French presidential election, 2022

[Oryxslayer]

All that is left now is Marseilles, Nice, Toulon, Toulouse, Lyon, Montpellier, Bordeaux, Strasbourg, Saint-Étienne, and the Parisian core communes.

Melenchon won Amiens, barely lost Tours.

Its not going to happen then,Melenchon is not going to be able to close down 1.1 million vote margin

It was never going to happen. If it was, we would have gotten an update from ipsos covering their ass, but they are sticking by the 1%. It's just interesting to see that tripartite polarization between I suspected would occur yesterday.

[parochial boy]

Without getting into the argument about tactical votes and who stole whose vote - there is a funny consistency in that Mélenchon seems to have won about 70% of the left wing vote both in 2017 and this time. A similar 30% odd of the left electorate who are resistant to his... charms?

The difference is that the left wing vote is actually 5-6% bigger than it was five years ago - the latest projection has it essentially equal in size to Le Pen-Zemmour-NDA combined. Did anyone expect either of those things at any point over the last five years? Like, after all, after everything, we could be waking up to a France where more people vote for the left than for the far right. I'm sorry but that in itself seems like a miracle.

I mean, no matter what shït people will throw at each other, and who will point fingers at who. Remember that there is still a left wing electorate in France, and even despite the circumstances it has grown. At least there's grounds for optimism, and there hasn't been in a while.

[lfromnj]

Wonderful news. Either result is great.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Together with the fact that some cities (or parts) and foreign resident ballots (not included in turnout) are left to be count, still a possibility that Melenchon makes it but a hard and difficult possibility.



The trend needs to hold till the end.

[Storr]

Together with the fact that some cities (or parts) and foreign resident ballots (not included in turnout) are left to be count, still a possibility that Melenchon makes it but a hard and difficult possibility.



The trend needs to hold till the end.

Melenchon just passed 7 million votes nationally. Macron just reached 9 million. Le Pen is less than 60,000 from 8 million votes. 
https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/presidentielle-2022/FE.html

[Oryxslayer]

Le Pen barely won Toulon, Macron wins Bordeaux and Nice.

[Boobs]

Melu does slightly better in Montpellier (40.73%) than in Lille (40.53%)

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Thank y'all Jadot & Roussel & Poutou & Hidalgo voters

Well let's now support Le Pen because she is apparently preferrable over Melu to you. And she has the far better economical program over Macron's and that's the most important thing.

[Oryxslayer]

Melenchon wins Strasbourg an Toulouse.

[Frodo]

Jacobin (of course) has its take on the recent election:

France’s Election Shows How the Neoliberalized Left Has Collapsed

[Mike88]

Does the current nationwide tally include the 18 arrondissements counted from Paris, or not?

[VPH]

I wonder how this would look with ranked-choice voting.

[Red Velvet]

The liberal left is indeed a joke against the populist right. They’re not allies and don’t represent me. If I were French I would probably be a Melenchon - Abstention voter as well.

Ana Gomes from the socialist party in Portugal appears to be happy about Le Pen going to runoff because it means the “anti-democratic Left” failed. These European “center-left” people are moderate neoliberals and fascist enablers. The idea of accepting a primary with them is based on the assumption they’re on a similar-ish side, which they are not. Old left or bust.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

The liberal left is indeed a joke against the populist right. They’re not allies and don’t represent me. If I were French I would probably be a Melenchon - Abstention voter as well.

Ana Gomes from the socialist party in Portugal appears to be happy about Le Pen going to runoff because it means the “anti-democratic Left” failed. These “center-left” people are moderate neoliberals and fascist enablers. The idea of accepting a primary with them is based on the assumption they’re on a similar-ish side, which they are not. Old left or bust.

Don't call Macron left wing. That's the last thing he is.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

All arrondissemonts are in except for the 1st and the 20th.
The 20th should be pretty solidly pro-Melenchon.

[Biden 2024]

Ruffin 2027 I guess.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Ruffin 2027 I guess.

Oh i suppose the greens will run again, PCF will run, NPA will run, Macron will say he is a leftist, animalist party will run, a newly feminist party might run, the party of the left-wing agrarians might run, perhaps some kind of left-wing scientific socialist party, the two trotskyist parties, a maoist party and we also need a stalinist party and maybe a digital pirate party or a pro-federal european party. And Taubira will also run because why not.

Some will consider Ruffin too extreme, others will find him too soft. We apparently learned nothing from 2017, nothing.

If Le Pen takes this, may embarassment haunt the faux left till the last of their days.

[MaxQue]

Ruffin 2027 I guess.

Oh i suppose the greens will run again, PCF will run, NPA will run, Macron will say he is a leftist, animalist party will run, a newly feminist party might run, the party of the left-wing agrarians might run, perhaps some kind of left-wing scientific socialist party, the two trotskyist parties, a maoist party and we also need a stalinist party and maybe a digital pirate party or a pro-federal european party. And Taubira will also run because why not.

Some will consider Ruffin too extreme, others will find him too soft. We apparently learned nothing from 2017, nothing.

If Le Pen takes this, may embarassment haunt you till the last of your days.

Macron is term-limited if he wins.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Ruffin 2027 I guess.

Oh i suppose the greens will run again, PCF will run, NPA will run, Macron will say he is a leftist, animalist party will run, a newly feminist party might run, the party of the left-wing agrarians might run, perhaps some kind of left-wing scientific socialist party, the two trotskyist parties, a maoist party and we also need a stalinist party and maybe a digital pirate party or a pro-federal european party. And Taubira will also run because why not.

Some will consider Ruffin too extreme, others will find him too soft. We apparently learned nothing from 2017, nothing.

If Le Pen takes this, may embarassment haunt you till the last of your days.

Macron is term-limited.

He'll probably launch an heir or something like that, just like if Biden runs for a second term will launch Harris in 2028, doesn't change anything. You feel not represented in a democracy because of that. The same match up while Le Pen was clearly rejected in 2017...

[angus]

All arrondissemonts are in except for the 1st and the 20th.
The 20th should be pretty solidly pro-Melenchon.

Man, you guys are really into the fine-grained details.  Now I remember that about this place.  Real politics junkies.  Well, I've been to the first but not the 20th arrondissement.  But I do know that Jim Morrison of The Doors is buried there, so I guess that counts for something.

Cheers, Phil.  

[Philly D.]

All that's left to report is Paris I and XX, Marseille XIII arrondissements, Villeurbanne and the overseas vote. Good for Meluche, but not good enough -- Ipsos likely underestimated the Le Pen-Méluche margin by 1 point.

[Mike88]

The liberal left is indeed a joke against the populist right. They’re not allies and don’t represent me. If I were French I would probably be a Melenchon - Abstention voter as well.

Ana Gomes from the socialist party in Portugal appears to be happy about Le Pen going to runoff because it means the “anti-democratic Left” failed. These European “center-left” people are moderate neoliberals and fascist enablers. The idea of accepting a primary with them is based on the assumption they’re on a similar-ish side, which they are not. Old left or bust.

I watched her commentary time on SIC Noticias and she wasn't happy with Le Pen going to the runoff, although she indeed hates Mélenchon, she actually said that. She added that Macron should talk with Mélenchon in order to have him clearly say that his voters should consider Macron.

[Hash]

Three basic scattered impressions based on looking at maps:

- Huge numbers for Mélenchon in the cities and banlieues: he clearly coalesced a large swathe of the left behind him, strategically, and while it wasn't enough to matter for the runoff, it made for some impressive headline numbers in a lot of areas, particularly the greater Paris region (49% in the 93!) but also victories in towns like Strasbourg and Nantes which, even from 2017, you wouldn't expect to be Mélenchon-favourable. There's definitely a class element to it but his electorate is kind of cuts across class in urban cores, perhaps more than in 2017 (when you had a lot of left-liberals for Macron and Hamon's more bobo-centric electorate). On the other hand, his results in some 'white-working class' (sorry for using this US term) areas and rural areas are not particularly impressive, lower than 2017 in places.

- Macron is the candidate of the old mainstream right. This was not the case in 2017, but it already kind of was in 2019, and got clearer this year. He swept the very affluent suburbs and resort towns which had voted Fillon in 2017 - like, for example, Neuilly-sur-Seine or western Paris. Of course, Macron's electorate is still quite different from the old mainstream right's electorate: he is missing a lot of the traditionally conservative rural areas, particularly in the south and east, and has retained regions like Brittany, which are more left-leaning from a pro-European, Christian democratic centrist tradition, and is stronger in the cities than the right was in 2007/2012.

- I expected the phenomenon of Zemmour doing well in right-wing affluent areas but I didn't expect it'd be that hilarious: he is consistently outperforming Panzergirl, sometimes by a not insignificant margin, in nearly all traditional wealthy right-wing areas -- 17.5% in Paris 16ème, 18.8% in Neuilly-sur-Seine, 12.9% in Saint-Cloud, 22.4% in Saint-Tropez (behind Panzergirl but not by much). A lot of those votes came from people who voted for Fillon in 2017 because Panzergirl never did that well in those places: I feel like Zemmour got the stereotypical racist reactionaries who think Panzergirl likes the yucky poor people a bit too much.

[Oryxslayer]

For those still unsure about the result, Melenchon is down by 800K votes. Last time there was a bit over 500K overseas ballots, so even if he wins every one of them Le Pen is still ahead.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It is patently clear from both his surge in the polls and the pattern of his support - quite different to last time in some seriously suggestive ways! - that Melenchon benefited from a huge wave of tactical voting and that the people who voted for other Left candidates were people who think the man is too much of an [expletive deleted] to cast their vote for. There is always a hard limit on tactical voting potential, and I tend to think that Melenchon hit his. In any case, he's a bad man and you shouldn't feel sorry for him, even if it would (obviously) be preferable if he had reached the second round instead of Le Pen.