2024 Third Party and Independent Candidate General discussion

[PSOL]

The weird thing is that the AIP is the state party of the wider constitution party, which raises some odd questions.

[Compuzled_One]

Apparently the list for California is final according to a comment by Richard Winger. That means that RFK Jr and the Libertarian party nominee will not be on the ballot in 2024. This seriously damages the prospects of either candidate and is most likely going to get a lawsuit filed against such a case.

What list? According to ballotpedia, the deadline isn't until August 9th next year.

The list of candidates on the primary ballot for CA's various parties is what he's referring to. The best (only realistic way) for RFK Jr to get on the ballot in CA would be to win the nomination of a ballot access party in CA like the American Independent Party. The fact that he's not striving for that means he'll need to work to get nearly 220k signatures, which is WAY more work and way more money than winning the AIP's nomination.

Ah, got it. Well, good luck to him lol, maybe the homeboy advantage will safe him.

The weird thing is that the AIP is the state party of the wider constitution party, which raises some odd questions.

Didn't know that. Interesting.

[PSOL]

https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1739596836560683171

No one but the media and some Bernouts care about Cornel West. He’ll be as impactful as Jesse Ventura.

[The Mikado]

https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1739596836560683171

No one but the media and some Bernouts care about Cornel West. He’ll be as impactful as Jesse Ventura.

I think a lot of people haven't quite realized that given that West is way more telegenic, famous at least within a certain sphere, and better at giving a good quote than Jill Stein. That said, you're absolutely right that Cornel West is running a Potemkin campaign and won't be on the ballot basically anywhere while Jill Stein will be on the ballot in many relevant states.

Shorter answer: Arab-Americans in Michigan upset with Biden won't be threatening to vote for West, they'll be threatening to vote for Stein or RFK Jr. (Honestly starting to revise my early skepticism of RFK as he's proven to be more serious about this than he originally did and think he might be a way bigger factor than I initially thought)

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1739596836560683171

No one but the media and some Bernouts care about Cornel West. He’ll be as impactful as Jesse Ventura.

I think a lot of people haven't quite realized that given that West is way more telegenic, famous at least within a certain sphere, and better at giving a good quote than Jill Stein. That said, you're absolutely right that Cornel West is running a Potemkin campaign and won't be on the ballot basically anywhere while Jill Stein will be on the ballot in many relevant states.

Shorter answer: Arab-Americans in Michigan upset with Biden won't be threatening to vote for West, they'll be threatening to vote for Stein or RFK Jr. (Honestly starting to revise my early skepticism of RFK as he's proven to be more serious about this than he originally did and think he might be a way bigger factor than I initially thought)

West will ultimately be out of the race entirely, because I don't think supporters will fund a campaign that isn't even trying to gain ballot access. Cornell West is basically Roseanne Barr 2.0 at this point.

I still don't understand why he didn't just stay with the Greens?

[Harlow]

https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1739596836560683171

No one but the media and some Bernouts care about Cornel West. He’ll be as impactful as Jesse Ventura.

I think a lot of people haven't quite realized that given that West is way more telegenic, famous at least within a certain sphere, and better at giving a good quote than Jill Stein. That said, you're absolutely right that Cornel West is running a Potemkin campaign and won't be on the ballot basically anywhere while Jill Stein will be on the ballot in many relevant states.

Shorter answer: Arab-Americans in Michigan upset with Biden won't be threatening to vote for West, they'll be threatening to vote for Stein or RFK Jr. (Honestly starting to revise my early skepticism of RFK as he's proven to be more serious about this than he originally did and think he might be a way bigger factor than I initially thought)

West will ultimately be out of the race entirely, because I don't think supporters will fund a campaign that isn't even trying to gain ballot access. Cornell West is basically Roseanne Barr 2.0 at this point.

I still don't understand why he didn't just stay with the Greens?

He basically complained about having to go through the primary process, since the Greens weren't just planning on coronating him.

[Yelnoc]

https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1739596836560683171

No one but the media and some Bernouts care about Cornel West. He’ll be as impactful as Jesse Ventura.

