Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[Dorko Julio]

Reuters/Ipsos poll

https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-BIDEN/POLL/nmopagnqapa/index.html

Approve: 36% (-6)
Disapprove: 59% (+9)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

You Gov has 42 it's not 36 percent

https://twitter.com/YouGovAmerica?t=ba8L9Px-PO1KHvxr8_j8Xw&s=09

All these posters posting job Approvals 70 percent thought we were on the wrong track anyways during Trump the whole 2020 the upticks in Approvals were due to stimulus checks and the Govt said they did all they could do for Americans, Manchin said that with the Rs, in Dec, as far as Stimulus, but they are giving our stimulus to Ukraine, but rents have gone thru the roof , no Section 8 vouchers, due to immigrants got them and inflation and not only that Rs are Filibustering Gun control, Voting Rights and Climate change in BBB

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Rs get into office there isn't gonna be any climate change or Gun control they are gonna pass more tax cuts or maybe a Gas tax holiday like they are doing at the state level they blocked Climate change in BBB on purpose so just like in 2014 they can open up Keystone and it takes a long time to build Keystone it was only 6 percent complete with Biden took over

[philly09]

Echelon Insghts
1020 RV May 20-23

44% Approve (=)

54% Disapprove (=)

Rassmussen/Pulse Opinon Research
1500 LV May 22-24

43% Approve (+3)

56% Disapprove (-2)

Morning Consult
2005 RV May 20-22

42% Approve (+1)

56% Disapprove (=)

[philly09]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, May 21-24, 1500 adults including 1332 RV

Adults:

Approve 41 (nc)
Disapprove 49 (-1)

Strongly approve 15 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 37 (+1)

RV:

Approve 44 (+1)
Disapprove 51 (nc)

Strongly approve 17 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 40 (+2)

GCB (RV only): R 44 (+4), D 40 (-2)

Looking through the crosstabs of these YouGov polls, I see the it's a largely southern, non college educated, under 50k, over 45 sample.

[philly09]

Some very good numbers for Democrats in the "If the election was held today, who would you vote for in your district?"

https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2022/05/24132604/2205143_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v2_SH_05-25-22.pdf

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Interesting how Dems are still performing decently despite Biden’s approvals, shows that whilst Biden is unpopular, ppl don’t want to go back to Trump just yet.

[wbrocks67]

Interesting how Dems are still performing decently despite Biden’s approvals, shows that whilst Biden is unpopular, ppl don’t want to go back to Trump just yet.

This is all mostly explained by what we've talked about for a while now. Most of the reason Biden's approvals are less than average right now is because of Biden or left-leaning voters who will still vote D openly saying they disapprove.

Biden's approval should not be used as a proxy for D support right now.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Interesting how Dems are still performing decently despite Biden’s approvals, shows that whilst Biden is unpopular, ppl don’t want to go back to Trump just yet.

But, you have an R nut map and Evers and CCM aren't losing in a 303 scenario SISOLAK is ahead 46(33

All the Rs says that Lake is a shoe in and pull Masters or Brnovich and she's behind 50/45 Rs haven't won the popular vote since 2014

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Interesting how Dems are still performing decently despite Biden’s approvals, shows that whilst Biden is unpopular, ppl don’t want to go back to Trump just yet.

But, you have an R nut map and Evers and CCM aren't losing in a 303 scenario SISOLAK is ahead 46(33

All the Rs says that Lake is a shoe in and pull Masters or Brnovich and she's behind 50/45 Rs haven't won the popular vote since 2014

I don’t think the nights gonna be great for Dems, I just find it interesting how gop is not performing as well as they could be

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Interesting how Dems are still performing decently despite Biden’s approvals, shows that whilst Biden is unpopular, ppl don’t want to go back to Trump just yet.

But, you have an R nut map and Evers and CCM aren't losing in a 303 scenario SISOLAK is ahead 46(33

All the Rs says that Lake is a shoe in and pull Masters or Brnovich and she's behind 50/45 Rs haven't won the popular vote since 2014

I don’t think the nights gonna be great for Dems, I just find it interesting how gop is not performing as well as they could be

I just put the polls in Poliquin is losing to Golden and Lake is losing to Hobbs,I do these polls for a living in Undergrad during the Gingrich Revolution Carol Moseley Braun almost came back on Peter Fitzgerald because of what UNDERPOLLING single and minority people we are a 303 Nation no different than what we were in 2020

