USA 2020 Census Results Thread (Release: Today, 26 April)

[Roronoa D. Law]

VA not having gained anything since 1990 is honestly astonishing to me.

It suffers Black Belt population loss like the rest of the South and its Applachian parts are free-falling like West Virginia and Kentucky. TN, SC, NC, and GA have mid-size cities or resort communities to stop it from free-falling like that. 

[Skill and Chance]

VA not having gained anything since 1990 is honestly astonishing to me.

Not that shocking.  Early 2010's austerity followed by the 1st anti-military industrial complex Republican since WWII effectively ended the NOVA population boom.

[Wormless Gourd]

OVER/UNDERPERFORMANCE MAP

Green is overperformance; Red is underperformance

90% Shade: ±4% or more
80% Shade: ±3% - ±4%
70% Shade: ±2.5% - ±3%
60% Shade: ±2% - ±2.5%
50% Shade: ±1.5% - ±2%
40% Shade: ±1% - ±1.5%
30% Shade: ±0.5% - ±1%

Yellow: ±0% - ±0.5% (The Census Bureau was very accurate in projecting the populations of these states)


I have accepted reality. On the bright side, Florida's GDP per capita is now known to be higher than expected.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/1386771549038985218

[Sol]

These patterns seem extremely suggestive of large Latino under-counts, likely down to the Trump admin's relentless politicizing and citizenship question.

Yes, but if so, not in NY or NJ...

Presumably Puerto Ricans found the citizenship question less threatening for obvious reasons.

[lfromnj]

These patterns seem extremely suggestive of large Latino under-counts, likely down to the Trump admin's relentless politicizing and citizenship question.

Yes, but if so, not in NY or NJ...

Presumably Puerto Ricans found the citizenship question less threatening for obvious reasons.

Will have to see for Osceola county.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

MI-14 is #444

We are keeping 13 in 2030

Can you post a link to where you are getting this info please?

[Brittain33]

These patterns seem extremely suggestive of large Latino under-counts, likely down to the Trump admin's relentless politicizing and citizenship question.

Yes, but if so, not in NY or NJ...

Presumably Puerto Ricans found the citizenship question less threatening for obvious reasons.

Will have to see for Osceola county.

Also, there wasn't actually a citizenship question on the Census, only the threat of one.

[OBD]

Wait Arizona didn’t gain? WHAT?

[Tintrlvr]

Puerto Rico lost 11.8% of it's population since 2010 and hasn't had this few people on the island since the 1980s.

Here’s a big part of your explanation for those NY/NJ undercounts.

[iceman]

when do county populations come out?

[Brittain33]

MI-14 is #444

We are keeping 13 in 2030

Can you post a link to where you are getting this info please?

Tables are on the Census website, it's not hard to find.

[Tender Branson]

when do county populatins come out?

Mid-August.

[Wormless Gourd]

Puerto Rico lost 11.8% of it's population since 2010 and hasn't had this few people on the island since the 1980s.

Here’s a big part of your explanation for those NY/NJ undercounts.

This is probably wrong but I assume it's harder to count PR-born residents since they can move freely to the US? It'd be like tracking inter-state movements.

[Skye]

Well that was quite shocking.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Pretty clear that the anti-immigrant rhetoric hurt FL and TX.

There was a clear intimidation campaign by the Trump administration to undercount the Hispanic community and it back fired. Had they saw the results out of Florida and TX house they would have reconsidered.

That and I’d bet that Hispanics are better reached by door-to-door census takers, which uh, was difficult for 2020.

[muon2]

THE TABLES !!!

https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/2020/data/apportionment/population-change-data-table.pdf

NY over 20 million !!

PA over 13 million !

I used the table in this link and I got slightly different priority values than the table in the linked tweet. Is this not the apportionment table?

https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/1386771549038985218

[Tintrlvr]

Puerto Rico lost 11.8% of it's population since 2010 and hasn't had this few people on the island since the 1980s.

Here’s a big part of your explanation for those NY/NJ undercounts.

This is probably wrong but I assume it's harder to count PR-born residents since they can move freely to the US? It'd be like tracking inter-state movements.

