GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[HillGoose]

hell ya im so glad herschel walker got his ass beat

the ppl of GA chose the morally upstanding option!

massive respect to GA for doing the right thing and not electing this scumbag

[Smash255]

For all the talk about north Georgia rurals swinging to Walker, that's probably the area where Kemp would have the greatest effect on getting those skeptical of Walker to pull the lever of him. His purported "operation" was probably strongest there.

As for the precincts of counties, how are you all getting them? The SOS downloads aren't working for me.

Some of the bigger counties have integrated precinct result maps in the SoS data: click on "counties reporting" and then click on counties like Fulton, Gwinnett, etc.

Bro apparently Warnock won most precincts in eastern Cobb, almost every Henry and Gwinnett precinct, and a few precincts in Cherokee County. That’s actually insane

And here's Cobb. Wow:

The margins in the old 6th....

[Horus]

Bro apparently Warnock won most precincts in eastern Cobb, almost every Henry and Gwinnett precinct, and a few precincts in Cherokee County. That’s actually insane

If democrats start to get around 40% in Cherokee County then I think republicans will be done in Georgia

Forsyth and Cherokee have traditionally been and still are the 2 biggest R vote nets in the state. In 2020, Trump net 100k between them. The GOP would have to make up those votes from somewhere else, but it's unclear where at this point.

Unless the GOP starts making serious inroads with Black voters, which doesn't look likely based on DeKalb and Fulton precinct results (Warnock pulled almost Obama level numbers in places like Lithonia and the West End) I don't see where they find them. The Virginianization is almost complete here.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Delicious:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVxM9SaW8jI

[Antonio the Sixth]

So assuming that all the votes are in except for provisionals, this is how the electorate broke down.

Early In Person
Warnock+7.2 -> Warnock+15.59
2276270 -> 1716541 (-24.59%)

Mail-in
Warnock+37.17 -> Warnock+28.4
245935 -> 188380 (-23.4%)

Election Day
Walker+15.49 -> Walker+13.77
1410749 -> 1630612 (+15.58%)

So the electorate was (excluding provisionals), 57.88% Early, 6.25% Mail, 35.87% Election-Day back in November. Yesterday it was 48.55% Early, 5.33% Mail, 46.12% Election Day.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It was really nice to have no political phone calls, texts, emails, ads, or flyers today.

[Adam Griffin]

Jim Martin definitely won more counties in 2008 than Warnock did this year.

If we're comparing runoff-to-runoff, then no. If we're comparing GE to GE, then yes:

Code:

42	Martin 2008 GE
28	Warnock 2022 GE

29	Martin 2008 RO
30	Warnock 2022 RO

Even comparing runoff to runoff, though, we're talking about Warnock netting just one county while improving his statewide margin over Martin by 18 points!

What would a swing map between GE 2008-2022 look like outside of Atlanta?

25 counties swung D, 134 swung R. I'll map it out soon enough, but:

3 Largest Swings (2008-SEN GE vs 2022-SEN GE):
Chattooga: R+47.59
Murray: R+43.72
Telfair: R+42.98

3 Largest Swings to Warnock (2008-SEN GE vs 2022-SEN GE):
Rockdale: D+37.02
Henry: D+34.19
Gwinnett: D+30.75

[Adam Griffin]

So assuming that all the votes are in except for provisionals, this is how the electorate broke down.

Early In Person
Warnock+7.2 -> Warnock+15.59
2276270 -> 1716541 (-24.59%)

Mail-in
Warnock+37.17 -> Warnock+28.4
245935 -> 188380 (-23.4%)

Election Day
Walker+15.49 -> Walker+13.77
1410749 -> 1630612 (+15.58%)

So the electorate was (excluding provisionals), 57.88% Early, 6.25% Mail, 35.87% Election-Day back in November. Yesterday it was 48.55% Early, 5.33% Mail, 46.12% Election Day.

So Walker won total EV by 17 points and Walker won ED by 14 points (i.e. less than he did in the GE). I think I mentioned this earlier today yesterday, but that is incredibly embarrassing for Republicans!

[Figueira]

For all the talk about north Georgia rurals swinging to Walker, that's probably the area where Kemp would have the greatest effect on getting those skeptical of Walker to pull the lever of him. His purported "operation" was probably strongest there.

