2024 Third Party and Independent Candidate General discussion

[The Mikado]

Virginia has made its ballot access laws much more fair by lowering the number of petitions to 2,000 from 51,000 signatures. A major victory for fair ballot access.

This is huge. VA has always been one of the biggest hurdles for third party ballot access.

Anyway, IMO a lot of people really underestimate the Libertarian Party's potential. I was very impressed with them getting 50 state ballot access when no other third party got remotely close, and Jorgensen's 1.2% is higher than I expected (I was guessing she'd get like 0.8% or so). The Libertarian Party could have a real shot at 2-3% or more if circumstances line up well in 2024 and they get a compelling candidate.

It'd be bad for the Democrats, but arguably the best thing the LP could do is nominate Vermin Supreme. His very name would make him the greatest anti-system protest candidate of all time, if you coupled it with 50 state ballot access.

[The Mikado]

I'm really disappointed in you guys for talking about all the irrelevant stuff rather than ballot access, the only question that actually matters for third party candidates and something that convinces me that the Greens, even with an irrelevant candidate, will outpoll Cornel West handily.

Why?

Greens have automatic ballot access in two major states that are going to be EXCEPTIONALLY hard for a new party to achieve it in: Texas and North Carolina. I don't see any way a party with access in Texas is outpolled by a party without access in Texas even if West does better than the Greens in every state they're both on the ballot, that's a major gap.

It'll be an interesting test to see how seriously the People's Party is to see how good they are at ballot access: Kanye West's campaign was a total slipshod disaster and got access in 18 states, missing some of the easy ones (they missed access in easy Wisconsin by showing up 10 minutes after filing closed). But once you get past 20ish states they start getting much harder. Even a relatively disciplined and rooted party like the Greens couldn't tackle ballot access in a number of tricky states like Georgia and basically has to rely on the work of previous incarnations of the party that already got them the access in Texas.

(One of the reasons why the Libertarian Party won't fade instantly even though their organization is crumbling: they have legacy ballot access in a lot of places that will take time to wither. They'll have access on over 40 ballots in 2024 even though they're clearly not intending to try hard...2028 will be when that starts showing fruit and they start losing a lot of their lines)

But yeah, I don't see any way the People's Party outpolls the Greens to become the largest left third party in America because I see no way they get on the ballot in Texas. That's just going to be way way way too many votes left on the table for them to overtake the Greens.

[The Mikado]

The upshot is if the People's Party tries, they can almost certainly get ballot access in WI and MI (and MN and NH if you consider those swing states) but no other competitive states, probably.

PA is hard, NV is hard (the Greens don't even have access there), AZ is hard, and GA is EXTREMELY hard (the Greens don't have access there either).

[The Mikado]

If some random bureaucrat like Evan McMullin could secure ballot access in 2016, surely Cornel West can do decently as we no longer live in pandemic times.

McMullin got all the easy states and nowhere else. 11 states total.



[Mod note: image adjusted for width.  Please be careful about posting images that are too big.]

The dark states are access, light are write in status. This is literally worse than Kanye's 18 states four years later.

[The Mikado]

Cornel West has switched to the Green Party.


“In the spirit of a broad United Front and coalition strategy, I am pursuing the nomination of the Green Party for President of the United States. Go to CornelWest24.com for more information to continue to support this unprecedented effort to empower precious poor and working people here and abroad. I thank the volunteers of the People's Party for the initial launch!” - West on Twitter

"Switched to" is the wrong term. He wants to be the nominee of both, or at least have a number of state Green Parties endorse him so he can get easy ballot access lines. This is probably the only way his campaign can be taken seriously.

[The Mikado]

With that, the biggest winner has got to be Richard Winger and BAN who have gotten the word out there that they exist.

I saw that he was stepping down from BAN, which isn't surprising, given how long he's been doing it, but I'm hoping that Redpath is able to keep things strong (and maybe combat some of the trolls that have taken to the comments section).

Definitely appreciate BAN - one of the few sites I check in on every day.

I don't check it every day but would like to echo it as an incredible resource.

