2024 Third Party and Independent Candidate General discussion

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Very dumb decision. The Green Party would make ballot access far easier.

[PSOL]

So he didn’t have the discipline to run for a party nomination. Sorry, but just because you are a celebrity doesn’t mean you get to choose to not listen to qualified voices. Enjoy running your legacy into the ground fool.

Many people that deluded themselves into thinking Cornel West was going to lead them to victory should be ran out of anything they involve themselves into. This is the end of the Green Party as a serious organization. It’s time for many good voices within the party to just call it quits and join serious organizations. If the remaining opportunists want to survive, then it’s time to throw in the towel and join P&F already

Watch as he gets on the ballot in like 20 states and 0.1% of the popular vote.

He won’t even go that far, the costs of entry is over his net worth.

[AltWorlder]

lol does this mean RFK Jr. will seek to do an entryism on the Greens now

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

That sucks. I thought his campaign was going well, what happened?

[beaver2.0]

So this is the third label has had since June. By January I expect his campaign to have had stints with the Constitution, Libertarian, Alliance, and Transhumanist parties.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

That sucks. I thought his campaign was going well, what happened?

I suspect there were private talks with Biden. I don't think it matters anyway, as Biden's probably DOA given the likely state of the economy in 2024, no matter who runs third party or as what party they run as.

[Lief 🗽]

Maybe he should drop out completely and focus on paying his late taxes and delinquent child support.

[beaver2.0]

Apparently Emanuel Pastreich is no longer running for the Green nomination. So this leaves them with just one candidate according to Wikipedia: Randy Tyler. Two more, Jasmine Sherman and Jorge Zavala according to twitter.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Maybe he should drop out completely and focus on paying his late taxes and delinquent child support.

Hunter is not running.

[Alben Barkley]

https://www.thefp.com/p/nate-silver-the-conventional-wisdom

For the sake of argument, let’s say that Kennedy does prove to be a factor in 2024. Why the widespread assumption that Biden has more to lose than Trump? As my former FiveThirtyEight colleague Nathaniel Rakich has pointed out, polls fairly consistently show Kennedy with stronger favorable ratings among Republicans than Democrats.

These trends have grown over time as voters have gotten to know Kennedy better, seen how he’s opposed Biden, and come to realize that a lot of Kennedy’s policy positions are actually pretty conservative.

You might also note that there’s quite a bit of variation in Kennedy’s ratings from poll to poll. I have a couple of theories about this: one is that it may depend in part on how polls define who’s a Democrat. Some Kennedy supporters may be lapsed “Democrats in Name Only” who are no longer on board with the current aims of the party. For instance, voters who share Kennedy’s skepticism about vaccines once had more of a home on the left than they now do.

Voters may also differ in their views of Kennedy depending on their level of political knowledge. A voter who hasn’t yet thought much about the campaign might assume from the Kennedy name that RFK Jr. is a standard liberal Democrat, or maybe even a leftist one like his campaign manager Dennis Kucinich. Someone who watches more political news, conversely, might know that some of Kennedy’s positions are heterodox if not outright conservative. Polls of likely voters will capture a more knowledgeable set of voters than polls of all adults.

...

Let me point out a couple of nerdy details. One is that RFK Jr. is relatively popular with people who didn’t vote for a presidential candidate in 2020. That makes sense; his views aren’t particularly well-represented in either party coalition. However, this implies that Kennedy would pull some of his votes from the sidelines of the American electorate rather than from Biden or Trump.

Note also that Kennedy does worse among 2020 Biden voters than among Democrats. What does this mean, exactly? It means some of Kennedy’s supporters are anti-Biden Democrats. However, crucially, those anti-Biden Democrats mostly voted for Trump in 2020 if they voted at all. This is the best piece of evidence for a Kennedy run helping Biden. He may provide an off-ramp for voters who are fed up with Biden but would also like an excuse to not have to vote for Trump.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I like the new based Bandit.

[The Mikado]

So third party experts, is my suspicion that Cornel West is leaving the Greens because he suspects he'd fail to win their nomination accurate or am I way off base?

Who will the Greens turn to instead?

Why is this election cycle featuring a bunch of people trying to reinvent the wheel on ballot access while leaving the two parties with significant ballot access, the Ls and Gs, to nominate random cranks?

Early prediction, maybe I look like an idiot: third place in 2024 will go to whatever freak the Libertarians run. Not to RFK Jr, not to Cornel West, not to No Labels. Everyone underestimates the challenge of ballot access.