You mean track them in the estimates? Yes, I do think the Census Bureau not being great at estimating interstate (and sometimes intra-state, too — see Detroit in the 2010 Census) migration (including PR and the other territories) is usually the cause of a lot of the error in the annual estimates.

[Tender Branson]

THE TABLES !!!

https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/2020/data/apportionment/population-change-data-table.pdf

NY over 20 million !!

PA over 13 million !

I used the table in this link and I got slightly different priority values than the table in the linked tweet. Is this not the apportionment table?

Nope.

It's the resident population.

The apportionment table is here:

https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/2020/data/apportionment/apportionment-2020-table01.pdf

[lfromnj]

Of the relative surprise seats here is my opinion of the results

FL/TX Gaining only 3 instead of 5. Good for D's in EC. Probably good news for D's in the house. albiet with the Caveat is that if there was a minority undercount here it would expand any packed seats. This could hurt Fletcher as the 3 Houston packs, can expand a bit more if my assumption is true. Easier to gerrymander her out in this scenario. In FL I am not sure. Assuming Crist Murphy and Lawson are still drawn out. This hurts Murphy as 2 packs expand a bit. For Lawson its a slight positive actually due to the way the rurals are East of Tallahassee.  For Crist it depends on what the FL GOP does.
 

AZ-not gaining, not sure. This does mean Dems now have the excuse of using least change to protect the gerrymander in outstate. The Gerrymander in Maricopa is actually a slight dummymander by now by overpacking AZ09. AZ does have a Latino population but whites are relatively liberal here so the main group is whites.
MT+1- not a surprise but wasn't a certainty. Good for Rs in the EC but the Montana supreme court rigged the commission pretty hard so good for D's in the house.

MN keeps- not super surprising. Good for D's in the EC. IMO neutral overall for the house delegation.

RI-Keeping, definitely good for D's in the EC and 98% good for D's in the house map. They might want to consider shoring up the outer seat a touch.

AL-Keeping, good for R's in the EC. Probably good for Rs in house too as I didn't expect them to try to chop the black seat

NY-1. Surprised it was that close to 27 . Not surprised by 26 exactly though. However its mostly good for D's although 26 seats is a bit awkward compared to 25 where 1 NYC/1 Upstate would be cut. With 26 seats the mean of population loss is somewhere in Delgado's/SPM's seat and the Hudson River Valley is relatively bottlenecked.

[ultraviolet]

THE TABLES !!!

https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/2020/data/apportionment/population-change-data-table.pdf

NY over 20 million !!

PA over 13 million !

I used the table in this link and I got slightly different priority values than the table in the linked tweet. Is this not the apportionment table?

https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/1386771549038985218

I also got different numbers than the tweet. Did you get the 435th seat as 762,562.3367?

[iceman]

Haven’t seen anyone yet commented on how California was so close of losing a second seat as well.

[Tender Branson]

THE TABLES !!!

https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/2020/data/apportionment/population-change-data-table.pdf

NY over 20 million !!

PA over 13 million !

I used the table in this link and I got slightly different priority values than the table in the linked tweet. Is this not the apportionment table?

https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/1386771549038985218

I also got different numbers than the tweet. Did you get the 435th seat as 762,562.3367?

You guys are mixing up resident population with apportionment population.

Here are both next to each other:

https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/2020/data/apportionment/apportionment-2020-tableA.pdf

The apportionment population excludes DC, but includes the overseas military.

[muon2]

To use an example of my discrepancy, I see MN has a resident population of p = 5,706,494. p/7 = 815,213.43 and p/8 = 713,311.75. Multiply these and take the square root and I get 762,562.34 which isn't what was in the tweet (762,997.71). Do I have the wrong MN population or is the tweet incorrect? It would matter if NY sues of the margin by which they missed a seat.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Haven’t seen anyone yet commented on how California was so close of losing a second seat as well.

California is always close to both losing and gaining a seat just by how the formula treats a state this large and how such a massive percentage of all 435 seats are Californian in the first place. The TL;DR is that CA is right where it was thought to be.