Really curious what the Libertarians end up doing. America's oldest (don't bring up the Prohibition or Socialist Parties, they're irrelevant husks) and strongest third party pissing it all away in real time has been incredible to watch.

[The Mikado]

RFK Jr and Cornel West have no transferable voters, as Jr represents the remaining conservadems left and Cornel attracts left wing and an incalculable amount of disaffected black voters. They are diametrically opposed outside of wanting aid to Ukraine to stop, as even with that they have different plans for it.

Not sure that word means what you think it means. Pretty sure numbers that relatively low can be calculated relatively easily.

[The Mikado]

The important question is does he drop out of the Dem primary when he does that?

Anyway I expect Marianne Williamson's campaign is basically broke (it had just a couple hundred k at the end of last quarter and we'll be finding out soon) and she will probably drop out in the next few months. Quite possible Biden will be the only Dem name on the ballot in most states.

[The Mikado]

I think a lot of people are focusing on the "famous name" angle and not the just general "some people want to vote against Biden in the primary and will pick any name from a list given to them to do so" angle. Wouldn't be surprised to see Williamson rise somewhat with RFK withdrawing from the Dem primary (if this indeed happens) just because she'll be the only non-Biden name left in the poll. Some Biden 70 Williamson 17 or whatever polls will indicate that a lot of RFK support in the primary is just looking for the most famous non-Biden name.

[The Mikado]

So third party experts, is my suspicion that Cornel West is leaving the Greens because he suspects he'd fail to win their nomination accurate or am I way off base?

Who will the Greens turn to instead?

Why is this election cycle featuring a bunch of people trying to reinvent the wheel on ballot access while leaving the two parties with significant ballot access, the Ls and Gs, to nominate random cranks?

Early prediction, maybe I look like an idiot: third place in 2024 will go to whatever freak the Libertarians run. Not to RFK Jr, not to Cornel West, not to No Labels. Everyone underestimates the challenge of ballot access.

[The Mikado]

That sucks. I thought his campaign was going well, what happened?

I suspect there were private talks with Biden. I don't think it matters anyway, as Biden's probably DOA given the likely state of the economy in 2024, no matter who runs third party or as what party they run as.

As I said in the third party thread, my uninformed but based on past Green practices guess is that he realized the Greens wouldn't nominate him. The Green Party leadership is very insular and not especially welcoming to outside people coming in and taking over.

[The Mikado]

So do we think that groups like the American Independent Party of California or the Conservative Party of New York might give their ballot line to RFK Jr? I think that's basically the only way he could get on the ballot in those two states.

[The Mikado]

Richard Winger of Ballot Access News says in the comments that West is afraid of the FEC

Cornel West switched from Green to independent because he mistakenly believes that the Federal Election Commission might charge him with violating campaign finance laws if he continues as a Green. His campaign has been raising money to pay for Green Party petition drives. There is no basis for his fear; the FEC has never said a presidential candidate can’t pay for paid circulators for party petition drives.

https://ballot-access.org/2023/10/05/cornel-west-to-run-for-president-as-an-independent-unaffiliated-with-any-political-party/

This can't possibly be the reason. Or rather, if it is, Peter Daou is the dumbest man in politics. (Which is admittedly possible)

If he's saying he wants to run as an indy while not paying signature gatherers in any state...Cornel West might be on the ballot in like Colorado, Tennessee, and Louisiana but good luck getting on the ballot in any state that's even remotely tough.

[The Mikado]

Saying he has the Kennedy name would be like saying that someone named Eisenhower would take votes from Republicans by that name alone.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Eisenhower

Younger than Biden! Married to Julie Nixon Eisenhower, so grandson of one President and son-in-law of another!

Get David and Julie out there, they're GOP royalty!

[The Mikado]

I'm curious to see what the Trump campaign's response will be, since word on the street is they are aware that he will take more votes from him than Biden. I guess all they can do is start accusing him of being a Radical Liberal and hope they can undo the right's boosting of him over the past few months. Fox News can criticize him all they want but RFK Jr. has already made his way into the Joe Rogan / Jordan Peterson algorithm and that's distant enough from Republican media that it may be too late to undo all the damage.

