2024 Third Party and Independent Candidate General discussion

[Rand]

Good for Biden.

[DaleCooper]

I'm curious to see what the Trump campaign's response will be, since word on the street is they are aware that he will take more votes from him than Biden. I guess all they can do is start accusing him of being a Radical Liberal and hope they can undo the right's boosting of him over the past few months. Fox News can criticize him all they want but RFK Jr. has already made his way into the Joe Rogan / Jordan Peterson algorithm and that's distant enough from Republican media that it may be too late to undo all the damage.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm curious to see what the Trump campaign's response will be, since word on the street is they are aware that he will take more votes from him than Biden. I guess all they can do is start accusing him of being a Radical Liberal and hope they can undo the right's boosting of him over the past few months. Fox News can criticize him all they want but RFK Jr. has already made his way into the Joe Rogan / Jordan Peterson algorithm and that's distant enough from Republican media that it may be too late to undo all the damage.

Probably just ignore him, as Biden will do.

[DaleCooper]

I'm curious to see what the Trump campaign's response will be, since word on the street is they are aware that he will take more votes from him than Biden. I guess all they can do is start accusing him of being a Radical Liberal and hope they can undo the right's boosting of him over the past few months. Fox News can criticize him all they want but RFK Jr. has already made his way into the Joe Rogan / Jordan Peterson algorithm and that's distant enough from Republican media that it may be too late to undo all the damage.

Probably just ignore him, as Biden will do.

Yeah, that's really all they can do I suppose, but I really do think RFK could get a solid 1-2% of the vote at the very least in most swing states, and that's coming from Trump.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm curious to see what the Trump campaign's response will be, since word on the street is they are aware that he will take more votes from him than Biden. I guess all they can do is start accusing him of being a Radical Liberal and hope they can undo the right's boosting of him over the past few months. Fox News can criticize him all they want but RFK Jr. has already made his way into the Joe Rogan / Jordan Peterson algorithm and that's distant enough from Republican media that it may be too late to undo all the damage.

Probably just ignore him, as Biden will do.

Yeah, that's really all they can do I suppose, but I really do think RFK could get a solid 1-2% of the vote at the very least in most swing states, and that's coming from Trump.

You're assuming he even gets on the ballot in most swing states.

[Birdish]

At the very least, it prevents the "Biden getting embarrassed in New Hampshire" scenario that seemed so prevalent a few months back.

[DaleCooper]

I'm curious to see what the Trump campaign's response will be, since word on the street is they are aware that he will take more votes from him than Biden. I guess all they can do is start accusing him of being a Radical Liberal and hope they can undo the right's boosting of him over the past few months. Fox News can criticize him all they want but RFK Jr. has already made his way into the Joe Rogan / Jordan Peterson algorithm and that's distant enough from Republican media that it may be too late to undo all the damage.

Probably just ignore him, as Biden will do.

Yeah, that's really all they can do I suppose, but I really do think RFK could get a solid 1-2% of the vote at the very least in most swing states, and that's coming from Trump.

You're assuming he even gets on the ballot in most swing states.

If he's serious about running independent then he can get ballot access in the states that don't have difficult requirements.

[°Leprechaun]

Does that help Williamson at all?

[Roll Roons]

Statement from his siblings:
https://twitter.com/KerryKennedyRFK/status/1711419719683559659

[Birdish]

Does that help Williamson at all?

I'm sure there are plenty of "anybody but Biden" protest votes. If she's still on the ballot come primary season, it's very likely people will vote for her by default.

[wbrocks67]

Does that help Williamson at all?

I'm sure there are plenty of "anybody but Biden" protest votes. If she's still on the ballot come primary season, it's very likely people will vote for her by default.

I wonder if she will be. Her campaign has been running on fumes for a while now, I'd be surprised if she even makes it to the primaries at this point.

[Birdish]

Does that help Williamson at all?

I'm sure there are plenty of "anybody but Biden" protest votes. If she's still on the ballot come primary season, it's very likely people will vote for her by default.

I wonder if she will be. Her campaign has been running on fumes for a while now, I'd be surprised if she even makes it to the primaries at this point.

It seems like we haven't gotten any news out of her campaign in months. With RFK out of the way, I could see Williamson's getting some new life as the anti-Biden democrat, but I'd also agree that it's not guaranteed she makes it to South Carolina and New Hamsphire in the first place.

[Podgy the Bear]

At the very least, it prevents the "Biden getting embarrassed in New Hampshire" scenario that seemed so prevalent a few months back.

And Democrats in New Hampshire can cross over to the Republican side to weaken Trump.

[flyboy1058]

Good for Biden.

NO! BAD FOR BIDEN!!!
He will take votes AWAY from Biden!
Do your homework third party candidates and then he will change your mind. They only split the vote and, in many cases, hurt the Democratic president

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Does that help Williamson at all?

I'm sure there are plenty of "anybody but Biden" protest votes. If she's still on the ballot come primary season, it's very likely people will vote for her by default.

I wonder if she will be. Her campaign has been running on fumes for a while now, I'd be surprised if she even makes it to the primaries at this point.

I wouldn't be surprised if come December some late entry (like a Dean Phillips) gets in the race and totally replaces Williamson and RFK Jr. as the Democratic alternative to Biden.

[Rand]

Good for Biden.

NO! BAD FOR BIDEN!!!
He will take votes AWAY from Biden!
Do your homework third party candidates and then he will change your mind. They only split the vote and, in many cases, hurt the Democratic president

The Republican National Committee disagrees.

https://gop.com/research/radical-democrat-rfk-jr-rsr/

[oldtimer]

I believe that is a mistake for him.

[The Mikado]

I'm curious to see what the Trump campaign's response will be, since word on the street is they are aware that he will take more votes from him than Biden. I guess all they can do is start accusing him of being a Radical Liberal and hope they can undo the right's boosting of him over the past few months. Fox News can criticize him all they want but RFK Jr. has already made his way into the Joe Rogan / Jordan Peterson algorithm and that's distant enough from Republican media that it may be too late to undo all the damage.

Probably just ignore him, as Biden will do.

Yeah, that's really all they can do I suppose, but I really do think RFK could get a solid 1-2% of the vote at the very least in most swing states, and that's coming from Trump.

You're assuming he even gets on the ballot in most swing states.

If he's serious about running independent then he can get ballot access in the states that don't have difficult requirements.

The only main swing state that's relatively easy to get on the ballot on in Wisconsin. Some other states aren't impossible but, frankly, the sort of people who work for RFK Jr aren't the most organized, reliable, and dependable in the world. Michigan should be doable by him if he's trying seriously. Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona aren't happening.

Does that help Williamson at all?

I'm sure there are plenty of "anybody but Biden" protest votes. If she's still on the ballot come primary season, it's very likely people will vote for her by default.

I wonder if she will be. Her campaign has been running on fumes for a while now, I'd be surprised if she even makes it to the primaries at this point.

It seems like we haven't gotten any news out of her campaign in months. With RFK out of the way, I could see Williamson's getting some new life as the anti-Biden democrat, but I'd also agree that it's not guaranteed she makes it to South Carolina and New Hamsphire in the first place.

We'll find out some stuff when she releases her Q3 financial report next week but it's likely her campaign is basically broke.

That said, I do think in states where she gets her name on the ballot she becomes the magnet of the "I just want to vote against Biden" primary protest voters. As the only such person in a lot of states she could break double digits in some places, and maybe the 15% viability threshold in a few.

There are other no name nobodies who will get on the ballot in states with just a filing fee on the Dem primary, in fact there's already two of them in NV, but any state that requires even minimal effort won't have that sort. NV filing is open for another week and so far the only candidates who have filed are Armando "Mando" Perez-Serrato and Brent Foutz, both absolute nobodies. Serious candidates usually file on the very last day so I'm not surprised Biden and Williamson aren't on the list yet.

[Senator Incitatus]

Statement from his siblings:
[tweet]

Clearly they're Trump supporters.

[jman123]

Which states would be RFK JR best states?

[TML]

Probably states with substantial shares of voters who are registered as Democrats but who have been voting Republican in recent election cycles.

[Medal506]

I'm curious to see what the Trump campaign's response will be, since word on the street is they are aware that he will take more votes from him than Biden. I guess all they can do is start accusing him of being a Radical Liberal and hope they can undo the right's boosting of him over the past few months. Fox News can criticize him all they want but RFK Jr. has already made his way into the Joe Rogan / Jordan Peterson algorithm and that's distant enough from Republican media that it may be too late to undo all the damage.

Probably just ignore him, as Biden will do.

Yeah, that's really all they can do I suppose, but I really do think RFK could get a solid 1-2% of the vote at the very least in most swing states, and that's coming from Trump.

That’s devastating for Trump if that’s the case. I don’t think he’ll be able to overcome that. He may as well just drop out and let DeSantis or Ramaswamy take the fall in the general election.

[BlueSwan]

You guys are seriously crazy if you really think RFK running independently hurts Trump more than it hurts Biden. Trump has got the conspiratorial loon vote absolutely sewn up.

[jman123]

Probably states with substantial shares of voters who are registered as Democrats but who have been voting Republican in recent election cycles.

In other words a Trump spoiler?

[jman123]

Describe to me a 2024 RFK JR Third party voter