2024 Third Party and Independent Candidate General discussion

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I created a couple Manifold markets on RFK Jr. ballot access:

https://manifold.markets/BRTD/will-rfk-jr-make-the-ballot-in-geor
https://manifold.markets/BRTD/will-rfk-jr-make-the-ballot-in-colo
https://manifold.markets/BRTD/will-rfk-jr-make-the-ballot-in-penn
https://manifold.markets/BRTD/will-rfk-jr-make-the-ballot-in-wisc
https://manifold.markets/BRTD/will-rfk-jr-make-the-ballot-in-texa

Texas seems to be the most active, with many commenting pointing out that it's near impossible, which I tend to agree with. And NC is looking near impossible as well. Utah has always been one of the easier states.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1739596836560683171

No one but the media and some Bernouts care about Cornel West. He’ll be as impactful as Jesse Ventura.

I think a lot of people haven't quite realized that given that West is way more telegenic, famous at least within a certain sphere, and better at giving a good quote than Jill Stein. That said, you're absolutely right that Cornel West is running a Potemkin campaign and won't be on the ballot basically anywhere while Jill Stein will be on the ballot in many relevant states.

Shorter answer: Arab-Americans in Michigan upset with Biden won't be threatening to vote for West, they'll be threatening to vote for Stein or RFK Jr. (Honestly starting to revise my early skepticism of RFK as he's proven to be more serious about this than he originally did and think he might be a way bigger factor than I initially thought)

You think RFK Jr. can collect 12k signatures in Michigan by July 18? I'm skeptical.

[Redban]

VP Alert

https://twitter.com/RobertKennedyJr/status/1745168834967846992

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1739596836560683171

No one but the media and some Bernouts care about Cornel West. He’ll be as impactful as Jesse Ventura.

I think a lot of people haven't quite realized that given that West is way more telegenic, famous at least within a certain sphere, and better at giving a good quote than Jill Stein. That said, you're absolutely right that Cornel West is running a Potemkin campaign and won't be on the ballot basically anywhere while Jill Stein will be on the ballot in many relevant states.

Shorter answer: Arab-Americans in Michigan upset with Biden won't be threatening to vote for West, they'll be threatening to vote for Stein or RFK Jr. (Honestly starting to revise my early skepticism of RFK as he's proven to be more serious about this than he originally did and think he might be a way bigger factor than I initially thought)

You think RFK Jr. can collect 12k signatures in Michigan by July 18? I'm skeptical.

As bearish as I am on RFK Jr, I think that 12k signatures is doable in Michigan. That’s just under a quarter percent of the 2020 electorate there.

I do agree with another one of your posts about TX and NC likely being impossible for him.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

VP Alert

https://twitter.com/RobertKennedyJr/status/1745168834967846992

Not happening if Trump is the nominee.

[Open Source Intelligence]

National Catholic Register story on Peter Sonski and the American Solidarity Party.

https://www.ncregister.com/cna/meet-peter-sonski-the-catholic-you-ve-never-heard-of-who-s-running-for-president

[bilaps]

Kennedy is going to create a new party in 6 states: California, Texas, North Carolina, Hawaii, Delaware and Mississippi so he could require less signatures for ballot access. In 5 states it will be named We the people and in TX Texas Independent Party. He's still going to need around 13k signatures in NC and some 81k participants in precint conventions in TX. Also, 75k would needed be registered for this new party in California.

[MichaelM24]

Found this tweet interesting.

https://twitter.com/peterdaou/status/1747671930172326333

I've been supporting leftist unity for years now - it seems silly to me, personally, to have so many socialist parties in the USA (PSL, SPUSA, WWP, SEP, FSP, Socialist Action, Working Class Party, etc.) when a single force might be more productive.

What I found most interesting, though, isn't the unity aspect, which certainly isn't a new idea, but the fact he also listed Claudia De la Cruz (PSL's nominee) as one of the sides that should unify.

I wasn't as politically active during January of 2020, but I don't know if Gloria la Riva ever quite her message spread quite as far as Claudia De la Cruz has. I may be entirely wrong - Gloria la Riva was the nominee of the PSL three times (2008, 2016, and 2020), so she may very well have had made the rounds - but I am impressed with De la Cruz's presence during the election thus far.

[PSOL]

Peter Daou and Cornel West are demonrat has-beens doing one last operation for crooked Hillary.