[The Mikado]

That sucks. I thought his campaign was going well, what happened?

I suspect there were private talks with Biden. I don't think it matters anyway, as Biden's probably DOA given the likely state of the economy in 2024, no matter who runs third party or as what party they run as.

As I said in the third party thread, my uninformed but based on past Green practices guess is that he realized the Greens wouldn't nominate him. The Green Party leadership is very insular and not especially welcoming to outside people coming in and taking over.

[quesaisje]

So third party experts, is my suspicion that Cornel West is leaving the Greens because he suspects he'd fail to win their nomination accurate or am I way off base?

My guess is that it was a matter of him refusing to make necessary accommodations. I don't doubt that West could win their nomination, but doing so would involve relinquishing some of his independence and kissing certain rings.

The Greens might have been willing to lend their ballot line to an entryist, but they were never going to do it for free.

[sul]

Okay, so as of right now him and RFK jr are non factors in the 2024 race. How does cornell West plan to get on all states ballots let alone afford to as a independent?

[PSOL]

Cornel West’s vanity and inability to work apart of a group without being the star of the show is the most likely reason. Celebrities and outsiders who are not held accountable often sway to wrecking the party.

Other parties like Socialist Alternative or PSL instill discipline and a sense of teamwork and back that up by real results. Else they rot and fail.

[The Mikado]

So do we think that groups like the American Independent Party of California or the Conservative Party of New York might give their ballot line to RFK Jr? I think that's basically the only way he could get on the ballot in those two states.

[PSOL]

So do we think that groups like the American Independent Party of California or the Conservative Party of New York might give their ballot line to RFK Jr? I think that's basically the only way he could get on the ballot in those two states.

The latter party is basically a satellite organization for Republicans

As a mod mikado I urge you to clean up the clutter on the 2024 board

[ReallySuper]

love claudia from her work w/ the people's forum, codepink and lots of other leftist organizing. hate claudia for making me have to choose between her and cornel 

well at least theres no competition between the two for my vote now

[SN2903]

I disagree. I mean yeah he may take some votes from Trump who would go for him otherwise,  but he's still getting 15% among democrats within the Democratic party, he has the Kennedy name and don't forget many independents could go for him and Biden carried them in 2020. I think he def hurts Biden more than Trump. Trump's base is a lot more locked in to vote for him than Biden voters are to vote for him. Biden is on the border of not having enough support to run right now and his support is paper thin in strength. His approval is high 30s. RFK Jr. has the chance to get Perot like numbers.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

heatcharger has gone full Atlas-brain. You hate to see it, folks.

[AltWorlder]

He should really have more than 14%.

How did Ross Perot end up with so many votes? In some of the early polls in the 1992 cycle, Perot was actually winning, even though most people didn't even know who he was yet.

Have to assume ballot access laws weren’t as nearly stringent as they are now. He was actually able to make it to the debate stage with the big boys! Such success is inconceivable for a modern day independent or third party candidate!

[AltWorlder]

Richard Winger of Ballot Access News says in the comments that West is afraid of the FEC

Cornel West switched from Green to independent because he mistakenly believes that the Federal Election Commission might charge him with violating campaign finance laws if he continues as a Green. His campaign has been raising money to pay for Green Party petition drives. There is no basis for his fear; the FEC has never said a presidential candidate can’t pay for paid circulators for party petition drives.

https://ballot-access.org/2023/10/05/cornel-west-to-run-for-president-as-an-independent-unaffiliated-with-any-political-party/

[The Mikado]

Richard Winger of Ballot Access News says in the comments that West is afraid of the FEC

Cornel West switched from Green to independent because he mistakenly believes that the Federal Election Commission might charge him with violating campaign finance laws if he continues as a Green. His campaign has been raising money to pay for Green Party petition drives. There is no basis for his fear; the FEC has never said a presidential candidate can’t pay for paid circulators for party petition drives.

https://ballot-access.org/2023/10/05/cornel-west-to-run-for-president-as-an-independent-unaffiliated-with-any-political-party/

This can't possibly be the reason. Or rather, if it is, Peter Daou is the dumbest man in politics. (Which is admittedly possible)

If he's saying he wants to run as an indy while not paying signature gatherers in any state...Cornel West might be on the ballot in like Colorado, Tennessee, and Louisiana but good luck getting on the ballot in any state that's even remotely tough.

[President Johnson]

I thought he would get like one percent in the end, now it seems like it will be less than that. The guy could form a ticket with the anti-vaxx weirdo.