I think a lot of people haven't quite realized that given that West is way more telegenic, famous at least within a certain sphere, and better at giving a good quote than Jill Stein. That said, you're absolutely right that Cornel West is running a Potemkin campaign and won't be on the ballot basically anywhere while Jill Stein will be on the ballot in many relevant states.

Shorter answer: Arab-Americans in Michigan upset with Biden won't be threatening to vote for West, they'll be threatening to vote for Stein or RFK Jr. (Honestly starting to revise my early skepticism of RFK as he's proven to be more serious about this than he originally did and think he might be a way bigger factor than I initially thought)

West will ultimately be out of the race entirely, because I don't think supporters will fund a campaign that isn't even trying to gain ballot access. Cornell West is basically Roseanne Barr 2.0 at this point.

I still don't understand why he didn't just stay with the Greens?

He basically complained about having to go through the primary process, since the Greens weren't just planning on coronating him.

Hilarious and embarrassing. Stein had endorsed him. Now, he needs to drop out and endorse Stein.

[quesaisje]

The Greens were willing to hold West's hand through it, too. But that wasn't enough. God forbid, he might have to get on a plane and respectfully hear out a few podunk party officials.

[bilaps]

https://apnews.com/article/robert-kennedy-president-election-utah-ballot-863513ec2bf75d1efc9b202cb8ddcc4a?utm_campaign=TrueAnthem&utm_medium=AP&utm_source=Twitter

Kennedy qualified for Utah. He's yet to file though.

[Octowakandi]

The Greens were willing to hold West's hand through it, too. But that wasn't enough. God forbid, he might have to get on a plane and respectfully hear out a few podunk party officials.

It's sad. It would have been the best performance for the Greens in a while, I suspect. Now their votes are pointlessly divided.

[wbrocks67]

Kennedy needs 83K signatures for NC

https://twitter.com/AdamBassOfMass/status/1742380336175009984

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

I think, on a per-capita-basis, this has to be the craziest hurdle for an independent candidate anywhere.

In NC, there are only 7 million registered voters... it's signatures from more than 1% of them.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I think, on a per-capita-basis, this has to be the craziest hurdle for an independent candidate anywhere.

NC has only 7 million registered voters... it's signatures from more than 1% of them.

The courts need to step in and fix this.

[The Mikado]

Texas' is May 13th and is 113,151 signatures FROM PEOPLE WHO DIDN'T VOTE IN THE GOP OR DEM PRIMARY, and will be another really hard one. Texas has the same date for the Presidential primary as it does for state and local primaries so turnout's higher even in uncontested Presidential ones (there's a hot primary for Democratic Senate candidate, for example, that people may want to vote in even if Biden vs Phillips vs Williamson is boring), so that limits the pool of people they RFK Jr might go for pretty drastically.

Anyway, the rules have been accessible for years. RFK Jr's campaign knows all of this. It's a good test for how serious a candidate he is given his campaign is actually TRYING for access basically everywhere. It's not like Cornel West who is essentially not really running for President but thinks having "Presidential candidate" is a good way to be a repeat guest on Bill Maher. RFK is actually going to try some of these harder states and it'll be interesting to see how that works.

[Compuzled_One]

No Labels seems to be turning into "No Chances". First, they cancelled their convention. Second, Lieberman started doubting the group. Now, they're probably not even gonna run a unity ticket-the guys said they're likely not running a democrat, possibly out of fears it hurts Biden. I feel they should drop out if they cannot do what they set out to do, and it definitely feels like they will.

[The Mikado]

No Labels seems to be turning into "No Chances". First, they cancelled their convention. Second, Lieberman started doubting the group. Now, they're probably not even gonna run a unity ticket-the guys said they're likely not running a democrat, possibly out of fears it hurts Biden. I feel they should drop out if they cannot do what they set out to do, and it definitely feels like they will.

If I had to guess, saying they're not going to run a Unity Ticket might not be out of a change of intent but out of a "Manchin said he won't do it, we have to change plans and we can't let on it wasn't our idea to change plans."

