2024 Third Party and Independent Candidate General discussion

[Comrade Funk]

So wtf is the difference between her and Cornell West?

[MichaelM24]

i was fully intending on voting for claudia de la cruz but the level of intense vitriol the democrats (still!) spew against jill stein is reason enough to support her

Claudia is still a better candidate. It’s honestly better for you to just vote for the PSL candidate.

Saying this, I wish Stein’s campaign the best of luck.

The PSL has never had write-in access in Indiana, whereas lesser leftist parties, such as the SPUSA and the WWP, have. In fact, I was highly considering voting for Monica Moorehead in 2016 before I went with Stein.

I certainly would like the opportunity to support Claudia De la Cruz, and I can only hope that she attempts write-in access here so I can do so, as I do find her a better candidate than I find Stein.

[Mr. Smith]

I was considering The Greens, especially when West was running [albeit reluctantly], and I did vote for Hawkins in 2020, but Stein [who made me reluctant for West in the first place] has ensured that I will not go for The Greens.  Maybe Toler can win still, but otherwise forget it. She was a reasonable idea in 2012, but idk what happened in 2016.

[AltWorlder]

So wtf is the difference between her and Cornell West?

She's got more of an anti-vaxx and Russian asset vibe

[Harlow]

So wtf is the difference between her and Cornell West?

She's got more of an anti-vaxx and Russian asset vibe

These are pretty weird statements to make for someone who is supposedly anti-vaxx.

https://twitter.com/DrJillStein/status/1483172308437114892?s=20

https://twitter.com/DrJillStein/status/1387110893209665541?s=20

https://twitter.com/DrJillStein/status/759470407346823168?s=20

[AltWorlder]

Okay guess that was just a popular misconception of her

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/is-green-party-candidate-jill-stein-anti-vaccine/

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Okay guess that was just a popular misconception of her

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/is-green-party-candidate-jill-stein-anti-vaccine/

Yeah Jill Stein was bombarded by an insane amount of misinfo by the dems in 2016.

[PSOL]

Well, let’s hope Republican money actually does come in to help the Green party rebuild, would be hilarious once 2024 comes around and Republicans lose again.

[Agafin]

https://twitter.com/DrJillStein/status/1722664968288383305?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7...
Jill Stein has called for a crimes investigation against Netanyahu and Bidens complicity as well as an actual ceasefire.

This is certainly going to peel off some youth/arab/progressive votes from Biden. Honestly, with all the recognizable third party candidates running next year (RFK, Stein, West, possibly a No labels candidate) running next year, and the near guarantee of a rematch between two unpopular candidates, I have a hard time seeing how the third party share won't be important next year. Highest third party share since at least 1996 is pretty much a lock I think.

[Compuzled_One]

So RFK Jr. is somehow, impossibly, polling decently for a third party candidate-most aggregates have him in the mid 10's, and Quinnipiac alongside another poll has him at 22% (19% with Cornel for some reason). He's also apparently getting a lot of money and is rich as well.

Also, he's taking more from Trump than Biden. Guess those people who told me it wouldn't be even were right.

The great unanswered question for Mr. Kennedy and Mr. West is ballot access and how are they going about getting it. You can be at 22% in a poll but if you're not on a ballot people aren't going to vote for you.

It was mentioned elsewhere that the Commission of Presidential Debates has compared to past cycles been incredibly silent not doing or saying anything on their website. The RNC did withdraw from CPD debates so there's that (an incredible own goal in my opinion considering you're going to have Biden on his own for at least an hour in 3 separate instances, so either Republicans cave in on the point or Biden is spared long periods of time talking), but also their previous arbitrary standard for excluding every 3rd party candidate in the past was 15% support. RFK Jr. is in these admittedly very very early polls above that number.

I suspect the CPD if we do get a debate will change their rules to ensure only 2 people are on stage, either by their own doing or through external pressure to Board members. It's never been this nonpartisan high standard everyone deludes themselves into thinking it is.

Yes, you are definitely right on them needing ballot access and these being early polls. RFK apparently has filled in North Carolina at the least, however, and he only needs 1/6 of what he's polling there (9%) to get on the ballot.

I also can definitely see the debates not happening next year, since the RNC withdrew and, even if RFK stays popular enough and gets enough ballot access to enter, the Commission may just raise the standards. Alternatively, Biden might just refuse him so that he doesn't get attention-even if he pulls mostly Trump supporters, he does pull some Biden ones, and if he somehow manages to get a large enough voter base, he might run again later, either as an indie or after transporting the base to another party.

[Open Source Intelligence]

With Jill Stein on the Green Party line, she could get ballot access in almost all 50 states and take a solid 1-2% from Biden.

Greens have never had 51-state ballot access, not even in 2000, and Stein in 2016 when everyone hated Hillary and Trump just cleared 1%. I don't see her getting similar numbers if Robert Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West as well as a potential No Labels ticket have large-scale ballot access. Howie Hawkins in 2020 got above 0.25% but with restricted ballot access compared to Stein's 2016 run because we don't live in this great free democracy that people lie to you about. Without looking it up, I think Hawkins had ballot access in the mid-30s number of states.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

This article says RFK is actually winning among voters under 30:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4304919-biden-loses-ground-with-young-voters-prompting-dem-concerns

[Open Source Intelligence]

This article says RFK is actually winning among voters under 30:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4304919-biden-loses-ground-with-young-voters-prompting-dem-concerns

Wow, now there's a shock, young people are done with Presidents born in the 1940s. That generation has run the country for 23 of the last 31 years.

