti-war left too much and rushed America's withdrawal from Afghanistan. This is so embarrassing, an unmitigated disaster.

One thing is clear though, the Afghan "army" are some of the the most useless army ever.

Biden didnt end the war because of DSA and left wing podcasters calling him an imperialist murderer. Normie Democrats such as unionized schoolteachers and black church ladies oppose the war now or at the very least could care less.

Additionally, it must be stressed that this outcome was virtually inevitable since the US first became directly involved in combat activities (20) Years ago, and possibly with root causes that stretch back almost (40) years ago where the US was involved in military activities in Afghanistan as part of a proxy war against the Soviet Union.

That is part of the reason why I was one of about (300-500) demonstrators in a small down-state Oregon town, which spontaneously marched against the War in Afghanistan when the US first began military activities following 9/11.

Unfortunately, the US mission in Afghanistan (along with significant support from various NATO allies) post 9/11 was almost bound to fail because of not only strategic miscalculations, but perhaps more fundamentally the attempt to shoe-horn in a political model which had no real historical precedent within the Country.

I would argue that there might have been a brief window of opportunity between the 9/11 "invasion" / "intervention", "liberation" (Or whatever terms people might find most agreeable) but that was gone shortly after the Bush Jr. administration started to shift the vast mobilization of the US War Machine from Afghanistan to Iraq, and effectively traded what goodwill might have been built up, for a steadily decreasing security situation for the the Afghan population who were either hostile towards or generally opposed to the Taliban movement, while meanwhile the Taliban were able to reform their military positions within Afghanistan proper (as well as other formations such as the Haqqani network) from various "rear bases" both within Afghanistan, as well as neighboring regions within Pakistan.

More personal note:

When I lived in East Berlin back in early '94, my closest friend Farouk, who lived in the same Tenement Building in prenzlauer berg which I did was an Afghan refugee from Kabul with Tajik background, was an asylum seeker (Asylbewerber), who had fled the Civil War when Hekmatyar's forced were bombarding Kabul with heavy artillery.

Over almost daily games of chess, which would generally involve tea/coffee in the daytime and beer and "European Cigarettes" at Night in the plethora of underground establishments which proliferated during that time, we would share stories of our lives coming from two different countries, but both strangers and foreigners (Ausländer) in Germany.

He didn't talk much about his family, except to say that some of them had died during the Afghan Civil War, as well as resistance against the Soviet Occupation.

As a student a Kabul University with high grades, he was a natural candidate for German asylum seeker status so long as he maintained his University grades, etc....

Still, in order to make ends meet, like many of the rest of the Afghan diaspora in Berlin, he would work odd-jobs in the Construction Industry (off the books), in order to be able to send money home to his family members left behind.

I still remember his descriptions of how towards the final days of Soviet Occupation his description about how the Nightly final call to Prayer who bring out record numbers to the rooftops of the apartment complexes as a way of sending a final message to the Soviet Occupiers.

We lost touch not too long after I moved away from Germany, and I wonder what became of him.

Did the German authorities deport him back to Afghanistan, as they did so many others?

If so what happened to him after the Taliban took control in '96?

Anyways--- apologies for my personal segue, and I do wish all of the best for the normal Afghan Civilians who as in most war zones are effectively the ones which suffer the most, while meanwhile only a small minority of the population are active combatants on either side.

[NOVA Green]

800 people on one plane!

For context, a Boeing 747 seats about 600 and has about a 15% larger wingspan (not a perfect analogy, but it gives you an idea).

https://twitter.com/MilMonWorld/status/1427025918652977156

I think this audio recording is someone in the Air Force relaying the info:
https://m.soundcloud.com/metal57/rch-871

Is that real? Do we have any veracity that this is any way an official communication?

I believe the airplane number is identified in the video, but who the hell would be recording this, let along leaking it when it could potentially get into the hands of the "Baddies" in real time, where there still most be a few actionable SAMs floating around from the old dayz, although I believe there is a certain limited life-span when it comes to the Stinger Missiles we gave to the mujahideen back in the days, would have imagined they would no longer be viable max (30) years after we started to dump them in the hands of extremist factions against the former USSR.

[NOVA Green]

800 people on one plane!

For context, a Boeing 747 seats about 600 and has about a 15% larger wingspan (not a perfect analogy, but it gives you an idea).

https://twitter.com/MilMonWorld/status/1427025918652977156

I think this audio recording is someone in the Air Force relaying the info:
https://m.soundcloud.com/metal57/rch-871

Is that real? Do we have any veracity that this is any way an official communication?

I believe the airplane number is identified in the video, but who the hell would be recording this, let along leaking it when it could potentially get into the hands of the "Baddies" in real time, where there still most be a few actionable SAMs floating around from the old dayz, although I believe there is a certain limited life-span when it comes to the Stinger Missiles we gave to the mujahideen back in the days, would have imagined they would no longer be viable max (30) years after we started to dump them in the hands of extremist factions against the former USSR.

A Stinger is a portable SAMl launcher, useful only against helicopters or aircraft at low altitudes.

As for old equipment, age doesn't necessarily render a system completely useless.

The only F117 (stealth plane) ever shot down was taken down over Yugoslavia by 70s equipment, but it was an actual SAM installation (S125), not a portable launcher, and was manned by professional soldiers who figured out a good frequency for tracking stealth planes, not guerillas.

Don't believe I was talking about Stealth Planes, but rather a C-17 which obviously could be taken down very easily.

Not sure what you are disputing exactly, since even slightly less advanced weapon systems could easily take down choppers and aircraft at low elevations....

Multiple incidents in the Iraq War 2.0 where insurgents were able to take down US Military Aircraft, not to mention many similar incidents in Afghanistan under the Soviet Occupation and the subsequent American Occupation.

Techs that killed my friend in Iraq were exported to Afghanistan....

Don't think it's the right place to post it but the UK leaked certain military tech to the IRA, which ended up decades later in Afghanistan and Iraq, which accounted for a significant amount of IEDs both in SE Iraq during War 2.0, as well as in districts in SE Afghanistan with significant UK Military PRES.

Basically the concept is that you could use a laser beam and trigger a massive explosion, which tends to hit Armored Cars and convoys much more dramatically than Tanks...

