GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[kwabbit]

I guess we can expect a bunch more GA polls on the way....

Who's planning to release? Or just bc the scandal gives them a reason to...

[wbrocks67]

I guess we can expect a bunch more GA polls on the way....

Who's planning to release? Or just bc the scandal gives them a reason to...

The latter - I'm gonna assume most outlets will want to get clicks from what the polls are saying about the scandal

[GeorgiaModerate]

One problem that Republicans have is that nobody under age 50 actually remembers the fabulous games he played as a running back with Georgia. It's not like it's Todd Gurley on the ballot.

This.  One of my kids is a grad student at UGA.  As an undergrad, he had a student job that involved selling UGA gear at Sanford Stadium during home football games.  At the beginning of this year's campaign, I mentioned to him that Herschel Walker was probably running for Senate.  He replied "who's that?"

[Хahar 🤔]

One problem that Republicans have is that nobody under age 50 actually remembers the fabulous games he played as a running back with Georgia. It's not like it's Todd Gurley on the ballot.

This.  One of my kids is a grad student at UGA.  As an undergrad, he had a student job that involved selling UGA gear at Sanford Stadium during home football games.  At the beginning of this year's campaign, I mentioned to him that Herschel Walker was probably running for Senate.  He replied "who's that?"

When I was a graduate student at Tech, one day there was an information session for an engineering job out in Villa Rica. It wasn't really my field at all, but I didn't have anything better to do and there was free food, so I showed up. The presenter mentioned that he was a Tech alumnus from the class of 1990 and asked if anyone knew what was special about that. There was an uncomfortably long pause before I raised my hand and saved the room full of undergraduates from embarrassment by saying what exactly happened at Georgia Tech in 1990.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

One problem that Republicans have is that nobody under age 50 actually remembers the fabulous games he played as a running back with Georgia. It's not like it's Todd Gurley on the ballot.

This.  One of my kids is a grad student at UGA.  As an undergrad, he had a student job that involved selling UGA gear at Sanford Stadium during home football games.  At the beginning of this year's campaign, I mentioned to him that Herschel Walker was probably running for Senate.  He replied "who's that?"

To be fair, nobody knows who any UGA players are

(Go Horns!)

[Inmate Trump]

Am I right that Walker canceled the debate with Warnock?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Am I right that Walker canceled the debate with Warnock?

AFAIK, the Oct. 14 debate (the one that Walker proposed, televised by NewsNation) is still on.  Walker never accepted the three debates sponsored by mainstream outlets, while Warnock did.  Last I heard, one of those was still planned to go on between Warnock and Chase Oliver, the Libertarian.

[If my soul was made of stone]

One problem that Republicans have is that nobody under age 50 actually remembers the fabulous games he played as a running back with Georgia. It's not like it's Todd Gurley on the ballot.

If Bronz had never been banned, we'd all be at brunch with Senator Joe Flacco right now instead of this burnout delirium.

[Frodo]

Following the 2016 Post-Access Hollywood Trump playbook, the Christian Right is taking a strictly transactional stance, making clear it doesn't care about the allegations so long as Walker delivers the goods if he is elected:

Walker’s Christian fans unfazed by abortion revelations
The anti-abortion GOP Senate nominee's supporters say they care more about his policies than about his behavior.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Following the 2016 Post-Access Hollywood Trump playbook, the Christian Right is taking a strictly transactional stance, making clear it doesn't care about the allegations so long as Walker delivers the goods if he is elected:

Walker’s Christian fans unfazed by abortion revelations
The anti-abortion GOP Senate nominee's supporters say they care more about his policies than about his behavior.

He could abort someone on Fifth Avenue and he still wouldn’t lose any voters.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Following the 2016 Post-Access Hollywood Trump playbook, the Christian Right is taking a strictly transactional stance, making clear it doesn't care about the allegations so long as Walker delivers the goods if he is elected:

Walker’s Christian fans unfazed by abortion revelations
The anti-abortion GOP Senate nominee's supporters say they care more about his policies than about his behavior.