As for the precincts of counties, how are you all getting them? The SOS downloads aren't working for me.

Where was his "operation" in the general then?

[Florida Man for Crime]

Biden's approval rating or asking if people want him to run again are not really relevant here.

It is certainly 120% relevant to whether he is responsible for Dems doing relatively well in the midterms lmao. Bill Clinton in 1998 for instance had good approvals when Dems did relatively well in the 1998 midterms, so you can much more plausibly say that he helped.

Biden was the one who refused to back down in making election integrity and fighting for democracy, along with abortion rights, a central theme to the midterm elections. He literally did a massive speech on it the week before the election. Turns out, it was incredibly prescient. You can't just remove him from this and say, hey, you oversaw this election and determined a lot of the ultimate messaging, but your approval was only 44% so we're not giving you any credit.

The way you are talking about it, it sounds like you are trying to imply Trump's coup attempt and Dobbs were not issues until Biden mentioned them, and that people cared about them only because Biden mentioned them.

I don't know your age etc, but in case you are too young to remember much from previous Presidents, I can assure you that Obama for instance made plenty of "massive speeches" before the 2010 and 2014 elections, which barely moved the needle. This was not because Obama was a bad speaker in comparison to Biden, a bad President, or that he was not talking about important issues that people cared about. Rather it is because Presidents are not omnipotent demigods and are not, in general, responsible for everything that happens in the country.

Your argument is just as silly - and for precisely the same reasons - as Republicans who like to pretend that Biden is singlehandedly responsible for global inflation.

To try and act like he is on the same level as Trump is ludicrous.

Honestly, what are you talking about??? I never said anything of the sort.

Biden has objectively been an incredibly strong first time president, but he just should not run again, when nearly every other first termer has because.... reasons? That line of thinking is ridiculous.

Whether Biden should or should not run again and what reasons he may or may not have to do so is utterly irrelevant to the question of whether midterm voters thought he should run again. When asked the question, a clear supermajority said no. You can spin that however you want, but it is a simple fact. If midterm voters were voting D because they liked Biden so much, it stands to reason that fewer of them would have said that.

And incidentally, there are also other similar/related questions from the exit polls which also do not support your argument at all, like this:

https://www.cnn.com/election/2022/exit-polls/national-results/house/0



You might also find it interesting to compare to e.g. 2014:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/2014/us/house/exitpoll/



hmmm those look awfully similar, don't they? Maybe it will make you think a bit.

[Adam Griffin]

What would a swing map between GE 2008-2022 look like outside of Atlanta?

Here we go (Atlas swing colors): R-swinging counties in this comparison comprise 35% of the state's population; D-swingers obviously comprise 65%.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::125d1378-404a-427a-a085-a05c63aab7f3

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

This guy really needs to join Atlas.

https://twitter.com/NickAdamsinUSA/status/1600350656736403456

If he means by physical strength alone, he's probably right. Say what you want about his mental fitness, Hershel Walker has always been a workout warrior.

It's Nick Adams, someone who has in the duration of my Peloton ride tweeted that eating at Hooters is the biggest flex an "alpha" can have, gotten mad that almonds aren't female, and posted a meme of himself with laser eyes.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/peltzmadeline/status/1600559089511038976

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

https://twitter.com/peltzmadeline/status/1600559089511038976

Womp womp.

[Inmate Trump]

Delicious:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVxM9SaW8jI

They’re now lamenting about Republican voters not using early voting or mail-in ballots.

Just incredible.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So assuming that all the votes are in except for provisionals, this is how the electorate broke down.

Early In Person
Warnock+7.2 -> Warnock+15.59
2276270 -> 1716541 (-24.59%)

Mail-in
Warnock+37.17 -> Warnock+28.4
245935 -> 188380 (-23.4%)

Election Day
Walker+15.49 -> Walker+13.77
1410749 -> 1630612 (+15.58%)

So the electorate was (excluding provisionals), 57.88% Early, 6.25% Mail, 35.87% Election-Day back in November. Yesterday it was 48.55% Early, 5.33% Mail, 46.12% Election Day.