One of my Son-In-Laws was stationed down at Camp Pendleton and scheduled to be deployed to Afghanistan back in November 2010, and he had a combo vaccination in order to be deployed, which although the records are not yet released included (19) different chemicals injected into his veins.

He was less than 1% of US Military Members who suffered an extremely dangerous incident, where he was in a coma for about a week, before we visited our daughter and son-in-law, and it wasn't until something like ten days later when he came out of his combo...

Not an Anti-Vaccer, Not an Anti-Military guy....

Not even going to delve into my friend who died in Iraq because of all the bulls**t, stop-loss, and general fuc*ed US Foreign Policy decisions from US Presidential Administrations going back decades ago.

[NOVA Green]

On a separate note there’s one province the Taliban haven’t taken: Panjshir. The birthplace, home, and resting place of the only truly decent Afghan warlord, Ahmad Shah Massoud. I’m sure the Taliban would love to desecrate Massoud’s tomb but that might be one bridge too far even for them.

Yes--- this is quite possibly where Amrullah Saleh is right now:

Twitter update from (3) hours ago appears to indicate this is the case, where some prior reports Yesterday were suggesting Tajikistan. Report indicates Massoud's son and other anti-Taliban commanders are also in Panjshir.



https://twitter.com/sudhirchaudhary/status/1427328094461849602

We have our first official anti-Taliban insurgency already. That was quick!

https://twitter.com/Hamidhaideri/status/1426897336312160262

Well, Amrullah Saleh appears to have the biography and a good geographical location in which to attempt to wage guerrilla warfare against the Taliban.

https://www.afghan-web.com/biographies/biography-of-amrullah-saleh/

https://pbsinternational.org/programs/the-spy-who-quit/

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/28/world/asia/panjshir-afghanistan-taliban.html

https://time.com/5792389/taliban-peace-ballot-box/

[NOVA Green]

Macron says EU setting up initiative to thwart arrival of Afghan refugees

French president Emmanuel Macron said the European Union would be setting up an initiative to thwart the expected arrivals of refugees from Afghanistan after the Taliban takeover.

“We must anticipate and protect ourselves against significant irregular migratory flows that would endanger the migrants and risk encouraging trafficking of all kinds,” he said in a televised statement.

He said the response from France, Germany and other EU countries would be “robust, coordinated and united” and would target smuggling rings.

There is something just, intensely morally despicable about this being his reaction. That his priority in a humanitarian crisis is how to stop them from coming over here. It’s just sick. I mean, I have pretty liberal opinions on asylum from the outset, but we as the west collectively have a huge moral failing here and a huge degree of moral responsibility to people who are actively suffering. We should be offering safety to absolutely every Afghan who asks for it, and of course we have the resources between us.

Apart from that, I have nothing to say beyond a sense of horror at what is going on, and can only echo what the likes of Al have said that reading a lot of what people on here have had to say about this makes me want to scream.

"2015 must not repeat itself" was probably the most commonly uttered phrase by CDU politicians in Germany today. Well, that and hanging the blame for the debacle around the neck of foreign minister Heiko Maas (SPD).

Meanwhile in Afghanistan... the first German military transport plane was finally able to land in Kabul. It deployed a unit of paratroopers to further secure the airport and is now on its way back to a base in Uzbekistan with the first batch of evacuees.

Good to hear.

How's this all playing in Germany with elections coming up within the next Month?

I know Germany backed down on it's planned deportation of a number of existing Afghan refugees in response to the recently unfolding humanitarian crisis, after having been one of the most generous countries in Europe during the Afghan Civil War of the early '90s, but obviously the political climate has changed considerably since then.

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile in Tenderland:

https://twitter.com/ReutersWorld/status/1427306681650843650?s=19

Disgusting, but somewhat understandable considering that the FF is just around the corner in the event that the Coalition Gvt with the Greens collapse.

When I lived in Germany on a couple different occasions in the Mid 1990s, many on the Left would loudly proclaim that the EU experiment would create a Fortress Europe (Festung Europa) where the borders would effectively be shut down to almost all foreign immigration and asylum seekers from outside the EU.

Unfortunately here we are about 25 Jahre später, and almost all European Governments have effectively fallen in step as the Far Right continued to gain vote share election after election.

[NOVA Green]

Macron says EU setting up initiative to thwart arrival of Afghan refugees

French president Emmanuel Macron said the European Union would be setting up an initiative to thwart the expected arrivals of refugees from Afghanistan after the Taliban takeover.

“We must anticipate and protect ourselves against significant irregular migratory flows that would endanger the migrants and risk encouraging trafficking of all kinds,” he said in a televised statement.

He said the response from France, Germany and other EU countries would be “robust, coordinated and united” and would target smuggling rings.

There is something just, intensely morally despicable about this being his reaction. That his priority in a humanitarian crisis is how to stop them from coming over here. It’s just sick. I mean, I have pretty liberal opinions on asylum from the outset, but we as the west collectively have a huge moral failing here and a huge degree of moral responsibility to people who are actively suffering. We should be offering safety to absolutely every Afghan who asks for it, and of course we have the resources between us.

Apart from that, I have nothing to say beyond a sense of horror at what is going on, and can only echo what the likes of Al have said that reading a lot of what people on here have had to say about this makes me want to scream.

"2015 must not repeat itself" was probably the most commonly uttered phrase by CDU politicians in Germany today. Well, that and hanging the blame for the debacle around the neck of foreign minister Heiko Maas (SPD).

Meanwhile in Afghanistan... the first German military transport plane was finally able to land in Kabul. It deployed a unit of paratroopers to further secure the airport and is now on its way back to a base in Uzbekistan with the first batch of evacuees.

Good to hear.

How's this all playing in Germany with elections coming up within the next Month?

I know Germany backed down on it's planned deportation of a number of existing Afghan refugees in response to the recently unfolding humanitarian crisis, after having been one of the most generous countries in Europe during the Afghan Civil War of the early '90s, but obviously the political climate has changed considerably since then.

Greens, FDP, and Left are criticizing the CDU/SPD government for not having seen the success of the Taliban insurgence earlier, despite the fact that there apparently had been warnings from the German Embassy in Kabul to that effect for a couple of weeks now.

