2024 Third Party and Independent Candidate General discussion

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

This thread is only solidfying my belief that "Titanium Biden-spoiler candidate RFK Jr." is gonna be among the most laughably bad takes from this election cycle. Still time for "Black voters & young voters for Kanye Cornel West will cost Biden the election" can dethrone it though.

[Ferguson97]

This has more Perot potential than the Democrats on here are able to believe. If you told me he got 10% of the vote I wouldn’t be surprised.

If Kennedy wins 10% of the vote, then Joe Biden is winning in a landslide.

[Progressive Pessimist]

This would probably take more votes from Trump than Biden. That being said, the impact will be negligible unless the race is really close. Which, considering the last two presidential elections, is a strong possibility.

If SnowLabrador is saying this, RFK running as an Independent basically guarantees Biden's re-election.

[heatcharger]

This has more Perot potential than the Democrats on here are able to believe. If you told me he got 10% of the vote I wouldn’t be surprised.

If Kennedy wins 10% of the vote, then Joe Biden is winning in a landslide.

Nope little bro

https://twitter.com/iapolls2022/status/1708878614387691774?s=46&t=J_equ31A3o...

[Tekken_Guy]

This has more Perot potential than the Democrats on here are able to believe. If you told me he got 10% of the vote I wouldn’t be surprised.

If Kennedy wins 10% of the vote, then Joe Biden is winning in a landslide.

Nope little bro

https://twitter.com/iapolls2022/status/1708878614387691774?s=46&t=J_equ31A3o...

https://johnzogbystrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Exec_Analysis_09_24_2023.pdf

[DaleCooper]

This has more Perot potential than the Democrats on here are able to believe. If you told me he got 10% of the vote I wouldn’t be surprised.

If Kennedy wins 10% of the vote, then Joe Biden is winning in a landslide.

Nope little bro

https://twitter.com/iapolls2022/status/1708878614387691774?s=46&t=J_equ31A3o...

That poll is likely fake. In reality, RFK Jr. appeals almost exclusively to the types of people who vote Trump. You know this to be true but are in denial.

[heatcharger]

That poll is likely fake.

You need help man...

[DaleCooper]

That poll is likely fake.

You need help man...

RFK, Jr. appeals entirely to right wing conspiracy kooks and nihilistic people with little to no trust in American institutions. The people who will vote for RFK Jr are the suburban anti-vax conspiracy moms, the Joe Rogan fans, the social libertarians who also hate Democrats, the "Plan-demic" people. In other words, he appeals to the low propensity Trump voters that Republicans absolutely cannot afford to lose. It is staggering to me that they can't see how much of a threat this is. This will be more obvious once the media starts its "Can you believe what outrageous thing RFK Jr. said today?!" routine.  

[pppolitics]

Being an anti-vaxxer makes him unpalatable for most Democrats.

Democrats should get him on the ballots in as many states as possible so he steals votes from Trump.

[Senator Incitatus]

Being an anti-vaxxer makes him unpalatable for most Democrats.

RFK Jr. has explicitly directed his entire campaign (including his comments on vaccination and skepticism of medical consensus) at the most Democratic constituency in the entire country.

If he's going to drop any current supporters (besides those who confused him with his father or are just casting a protest vote), it's not going to be because of his most famous position, anti-vaccination, which they've already accepted by supporting him to this point. It's going to be because they don't share his lesser known positions on things like environmental racism, immigration, medical racism, police reform, reparations for slavery, free birth control, and mandatory diversity training.

At the end of the day, a strong RFK Jr. campaign exacerbates Biden's problems with Democratic-leaning minority voters. Even if he pulls about evenly from both candidates in polls now, if he gets down to 5% in November 2024, that will all be at Biden's expense. We've moved past the pretty ridiculous question of whether he can cost Biden the nomination, but he can definitely cost Biden his re-election in a close race.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Being an anti-vaxxer makes him unpalatable for most Democrats.

RFK Jr. has explicitly directed his entire campaign (including his comments on vaccination and skepticism of medical consensus) at the most Democratic constituency in the entire country.

If he's going to drop any current supporters (besides those who confused him with his father or are just casting a protest vote), it's not going to be because of his most famous position, anti-vaccination, which they've already accepted by supporting him to this point. It's going to be because they don't share his lesser known positions on things like environmental racism, immigration, medical racism, police reform, reparations for slavery, free birth control, and mandatory diversity training.

