2024 Third Party and Independent Candidate General discussion

[MichaelM24]

Apparently the Transhumanist Party announced their presidential ticket, led by Tom Ross.

To be entirely honest, I'm not sure if the Transhumanist Party's ran anyone before. I can't remember seeing any notable results, at least, but whoever they ran in the past may have been labeled 'independent.'

Either way, interesting, if perhaps trival, piece of news.

[The Mikado]

Apparently the Transhumanist Party announced their presidential ticket, led by Tom Ross.

To be entirely honest, I'm not sure if the Transhumanist Party's ran anyone before. I can't remember seeing any notable results, at least, but whoever they ran in the past may have been labeled 'independent.'

Either way, interesting, if perhaps trival, piece of news.

Didn't they run Zoltan Istvan before?

[MichaelM24]

Apparently the Transhumanist Party announced their presidential ticket, led by Tom Ross.

To be entirely honest, I'm not sure if the Transhumanist Party's ran anyone before. I can't remember seeing any notable results, at least, but whoever they ran in the past may have been labeled 'independent.'

Either way, interesting, if perhaps trival, piece of news.

Didn't they run Zoltan Istvan before?

He did indeed, back in 2016. According to The Green Papers, he got write-in access in two states - New York (76 votes) and Florida (19 votes).

Let's hope to God they do better with ballot/write-in access this time around.  

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Possible Commission on Presidential Debates Polling Average:


Methodology: Assumed 5 pollsters total, as was the case in 2016/20. Looked for any pollster they used in 2016 or 2020 that included at least one third party first. Yielded Fox, NPR, CNN. Selected Quinnipiac as the only remaining reputable pollster that included all third parties. For the final poll it's basically a toss-up between I&I or USA Today for highest quality pollster including all but Stein so I will show both possibilities. The most inclusive question was chosen for each pollster. A candidate's exclusion by a company does not count against them. The most recent national poll was used from each company.

FOX  Biden 41  Trump  35   Kennedy 15  West  3  Stein 3
NPR  Biden 44  Trump 37    Kennedy 16
CNN Biden 41   Trump 35    Kennedy 16  West 4
Quinnipiac Trump 38 Biden 35 Kennedy 17 West 3 Stein 3
USA Today/Suffolk Trump 37 Biden 37 Kennedy 13  West 4


AVERAGE Biden 39.6 Trump 36.4 Kennedy 15.4 West 3.5 Stein 3


FOX  Biden 41  Trump  35   Kennedy 15  West  3  Stein 3
NPR  Biden 44  Trump 37    Kennedy 16
CNN Biden 41   Trump 35    Kennedy 16  West 4
Quinnipiac Trump 38 Biden 35 Kennedy 17 West 3 Stein 3
I&I/TIPP   Biden 39  Trump 37 Kennedy 9 West 2

AVERAGE Biden 40 Trump 36.4 Kennedy 14.6 West 3 Stein 3

In Scenario 1 Kennedy qualifies for the Debates and in Scenario 2 he qualifies if they round up.

Long way to go until the final averages in September, but remember, Johnson '16 wasn't even being included in polls at this point.

[Harlow]

I find the concept of there being "debates" this general election cycle to be very abstract at best. I can't imagine Biden (or Trump tbh) being willing to share the stage with someone he believes is an anti-democracy authoritarian. And I especially can't picture either of them wanting to share the stage with Kennedy even if he was polling above the 15% threshold.

Plus, a debate would just further highlight Biden's clear cognitive decline.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I find the concept of there being "debates" this general election cycle to be very abstract at best. I can't imagine Biden (or Trump tbh) being willing to share the stage with someone he believes is an anti-democracy authoritarian. And I especially can't picture either of them wanting to share the stage with Kennedy even if he was polling above the 15% threshold.

Plus, a debate would just further highlight Biden's clear cognitive decline.

Most of the people on the commission are democrats or de facto democrats. Everything they do is probably run by the DNC. Whether Biden would participate in a debate between himself and Kennedy only is an open question but if Trump is on board Biden won't be a problem.

As for Trump, he inherently loves the stage and 'THE OFFICIAL PRESIDENTIAL DEBATES' is a lot harder to counterprogram against than a primary debate that is only on one channel usually. He won't have a 50-60 point lead to use as an excuse either. I know the RNC is really against the CPD, but what can they do at the end of the day if their nominee signs the invitation? Unless they're going to endorse West there's nothing they could do really. I think Trump will be eager to debate, even if it's just against Kennedy.

[AltWorlder]

Is Free and Equal going off the deep end?

https://freeandequal.org/

The blockchain app aside, they’re saying they’re gonna be hosting a six-candidate debate?

[PSOL]

Is Free and Equal going off the deep end?

https://freeandequal.org/

The blockchain app aside, they’re saying they’re gonna be hosting a six-candidate debate?