Greens and Left in particular have also blasted the government for having stalled the evacuation of locally recruited Afghan staff in past months... something these two parties had advocated for for quite a while now, while CDU and SPD had so far worked on the assumption that a Taliban takeover would be months away at worst.

Like I said before, the CDU is blaming the SPD because the social democrats are running the Foreign Ministry. And the CDU is also afraid of the prospect of another refugee crisis, something that might lead to them losing votes to the AfD.

Speaking of the AfD... I suspect they're at least secretly quite happy about the whole situation for the same reasons the CDU is worried. The voters that are most worried about chaos, uncertainty, and loss of control usually go for the AfD.

Electorally, I'd say both the Greens and the AfD have profited from the refugee issue in the past though, while it is a somewhat delicate topic for CDU and SPD. This is because the latter parties' bases are somewhat divided on refugees and whatever they're doing they stand to lose something.

Interesting that from this description it doesn't sound that any political party is blaming the Americans for not providing intel regarding the state of the military situation on the ground over the past few Months.

I also thought it interesting that the first (?) German civilian flight only went to Uzbekistan versus direct to Germany.

Was that just a temporary logistical thing to maintain "in theater" resources, or was it more, "let's just move refugees there while the political situation in Germany is sorted out regarding more permanent asylum?

Are these civilians who worked for the German effort in Afghanistan including NGOs, regardless of German Nationals or Afghan employees, etc

Do we know more about the background of these Flüchtlinge?

[NOVA Green]

So, will there be a new Northern Alliance?

Nope, the old leaders are at death’s door and divided.

Don't believe that Amrullah Saleh is that young (born in 1971), and Ahmad Massoud (Born 1989) is a young pup, but with a great family history in the equivalent of the Asterix cartoon deal "last village in Gaul" sort of deal....

Dostum's "strategic retreat" to Uzbekistan after basically repossessing all of the Afghan Gvt Military hardware prior to the fall of his turf to the Taliban will effectively remain a puppet of Putin, which they can use a a major chess piece if needed, but is basically on a short leash and unlikely to participate in any direct military activities in the immediate future.

Don't recall off-hand the various historical militias in the Western part of the country outside of Herat and places like that, but obviously Iran will continue to protect the interests of the Shii'te population of the region.

Ethnic Hazzars and Tajiks have considerable sway in respective regions, where there were historically history of massacres previously from Taliban forces in the past...

No, I don't think we will see a revival of a "Northern Alliance Proper", but it's pretty clear that in many parts of Afghanistan the ethnic Pashtun and overall the Deobandi extreme fundamentalist rule, does not mesh well with populations where historically traditional rural folk versions of Islam do not match what is effectively an imported ideology.

Also, with everything so recent on the ground it is questionable to what extent that many of the Taliban Fighters who swarmed various capitols as part of the traditional late Spring to Fall Offensive season, many of whom have tended to be recruited from the Madrassas in SW Pakistan will actually be able to relate to the local populations.

I would not be surprised to see Iran, Russia, India, as well as various factions within Pakistan once again try to figure out ways to carve up the country, keep the flow of weapons going as effectively a "buffer state", while meanwhile the people suffer and the Taliban Gvt allows to the Poppies to once against grow freely, while their GVT is starved of currency, no fuel or spare parts to support what aircraft and military vehicles they might have obtained, while unrest grows throughout not only the urban population centers but also rural areas.

Basically, this is the chance for Taliban 2.0 to show their own population that they can provide essential services, maintain peace and avoid corruption, not risk the wrath of the international community by allowing terrorist facilities to profligate, and not commit anything like the massive atrocious human rights abuses that marked their last Government.

Tall order for sure, and with the release of key Pakistani Taliban leaders from "liberated prisons" within Afghanistan, there is a good chance the Taliban will start to focus East towards Pakistan, where despite the initial support of the JuI and JeI, terrorist activities will increase in Pakistan from the hard-line formations, possibly even calling for the borders to be rearranged to allow a Pashtun majority country....

IDK.... jury is still out out how this is going to go down over time.

[NOVA Green]

America has a tendency to abandon our allies quickly when US Military Forces pull out of what are considered effectively "losing wars".

Perhaps the most recent parallel to the current Humanitarian Crisis in Afghanistan, might be something to how we treated the Kurds.

Most recently, the Trump Administration effectively abandoned the Kurdish Fighters in Northern Syria and the far NW corners of Iraq who had fought side by side with US Special Forces and regular US Military to fight against ISIS.

We abandoned them to the mercy of Turkey, a fellow NATO ally for many decades with a long history of Military Dictatorship, Ethnic Cleansing of Minority populations, not to mention directly responsible for the burning down of over 4,000 Kurdish villages during their war against the Kurdish Intifada and unrest from the last '70s to the mid '90s.

We could also look at how the Bush Sr Administration effectively allowed the Baathist regime of Iraq to use Helicopter gunships against the Kurdish population of the North of Iraq, without even going into our lack of response when the Iraqi Gvt used chemical weapons against Halabja, as well as a nearby village while meanwhile Don Rumsfeld is basically shaking hands with Saddam Hussein while promising US weapons to fight against the Iranian GVT.

The US in the post World War II has increasingly acted like an Imperial Power, without the will to act like a true Colonizer, believing that our piss-ant history and background and version of Democracy will somehow automatically "make friends and influence people", while meanwhile US economic and cultural expansion will somehow create converts from every nation from Iraq to Vietnam to North Africa, etc...

Simply flying the Kurdish flag is banned in Germany and could get you arrested (Yes I was at a few Newroz events back in the mid '90s).

If I lived in Germany and were to post this song off of a German server, I could be arrested simply for the Kurdish Flag and what might be considered a "nationalist" song.

Biden is not responsible at all for what has been a practice for over 50 Years of US Foreign Policy, the perception of ourselves vs how we are perceived elsewhere, when ultimately we are a reluctant empire, but for decades and decades since the end of WW II and the Cold War, have effectively tried to play Kingmaker globally without any education or understanding about the actual world in which we live.

Hell... at least the British Empire spent some time doing some serious research and cultural understandings about the places in which they attempted to dominate.