What is evident is that SPUSA is very foolish running their own candidate and not continuing on the green gravy train. It worked pretty well for the past 4 years, why stop now?

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

https://twitter.com/AdamBassOfMass/status/1748043276777660576

Seems like RFK, Jr. Forming party for NC ballot access

[Open Source Intelligence]

Peter Daou and Cornel West are demonrat has-beens doing one last operation for crooked Hillary.

What is evident is that SPUSA is very foolish running their own candidate and not continuing on the green gravy train. It worked pretty well for the past 4 years, why stop now?

I think they would dispute the "worked pretty well for the past 4 years".

[bilaps]

From nyt

In third-party news, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s campaign sent volunteers to polling sites in New Hampshire yesterday to collect signatures to put his name on the general-election ballot there. The campaign says it collected the 3,000 signatures that the state requires; local officials will need to review their validity before the secretary of state’s office determines whether to include Kennedy, an environmental lawyer turned anti-vaccine activist who is mounting an independent bid for president, on its ballot.

[Open Source Intelligence]

https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1739596836560683171

No one but the media and some Bernouts care about Cornel West. He’ll be as impactful as Jesse Ventura.

I think a lot of people haven't quite realized that given that West is way more telegenic, famous at least within a certain sphere, and better at giving a good quote than Jill Stein. That said, you're absolutely right that Cornel West is running a Potemkin campaign and won't be on the ballot basically anywhere while Jill Stein will be on the ballot in many relevant states.

Shorter answer: Arab-Americans in Michigan upset with Biden won't be threatening to vote for West, they'll be threatening to vote for Stein or RFK Jr. (Honestly starting to revise my early skepticism of RFK as he's proven to be more serious about this than he originally did and think he might be a way bigger factor than I initially thought)

You think RFK Jr. can collect 12k signatures in Michigan by July 18? I'm skeptical.

Easy. As long as you have the money, 12k in signatures for a presidential candidate in a state the size of Michigan is not a high hurdle.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

ASP on ballot in Hawaii, joining Arkansas
https://www.facebook.com/AmericanSolidarityParty/posts/pfbid0kukJdiFiWQc2rGcGMAf6rHcXJcAhuFqaRRkuhGTQbZEeVoj3HxgZwVNNwRqofH7Ml

[MichaelM24]

I'd never personally vote for the ASP, but I did respect the votes Carroll was able to get in 2020, and I wish Sonski the best with ballot and write-in access.

[Harlow]

Cornel West just posted a tweet announcing the launch of the “Justice for All” Party, then deleted it.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Cornel West just posted a tweet announcing the launch of the “Justice for All” Party, then deleted it.

How typical

[Former Crackhead Mike Lindell]

https://twitter.com/cbsnews/status/1752188687675220000?s=46&t=XAfLJpHdQTLfZu...

[Bandit3 the Worker]

RFK Jr. isn't really doctrinaire libertarian.

It's sort of like how I've been forced to vote Libertarian when there's a lack of a better option, but I'm not in any way a doctrinaire libertarian.

[wbrocks67]

RFK Jr's "campaign" is pretty much proving what all of us have been saying. It's not a serious campaign operation.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

RFK Jr. isn't really doctrinaire libertarian.

It's sort of like how I've been forced to vote Libertarian when there's a lack of a better option, but I'm not in any way a doctrinaire libertarian.

Yeah; I think he’d have a hard time getting the nomination if he went for it.

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

Would the Libertarians even be willing to make him the nominee? The convention was skeptical of Johnson in 2016 and nearly defeated Weld for VP on the floor. That was before the whole Mises Caucus feuding of the last few years. RFK is even less of a Libertarian than Johnson was.

[Neo-Malthusian Misanthrope]

RFK Jr would probably be better off hijacking one or more of those small, weirdo, Rocky de la Fuente-type parties to gain ballot access and letting name recognition do the rest, instead of inserting himself into the insanity going on with the Libertarians - even though I think his conspiratorial views would win over more support than most here are giving him credit for, it's not worth the risk that they dump him for a dyed-in-the-wool Mises guy who wears an AnCap tophat or something.

[beaver2.0]

Per the party's twitter, RFK Jr. met with Reform Party leaders.

https://twitter.com/ReformParty

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Per the party's twitter, RFK Jr. met with Reform Party leaders.

https://twitter.com/ReformParty

How many states is that? Two from what I’m seeing on Ballotpedia (MS and FL), but that might be outdated.