He could abort someone on Fifth Avenue and he still wouldn’t lose any voters.

The Republican Party believes in banning abortions, with an exception for the life of the Party.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/iarnsdorf/status/1578191240260366336

[Storr]

Following the 2016 Post-Access Hollywood Trump playbook, the Christian Right is taking a strictly transactional stance, making clear it doesn't care about the allegations so long as Walker delivers the goods if he is elected:

Walker’s Christian fans unfazed by abortion revelations
The anti-abortion GOP Senate nominee's supporters say they care more about his policies than about his behavior.

He could abort someone on Fifth Avenue and he still wouldn’t lose any voters.

The Republican Party believes in banning abortions, with an exception for the life of the Party.

This could end up like Bill Clinton where many people will be willing to forgive Walker for the indiscretion, but won't forgive him for lying (from the Politico article):

"“It was 2009, it was a long time ago. His views can change,” Bulloch said of the alleged abortion. “But it bothers me that he lies. He seems like he lies a lot.”"

Or maybe because of Trump, everyone is so accustomed to constant lying nobody will care...

[forsythvoter]

My sense is Republicans are not going to stop supporting Walker (my very R dad even told me it's a non-issue since it has nothing to do with policy-making), but I don't think that's particularly surprising. Where there is actually quite a bit of movement on the ground in my neighborhood and family / friend circles is among a good number of undecided, mostly unaffiliated, voters for which Walker's scandals have either resurfaced the issue of abortion as top of mind or feel like Walker can't be trusted. I can name at least 3 such people I talked to this week that fall into this camp. I suspect the impact of this week might be that late deciding voters break disproportionately towards Warnock rather than many voters actually switching their votes.

Following the 2016 Post-Access Hollywood Trump playbook, the Christian Right is taking a strictly transactional stance, making clear it doesn't care about the allegations so long as Walker delivers the goods if he is elected:

Walker’s Christian fans unfazed by abortion revelations
The anti-abortion GOP Senate nominee's supporters say they care more about his policies than about his behavior.

[Lief 🗽]

https://twitter.com/SarahLongwell25/status/1578197739929624576

[Person Man]

My sense is Republicans are not going to stop supporting Walker (my very R dad even told me it's a non-issue since it has nothing to do with policy-making), but I don't think that's particularly surprising. Where there is actually quite a bit of movement on the ground in my neighborhood and family / friend circles is among a good number of undecided, mostly unaffiliated, voters for which Walker's scandals have either resurfaced the issue of abortion as top of mind or feel like Walker can't be trusted. I can name at least 3 such people I talked to this week that fall into this camp. I suspect the impact of this week might be that late deciding voters break disproportionately towards Warnock rather than many voters actually switching their votes.

Following the 2016 Post-Access Hollywood Trump playbook, the Christian Right is taking a strictly transactional stance, making clear it doesn't care about the allegations so long as Walker delivers the goods if he is elected:

Walker’s Christian fans unfazed by abortion revelations
The anti-abortion GOP Senate nominee's supporters say they care more about his policies than about his behavior.

Wasn’t that how Trump over-performed twice?

[Senator Incitatus]

[tweet]

Question about focus groups, and maybe an experienced user like Pollster can answer here: isn't it almost impossible to get a geographically representative sample in a state even as large as Georgia? I understand that they're not meant to be statistically representative, obviously, but it feels irresponsible to just report the state and not say where exactly this is: Athens? Atlanta?

[forsythvoter]

I don't think Trump really ever outperformed in GA; that was more in certain states in the Midwest and Industrial belt. If anything, Rs have underperformed polls in recent election cycles in GA. In general, I think politics are very polarized in GA so the undecided vote is truly more of a swing vote than a shy Trump / Walker vote.