[NOVA Green]

So one thing I have been pondering over is that despite the facts on the ground where the Taliban effectively control militarily most of the country, including currently the Capitol of Kabul, the US still has effective leverage in multiple ways.

We hold the Airport with 6k US Troops effectively as trip-wires, with a complete red-line to the point that if the Taliban assaults US forces there will be massive retaliation.

Concept would be something like this.... we negotiate a period of time (say two weeks) and ALSO behind the scenes convince the Taliban political leadership in the Gulf Kingdom to allow not only foreign nationals, but ALSO Afghan Nationals a chance to leave, while meanwhile their paperwork can either be processed at the airport or within 3rd Party countries after the fact.

It could not only allow the US and NATO allies to evacuate individuals who are in the "highest risk" category from Afghanistan, but also potentially allow Taliban 2.0 to potentially remove future dissidents or even guerilla warfare in the future without having to risk the international consequences of a bloodbath against those Afghans who fought in the losing side of the Civil War.

Also, it is not unusual (Even in the post 9/11 era) for parents to have sons from their various Tribes and Villages / Towns join both sides, so that way in the event that one side or the other ends up winning, there is not retribution for the families and it allows easy deserting from the ranks in the event the other side in a Civil War becomes victorious.

Also, the Taliban would likely want a carrot, so let's say we give them a certain period before we freeze all of their foreign bank accounts, before the entire International Community takes over the former Afghan Government's treasury...

Thoughts???

[NOVA Green]

So one thing I have been pondering over is that despite the facts on the ground where the Taliban effectively control militarily most of the country, including currently the Capitol of Kabul, the US still has effective leverage in multiple ways.

We hold the Airport with 6k US Troops effectively as trip-wires, with a complete red-line to the point that if the Taliban assaults US forces there will be massive retaliation.

Concept would be something like this.... we negotiate a period of time (say two weeks) and ALSO behind the scenes convince the Taliban political leadership in the Gulf Kingdom to allow not only foreign nationals, but ALSO Afghan Nationals a chance to leave, while meanwhile their paperwork can either be processed at the airport or within 3rd Party countries after the fact.

It could not only allow the US and NATO allies to evacuate individuals who are in the "highest risk" category from Afghanistan, but also potentially allow Taliban 2.0 to potentially remove future dissidents or even guerilla warfare in the future without having to risk the international consequences of a bloodbath against those Afghans who fought in the losing side of the Civil War.

Also, it is not unusual (Even in the post 9/11 era) for parents to have sons from their various Tribes and Villages / Towns join both sides, so that way in the event that one side or the other ends up winning, there is not retribution for the families and it allows easy deserting from the ranks in the event the other side in a Civil War becomes victorious.

Also, the Taliban would likely want a carrot, so let's say we give them a certain period before we freeze all of their foreign bank accounts, before the entire International Community takes over the former Afghan Government's treasury...

Thoughts???

1.I'm not sure exactly what has been negotiated:
"Tomorrow and over the coming days, we will be transferring out of the country thousands of American citizens who have been resident in Afghanistan, as well as locally employed staff of the U.S. mission in Kabul and their families and other particularly vulnerable Afghan nationals," the Department of Defense and the State Department said in a joint statement.

https://thehill.com/policy/international/middle-east-north-africa/568003-central-command-chief-taliban-leaders-reached

2.How long before Republicans who had previously argued on Covid that 'we all die ventually' and who had claimed concern for the fate of the Afghanis start to fearmonger again about potential Muslim terrorists and that 'one death is too many.'?

3.The first poll out on this shows a 20% drop in support for the U.S leaving, from 69% in May to 49% at present. I wonder  how many of those 20% who no longer support the withdrawal are Republicans who supported the withdrawal under Trump but not now that Biden completed it.  Republicans are collectively known too have one position when a Republican is President and a different position when a Democrat is President.  See also deficit spending, interest rates and many other issues.

Deleted the post I was making, since maybe this isn't the right time nor place necessarily to go into the American partisan political scene when it comes to Afghanistan, and perhaps would be more appropriate in a US Domestic Politics thread.

Still, the chicken hawks are coming out in force on Afghanistan, despite their abject failures on so many other American Foreign Policy issues over the decades....

[NOVA Green]

Amrullah Saleh (now based in Panjshir) proclaimed himself President, arguing that Ghani had vacated the presidency by fleeing. That means there are 3 people who claim to be in charge of Afghanistan, although I don't see many people taking Ghani very seriously at this point.

Yeah at least Saleh had the courage to stay in his country, even if at this point he likely has the biggest cross-hairs on his back than any other person currently living on Afghan soil.

(Arguably even before this, he may well have been #1 on the Taliban and ISI's hit list and was targeted multiple times in recent years).

[NOVA Green]

As I had posited Yesterday, it appears that the US might be trying to use the leverage on the Afghani Gvt bank accounts to pressure the Taliban:

Code:

The Biden administration on Sunday froze Afghan government reserves held in U.S. bank accounts, blocking the Taliban from accessing billions of dollars held in U.S. institutions, according to two people familiar with the matter.

The decision was made by Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen and officials in the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control, the people said. The State Department was also involved in discussions over the weekend, with officials in the White House monitoring the developments. An administration official said in a statement, “Any Central Bank assets the Afghan government have in the United States will not be made available to the Taliban.” The officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss government policy not yet made public....

Asked Tuesday what leverage the United States would have over the Taliban going forward, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said that “there are obviously issues related to sanctions” but declined to elaborate. He also said the administration would first communicate directly with the Taliban...

The Afghanistan central bank held $9.4 billion in reserve assets as of April, according to the International Monetary Fund. That amounts to roughly one-third of the country’s annual economic output. The vast majority of those reserves are not currently held in Afghanistan, one of the people familiar with the matter said. Among those, billions of dollars are kept in the United States, although the precise amount is unclear.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2021/08/17/treasury-taliban-money-afghanistan/

[NOVA Green]

Regarding China's interest in Afghanistan now that the Taliban effectively control the physical territory of most of the population and land-mass of the country:

Code:

.....

