GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[Holmes]

Who tf cares about what the needle says anymore? This is so stupid.

[Gass3268]

The bleed continues in the suburban counties of the smaller cities. While Warnock did not break 40% in Columbia County, his 37.3% is the highest any Democrat has gotten there since the three incumbent Democrat statewide row officers won re-election in 2006. Similarly in Houston County, he is the first Democrat to get within single digits since 2006.

To say nothing of the much talked about Fayette and Forsyth counties. Fayette undoubtedly flips in 2024, no matter who the GOP nominee is.

And then we move to Spalding!

[Adam Griffin]

The fact that Walker is losing with what will probably be 1.7m ED votes is way more embarrassing than some can yet fathom. I only considered this level of ED turnout if urban Ds saw the long lines and just waited to vote until ED as a result.

Walker is currently winning ED vote 57.2-42.8 (+14.4 points). How embarrassing. THAT IS LESS THAN HE WON THE ELECTION DAY VOTE BY IN NOVEMBER (15.4 points; 56.3-40.9).

Urban Democrats didn't want to wait in line - and they surged the polls on Election Day.

This doesn't even factor in that most of the [ED] vote outstanding comes from Fulton and Dekalb, which will be well in excess of 50% Warnock!

[South Dakota Democrat]

@ProudModerate2,
Warnock will not get 2.9!

Deal?

You do realize it's the exclamation points, in particular, that make you sound unhinged, right?

[ProudModerate2]

The New York Times ("The Needle" page) is still estimating a +2.9 margin of victory for Warnock (when it's all counted and done for), even though his margin is currently showing +1.7.

Seems there are still many votes to be counted in large, high-Dem counties/jurisdictions.

The Needle is crap with that Estimation.
How does Warnock get a 2.9 margin if only 46,000 Votes are left Statewide per NBC!

Cause they are in DeKalb lol. And there's likely more than that. Are you this ignorant?

User 2016 ...
Just over the last 45 minutes or so, the margin has been updated and is now at +2.4
So 2.9 is almost there.

Edit to add:  2.9 is an estimate. The NY Times page has updated the number to 2.8
But it any case it will probably fall some where between 2.4 and 2.9 when it is all counted.

Almost all of the Votes are IN now. NBC just like I did estimates that 17,000 Ballots are remaining Statewide. How does Warnock get to 2.9, tell me? He would need another 50K Votes to get there.

Dude,
The margin jumped from 1.7 when you first started your conniption fit, to 2.4
That's a swing of 0.7
Do you get it now?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

"Believe in our Constitution. Believe in our elected officials most of all." - Herschel Walker

So the trend continues of every Republican not named Donald Trump and not in the state of Arizona being a relatively gracious loser.

He did also say “the numbers don’t add up” before quickly moving on.

[fluffypanther19]

Tonight was a good night. I hope the republicans do some serious and I mean serious soul searching. We need 2 viable serious political parties and the republicans just aren’t one right now. If not, well us dems can govern decently enough.

[emailking]

He only won by 2, that's less than most were predicting, hmm

[ProudModerate2]

@ProudModerate2,
Warnock will not get 2.9!
Deal?

Are you even reading all my posts.
The NY Times page has changed. It has changed all night. Their last estimate is 2.8 (no longer 2.9)
But as the counting is near the end, their number will become more and more accurate to happen, as they get to the finish line in the count.
It's going to be somewhere between 2.4 and 2.9

[Roll Roons]

"Believe in our Constitution. Believe in our elected officials most of all." - Herschel Walker

So the trend continues of every Republican not named Donald Trump and not in the state of Arizona being a relatively gracious loser.

He did also say “the numbers don’t add up” before quickly moving on.

I think what he meant was that his team knew the math wouldn't work out in his favor.

[John Dule]

"Believe in our Constitution. Believe in our elected officials most of all." - Herschel Walker

So the trend continues of every Republican not named Donald Trump and not in the state of Arizona being a relatively gracious loser.

He did also say “the numbers don’t add up” before quickly moving on.

I think what he meant was that his team knew the math wouldn't work out in his favor.

Either that or he was expressing his frustration with his own arithmetic skills.

[emailking]

I took a break for a while, so I missed the last 10 pages or so.
But have there been any trump Tweets or other social media comments directly from him, regarding HIS Walker loss?

He said this.

OUR COUNTRY IS IN BIG TROUBLE. WHAT A MESS!

But not clear if he's talking about the race or the conviction today.

[ProudModerate2]

I took a break for a while, so I missed the last 10 pages or so.
But have there been any trump Tweets or other social media comments directly from him, regarding HIS Walker loss?

He said this.

OUR COUNTRY IS IN BIG TROUBLE. WHAT A MESS!

But not clear if he's talking about the race or the conviction today.

Did he really say that?
OMG.

[kwabbit]

The bleed continues in the suburban counties of the smaller cities. While Warnock did not break 40% in Columbia County, his 37.3% is the highest any Democrat has gotten there since the three incumbent Democrat statewide row officers won re-election in 2006. Similarly in Houston County, he is the first Democrat to get within single digits since 2006.

To say nothing of the much talked about Fayette and Forsyth counties. Fayette undoubtedly flips in 2024, no matter who the GOP nominee is.

And then we move to Spalding!

It'll have to stop soon, right? Like how far from Atlanta are they going to be building these suburban developments?  The Southern suburbs are already not very dense, there's plenty of room.