My sense is Republicans are not going to stop supporting Walker (my very R dad even told me it's a non-issue since it has nothing to do with policy-making), but I don't think that's particularly surprising. Where there is actually quite a bit of movement on the ground in my neighborhood and family / friend circles is among a good number of undecided, mostly unaffiliated, voters for which Walker's scandals have either resurfaced the issue of abortion as top of mind or feel like Walker can't be trusted. I can name at least 3 such people I talked to this week that fall into this camp. I suspect the impact of this week might be that late deciding voters break disproportionately towards Warnock rather than many voters actually switching their votes.

Following the 2016 Post-Access Hollywood Trump playbook, the Christian Right is taking a strictly transactional stance, making clear it doesn't care about the allegations so long as Walker delivers the goods if he is elected:

Walker’s Christian fans unfazed by abortion revelations
The anti-abortion GOP Senate nominee's supporters say they care more about his policies than about his behavior.

Wasn’t that how Trump over-performed twice?

[forsythvoter]

I'd be curious to know as well. I for the record was not part of this focus group, but my wife and I would fit the profile really well, as would many of our friends. We live in the northern suburbs of Atlanta.

[tweet]

Question about focus groups, and maybe an experienced user like Pollster can answer here: isn't it almost impossible to get a geographically representative sample in a state even as large as Georgia? I understand that they're not meant to be statistically representative, obviously, but it feels irresponsible to just report the state and not say where exactly this is: Athens? Atlanta?

[GeorgiaModerate]

[tweet]

Question about focus groups, and maybe an experienced user like Pollster can answer here: isn't it almost impossible to get a geographically representative sample in a state even as large as Georgia? I understand that they're not meant to be statistically representative, obviously, but it feels irresponsible to just report the state and not say where exactly this is: Athens? Atlanta?

The most likely area to find a bunch of Trump 16 / Biden 20 voters is the Atlanta suburbs.

[Senator Incitatus]

[tweet]

Question about focus groups, and maybe an experienced user like Pollster can answer here: isn't it almost impossible to get a geographically representative sample in a state even as large as Georgia? I understand that they're not meant to be statistically representative, obviously, but it feels irresponsible to just report the state and not say where exactly this is: Athens? Atlanta?

The most likely area to find a bunch of Trump 16 / Biden 20 voters is the Atlanta suburbs.

That's my assumption but doesn't answer my question, which is about focus groups more generally.

[Pollster]

[tweet]

Question about focus groups, and maybe an experienced user like Pollster can answer here: isn't it almost impossible to get a geographically representative sample in a state even as large as Georgia? I understand that they're not meant to be statistically representative, obviously, but it feels irresponsible to just report the state and not say where exactly this is: Athens? Atlanta?

Yes. Focus groups usually never have more than 12 participants (and even that is large for a focus group) so it's impossible to be representative of anything, let alone geography in even a small state. Focus groups aren't designed to be representative and are intended only to be directional or informative, not predictive, and should never be the sole research tool used by any persuasive campaign (political or not). You will be hard pressed to find a focus group memo ever given to a client that doesn't have the words "qualitative takeaways are not statistically representative and should be confirmed with quantitative research before making high-stakes decisions" or something along those lines. That's part of what makes this focus group podcast (and Longwell's editorialization) so funny. There are a LOT of useful functions that focus groups provide, but what she's trying to do generally isn't it.

[Calthrina950]

This is going from bad to worse

Reporter: You said that if this did happen, there's nothing to be ashamed of.

Walker: Wait, I never said it.

Reporter: You said it this morning on Hugh Hewitt's show.

Republicans should cut Walker loose at this point, but they will not. Many of them are doubling down on their support for him, as they see Walker as a reliable vote for their policy priorities. This is precisely the reason why Trump overwhelmingly won the white evangelical vote, and the votes of most Republicans who did not like him personally.