Hobbs and Golden are leading decisively 50/45

pbower2A whom is Missing said of an incumbent is struggling it's 50 percent not 45 percent and Biden is tracking in Rassy polls 45/54 the only reason why Trump at the same Approvals lost 33 seats on the H but net gained 2 in Senate at 40/54 he was being impeached for Ukraine

Pritzker isn't gonna win by 12 pts to Irvin who is a non TRUMP Black man, is gonna win by 5 give him 2 automatically and plus 3 for black and brown voters, the same with Whitner, Evers and Shapiro give them give or take 2/ pts for black and brown voters and SISOLAK

I am in Chicago now and Irvin and Bailey are running ads tying Pritzker to Rod Blagojevich

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Interesting how Dems are still performing decently despite Biden’s approvals, shows that whilst Biden is unpopular, ppl don’t want to go back to Trump just yet.

It means that people are tiring of the whole, "Oh jeez this is no good, let's just pass the ball back to the other guys" crap.  Bad news being that effective opposition to politicians who are failing to deliver does not exist.  Good news is that people are starting to recognize and vocalize it. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I can't guarantee a 303 map with this Ukraine war but looking at non Rust belt polling in AZ Gov and ME 2 where Hobbs and Golden are leading 50/45 by the same margin Biden won the 303 map bye in 2020 it's a 303 map what did we learn last time if an election is close with provisions ballots, military ballots aren't gonna save Rs because Gays and Females make the military ballots instead of 80/20 65/35 R

Users always think they are underpolling white votes, that was what the insurrection was about white votes thinking Blk and brown voters are taking votes away, there is no way Evers abd CCM and Sisolak loses and Hobbs and Kelly and Golden are leading 50/45 they would be behind

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Interesting how Dems are still performing decently despite Biden’s approvals, shows that whilst Biden is unpopular, ppl don’t want to go back to Trump just yet.

But, you have an R nut map and Evers and CCM aren't losing in a 303 scenario SISOLAK is ahead 46(33

All the Rs says that Lake is a shoe in and pull Masters or Brnovich and she's behind 50/45 Rs haven't won the popular vote since 2014

I don’t think the nights gonna be great for Dems, I just find it interesting how gop is not performing as well as they could be

College educated whites trending Democratic helps even more in the midterms. White working class turnout is lower, while college educated whites have higher turnout.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's been a 303 map 2012/16/18(20 the only exception was 2008/10/14

2008 it was a political realignment, 2010/2014 we went from a 413 map back to a 303 map now it's 303 and as long as COVID sticks around it's 303 because Trump voters in the Deep S are gonna keep calling it the Biden virus and vaccine like my father did and he paid the ultimate price for it, he died with his COVID

The Rs have kept the H 16)20 election and D's have kept the Prez in 16/20 election and the S has been 50/50 alternating back and forth between D/R control

That's why Ds are poised to keep the S we don't know what type of H we're gonna get with a 303 map but in 2018 we won Red Districts while we lost statewide Gov and S races in Red states

LET ME SAY THIS ONE FINAL TIME AS I POSTED THE ME 2, AZ POLLS THAT SHOWS HOBBS AND GOLDEN LEADING 50/45 BY THE EXACT MARGIN BIDEN WON 2020 BYE 50/45 AND 303 MAP, DS OUTNUMBER RS SINCE 2008 65/60M IT WAS 69/59M IN 2008, 65/60m in 2012/65/62M in 2016 and 80(/75M in 2020

.DS OWN THE GREAT LAKES, CALI AND NY, 4 MAIN METROS SF/LA/CHI/NY

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Interesting how Dems are still performing decently despite Biden’s approvals, shows that whilst Biden is unpopular, ppl don’t want to go back to Trump just yet.

It means that people are tiring of the whole, "Oh jeez this is no good, let's just pass the ball back to the other guys" crap.  Bad news being that effective opposition to politicians who are failing to deliver does not exist.  Good news is that people are starting to recognize and vocalize it. 

Or the more likely reason: these generic ballot polls are wrong and systematically biased in a way that favors dems. Just like how they were so, so terribly wrong in 2020.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Interesting how Dems are still performing decently despite Biden’s approvals, shows that whilst Biden is unpopular, ppl don’t want to go back to Trump just yet.

It means that people are tiring of the whole, "Oh jeez this is no good, let's just pass the ball back to the other guys" crap.  Bad news being that effective opposition to politicians who are failing to deliver does not exist.  Good news is that people are starting to recognize and vocalize it.  