That said, I think you're right that there's a good shot they just don't run. If their choices are "Run something like a Huntsman/Hogan ticket" and "don't run anyone," the latter is way less embarrassing.

Re: Manchin, a few months ago No Labels said their plan was a Unity Ticket but with a Republican in the top slot. My guess is that Manchin's egomania led him to say either he's in the Presidential slot or he's not participating. It's one thing to leave being one of the most powerful Senators in Washington to be a no hope Presidential candidate, it's another to leave being one of the most powerful Senators in Washington to be a no hope Vice Presidential candidate. Who wants that?

[Redban]

Regardless of how you feel about RFK Jr. - if someone is averaging 15% in polls, he/she should be on the ballot in all 50 states. If RFK Jr misses any major state, then I think the rules need to change

[PSOL]

Regardless of how you feel about RFK Jr. - if someone is averaging 15% in polls, he/she should be on the ballot in all 50 states. If RFK Jr misses any major state, then I think the rules need to change

Ballot access restrictions should be lowered to much less than what it is now for any prospective candidate

Jr discovered that Richard Winger exists, Democrats are very screwed unless they actually engage against Jr and take him on.

[Redban]

Kennedy / Gabbard ticket?

https://twitter.com/BryceMLipscomb/status/1744113102885445933

[Open Source Intelligence]

The weird thing is that the AIP is the state party of the wider constitution party, which raises some odd questions.

Not true. I believe they at one time were the affiliate but we're going back a decade maybe. There was a California Constitution Party affiliate that did not have ballot access. After the death of the longtime California AIP Chair the past year or two, that affiliation was dropped by the national Constitution Party apparatus supposedly in an effort to try and get the AIP affiliation and therefore California ballot access (which matters for nothing else other than it guarantees your presidential nominee minimum 60k votes).

[wbrocks67]

Regardless of how you feel about RFK Jr. - if someone is averaging 15% in polls, he/she should be on the ballot in all 50 states. If RFK Jr misses any major state, then I think the rules need to change

LMAO, no. polling should not determine ballot access, that's blasphemous.

[Open Source Intelligence]

Regardless of how you feel about RFK Jr. - if someone is averaging 15% in polls, he/she should be on the ballot in all 50 states. If RFK Jr misses any major state, then I think the rules need to change

LMAO, no. polling should not determine ballot access, that's blasphemous.

In theory there should be one universal standard and everyone that meets that standard are the only people on the ballot nationally and they are on every state ballot. But Republicans and Democrats are corrupt people that don't want competition, so we'll never get that.

[CosmoKramer]

Regardless of how you feel about RFK Jr. - if someone is averaging 15% in polls, he/she should be on the ballot in all 50 states. If RFK Jr misses any major state, then I think the rules need to change

I mean what if someone engineers fake or biased polls? I get what you're saying, but the metric should be a little more verifiable. For presidential debates on the other hand...

[Redban]

Regardless of how you feel about RFK Jr. - if someone is averaging 15% in polls, he/she should be on the ballot in all 50 states. If RFK Jr misses any major state, then I think the rules need to change

I mean what if someone engineers fake or biased polls? I get what you're saying, but the metric should be a little more verifiable. For presidential debates on the other hand...

Even in a scenario where one candidate engineers mass amount of polls just to get on the ballot (which RFK Jr has not done BTW), or let’s say the polls are wrong and give someone a lot more support than they have   …  I still say so what? what’s the harm of giving that candidate ballot access anyways? If the candidates suck, people can choose to disregard them. But give people the option to choose or disregard them: the voters can figure out what to do. The upsides of giving more ballot access to candidates outweighs the downsides

The ones who want a tight and stringent restriction on ballot access are Biden supporters who  are just afraid that they’d lose with a third party option. But if your guy is losing his supporters to a third party option, than that speaks just as much to your guy’s weakness as the third-party candidates’ strengths 

[Open Source Intelligence]

RFK Jr. podcast with Richard Winger on the ballot access scheme in the country.

https://open.spotify.com/episode/5VWlsFNtphVIUxCit8qZma?si=AYrcnm8HSJmva5EPIU0uog&nd=1&dlsi=712568340d4f42d1