It's also going to be chosen by primarily F&E members which skew Libertarian. I suppose this is the beginning of the end of broad third party debates. Fitting that it died with the lack of one between Democrats and Republicans.

[AltWorlder]

I understand that having to do multiple nights of twenty people debates is not sustainable but only six? I don’t even know if they’d all attend, but this year you’ve got RFK Jr., Cornel West, the big three (Greens, Libertarians, Constitution), and maybe No Labels. That’s your six candidates right off the bat. Of course, in 2016 neither Jill Stein nor Gary Johnson deigned to appear so idk if Kennedy or West might act similarly.

[PSOL]

60,000 prospective voters for No Labels based off registration. Already they are surpassing the efforts of the Alliance which got 5th place last election at this point in the cycle, if they clinch all these votes.

[Open Source Intelligence]

60,000 prospective voters for No Labels based off registration. Already they are surpassing the efforts of the Alliance which got 5th place last election at this point in the cycle, if they clinch all these votes.

Per the most recent Ballot Access News they have ballot access now in 12 states matching the Constitution Party and have finished their petitioning for Alabama, Kansas, Ohio, and South Carolina.

The brutal ballot access states I see out there, with most of these being your highest number of voters states:

California - 75k registration for party or 219k for an independent
Illinois - 25k
Indiana - 37k
Michigan - 30k
New York - 45k
Oregon - 24k
Texas - 81k registration for party or 113k for an independent

I see them making almost all of those. New York State Government will do some pseudo-criminal actions to try to prevent them from making it on the ballot but that's New York. Illinois would try the same but No Labels can easily overwhelm that signatures number. Michigan and Oregon they'll make. That number for Indiana is hard. Texas and California I don't really know.

Some of these states they could take the ballot access of an entity on the ballot. Michigan for example has the Natural Law Party where you can pay the attorney that runs the party and get their ballot access. Not sure No Labels would want the association with these entities however.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is at 2 states (Oregon, South Carolina).

Speculation that Mark Cuban may be doing something political. He's ending his participation on Shark Tank and rumored to be looking to sell the Dallas Mavericks.

[MichaelM24]

I can definitely attest that Indiana belongs on that list, as our ballot access is absolutely awful. Luckily, the people I voted for in 2016 and 2020 were certified write-ins, but it would be great to vote for someone actually on the ballot while living here.

Libertarians have long had ballot access, and do pretty well for themselves. On the presidential level, Libertarian nominees' Michael Badnarik (2004) and Bob Barr (2008) had their best result, percentage-wise, here. Naturally, Donald Rainwater impressed everyone in the 2020 Gubernatorial, getting 11.4%. Hell, in the 2022 Secretary of State race, Jeff Maurer got 9-11% in a handful of counties in southern-central Indiana.

It'd just be great if the success the Libertarians have had here could have a chance to translate onto other parties.

[Open Source Intelligence]

I can definitely attest that Indiana belongs on that list, as our ballot access is absolutely awful. Luckily, the people I voted for in 2016 and 2020 were certified write-ins, but it would be great to vote for someone actually on the ballot while living here.

2% of the vote in the most recent Secretary of State race. Otherwise you get that level of signatures.

The Green Party lawsuit that the Libertarians were co-sponsors of lost. Its appeal is being worked out.

The bright thing if the standard holds is the next SoS race is 2026 where the next highest-profile thing on the ballot is Congressional Representative with no President, Governor, or U.S. Senator up, so it should be a lower-turnout election meaning the barrier is much lower.

[PSOL]

Libertarian debate on Saturday

Several parties trying to get on Hawai’i ballot.

[PSOL]

With the Green party putting in 63,000 signatures miraculously, 13,000 more than the required amount, it does show that there is an appetite for a grand Green performance given in 2020 they got 1,557 votes. The appetite for an alternative to the two most hated people in the United States right now is ever-pressing and increasing.

RFK Jr. is currently on the ballot in South Carolina and Oregon. No other work done yet.

If the stars align, the Green party’s candidate could be on 28 states regardless if it includes the party on the Ballot. Shame it won’t include New York.

Constitution could be on 27 but it will be pricey. Tbh with the mood in this country come E-day I could see a rebound for the party. They seriously are trying in North Carolina.

No Labels could be a heavy hitter depending on how much money their investors put into it.

[AltWorlder]

On the subject of Mark Cuban running: remember how for years and years Mike Bloomberg was always rumored to run and never did, only flirted with the press that he might, until he changed his mind for some reason for 2020?

[Open Source Intelligence]

Under a screenshot of an item shared on Twitter titled "Anticipated Q&A", it appears the news is getting dropped at the weekend Libertarian National Committee meeting on the budget that they will only have ballot access in 47 states due to getting ballot access in the remaining 3 states is projected to cost $600k. They're appearing to blame the Jorgensen ticket got less votes than the Johnson ticket for why, but in December 2018 the Libertarian Party were on 32 state ballots and in December 2022 they were on 34 states.

