GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[Person Man]

The polling averages said 3%. He got 3%. Maybe Walker overperformed by a half of a percent. I think he did better than the most median run, but he didn’t get the 60%ile timeline  timeline when he probably needed the 90th.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No word from 2016, or Hollywood Rs just keep underestimate BIDEN

[Adam Griffin]

The one good thing Walker did at the end of it all was that he gave a concise concession speech rather than claiming fraud and the like. It's sad that's a bar we even have to measure candidates up against, but hey...it is what it is.

[swf541]

https://twitter.com/atelections/status/1600329179068649473

Dems also won two in Forsyth apparently.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

GA is a blue state Rs overperform I'm Nov if Eday was held today after SSM we would of kept both chambers and netted OH, NC and UT obviously

[Agafin]

This is the best possible result for never trump republicans and presidential hopefuls other than Trump. Trump is further weakened by this loss but at the same time, the bottom didn't fall like some where predicting which shows that the state is still winnable (unlike Virginia). Like I previously said, Kemp Vs Ossof 2026 starts out as lean R.

[Adam Griffin]

Also, I think there could be up to 9k mail ballots yet to be counted (including overseas/military, which must arrive by CoB on Friday), solely based on the 90% return rate from November (minus cancellations and spoiled ballots). Ninety percent of the 221,500 ABMs remaining for this runoff = 199,350. SoS currently shows 189,954. Any from this category will likely go 60/40 Warnock.

Additionally, there could be up to another 3k provisionals we don't yet know about (2,970 in November), which won't be formally counted until after CoB on Friday. These will go 2:1 Warnock.

Mail ballots coupled with provisionals, this could tilt Warnock to 2.9 rounded or slightly more.

This doesn't factor in any in-person ballots that remain anywhere in the state (counties are supposed to keep counting all non-provisional/overseas/military ballots until done, but also have a stricter deadline to count by 5 PM ET today/Wednesday or face investigation by the SoS). There may be up to another 5k of these floating about, but I suspect they're in GOP areas.

[Tekken_Guy]

This is the best possible result for never trump republicans and presidential hopefuls other than Trump. Trump is further weakened by this loss but at the same time, the bottom didn't fall like some where predicting which shows that the state is still winnable (unlike Virginia). Like I previously said, Kemp Vs Ossof 2026 starts out as lean R.

No it does not. Ossoff would be favored because of trends continuing. And I don’t think Kemp will ever actually run for Senate.

[Adam Griffin]

2021 Runoff: Warnock +93272 votes (4.48m votes)
2022 Runoff: Warnock +85369 votes (3.51m votes *TBD)

Warnock has officially crossed the rubicon:

2021 Runoff: Warnock +93272 votes (4.48m votes)
2022 Runoff: Warnock +97597 votes (3.54m votes)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kemp would of clearly lost the runoff, but WARNOCK was definitely helped by Abrams anyways fair tradeoff

[Epaminondas]

Washington and Baldwin flipped since the GE.

Had Biden won them in 2020, or is this the most ever counties carried by a Dem since 2002?

[Хahar 🤔]

Washington and Baldwin flipped since the GE.

Had Biden won them in 2020, or is this the most ever counties carried by a Dem since 2002?

Jim Martin definitely won more counties in 2008 than Warnock did this year.

[Adam Griffin]

November 2022 Senatorial - December 2022 Senatorial Runoff swing map (Atlas style):

Only 2 counties saw Warnock do more than 5 points better than November (including Walker's home county); only 11 counties saw Walker do more than 2 points better than November (and only 1 of those - Quitman - was greater than 3 points in his Walker's favor).

[Epaminondas]

Washington and Baldwin flipped since the GE.

Had Biden won them in 2020, or is this the most ever counties carried by a Dem since 2002?

Jim Martin definitely won more counties in 2008 than Warnock did this year.

Are you sure? Here's the map.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/DanaHoule/status/1600375402878435328

[Хahar 🤔]

Washington and Baldwin flipped since the GE.

Had Biden won them in 2020, or is this the most ever counties carried by a Dem since 2002?

Jim Martin definitely won more counties in 2008 than Warnock did this year.

Are you sure? Here's the map.

Yes, I am sure. Martin carried 42 counties in the general election, plus one that was an exact tie. My count of current results has Warnock at 30 counties. This isn't even close. You don't even need to count them to figure this out; a quick look at the map will make it obvious.

[Adam Griffin]

Washington and Baldwin flipped since the GE.

Had Biden won them in 2020, or is this the most ever counties carried by a Dem since 2002?

Jim Martin definitely won more counties in 2008 than Warnock did this year.

If we're comparing runoff-to-runoff, then no. If we're comparing GE to GE, then yes:

Code:

42	Martin 2008 GE
28	Warnock 2022 GE

29	Martin 2008 RO
30	Warnock 2022 RO

Even comparing runoff to runoff, though, we're talking about Warnock netting just one county while improving his statewide margin over Martin by 18 points!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Isakson won around 15-20% of Black vote in Georgia when he won Senate race in 2016

Yeah. It's incredible.

[Agafin]

This is the best possible result for never trump republicans and presidential hopefuls other than Trump. Trump is further weakened by this loss but at the same time, the bottom didn't fall like some where predicting which shows that the state is still winnable (unlike Virginia). Like I previously said, Kemp Vs Ossof 2026 starts out as lean R.

No it does not. Ossoff would be favored because of trends continuing. And I don’t think Kemp will ever actually run for Senate.

You are vastly overestimating the impact of trends over candidate quality. Which trends did you see between 2020 and 2022 in Georgia? Ultimately, Warnock is going to win by about the same margin as in 2020 (runoff) despite an atrocious candidate.

[Inmate Trump]

I’m so happy!
Gonna total fangirl it up and buy some Warnock merch.

Did Walker ever concede? (I had to go to sleep early)

[Agafin]

I’m so happy!
Gonna total fangirl it up and buy some Warnock merch.

Did Walker ever concede? (I had to go to sleep early)

Almost as soon as it was called. A good thing for democracy. Lake somehow is afterall the most unhinged of the Trump picked candidates.

[Podgy the Bear]

I’m so happy!
Gonna total fangirl it up and buy some Warnock merch.

Did Walker ever concede? (I had to go to sleep early)

Up to a 100,000 vote and a close to 3 percentage point lead now.

Relatively speaking, Walker's "concession" speech was probably the best one he did on the campaign.  For the MAGA Republicans, it leaves Kari Lake as the pathetic, bitter shrew that she has shown herself to be.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wonderful! Georgia reelected a truly admirable man to the Senate for the next 6 years. This was closer than it had any right to be (and that I expected - at this point I was beginning to buy the hype of a Warnock+4/5 result) but still the biggest victory for a Democrat in Georgia for federal office since, what, the late 90s? At the very least, it shows that 2020 wasn't a fluke, though these gains will remain shaky until we break the Republican trifecta.

[TodayJunior]

So this version of the gop is dead nationally.  I think it’s safe to say that.

[Epaminondas]

Jim Martin definitely won more counties in 2008 than Warnock did this year.

If we're comparing runoff-to-runoff, then no. If we're comparing GE to GE, then yes:

Code:

42	Martin 2008 GE
28	Warnock 2022 GE

29	Martin 2008 RO
30	Warnock 2022 RO

Even comparing runoff to runoff, though, we're talking about Warnock netting just one county while improving his statewide margin over Martin by 18 points!

What would a swing map between GE 2008-2022 look like outside of Atlanta?

these gains will remain shaky until we break the Republican trifecta.

How well could the GOP Georgiamander survive the decade? More Virginia or Wisconsin?