Or the more likely reason: these generic ballot polls are wrong and systematically biased in a way that favors dems. Just like how they were so, so terribly wrong in 2020.

They were off on OH, IA, NC, FL and TX they were not wrong but within the margin of error on AZ, NV, NH, PA, MI and WI

For example they had Ds winning NC we lost NC they had Biden winning PA by six, we won PA on Provisional ballots FL they had Ds winning FL we lost FL Ds winning by 4 we won MI by Provisional ballots it's a 303 map the Rs have lost the popular vote since 2014


Do you know it's been a 65/60M Electorate since 2012 303 when Obama and Biden beat Romney, if you look at Election results, study them like I did and you will see, it's only biased in wave insurance not blue states D's outnumber Rs

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We are in a political realignment again where almost every S State except for KY or VA will have R Give by 2025 and the N will certainly have D Govs, D's aren't gonna lose the N like Rs think because Whitmer and Shapiro are very strong and Ron Johnson whom won by 187K votes will bring down Kleefisch because he has a 37 Approval


Ds aren't gonna sweep everything and neither are the Rs 2010 was a totally different animal it was 10 unemployment and 1994 when we lost 60 H seats it was the Gingrich Revolution outside those yrs the inparty in 1998/2002/2014 have been slowly gaining ground in Midterms in 2006 it was Katrina and 2018 S was maintained by Rs but Trump was impeached for Ukraine .

We just have to wait till we see and core nothing is over until we finish Voting are the D's in trouble yes but it's not gonna be a wipeout

We don't know what type of H we're gonna get with a 303 map, is the H a longshot yes, but we won Red Districts in a 303 map in 2018

2020 we saw 150M votes because we had stimulus checks, 400 extra Unemployment, George Floyd and we thought Pandemic was ending due to vaccine but as we found out Flu like COVID is still around Vaccines contains the flu and COVID but doesn't end it

My Dad was an antivaccer and died with other medical issues with COVID, I told him to get the vaccine and chosed not to, my mother had flus and refused to get the flu shot with other medical ailments she died too but that was Pre COVID in 2015 we know now as the rest of my family is vaccinated including my aging Aunt's, moms sisters vaccines save lives

[GeorgiaModerate]

OK, here's one that's so ridiculous I have to post it so people can laugh at it.

Greenberg Research/Climate Policy Strategy, April 12-19, 2000 adults (online survey)

Approve 52
Disapprove 48

[GeorgiaModerate]

Michigan: Detroit Regional Chamber, May 9-13, 600 RV

Approve 36
Disapprove 55

However, Governor Whitmer's approval in the state is far ahead of Biden's at 49/41.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a 303 map in 4% unemployment every incumbent Gov except Laura Kelly, Sununu and Kemp may get reelected

It's the same map as 2020

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, May 28-31, 1500 adults including 1280 RV

Adults:

Approve 41 (nc)
Disapprove 50 (+1)

Strongly approve 16 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 39 (+2)

RV:

Approve 43 (-1)
Disapprove 51 (nc)

Strongly approve 17 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 40 (nc)

GCB (RV only): D 43 (+3), R 42 (-2).  Last week's GCB was either a weird outlier or a reporting glitch.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, May 28-31, 1500 adults including 1280 RV

Adults:

Approve 41 (nc)
Disapprove 50 (+1)

Strongly approve 16 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 39 (+2)

RV:

Approve 43 (-1)
Disapprove 51 (nc)

Strongly approve 17 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 40 (nc)

GCB (RV only): D 43 (+3), R 42 (-2).  Last week's GCB was either a weird outlier or a reporting glitch.

I’d say that was probably the case with Ipsos as well

[MT Treasurer]

NEW HAMPSHIRE (NH Journal/Praecones Analytica, May 25-26, n=526)

39% Approve
57% Disapprove (-18)

https://patch.com/new-hampshire/across-nh/new-poll-3-4-granite-staters-say-border-security-important-issue-2022

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LATINO VOTERS ONLY (Bendixen & Amandi International, May 12-18, n=1800)

Arizona - 50% Approve, 48% Disapprove (+2)

Florida - 36% Approve, 63% Disapprove (-27)

Nevada - 53% Approve, 45% Disapprove (+8)

Pennsylvania - 62% Approve, 34% Disapprove (+28)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump won FL by 3 pts and Deming's is down by six that's not 30 Approvals

What about Blk votes there should poll them too but they don't care but Latinx