They believed that policy was more important than morality. And this is why Walker will still garner ~45% or more of the vote in Georgia, and why the race could still be headed to a runoff. Why would a Republican voter abandon Walker for this scandal when they see Warnock and Democrats as promoting abortion on demand with taxpayer dollars?

This kind of goes to show that many of the most annoying pro-lifers like baseballcrank and his ilk at the National Review/Federalist are straight up lying when they say they think abortion is murdering a baby. I should know, I know many people who genuinely believe this. Like, I believe they think it's bad, but it is simply not the case that they genuinely believe that a zygote is equivalent to a baby.

The reason I know this is that they find it exceedingly easy to vote for someone who they ostensibly believe financed the murder of his infant child and is pretty transparently not repentant. Like, you can justify it if you believe that Warnock will kill more babies indirectly, but none of them seem particularly concerned about wrestling with this at all. I mean, check out this quote from David Harsanyi for the Federalist:

"Without the slightest hesitation, I would support a sociopathic constitutionalist, prone to debauchery and lying, over a chaste family man who believes in a collectivist or authoritarian philosophy. The latter’s bad ideas have generational consequences. I don’t care if he takes his kids to soccer practice every day."

This is the type of argument you make to justify, like, voting for Bob Menendez despite his corruption or voting for David Vitter despite his soliciting a prostitute. Comparing infanticide to not taking your kids to soccer practice is completely insane if, in fact, you genuinely believe that abortion is murder, which Harsanyi does not, no matter what he says or even thinks.

I will say though, that Republicans, in justifying their continued support for Walker, have brought up the examples of not only Menendez, but also Ted Kennedy and Bill Clinton. Their reasoning is this: Why should they abandon Walker (and Trump) over concerns about their moral character when the Democrats did not abandon Kennedy or Clinton? Why should they turn over when Democrats have stood firmly behind their own candidates who have been accused of moral impropriety? What comparison can be drawn between how Democrats have responded to scandals like this, involving their own candidates, and how Republicans have responded?

For them, politics is a game of winners and losers, and it is more important to win than it is to lose. Hence, why white evangelicals held their noses for Trump and will hold their noses for Walker, because they see policy priorities - such as proscribing abortion - as more important than the morality of their candidates. But how justified can this stance be? Does this mean Republicans are hypocritical? Or that they are realistic?

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Following the 2016 Post-Access Hollywood Trump playbook, the Christian Right is taking a strictly transactional stance, making clear it doesn't care about the allegations so long as Walker delivers the goods if he is elected:

Walker’s Christian fans unfazed by abortion revelations
The anti-abortion GOP Senate nominee's supporters say they care more about his policies than about his behavior.

This isn't really surprising. The Christian Right has always been built on hypocrisy. Do as I say not as I do. 

[coloradocowboi]

[tweet]

Question about focus groups, and maybe an experienced user like Pollster can answer here: isn't it almost impossible to get a geographically representative sample in a state even as large as Georgia? I understand that they're not meant to be statistically representative, obviously, but it feels irresponsible to just report the state and not say where exactly this is: Athens? Atlanta?

Yes. Focus groups usually never have more than 12 participants (and even that is large for a focus group) so it's impossible to be representative of anything, let alone geography in even a small state. Focus groups aren't designed to be representative and are intended only to be directional or informative, not predictive, and should never be the sole research tool used by any persuasive campaign (political or not). You will be hard pressed to find a focus group memo ever given to a client that doesn't have the words "qualitative takeaways are not statistically representative and should be confirmed with quantitative research before making high-stakes decisions" or something along those lines. That's part of what makes this focus group podcast (and Longwell's editorialization) so funny. There are a LOT of useful functions that focus groups provide, but what she's trying to do generally isn't it.

You won’t see it the other way around, unfortunately. I think that if you truly want something “representative,” a mix of qual and quant (usually in that order too) is absolutely crucial. Focus groups can help better design polling instruments and provide natural language for answers that more accurately reflects public opinion.