Probably just ignore him, as Biden will do.

Yeah, that's really all they can do I suppose, but I really do think RFK could get a solid 1-2% of the vote at the very least in most swing states, and that's coming from Trump.

You're assuming he even gets on the ballot in most swing states.

If he's serious about running independent then he can get ballot access in the states that don't have difficult requirements.

The only main swing state that's relatively easy to get on the ballot on in Wisconsin. Some other states aren't impossible but, frankly, the sort of people who work for RFK Jr aren't the most organized, reliable, and dependable in the world. Michigan should be doable by him if he's trying seriously. Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona aren't happening.

Does that help Williamson at all?

I'm sure there are plenty of "anybody but Biden" protest votes. If she's still on the ballot come primary season, it's very likely people will vote for her by default.

I wonder if she will be. Her campaign has been running on fumes for a while now, I'd be surprised if she even makes it to the primaries at this point.

It seems like we haven't gotten any news out of her campaign in months. With RFK out of the way, I could see Williamson's getting some new life as the anti-Biden democrat, but I'd also agree that it's not guaranteed she makes it to South Carolina and New Hamsphire in the first place.

We'll find out some stuff when she releases her Q3 financial report next week but it's likely her campaign is basically broke.

That said, I do think in states where she gets her name on the ballot she becomes the magnet of the "I just want to vote against Biden" primary protest voters. As the only such person in a lot of states she could break double digits in some places, and maybe the 15% viability threshold in a few.

There are other no name nobodies who will get on the ballot in states with just a filing fee on the Dem primary, in fact there's already two of them in NV, but any state that requires even minimal effort won't have that sort. NV filing is open for another week and so far the only candidates who have filed are Armando "Mando" Perez-Serrato and Brent Foutz, both absolute nobodies. Serious candidates usually file on the very last day so I'm not surprised Biden and Williamson aren't on the list yet.

[The Mikado]

The verdict is in, West is lazy

“The moment of transition became clear, given the internal dynamics of the Green Party,” West said. “The procedures and requirements for debate, you have to go to various Green Party events in a variety of different states. … I said, ‘Oh my God, this is a lot of energy and time and effort.’”

Really all that was newsworthy in this hit piece.

This is the funniest reason possible for this.

[The Mikado]

Is he even trying at this point? I have a sneaking suspicion that this campaign doesn't exist outside of the green room of Real Time With Bill Maher.

I said this already but I'll say it again:

The actual nominee of the Green Party will outperform Cornel West.

You might say "But The Mikado, you know that the rando nobody the Greens pick will not have Cornel West's fame!" To which I'll just say that ballot access in TX and CA as a way to let people there blow off steam is enough to swamp West's vote total everywhere else. The Greens will be on the ballot in the nation's top three biggest states: CA, TX, and FL. West won't be on in any one of the three.

Third Party vote share is basically a function of ballot access and an independent will never match the Libertarians and Greens on that front. It's basically not possible. Therefore, the Libertarians are basically guaranteed 3rd and the Greens 4th no matter how famous an independent is.

[The Mikado]

Wonder if Perot’s runs was the high water mark; the duopoly will never let a third party independent on the debate stage again

Gary Johnson 2016 had the potential and shot to. Most media coverage of a 3rd party candidate since Nader 2000, a ticket with real gravitas, a real opening amid widespread discontent.

And then Johnson absolutely crapped the bed with an embarrassing half-assed campaign that made him look like a lightweight pothead.

I still think the ultimate third party potential would be a self-funding Mark Cuban run on the Libertarian ballot line. The Libertarian Party is the only one with the electoral machinery to be credible and a famous wealthy candidate paired with that party could be formidable.

[The Mikado]

Does RFK JR have ballot access anywhere yet? I know he's raised a lot for an independent candidate, but it's pretty late in the game, especially given how high the ballot access hurdle is in so many states.