At the end of the day, a strong RFK Jr. campaign exacerbates Biden's problems with Democratic-leaning minority voters. Even if he pulls about evenly from both candidates in polls now, if he gets down to 5% in November 2024, that will all be at Biden's expense. We've moved past the pretty ridiculous question of whether he can cost Biden the nomination, but he can definitely cost Biden his re-election in a close race.

That is true. While right now his more right-coded views are newsworthy because he's in the dem primary, if the right views him as a threat I can easily see his support for immigration, reparations and affirmative action for example cause his numbers to crater with Republicans.
After all his far-left views haven't been very publciized yet while by now everyone knows about him being anti-vax.

[PSOL]

Being an anti-vaxxer makes him unpalatable for most Democrats.

RFK Jr. has explicitly directed his entire campaign (including his comments on vaccination and skepticism of medical consensus) at the most Democratic constituency in the entire country.

If he's going to drop any current supporters (besides those who confused him with his father or are just casting a protest vote), it's not going to be because of his most famous position, anti-vaccination, which they've already accepted by supporting him to this point. It's going to be because they don't share his lesser known positions on things like environmental racism, immigration, medical racism, police reform, reparations for slavery, free birth control, and mandatory diversity training.

At the end of the day, a strong RFK Jr. campaign exacerbates Biden's problems with Democratic-leaning minority voters. Even if he pulls about evenly from both candidates in polls now, if he gets down to 5% in November 2024, that will all be at Biden's expense. We've moved past the pretty ridiculous question of whether he can cost Biden the nomination, but he can definitely cost Biden his re-election in a close race.

A significant amount of the black male voters RFK Jr might get are entirely nonvoters or unreliable voters. There's no effect to Biden as these sort of voters already dislike Biden and are disaffected with Democrats for a whole host of reasons but they aren't exactly spoilers. I haven't exactly seen any sort of news that RFK Jr is successfully reaching out to these types of voters and I have my ways of keeping up with this sort of thing.

The few contrarian lumpens and disaffected shopkeepers in the ghetto seem to vote for Trump anyway. Besides, most of Democratic campaign messaging is female-coded and driven anyway.

[Senator Incitatus]

Being an anti-vaxxer makes him unpalatable for most Democrats.

RFK Jr. has explicitly directed his entire campaign (including his comments on vaccination and skepticism of medical consensus) at the most Democratic constituency in the entire country.

If he's going to drop any current supporters (besides those who confused him with his father or are just casting a protest vote), it's not going to be because of his most famous position, anti-vaccination, which they've already accepted by supporting him to this point. It's going to be because they don't share his lesser known positions on things like environmental racism, immigration, medical racism, police reform, reparations for slavery, free birth control, and mandatory diversity training.

At the end of the day, a strong RFK Jr. campaign exacerbates Biden's problems with Democratic-leaning minority voters. Even if he pulls about evenly from both candidates in polls now, if he gets down to 5% in November 2024, that will all be at Biden's expense. We've moved past the pretty ridiculous question of whether he can cost Biden the nomination, but he can definitely cost Biden his re-election in a close race.

A significant amount of the black male voters RFK Jr might get are entirely nonvoters or unreliable voters. There's no effect to Biden as these sort of voters already dislike Biden and are disaffected with Democrats for a whole host of reasons but they aren't exactly spoilers. I haven't exactly seen any sort of news that RFK Jr is successfully reaching out to these types of voters and I have my ways of keeping up with this sort of thing.

The few contrarian lumpens and disaffected shopkeepers in the ghetto seem to vote for Trump anyway. Besides, most of Democratic campaign messaging is female-coded and driven anyway.

I don't firmly disagree with most of this and should have second most Democratic constituency if you split by gender. But the idea that RFK is going to make serious inroads with Trump voters (but not Biden voters because they're such big fans of vaccines) while preaching about environmental racism and DEI is one of the craziest that's caught on with this forum in my time here.

[DaleCooper]

The delusion that RFK Jr appeals to Biden voters reminds me a lot of the talking points people used to use to pretend that people like Joe Rogan, Dave Rubin, or Tim Pool aren't conservative. "Oh yeah, the guy who voted for Obama twice is on the right. Sure!" But yes, they are, because they spend all of their time talking about how evil the Democrats are with other far right characters. It doesn't matter if they support the ACA or whatever, because their audiences don't care about policy, they care about feelings. RFK Jr. voters don't care about policy, because if they did then they wouldn't even be considering voting third party. They want to feel like they're sticking it to the establishment, whatever that even means, and that used to be one of Trump's main appeals.