[ProudModerate2]

Warnock at 2.4% margin,  can he get the last 0.5% and make 2016's day?

And just like that .... it is now ...... 2.6

[ProudModerate2]

https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1600347885291413504


I love Biden.

[NOVA Green]

On MSNBC just heard that Fulton will dump all of their remaining EV's at the top of the hour and finalize counting sometime around 1:00 AM to 2:00 EM Eastern Time...

The top of the hour should be enough for me to break out the bourbon.

Already sipping my Canadian Whiskey and my wife her Tito's Vodka....

All these election threads have shown how much more sophisticated drinkers Atlas users are than me.

Not to mention, wealthier than me.

Can't speak to all that, but just perhaps as a man and my wife (Late '40s and early '60s) just happen to have enough dough to be able to afford our booze while living in a tiny two bedroom apartment living in a WWC Factory town in Trump Country in the Mid-Valley.

Likely for all the money I have spent on Booze for us over the years, more than able to purchase at least a small manufactured home, relatively close to my Factory Job.

Spend your money wisely young Jedi's!''

As promised tones of "Whiskey in the Jar", for the Rev. Warnock's win.

Toss in a bit of some old Civil Rights songs from back in the dayz... sorta mixed up with a bit of NOVA GREEN Wax on Tracks DJ Mix...

[Xing]

https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1600347885291413504


I love Biden.

Fitting, since Dark Brandon was the first to turn Georgia to the dark side.

[emailking]

How is the margin growing so much if it's 99% in?

[Roronoa D. Law]

How is the margin growing so much if it's 99% in?

Dekalb just finish. Cobb has a couple of precints left and I think that's it.

[Adam Griffin]

He only won by 2, that's less than most were predicting, hmm

This is because R-ED turnout was slightly higher than expected - but so was D-ED turnout as well. Walker right now has won ED turnout by a point less than he did one month ago: even if 100k+ extra Democrats turned out who didn't want to wait in line, enough extra Rs did as well, thereby diluting the EV share of the electorate. It's possible Warnock comes very close to a 3-point lead once all votes are counted.

[Adam Griffin]

The bleed continues in the suburban counties of the smaller cities. While Warnock did not break 40% in Columbia County, his 37.3% is the highest any Democrat has gotten there since the three incumbent Democrat statewide row officers won re-election in 2006. Similarly in Houston County, he is the first Democrat to get within single digits since 2006.

To say nothing of the much talked about Fayette and Forsyth counties. Fayette undoubtedly flips in 2024, no matter who the GOP nominee is.

And then we move to Spalding!

Not to be too serious, but Spalding is too far from the base sprawl & also pretty insulated due to interstate development to undergo huge demographic change. Most of the equivalent development mileage-wise from the core either lies very close to an interstate or some former toll-road equivalent (see: GA-400).

Case in point:

[Skill and Chance]

The bleed continues in the suburban counties of the smaller cities. While Warnock did not break 40% in Columbia County, his 37.3% is the highest any Democrat has gotten there since the three incumbent Democrat statewide row officers won re-election in 2006. Similarly in Houston County, he is the first Democrat to get within single digits since 2006.

To say nothing of the much talked about Fayette and Forsyth counties. Fayette undoubtedly flips in 2024, no matter who the GOP nominee is.

And then we move to Spalding!

Not to be too serious, but Spalding is too far from the base sprawl & also pretty insulated due to interstate development to undergo huge demographic change. Most of the equivalent development mileage-wise from the core either lies very close to an interstate or some former toll-road equivalent (see: GA-400).

Case in point:

That looks seriously rural LOL.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Warnock will win by 10+ Points. The Question is when will the Race be called. My guess between 8 and 9pm ET!

This is the only time I can ever recall seeing you make a prediction that is more Dem friendly than the conventional wisdom.

Why now?

Is it because you have dumped Trump for DeSantis and you figure if Walker loses badly it will reflect poorly on Trump and ultimately help DeSantis?

He wants to own the libs by pretending Warnock underperforms.

The Polls overestimated Democratic Support once again in this Runoff just like in 2021.

Warnock will win maybe 51.2 % to 48.8 % so a 2.4 Percentage Point Win.

After tonights Performance JON OSSOFF for me is a sure GONER in 2026 regardless if it's a Biden or Republican Midterm bcuz he won't be able to replicate the Warnock Coalition from 2021 and 2022.

Ossoff is probably the luckiest Man in the Senate. The Reason: Warnock dragged him over the line in 2021.

[Adam Griffin]

The bleed continues in the suburban counties of the smaller cities. While Warnock did not break 40% in Columbia County, his 37.3% is the highest any Democrat has gotten there since the three incumbent Democrat statewide row officers won re-election in 2006. Similarly in Houston County, he is the first Democrat to get within single digits since 2006.

To say nothing of the much talked about Fayette and Forsyth counties. Fayette undoubtedly flips in 2024, no matter who the GOP nominee is.

And then we move to Spalding!

Not to be too serious, but Spalding is too far from the base sprawl & also pretty insulated due to interstate development to undergo huge demographic change. Most of the equivalent development mileage-wise from the core either lies very close to an interstate or some former toll-road equivalent (see: GA-400).

Case in point:

That looks seriously rural LOL.

It is: no man's land. 4% of Georgia lives here:



If it blows other peoples' minds, only 10% of Georgia lives here:



And...20% of Georgia lives here: