India 2021 assembly elections - TN, Kerala, WB, Assam, and perhaps J&K

[jaichind]

Parakala Prabhakar, the husband of India's Finance Minister, Nirmala Sitharam, came out very strongly against Prime Minister Narendra Modi's management of the Covid pandemic.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vu2ryLPOME4

At first, I thought they might have been separated, but they are still together. Prabhakar was a leading member of the Andra Pradesh BJP, but he seems to be an independent policy analyst these days. Even still, it's surprising to see him criticising Modi.

Well, BJP does not have much of a base in AP.  So unless the BJP is allied with YSCP or TDP the chances of Nirmala Sitharam being reelected for RS is low.  Since Nirmala Sitharam's political career is less about BJP and more about YSRCP or TDP I guess Parakala Prabhakar is more free to speak his mind.

[jaichind]

I think they are wise to make this bet.  I think the result will either be a decisive victory for BJP or a decisive victory for AITC.  If Ground Zero polling show a narrow AITC lead I would come out with a projection of a decisive AITC victory.  Since WB has a tendency to have decisive victory and Ground Zero has AITC ahead they might as well predict a deceive AITC victory.  If the BJP wins they are going to look bad anyway.  If AITC wins by a large margin they will look very good.

Isn't that a bit non-scientific? I would have assumed pollsters would publish the data as it is, subject to corrections for sampling bias etc.

I am just guessing at what is going on.  I am assuming that Ground Zero has to weight the raw data they get.  I am saying if that is the case I can see them taking a call that a more pro-AITC weight in terms of turnout patterns more fit the narrative of a decisive victory.  All speculation of course.  And to be fair they might be right.  Axis My India which has been pretty accurate last few cycles always comes out as the outlier project that has a decisive result and are usually accurate when compared to other pollsters that tend to herd.

[CumbrianLefty]

Absoutley terrible Modi can be such a disaster and still have his popularity.

Welcome to my world

[jaichind]

Pretty funny cartoon from the English language media anti-Modi crowd

Who to blame


At the ground level I am still pretty sure the impact on the Modi/BJP image is not large.  I think what could change this is a repeat of last year's lockdown and migrant worker crisis.  Now BJP being a cadre party also means in such a crisis pro-BJP groups will also be the ones spearheading helping the migrant works thrown out of a job and even mitigate that impact.

[jaichind]

COVID-19 surge does not seem to have not stopped sizeable rallies in Telangana by the BJP and TRS for some urban local bodies elections.  The BJP picture was tweeted by Telangana BJP before they took it down.

[jaichind]

Tomorrow will be the 8th and final phase of WB assembly elections.  Right after voting ends exit polls for all 5 states/UT can be published.  May 2nd will be counting day for all 5 states/UT.

[eos]

I think they are wise to make this bet.  I think the result will either be a decisive victory for BJP or a decisive victory for AITC.  If Ground Zero polling show a narrow AITC lead I would come out with a projection of a decisive AITC victory.  Since WB has a tendency to have decisive victory and Ground Zero has AITC ahead they might as well predict a deceive AITC victory.  If the BJP wins they are going to look bad anyway.  If AITC wins by a large margin they will look very good.

Isn't that a bit non-scientific? I would have assumed pollsters would publish the data as it is, subject to corrections for sampling bias etc.

I am just guessing at what is going on.  I am assuming that Ground Zero has to weight the raw data they get.  I am saying if that is the case I can see them taking a call that a more pro-AITC weight in terms of turnout patterns more fit the narrative of a decisive victory.  All speculation of course.  And to be fair they might be right.  Axis My India which has been pretty accurate last few cycles always comes out as the outlier project that has a decisive result and are usually accurate when compared to other pollsters that tend to herd.

It would be fascinating to see them publish their methodology.

[eos]

https://twitter.com/Morewithshashi/with_replies

Big Prediction: There is a high probability that the #BJP is likely to win more than 100 seats.

Seems like Ground Zero is angling for TMC 160-170+, BJP 100+ and INC/LEFT 20(?).

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/Morewithshashi/with_replies

Big Prediction: There is a high probability that the #BJP is likely to win more than 100 seats.

Seems like Ground Zero is angling for TMC 160-170+, BJP 100+ and INC/LEFT 20(?).

Most pre-exit poll predictions have a clear pattern.  It is either AITC 170-190 to BJP 80-100 or the other way around.

[jaichind]

First exit polls should be coming out in 20-30 min or so.

[jaichind]

ABP-CVOTER EXIT POLL for WB
AITC - 152-164           42%
BJP - 109-121            39%
Left-Congress - 14-25 15%



Assam: My Axis
BJP 75 to 85     48%
Cong 40 to 50   40%
Others 1 to 4    12%

[jaichind]

Assam Exit Poll: CNX

BJP+: 74-84
Congress+: 40-50
Others:1-3

WB Exit poll: CNX
BJP 138-148
AITC 128-138

[jaichind]

Poll Diary for Assam has UPA ahead

[jaichind]

C Voter Exit Poll for WB

AITC : 152-164
BJP : 109-122
OTH : 14-25

[jaichind]

Exit poll - Republic TV -
DMK+ 160 - 170
ADMK+ 58 - 68
Others 4 - 6

[jaichind]

India ahead ETG research WB exit poll

TMC 165 to 176
BJP 105 to 116

[jaichind]

India ahead TN exit poll

[jaichind]

Kerala exit poll.  Neck-to-neck

[jaichind]

Republic-CNX exit poll for Puducherry

NDA : 16-20
UPA : 11-13

[jaichind]

Poll Diary exit poll for Kerala has LDF slightly ahead

[jaichind]

Pro-DMK Sun News exit poll for TN

[jaichind]

WB poll of polls by Times Now

[jaichind]

Pro-BJP Today's Chanakya exit poll for Assam
BJP+ 70 ± 9 Seats       43%
Cong+ 56 ± 9 Seats     43%
Others 00 ± 3 Seats

[jaichind]

TV9 Bharatvarsh - POLSTRAT exit poll for Assam

BJP+: 59-69
CONG+: 55-65
AJP: 1-3

[jaichind]

NDTV poll of poll for TN