The departure of the United States from Afghanistan also gives China an opportunity to step into a larger role, at a time when Beijing is seeking greater international sway. Chinese officials signaled their interest in Afghanistan’s future late last month, when Foreign Minister Wang Yi hosted senior Taliban officials in Tianjin.

At the meeting, Wang demanded that the Taliban sever ties with the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), a separatist group that Beijing has blamed for attacks in Xinjiang, even as he said the Taliban would play an important role in rebuilding Afghanistan.

“China has made it very clear,” said Victor Gao, a former Chinese Foreign Ministry official who is now a chair professor at Soochow University. “China will not allow Afghanistan to be used by any force as a threat to China.”....

Chinese officials worry about the prospect of Afghanistan becoming a haven for Islamist militant groups, including ETIM....

China may try to offer the Taliban economic aid or international recognition in exchange for its commitment to cut ties with ETIM — Wang, the foreign minister, made this request explicitly at a recent meeting — but whether it can trust the Taliban remains to be seen, experts say....

“It’s really dangerous for Taliban to fight against ETIM . . . because Taliban will lose legitimacy as a jihadist organization,” he said. Groups like ETIM are connected to a complex network of other Islamist militants across Central Asia, he added, and the Taliban risks infighting if it targets one or the other....

Gao, the former Foreign Ministry official, said China will be happy to deal with the Taliban if it does not lead to more radicalization in the region. But he said there was the possibility that the Taliban may return to its practices from two decades ago.

...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/afghanistan-china-xinjiang-taliban/2021/08/17/4f1fad12-fefe-11eb-87e0-7e07bd9ce270_story.html

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile, Iran has been walking a very fine line on the one hand striking a fairly conciliatory note:

Code:

The “defeat” of the United States in neighbouring Afghanistan should be transformed into an opportunity to “revive life, security and lasting peace” in the country, Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi says.

The new president told outgoing foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, in a phone call on Monday that Iran encourages all groups in Afghanistan to work towards national unity as a “neighbouring and brotherly” country, his website quoted him as saying...

A statement by the Iranian foreign ministry said Zarif emphasised the necessity for preventing more violence and war. He also referred to the displacement of Afghan citizens and their taking refuge in neighbouring countries as one of the most important and urgent aspects of developments in Afghanistan.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/16/raisi-us-defeat-in-afghanistan-should-become-chance-for-peace

Meanwhile Indian and Iranian relations have developed closer with Afghanistan being a subject of conversation less than two weeks ago between the top leaders on 8/5/21

Code:

.... Raisi went on to claim that “Tehran welcomes New Delhi’s role in establishment of security in Afghanistan.”

https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/29890/can-new-delhi-leverage-iran-india-relations-to-adapt-to-afghanistan-s-new-reality

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Sometimes, the enemy of an enemy is an even greater enemy. For Iran, the humiliation of the U.S. in Afghanistan brings to the fore a fiercer foe. If the threat from the Taliban is not as existential to the Islamic Republic as the military presence of its most powerful adversary, the triumphant militia nonetheless poses a grave danger at an especially inconvenient moment. 

Although Iran has stepped up its diplomatic outreach to the Taliban, the government of incoming President Ebrahim Raisi, facing growing discontent at home amid fading hopes of quick economic relief from the West, must now reckon with renewed perils in the east. The Taliban may have no interest in bringing down the Iranian regime, but its ascendancy in the Afghan civil war is sure to send fresh waves of refugees flooding across the 900-kilometer (560-mile) border between the countries, accompanied by a spike in drug and human trafficking, as well as increased terrorist activity....

The Iranians and the Taliban managed to come to a modus vivendi, but relations remained hostile, and not only because of their competing sectarian world views: The mostly Sunni militiamen regard the Shiism of Iran as a heresy. When they ruled Kabul, the Taliban treated Afghanistan’s own Shiite minority with extreme brutality. They now claim to tolerate the sect, but terrorist groups that enjoy Taliban protection have stepped up attacks against Shiite targets. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-07-11/iran-knows-the-triumphant-taliban-in-afghanistan-will-not-be-good-neighbors

[NOVA Green]

Per BBC News, the actual size of the ANA was 50,000 men, not the 300,000 widely reported by Biden and others. When asked whether Biden was aware of this from US intelligence, a White House spokesperson declined to comment.

I am assuming that you are referencing the article posted 16:39 by Richard Watson on BBC Newnight referencing two sources?

...BBC Newsnight has been told that one of the main reasons behind the Afghan National Army's collapse is that the true size of its fighting force was just a fraction of the official figure.....

But two well-placed sources tell us the true number of troops was actually much lower - closer to 50,000....

An Afghani source with direct knowledge told Newsnight that in a meeting with former Foreign Minister Salahuddin Rabbani, newly appointed Defence Minister Bismillah Khan Mohammadi expressed alarm about the true figure of only 50,000 soldiers....

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-asia-58219963

Key caveats here is that this is only based upon two sources (One of whom was the newly appointed Afghan defense minister), and the other being a terrorism expert Dr Sajjan Gohel.

I am not saying this is implausible, let alone how the "Afghan Military Force" figures were calculated, although I suspect that if so likely the higher number included Afghan policemen, milita fighters and others who were likely not on the official payrolls.

It is also completely plausible that the culture of corruption was such (much like during the final couple years of the Vietnam War), where corrupt military and political leaders were "ghosting" the numbers to continue to pad their wallets and riches, and including dead fighters, wounded fighters, and those who deserted.

If anything close to true, this would be a massive failure of US Intelligence Agencies, including US Military Intelligence, not to mention that of our military and NATO allies within the region....

[NOVA Green]

So I don't want to push fake news but there are unconfirmed reports that the Panshjir resistance is already starting to push back against the Taliban does anyone have more information on that.

VP Saleh's forces recaptured Charikar from the Taliban.. that's all the information we have at the moment.

Source?

@sguberman Well at this point we really don't have much verifiable evidence thus far...

New Delhi, August 17

Panjshir Valley, the only district unconquered by the Taliban, has started to fly the flag of resistance all over again.

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The First Vice President (FVP) of Afghanistan and a friend of India, Amrullah Saleh reached the Panjshir Valley and declared himself President. Citing the Constitution, he said in the event of escape, resignation or death of the President, the FVP becomes the caretaker President....