Looking at the November edition of Ballot Access News for state of petitioning, my guesses are the 3 are Alabama, Illinois, and New York. Alabama they took a mighty swing in 2022 to become a qualified party and it almost worked but they weren't able to get the 20s-level percentage number required in any state race, even where only one major party candidate was running.

The same screenshot says the outreach/activism budget is decreasing $492k versus 2020, saying they project to spend $274k less in candidate/campaign support and $181k less on branding, prioritizing ballot access and spending fundraising expense.

So good job to the Republican interlopers that infiltrated the party to neuter it. If you have money and want to help, focus on state-level stuff. I wonder if Michael Heise even wants the Mises Caucus to own the presidential candidate this time. Rectenwald was already a punt compared to Dave Smith, but if his guy wins the nomination, he owns the results. If Mises people say Jorgensen's results were an embarassment, what is Rectenwald getting a third of her vote total? It might be worth it to him to just have Hornberger win. It's a guy you agree with mostly but he's not a Mises guy unlike Rectenwald that has no identity outside the Mises Caucus.

[Roll Roons]

No Labels is canceling their planned in-person convention and going virtual:
https://twitter.com/axios/status/1730027709374386666
Not exactly a sign of confidence on their part.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

No Labels is canceling their planned in-person convention and going virtual:
https://twitter.com/axios/status/1730027709374386666
Not exactly a sign of confidence on their part.

Literally Americans Elect 2.0 at this point.

[flyboy1058]

Anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., apologized Tuesday for suggesting things are worse for people today than they were for Anne Frank, the teenager who died in a Nazi concentration camp after hiding with her family in a secret annex in an Amsterdam house for two years. An investigation by The Associated Press last month found that Kennedy has invoked the specter of Nazis and the Holocaust when talking about public health measures meant to save lives during the pandemic, such as requiring masks or vaccine mandates.

Last month, for example, he put out a video that showed Fauci in a Hitler mustache. In an October speech to the Ron Paul Institute, he obliquely compared public health measures put in place by governments around the world to Nazi propaganda meant to scare people into abandoning critical thinking.

Kennedy apologized in 2015 after he used the word “holocaust” to describe children whom he believes were hurt by vaccines.

In his Tuesday apology, Kennedy did not address his past invocations of Nazis, Hitler and the Holocaust when discussing vaccines. Representatives of his nonprofit, Children’s Health Defense, did not return emails asking about his past comments.

Just think about all the vaccines that kids get before they attend school. Robert F Kennedy Junior doesn't believe kids should get these vaccines. What an idiot! These vaccines have saved basically millions of lives and kept kids from contracting diseases like polio. In the 20s and 30s, 40s and 50s there were tens of thousands of kids who contracted polio and could not walk. Does RFK Junior really want us to return to that?

Here are the vaccines that have helped save lives and kept us healthy
K-12 Back-to-School Vaccination Checklist

Kindergarten (ages 4-6):
Chickenpox (varicella vaccine)
Diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis (DTaP vaccine)
Flu (flu vaccine)
Measles, mumps and rubella (MMR vaccine)
Polio (IPV vaccine)
Elementary School (ages 7-10):
Flu (flu vaccine)
Middle School (ages 11-12):
Flu (flu vaccine)
Human papillomavirus (HPV vaccine)
Meningococcal disease (meningococcal conjugate vaccine)
Tetanus, diphtheria, and pertussis (Tdap vaccine)
High School (ages 13-18):
Flu (flu vaccine)
Meningococcal disease (meningococcal conjugate vaccine)
Serogroup B meningococcal infection (serogroup B meningococcal vaccine)

[PSOL]

While it is true that Jr is a fascist, I don’t think it is constructive to not point out the large amount of remaining fascistic elements within American society that do indeed skew Democratic. Jr has been trying hard to reach the middle class centrist vote unfairly labeled as “Normie” and these voters do indeed skew democratic. He insidiously casts himself as supposedly moderate and above the system to sell his snake oil like a lot of fascists do.

[AltWorlder]

Anyone catch the Libertarian debate on Saturday? How'd that go

[PSOL]

The PSL ticket set to win P&F’s nomination again. With Jill Stein not being on the ballot and Cornel West’s campaign forever tarnished and with no ballot access work done, it’s clear who’s gonna win.

Ajamu Baraka or even Howie Hawkins had a greater chance to get the nomination than West, but the Green party threw it all away by not prioritizing candidate quality.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Can't wait to see how the QAnon freaks spin this one!

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1732208444034175395?s=20

[PSOL]

We need to get that if faced with the same situation, a significant amount of regular people would have gotten on that plane and thought nothing of the morality of the situation. You know how many people think they are entitled to someone's bodies after getting into a relationship or think they now own the body of a prostitute for their pay.