[Open Source Intelligence]

https://twitter.com/DrJillStein/status/1722664968288383305?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7...
Jill Stein has called for a crimes investigation against Netanyahu and Bidens complicity as well as an actual ceasefire.

This is certainly going to peel off some youth/arab/progressive votes from Biden. Honestly, with all the recognizable third party candidates running next year (RFK, Stein, West, possibly a No labels candidate) running next year, and the near guarantee of a rematch between two unpopular candidates, I have a hard time seeing how the third party share won't be important next year. Highest third party share since at least 1996 is pretty much a lock I think.

2016 without a major third candidate on the Perot/Anderson level had 6+%. Libertarians more than tripled their previous best election. Greens had their best election since 2000. Constitution Party had their best election ever. McMillan got a half million votes with very limited ballot access and crossed 20% in Utah. There were then an insane number of write-in votes, most of which went uncounted in final stats.

Kennedy and a potential No Labels run combined with 2024 will probably have an even more disgruntled voter base than 2016 and would both more likely qualify as a major third candidate than Gary Johnson was, provided both major parties don't take criminal actions behind the scenes with ballot access, I can easily see the 6% mark crossed. You can even see 1996 surpassed which was largely just the leftovers of the Perot base with minor contributions from Nader and Harry Browne.

This was the election the Maine IRV was designed for presidentially and it's going to get its first real workout, probably to some people's chagrin responsible for putting it into law if it gives them a result they don't like.

[The Mikado]

This article says RFK is actually winning among voters under 30:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4304919-biden-loses-ground-with-young-voters-prompting-dem-concerns

Wow, now there's a shock, young people are done with Presidents born in the 1940s. That generation has run the country for 23 of the last 31 years.

You know RFK Jr was born in 1954, right? He's not a 1940s birth but he'll be 70 on election day so he's not exactly a spring chicken and is considerably older than, say, Mike Pence.

[Open Source Intelligence]

This article says RFK is actually winning among voters under 30:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4304919-biden-loses-ground-with-young-voters-prompting-dem-concerns

Wow, now there's a shock, young people are done with Presidents born in the 1940s. That generation has run the country for 23 of the last 31 years.

You know RFK Jr was born in 1954, right? He's not a 1940s birth but he'll be 70 on election day so he's not exactly a spring chicken and is considerably older than, say, Mike Pence.

Take it up with the poll respondents. Call up the pollster and see if they'll give the names and phone numbers to you.

[PSOL]

Libertarians had a great night on the 7th, so they could in theory do really well on Election Day.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Libertarians had a great night on the 7th, so they could in theory do really well on Election Day.

They did? How so? I didn't hear about any strong Libertarian candidates running anywhere.

[PSOL]

QAnon Shaman in for AZ

[PSOL]

RFK Jr’s face looks very poor, it feels like anytime he talks his skin is about to tear right off and is barely hanging on.

He doesn’t sound old compared to Biden, but he sounds like he had either a stroke or massive brain damage recently.

[The Mikado]

This article says RFK is actually winning among voters under 30:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4304919-biden-loses-ground-with-young-voters-prompting-dem-concerns

Wow, now there's a shock, young people are done with Presidents born in the 1940s. That generation has run the country for 23 of the last 31 years.

You know RFK Jr was born in 1954, right? He's not a 1940s birth but he'll be 70 on election day so he's not exactly a spring chicken and is considerably older than, say, Mike Pence.

Take it up with the poll respondents. Call up the pollster and see if they'll give the names and phone numbers to you.

Look, all I'm saying is that if your big complaint about Biden (born 1943) and Trump (born 1946) is age, maybe the third party candidates shouldn't be Manchin (born in 1947), Stein (born in 1950), West (born in 1953), and Kennedy (born in 1954).

It just hits me that maybe if you want to make generational change your thing as a third party you'd pick someone born after 1970, or at LEAST after 1960.

[Harlow]

Libertarians had a great night on the 7th, so they could in theory do really well on Election Day.

They did? How so? I didn't hear about any strong Libertarian candidates running anywhere.

Libertarian Lily Wu won the mayoral election in Wichita, Kansas, so maybe that's what they're referring to.

[Redban]

https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2023/11/15/utah-jazz-great-john-stockton-is/

NBA’s greatest point-guard John Stockton endorses RFK Jr

In an interview with Fox News on Tuesday, Stockton said he is backing independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for president because “I believe he’s been put on this planet for just this moment in time.”

“There’s a real need for him and his leadership, there’s a need for very smart people in these positions that have integrity that [is] off the charts, that have the stamina and strength to be able to speak and be a leader 24/7,” Stockton told the conservative media outlet.

[PSOL]

Alright, alright! Jr’s going to break out of the 1% benchmark.

No Label’s California campaign for enough registered voters is ending. They most likely will not be on the ballot.

[AltWorlder]

Former Executive Director of the Libertarian Party of Pennsylvania attempts to sue to reverse the Mises Caucus takeover of the LP.

American Solidarity Party presidential nominee speaks at the University of Michigan on behalf of campus group "American Revival Front," which is surprisingly much less sinister than their name appears.