So Walker won total EV by 17 points and Walker won ED by 14 points (i.e. less than he did in the GE). I think I mentioned this earlier today yesterday, but that is incredibly embarrassing for Republicans!

I'm guessing what happened is that a bunch of Democrats weren't able to vote early because of the shorter time period, and voted on Election Day instead. That's probably why we saw higher election-day turnout than expected, and also why it didn't benefit Walker like we expected it would.

What puzzles me though is the big Republican swing in mail-in votes. They saw the same decline as early votes so it's weird they trended in the opposite direction. Any idea what happened there?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Also is there anywhere we can find the demographic breakdowns (age, race, gender etc.) of early vs election-day votes, and how they compare with the same data for November?

[Adam Griffin]

I'm guessing what happened is that a bunch of Democrats weren't able to vote early because of the shorter time period, and voted on Election Day instead. That's probably why we saw higher election-day turnout than expected, and also why it didn't benefit Walker like we expected it would.

Honestly, I called it more than once in the final days:

And yes: maybe a good chunk of people are staying at home until Election Day. I still think that such an effect would also strengthen Warnock's prospects, given that long lines weren't a thing outside a handful of predominantly urban Democratic counties. If this dynamic of waiting due to schedule restrictions and long lines turns out to be true, it's more likely to dilute the ED margins Walker can expect rather than enhance them.

Is there any reason to expect ED turnout to outpace November?

The only real scenario I could see where this materializes is if long wait times during EV in the metro led to more Democrats waiting to vote until ED. I suppose absent of that we could still see that happen, but just barely (for reference, ED ballots cast in the Senate race in November = 1,413,719).

...but I never expected ED turnout to be that large (maybe 1.5m at max) and/or that weak for Walker margin-wise. ED turnout almost outpaced EV and Walker still underperformed any reasonable estimation I fathomed! If you told me prior that ED was going to be 1.7m - even with my suspicion that metro Ds were waiting to vote - I would have likely predicted a Walker victory regardless. Hilariously, though, Walker did worse with runoff ED vote than with GE ED vote! I never would have expected such!

What puzzles me though is the big Republican swing in mail-in votes. They saw the same decline as early votes so it's weird they trended in the opposite direction. Any idea what happened there?

64.2-35.8 in the runoff (Warnock +28.4) versus 67.6-30.5 in the GE (Warnock +37.1) is fairly explainable by two dynamics, I think.

First, every voter who is 65+, disabled or a veteran who requests a mail ballot for a single contest/election can automatically receive mail ballots for any and all future elections in a particular cycle (for instance, those who requested and voted by mail in the 2022 May primary who fit said categories automatically received ballots for 2022 primary runoff, general election and general runoff without applying). Anyone outside of these particular groups would have been required to apply again, and with a 4-week period, many of them simply did not want to risk it (or applied too late).

Second, the Democratic Party, the Warnock campaign and all other affiliated groups really downplayed ABM for the runoff given the post-2021 electoral changes in the state and the new shorter window for runoffs. For instance, I applied for my mail ballot online the morning of Nov 9, but my ballot could not be legally mailed until Nov 17 (new GAGOP legislative restrictions at work) and even though I mailed it back ASAP - thanks to the holiday - it wasn't received and processed until Nov 28 by my county board of elections via the SoS master absentee file (which maybe 1,000 nerdy politicos in Georgia know how to access and view) and it wasn't formally recorded as received by SoS via their public-friendly My Voter Page until Dec 2 (the last day of early in-person voting). In theory, by the time I - assuming I was a relatively high-info voting normie - could have definitively confirmed that my mail ballot was received/accepted (or not), I would have had no other choice than to vote on Election Day.

Combine a predominantly senior citizen mail electorate (GA has a near 50-point gap between the under-30 and 65+ crowds; thanks, demography!) due to aforementioned factors with too little time to properly process & handle ABM logistics from a campaign standpoint, and the 9-point ABM swing makes a lot more sense. Coupled with more people who did vote by mail in November simply unsure of how it'd work in the first runoff since said legislative changes (i.e. look at those weak ED numbers for GOP due to DEMs voting the day of; in any other scenario, Walker should have won ED by >20 points), and it makes perfect sense.