The first deadline isn't until January (Utah) and the next one after that is in May. A lot of states' signature gathering periods haven't started yet.

[The Mikado]

Here's an excerpt from the Vanity Fair article the favorite son idea was proposed in.

But there is another option. That is: No Labels makes good on its pledge to ensure that Trump is not elected. By denying him victory in one or more of the key swing states. By putting a Republican No Labels candidate on the ballot, but only in those pivotal states. Imagine a favorite son or daughter approach. In other words: backing a willing Republican who is particularly popular in a battleground state. For example: Pat McCrory in North Carolina. Doug Ducey in Arizona. Brian Kemp in Georgia. Mitt Romney in Nevada. Paul Ryan in Wisconsin. Tom Ridge in Pennsylvania. John Engler in Michigan. Or how about Liz Cheney in any or all of them? You know she’d be game to push a big stick into Trump’s electoral spokes.

The average American voter is smarter than all of the people at No Labels, and would realize that this strategy is a ridiculous way to waste a vote.

Can't say I click Recommend on your posts very often but you're dead on here.

Sanchez knows way more about American politics than Mark McKinnon, at least. And probably doesn't wear a ridiculous hat.

[The Mikado]

With Jill Stein on the Green Party line, she could get ballot access in almost all 50 states and take a solid 1-2% from Biden.

Not sure about "all 50 states" or even that close.

For example, the Green Party has literally never in its existence made ballot access in Georgia, Oklahoma, Indiana, or South Dakota. There's plenty of other states I don't think they'll make this time, but those four states in particular they've never gotten access in in any election since they first ran in 1996.

Greens last made ballot access in Nevada and Nebraska in 2008. There's other states they last made in 2012.

[The Mikado]

This article says RFK is actually winning among voters under 30:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4304919-biden-loses-ground-with-young-voters-prompting-dem-concerns

Wow, now there's a shock, young people are done with Presidents born in the 1940s. That generation has run the country for 23 of the last 31 years.

You know RFK Jr was born in 1954, right? He's not a 1940s birth but he'll be 70 on election day so he's not exactly a spring chicken and is considerably older than, say, Mike Pence.

[The Mikado]

This article says RFK is actually winning among voters under 30:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4304919-biden-loses-ground-with-young-voters-prompting-dem-concerns

Wow, now there's a shock, young people are done with Presidents born in the 1940s. That generation has run the country for 23 of the last 31 years.

You know RFK Jr was born in 1954, right? He's not a 1940s birth but he'll be 70 on election day so he's not exactly a spring chicken and is considerably older than, say, Mike Pence.

Take it up with the poll respondents. Call up the pollster and see if they'll give the names and phone numbers to you.

Look, all I'm saying is that if your big complaint about Biden (born 1943) and Trump (born 1946) is age, maybe the third party candidates shouldn't be Manchin (born in 1947), Stein (born in 1950), West (born in 1953), and Kennedy (born in 1954).

It just hits me that maybe if you want to make generational change your thing as a third party you'd pick someone born after 1970, or at LEAST after 1960.

[The Mikado]

Apparently the Transhumanist Party announced their presidential ticket, led by Tom Ross.

To be entirely honest, I'm not sure if the Transhumanist Party's ran anyone before. I can't remember seeing any notable results, at least, but whoever they ran in the past may have been labeled 'independent.'

Either way, interesting, if perhaps trival, piece of news.

Didn't they run Zoltan Istvan before?

[The Mikado]

Apparently the list for California is final according to a comment by Richard Winger. That means that RFK Jr and the Libertarian party nominee will not be on the ballot in 2024. This seriously damages the prospects of either candidate and is most likely going to get a lawsuit filed against such a case.

What list? According to ballotpedia, the deadline isn't until August 9th next year.

The list of candidates on the primary ballot for CA's various parties is what he's referring to. The best (only realistic way) for RFK Jr to get on the ballot in CA would be to win the nomination of a ballot access party in CA like the American Independent Party. The fact that he's not striving for that means he'll need to work to get nearly 220k signatures, which is WAY more work and way more money than winning the AIP's nomination.