I implore anybody who thinks that RFK Jr. appeals to Democrats to go out and track down some of the people who actually have positive things to say about the man. Talk to them for a bit and then ask yourself, "Which candidate would these people vote for if they had to choose between Trump and Biden?" There's a reason that the only audience this guy can find is with people like Russell Brand and Jordan Peterson, and that's because there simply is no audience for him anywhere else.

[Agafin]

I just wanted to say that there are many democratic voters who are anti-vaccine. Weren't black voters the most antivax group during the early phase of Covid 19?

[MarkD]

I'm not interested.

[Sir Mohamed]

Even if he gets broad ballot access - which is a major question mark - he's not getting a half percentage point of the NPV.

[PSOL]

Being an anti-vaxxer makes him unpalatable for most Democrats.

RFK Jr. has explicitly directed his entire campaign (including his comments on vaccination and skepticism of medical consensus) at the most Democratic constituency in the entire country.

If he's going to drop any current supporters (besides those who confused him with his father or are just casting a protest vote), it's not going to be because of his most famous position, anti-vaccination, which they've already accepted by supporting him to this point. It's going to be because they don't share his lesser known positions on things like environmental racism, immigration, medical racism, police reform, reparations for slavery, free birth control, and mandatory diversity training.

At the end of the day, a strong RFK Jr. campaign exacerbates Biden's problems with Democratic-leaning minority voters. Even if he pulls about evenly from both candidates in polls now, if he gets down to 5% in November 2024, that will all be at Biden's expense. We've moved past the pretty ridiculous question of whether he can cost Biden the nomination, but he can definitely cost Biden his re-election in a close race.

A significant amount of the black male voters RFK Jr might get are entirely nonvoters or unreliable voters. There's no effect to Biden as these sort of voters already dislike Biden and are disaffected with Democrats for a whole host of reasons but they aren't exactly spoilers. I haven't exactly seen any sort of news that RFK Jr is successfully reaching out to these types of voters and I have my ways of keeping up with this sort of thing.

The few contrarian lumpens and disaffected shopkeepers in the ghetto seem to vote for Trump anyway. Besides, most of Democratic campaign messaging is female-coded and driven anyway.

I don't firmly disagree with most of this and should have second most Democratic constituency if you split by gender. But the idea that RFK is going to make serious inroads with Trump voters (but not Biden voters because they're such big fans of vaccines) while preaching about environmental racism and DEI is one of the craziest that's caught on with this forum in my time here.

These black voters don’t vote in general and wouldn’t even without Covid-19 because the Democratic Party is perceived as too feminine for them.

[robocop]

This has more Perot potential than the Democrats on here are able to believe. If you told me he got 10% of the vote I wouldn’t be surprised.

If Kennedy wins 10% of the vote, then Joe Biden is winning in a landslide.

Nope little bro

https://twitter.com/iapolls2022/status/1708878614387691774?s=46&t=J_equ31A3o...

How about polls in different STATES? That is what matters.
Why do people bother with national polls when they are not what matters most?

[Stranger in a strange land]

This has more Perot potential than the Democrats on here are able to believe. If you told me he got 10% of the vote I wouldn’t be surprised.

If Kennedy wins 10% of the vote, then Joe Biden is winning in a landslide.

Nope little bro

https://twitter.com/iapolls2022/status/1708878614387691774?s=46&t=J_equ31A3o...

How about polls in different STATES? That is what matters.
Why do people bother with national polls when they are not what matters most?

More to the point, there is no way that RFK Jr is getting 14% of the vote nor that he's taking more support from Biden than Trump. At most he might be getting some very soft Biden voters who are looking for an excuse to not vote for him and won't vote for him anyway. This reflects voters being unsatisfied with both Biden and Trump, not any real support for RFK Jr.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kennedy hasn't declared anything yet but we are in a Pandemic, Kennedy won't get 14 percentage pts anyways more like 3/5 percentage no one has gotten more than 8 since Perot

He won't win outright he won't win a single EC VOTE

[Bandit3 the Worker]

He should really have more than 14%.

How did Ross Perot end up with so many votes? In some of the early polls in the 1992 cycle, Perot was actually winning, even though most people didn't even know who he was yet.

[Comrade Funk]

https://twitter.com/JordanChariton/status/1709945932689899557

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Watch as he gets on the ballot in like 20 states and 0.1% of the popular vote.

[They not like us]

This is now the third party label he's attempted to run under since launching his campaign.