Ahmad Massoud and Defence Minister Bismillah Mohammadi have also promised to side with him. Ahmad is the son of the slain commander Ahmed Shah Masood during whose lifetime the Taliban could not conquer Panjshir Valley during its first spell in power from 1996 to 2001.

Sensing Panjshir as an oasis of relief from the Taliban, minority Shia Hazara families have reportedly walked 200 km to reach the Valley, famous for its emeralds, mulberries and indomitable fighters. Many of the Tajiks in the Afghan army have also arrived with their equipment, including armed personnel carriers and tanks, after withdrawing from the nearby frontlines....

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/world/panjshir-flies-flag-of-resistance-again-amrullah-says-he-is-president-of-afghanistan-298553

Now we have the guy AncestralDemocrat linked on Twitter, but quite frankly I'm a little bit skeptical, since he looks to perhaps be linked to the Turkish Government propaganda machine once you check out some of his other Twitter posts.

The dude is basically posting: "Tens of Thousands of Afghan soldiers under the leadership of General Dostum are now being sent to the region".


Wouldn't put too much truck based upon that dude's postings since it appears to be focused mainly on domestic Turkish political consumption (Considering Uzbeks are a Turkic based ethnic population within Central Asia).

Naturally everything is fast moving and fluid, and it is entirely plausible that a significant number of Hazaara's and Afghan Army Special Forces retreated to Panjshir, and are quite possibly hitting back, but not really sure we have much more than the fact that there is a domestic Guerrilla Anti-Taliban base focused on that region.

[NOVA Green]

So I don't want to push fake news but there are unconfirmed reports that the Panshjir resistance is already starting to push back against the Taliban does anyone have more information on that.

VP Saleh's forces recaptured Charikar from the Taliban.. that's all the information we have at the moment.

has it been confirmed all I see were reports that he had but no confirmation?

So to follow up on my previous post (and unfortunately most of our English and European posters are likely asleep at the moment), I decided to take a look at the source of this story in slightly greater detail.

1.) Ragıp Soylu lists in his Twitter handle that he is the Turkish Bureau Chief for "MiddleEastEye".

2.) Naturally the next question would be what is the media outfit MiddleEastEye?

    A.) Here is a link to the Wikipedia page:

       https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_East_Eye

    B.) In theory it generally appears like a somewhat credible media outlet, although it relies mostly
         upon freelancers to create their content.

3.) Actually looking at Ragıp Soylu's bio even on MiddleEastEye, it looks pretty credible in terms of his contributions to various international media outlets.

      A.) Then you see that he is major contributor to Daily Sabah

            i.) Propaganda outfit for the Turkish Government

               https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daily_Sabah

      B.) ATV:

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ATV_(Turkish_TV_channel)

      C.) Politics Today:

            Look at his article on "What is really behind the Iran Sanctions Case?"

“If cargo planes are carrying tons of gold, this cannot go unnoticed by customs officials or the state. We had clear evidence that the embargo imposed on Iran was infiltrated through this trade. We had informed both Halkbank and the Financial Crimes Investigation Board.”

This was how the operation that resulted in the request for a warrant issue to the former minister of economy Zafer Caglayan in the US started. This operation was not only used to interfere with the internal affairs of Turkey, but also as a means to defame Turkey internationally. So how did we come to this stage and what do these accusations in the case against the Turkish people by the US mean? To answer these questions, we have to go back a bit. According to the December 17 summary, the police probe based on “corruption” led by Gulenist criminal cult members at the time, started in 2012. Currently, it is not possible to determine whether FETO informed the US on the Zarrab case, or whether the US warned the police, who constantly gave briefings at the Ankara Embassy. But what we do know for sure is that the US was aware and very uncomfortable that Turkey paid Iran for the natural gas trade in gold.

          https://politicstoday.org/author/ragip-soylu/

Needless to say this guy is not a reliable source of dog crap in a park in Ankara or Istanbul, let alone developments in Afghanistan....

[NOVA Green]

I don't know whether these reports are reliable or not, but if VP Saleh is going to mount a credible last stand now that the odds are totally against him, then what was he doing last week? Why wasn't he trying to marshal the defense? Was Ghani the only person that could do anything?

I would imagine last week he likely realized that the Taliban would take Kabul, and it would be better to help prepare for a guerrilla warfare campaign instead of getting sold out and traded to the Taliban / ISI considering that he likely had better sources of raw intelligence of the situation on the ground than just about anyone else.

I have been pondering this for more than a few days now of what it might take to successfully mount a sustained resistance under these circumstances:

1.) Typically a Guerilla Warfare Campaign does not necessarily require more than 10-15% of the population which support the movement.

In fact, if estimates are to be believed the Taliban only had roughly 15-20% support among the Afghan population prior to their "Victory" in Afghanistan.

2.) "Rear Base"--- If the Guerrilla movement are to be successful it will require "The guerrilla must move amongst the people as a fish swims in the sea." ( To loosely paraphrase Mao).

Here in this case the Panjshir Valley would potentially present such a location, considering not only what is likely an overwhelmingly Anti-Taliban local population, but also a key military strategic location which historically has made it difficult for opposing military forces to be able to conquer (Including the Soviet Military in the '80s).

3.) Weapons---

Generally speaking shortage of military weapons in Afghanistan is not a problem for any actors within the country, since the average number of guns per household likely makes any average American Gun-Hoarding Militia member jealous.

Additionally, it is entirely plausible that significant amount of heavy weapons and small arms were relocated from the Afghan National Army and "repossessed" within the past week, especially once it became clear that Kabul would fall regardless of the potential to fight to protect the City, which likely would have resulted in significant civilian casualties.

This would also likely include heavy vehicles such as Tanks and APC's not to mention even potentially heavy artillery units mounted on vehicles.

Obviously this would not include assets such as Airplanes and Helicopters (for the most part), but not quite sure how many Taliban members would even know what to do with these, even assuming they continue to have access to fuel....

4.) Supplies & Reinforcements---

This gets a bit trickier considering how the Taliban will likely be shifting resources towards areas where they consider to still be in states of "active resistance" against their rule.