[Adam Griffin]

Delicious:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVxM9SaW8jI

They’re now lamenting about Republican voters not using early voting or mail-in ballots.

Just incredible.

Very hilarious given that as late as 2014, of the 4 voting categories in GA (mail vote, ED vote, early in-person vote and provisional vote), mail vote was the GOP's best category!

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1600599089196195841

[wbrocks67]

Among GA-01, GA-06, GA-11, and GA-12, which are the best long term prospects for Dems?

[wbrocks67]

Biden's approval rating or asking if people want him to run again are not really relevant here.

It is certainly 120% relevant to whether he is responsible for Dems doing relatively well in the midterms lmao. Bill Clinton in 1998 for instance had good approvals when Dems did relatively well in the 1998 midterms, so you can much more plausibly say that he helped.

Biden was the one who refused to back down in making election integrity and fighting for democracy, along with abortion rights, a central theme to the midterm elections. He literally did a massive speech on it the week before the election. Turns out, it was incredibly prescient. You can't just remove him from this and say, hey, you oversaw this election and determined a lot of the ultimate messaging, but your approval was only 44% so we're not giving you any credit.

The way you are talking about it, it sounds like you are trying to imply Trump's coup attempt and Dobbs were not issues until Biden mentioned them, and that people cared about them only because Biden mentioned them.

I don't know your age etc, but in case you are too young to remember much from previous Presidents, I can assure you that Obama for instance made plenty of "massive speeches" before the 2010 and 2014 elections, which barely moved the needle. This was not because Obama was a bad speaker in comparison to Biden, a bad President, or that he was not talking about important issues that people cared about. Rather it is because Presidents are not omnipotent demigods and are not, in general, responsible for everything that happens in the country.

Your argument is just as silly - and for precisely the same reasons - as Republicans who like to pretend that Biden is singlehandedly responsible for global inflation.

To try and act like he is on the same level as Trump is ludicrous.

Honestly, what are you talking about??? I never said anything of the sort.

Biden has objectively been an incredibly strong first time president, but he just should not run again, when nearly every other first termer has because.... reasons? That line of thinking is ridiculous.

Whether Biden should or should not run again and what reasons he may or may not have to do so is utterly irrelevant to the question of whether midterm voters thought he should run again. When asked the question, a clear supermajority said no. You can spin that however you want, but it is a simple fact. If midterm voters were voting D because they liked Biden so much, it stands to reason that fewer of them would have said that.

And incidentally, there are also other similar/related questions from the exit polls which also do not support your argument at all, like this:

https://www.cnn.com/election/2022/exit-polls/national-results/house/0



You might also find it interesting to compare to e.g. 2014:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/2014/us/house/exitpoll/



hmmm those look awfully similar, don't they? Maybe it will make you think a bit.

You're literally missing the entire point. Never said Biden was solely responsible for how well Dems did (no president ever is) but the point here is that Biden IS the president, and he DID oversee a spectacular midterm performance by Democrats. By default, he gets some of the credit for that. Not going to bother going into nonsense where he has no bearing on any of that. Biden continues to be underestimated consistently, and you seem keen on doing that.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1600599089196195841

GA-10 was Trump + 23.4 so that’s a pretty heavy swing, perhaps due to some black spillover in south Atlanta? It’d be funny if that’s the seat Rs need to end up being most worried about in GA.

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1600599089196195841

GA-10 was Trump + 23.4 so that’s a pretty heavy swing, perhaps due to some black spillover in south Atlanta? It’d be funny if that’s the seat Rs need to end up being most worried about in GA.

6 and 11 look like they will almost certainly be in play by the end of the decade. Even if Republicans control redistricting again after 2030, it’s hard to see them not conceding Dems another seat in this general area.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1600599089196195841

GA-10 was Trump + 23.4 so that’s a pretty heavy swing, perhaps due to some black spillover in south Atlanta? It’d be funny if that’s the seat Rs need to end up being most worried about in GA.

6 and 11 look like they will almost certainly be in play by the end of the decade. Even if Republicans control redistricting again after 2030, it’s hard to see them not conceding Dems another seat in this general area.

I wonder if/when the Georgia GOP starts pushing for a commission.