At some point one would imagine that the Taliban once they consider Kabul to be relatively secured to shift their formations directly towards Panjshir Province, in an attempt to isolate the Afghan resistance.

Perhaps most problematically for the Afghan Resistance, there isn't really any easy access to resupply routes, let alone airports, not to mention the fact that thus far there are not any international actors yet willing to back the resistance.

It is not an impossible task for the Panjshiri Resistance to obtain supplies of food and munitions over time, but since the Taliban Offensive was able to effectively take over most of Afghanistan relatively early on in the traditional Spring > Late Fall Military season, it might make it more difficult to potentially be able to bring in resources during the Winter Months, where traditionally it is easier to use traditional international and local smuggling routes over Mountain Passes with less risk.

5.) "X-Factors"

What we don't know is to what extent there might be existing contacts among various Tribes and Clans of various Ethnic Populations and potential coordination, including members of the former Afghan Security Forces who might have gone underground, but still maintain connections.

We don't know to what extent the Afghan Resistance might be able to use the same $$$ for soldiers to quickly fund resistance movements within many parts of Afghanistan historically not supportive of Taliban rule.

We don't know to what extent Pakistani Military Intelligence and the ISI have been supporting the Taliban troops on the ground and directly responsible for what appears to have been an extremely well coordinated Summer Offensive of 2021.

Obviously the Afghan Resistance will likely face an uphill struggle against a Professional Military which has been fully trained and supported by the US Military for decades....

6.) Insurgency as a "Wait and See Game"

Here is where the concept would be "Hold the Rear Base", foment and support discontent in the Cities and rural countryside, and essentially maintain a "symbolic guerrilla resistance", while meanwhile allowing the Taliban to collapse as people take to the streets in protest of food shortages, fuel shortages, lack of clean drinking water, etc....

Arguably this is most likely the route that the current Afghan resistance is pursuing, considering that at this point they are effectively alone without any International Allies, despite the Taliban having few friends even among their immediate neighbors....

[NOVA Green]

As I had posited Yesterday, it appears that the US might be trying to use the leverage on the Afghani Gvt bank accounts to pressure the Taliban:

Code:

The Biden administration on Sunday froze Afghan government reserves held in U.S. bank accounts, blocking the Taliban from accessing billions of dollars held in U.S. institutions, according to two people familiar with the matter.

The decision was made by Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen and officials in the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control, the people said. The State Department was also involved in discussions over the weekend, with officials in the White House monitoring the developments. An administration official said in a statement, “Any Central Bank assets the Afghan government have in the United States will not be made available to the Taliban.” The officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss government policy not yet made public....

Asked Tuesday what leverage the United States would have over the Taliban going forward, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said that “there are obviously issues related to sanctions” but declined to elaborate. He also said the administration would first communicate directly with the Taliban...

The Afghanistan central bank held $9.4 billion in reserve assets as of April, according to the International Monetary Fund. That amounts to roughly one-third of the country’s annual economic output. The vast majority of those reserves are not currently held in Afghanistan, one of the people familiar with the matter said. Among those, billions of dollars are kept in the United States, although the precise amount is unclear.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2021/08/17/treasury-taliban-money-afghanistan/

One item which I neglected to mention when it comes to the ability of the International Community to cut off the supply of currency to the Taliban regime becomes a bit more problematic.

Although it is a topic which I am well familiar with from not only TV fictional series such as the British Channel 4 TV Series Traffik (Although obviously most of you might be more familiar with the 2000 Movie set in Mexico)....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Traffik

but also books which I had read such as the first edition of Alfred McCoy's classic and meticulously researched work back shortly after it came out:

The Politics of Heroin: CIA Complicity in the Global Drug Trade

https://www.amazon.com/Politics-Heroin-Complicity-Global-Trade/dp/1556524838

The Taliban, as well as the former US back Government in Afghanistan have both long profited from the one real natural resource available, to what is generally a rural and underdeveloped nation with a lack of any significant manufacturing or production centers, but with one of the best and highest quality supplies of a raw commodity with significant demand in many parts of the world...

POPPY PLANTS

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/profits-poppy-afghanistans-illegal-drug-trade-boon-taliban-2021-08-16/

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/8/16/opium-afghanistans-illicit-drug-trade-that-helped-fuel-taliban

https://www.independent.co.uk/asia/south-asia/afghanistan-taliban-drug-opium-production-b1904147.html

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/30/afghan-opium-production-explodes-billions-spent-us-report

Now, before we blame the Taliban exclusively for this, we must also remember that many members of the former Afghan Government, even at the Highest levels, also were raking in cash off the trade, while meanwhile provincial Governors would negotiate with Tribal leaders in areas where there was a mixture of both insurgents and government control to cut sections of the profits off of the poppy trade.

Will Poppy cultivation and associated production of Heroin increase or decrease now that the Old Regime is gone?

Either way, the Taliban likely won't want to risk the political backlash from impoverished rural agricultural workers by moving aggressively against it, considering that is considered a major reason as to why many rural ag labors swung against the Karzai Gvt after the first Taliban experiment in Gvt in Afghanistan.

[NOVA Green]

Ahmad Massoud is already courting American public policy makers and influencers within the beltway with an Op-Ed published in the Washington Post today:

Opinion: The mujahideen resistance to the Taliban begins now. But we need help.

....I write from the Panjshir Valley today, ready to follow in my father’s footsteps, with mujahideen fighters who are prepared to once again take on the Taliban. We have stores of ammunition and arms that we have patiently collected since my father’s time, because we knew this day might come.

We also have the weapons carried by the Afghans who, over the past 72 hours, have responded to my appeal to join the resistance in Panjshir. We have soldiers from the Afghan regular army who were disgusted by the surrender of their commanders and are now making their way to the hills of Panjshir with their equipment. Former members of the Afghan Special Forces have also joined our struggle.

But that is not enough. If Taliban warlords launch an assault, they will of course face staunch resistance from us. The flag of the National Resistance Front will fly over every position that they attempt to take, as the National United Front flag flew 20 years ago. Yet we know that our military forces and logistics will not be sufficient. They will be rapidly depleted unless our friends in the West can find a way to supply us without delay.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/08/18/mujahideen-resistance-taliban-ahmad-massoud/

[NOVA Green]

Update from the BBC liveblog

Afghan cities see anti-Taliban protests

The BBC's Pashto Service reports that anti-Taliban protests are taking place in the cities of Jalalabad, Kunar and Khost, with demonstrators waving Afghan flags.

It is too early to say if it will spread nationally, but things are changing fast and the Taliban are tense, our journalists say.

In the Panjshir Valley there are unverified videos of a huge caravan of motorbikes with flags of the former Northern Alliance. They are being called the “resistance army” of former Vice-President Amrullah Saleh, who has proclaimed himself acting president.

Officials at the Afghan embassy in Tajikistan have already put up pictures of Mr Saleh, naming him as their president.

The Taliban have not yet commented on any of these developments.

Interestingly enough these "urban uprisings" (Although that might be a stretch of a term to use at this point), were actually in provinces which experienced some of the most sustained guerrilla combat activities against the US / Allied Foreign Military Forces, as well as the Afghan National Army.

This perhaps makes this development even more remarkable....

So here is a brief summary of just one of these Provinces, which contains one of the largest Cities in Afghanistan....

I strongly doubt that many reading this will have the stamina to read even my entire post, let alone some or all of the documentation referenced at the bottom of the post, but hey Afghanistan is a complicated country and anybody who believes simple sound bites and slogans tell a story are obviously not interested anyways...

Jalalabad (Nangarhar province) has long played a critical role in political developments within Afghanistan over the decades (and longer) because of it's strategic location as a trading city with the border cities located in nearby Pakistan, it's fertile agricultural industry (including until fairly recently one of the largest poppy producing areas, as well as effectively the highway pipelines that connect to Kabul from the East of the Capitol.

Interestingly enough, despite ~90% of the population being Ethnic Pashtun, it was never historically a major Taliban stronghold, perhaps because of the significant influence of local Tribal leaders, as well as relative proximity to the Capitol of Kabul, where the Central Government would dispense significant $$$ to the province because of it's history as "Afghanistan's breadbasket", not to mention control of key trading routes into Pakistan (Including "informal" border crossings / smuggler routes.

Many of the insurgents fighting in Nangarhar would traditionally come over the border during the traditional "fighting season", and retreat back over the Mountains before the first snows would shutter the passes, with some of major exceptions being within the SW portion of the district, especially the heartlands of the Khogiani Tribe.

This would change dramatically between 2010 and 2015, with only (5) districts being considered under full Government control and the vast majority of the rest considered "contested".

In many ways Nangarhar province was best known as one of the few provinces in Afghanistan where the Islamic State (IS-KP) heavily composed of former Pakistani Taliban members established strong enclaves within the Eastern part of the province and were effectively engaged in a war against the regular Taliban insurgents starting around 2015, with the "Daesh" (Islamic State) militants mainly taking over those districts within the province with a significant Taliban presence.

The Taliban reportedly relocated ~3,000 cadres from other provinces within Afghanistan in an attempt to retake control from the Islamic State.

At some point, one might wonder to what extent the success of the Poppy Eradication program in Nangarhar province (90% reduction from early 2000s to 2020), helped fuel the growth of indigenous and local support for the Taliban over time, especially among agricultural laborers and subsistence farmers in rural districts within the province.

Despite the source (RAND Corp) this is a really detailed (30) page chapter of a book published in 2010, which provides an excellent and detailed summary of the province:

https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.7249/mg870osd.12?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents

Here is a (32) page assessment published by a Norwegian Government agency which is an independent body within the Norwegian Immigration Authorities in 2016 which focuses on the security situation within Nangarhar Province including very detailed district level breakdowns and analysis:

https://www.refworld.org/pdfid/5a6af7d24.pdf

An actually pretty well sourced article from USA Today of all places (!!!) which talks about the "Road Building Program" in Nangarhar in 2007, which was primarily a counter-insurgency initiative (See RAND article above), including how rural poppy farmers might view that road as a threat to their livelihood.

https://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/world/2007-06-19-afghan-road_N.htm

Here is a (20) page Brookings Institute Study from 2016, which although it does not focus solely on Nangarhar Province, naturally addresses the Province as well in a bit of detail:

Alarmed by the spread of opium poppy cultivation, some public officials in the United States in 2004 and 2005 also started calling for a strong poppy eradication campaign, including aerial spraying.

Thus, between 2004 and 2009, manual eradication was carried out by central Afghan units trained by Dyncorp, as well as by regional governors and their forces.  Violent strikes and social protests immediately rose up against it. Another wave of eradication took place in 2005, when reduction in poppy cultivation was achieved. Most of the reduction was due to cultivation suppression in Nangarhar province, where, through promises of alternative development and threats of imprisonment, production was slashed by 90 percent.

However, alternative livelihoods never materialized for many. The Cash-for-Work programs reached only a small percentage of the population in Nangarhar, mainly those living close to cities. The overall pauperization of the population there was devastating.  Unable to repay debts, many farmers were forced to sell their daughters as young as three years old as brides or abscond to Pakistan. In Pakistan, the refugees have frequently ended up in the radical Deobandi madrasas and have begun refilling the ranks of the Taliban.

Apart from incorporating the displaced farmers into their ranks, the Taliban also began to protect the farmers’ opium fields, in addition to protecting traffic. In fact, the antagonized poppy farmers came to constitute a strong and key base of support for the Taliban, denying intelligence to ISAF and providing it to the Taliban. Just like interdiction, eradication has been plagued by massive corruption problems, with powerful elites able to bribe or coerce their way out of having their opium poppy fields destroyed or able to direct eradication against their political opponents; and with the poorest farmers, most vulnerable to Taliban mobilization, bearing the brunt of eradication.

https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/FelbabBrown-Afghanistan-final.pdf

Slight side note, for anyone interested in how the Islamic State was able to develop a foothold in Nangarhar, here is an article worthy of a read from September 2016:

https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/en/reports/war-and-peace/descent-into-chaos-why-did-nangarhar-turn-into-an-is-hub/

I really doubt any of you will spent the Hour or so it takes to digest all of this information, but sometimes simply by looking at the History of just one province in Afghanistan over the past (20) Years can help provide some understanding about how flawed the initial project was from the early 2000's onwards.