Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Two things seem to be true:

Polarization means Biden will have low (by historical standards) approvals throughout his time in office, and there will be major losses for Democrats in the midterms. The approvals we've seen for Biden and Trump represent a new era in approvals, very little range either way once you're out of the honeymoon. Biden may recover, but won't be much over 50%.

Polarization means it doesn't really matter exactly what Biden's approvals are, come 2024 he'll be competitive because he's the incumbent president and only a small amount of voters and states are persuadable. Same reason Trump almost won despite low approvals.

• Trump was heavily understimated by polls
• Trump had perfected the EV edge

If you really think, approvals doesn't matter... well, ok.

My rough estimation of Biden's chances given his approvals in nov 2024

• ~40% DOA
• ~45% competitive
• ~50% easy win

[Person Man]

Two things seem to be true:

Polarization means Biden will have low (by historical standards) approvals throughout his time in office, and there will be major losses for Democrats in the midterms. The approvals we've seen for Biden and Trump represent a new era in approvals, very little range either way once you're out of the honeymoon. Biden may recover, but won't be much over 50%.

Polarization means it doesn't really matter exactly what Biden's approvals are, come 2024 he'll be competitive because he's the incumbent president and only a small amount of voters and states are persuadable. Same reason Trump almost won despite low approvals.

• Trump was heavily understimated by polls
• Trump had perfected the EV edge

If you really think, approvals doesn't matter... well, ok.

My rough estimation of Biden's chances given his approvals in nov 2024

• ~40% DOA
• ~45% competitive
• ~50% easy win

And even then, if he is where he is today (probably as bad as it gets without us going into a full blown recession or losing a war), his floor is probably Colorado (he could lose Virginia by 1%) and his ceiling is probably Michigan. He probably does as well Hillary.

In mid case scenario, it probably comes down to Wisconsin or Pennsylvania though he might keep Georgia and Arizona.

In the latter scenario, the only two states that will be in contention are North Carolina and maybe Wisconsin if it is really getting that conservative that quickly.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a blue wall 304 scenario Kelly was ahead 43/39  in the last polls but if that's the case D's aren't gonna keep the H in that scenario, TX and FL D's will get shellacked in and Rs would carry the H

Nate Silver 304 blue wall

But, whom can we blame Manchin and Simema for not passing VR that would ban gerrymandering even in WI the gerrymandering is bad

Sinema repeated the mantra on keeping the Filibuster ok View without any Town Halls but if Rs take control of the H and another Govt Shutdown looms or investigate Hunter Biden or Afghanistan they won't be listening to Manchin and Simema they both can be gone in 24

[Barack Oganja]

Two things seem to be true:

Polarization means Biden will have low (by historical standards) approvals throughout his time in office, and there will be major losses for Democrats in the midterms. The approvals we've seen for Biden and Trump represent a new era in approvals, very little range either way once you're out of the honeymoon. Biden may recover, but won't be much over 50%.

Polarization means it doesn't really matter exactly what Biden's approvals are, come 2024 he'll be competitive because he's the incumbent president and only a small amount of voters and states are persuadable. Same reason Trump almost won despite low approvals.

• Trump was heavily understimated by polls
• Trump had perfected the EV edge

If you really think, approvals doesn't matter... well, ok.

My rough estimation of Biden's chances given his approvals in nov 2024

• ~40% DOA
• ~45% competitive
• ~50% easy win

Even if and when inflation goes down and covid goes away, there is a very limited range for Biden's approvals, he'll be competitive in the EC regardless

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

People saying Biden is DOA are really underestimating how polarized we are. Trump’s approval ratings were in the mid to high 30s at this time and he still came within 45K votes of winning re-election.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

People saying Biden is DOA are really underestimating how polarized we are. Trump’s approval ratings were in the mid to high 30s at this time and he still came within 45K votes of winning re-election.

This blog really loves to fight straw men and windmills. I said, Biden is likely is DOA, if his approvals are at ~40% on election day.

For reference:
Trump was at ~45% per 538 (and 538 overestimated Biden-Trump margin by 4%)
Trump was at at 50% per exit polls (ABC)
- had EC edge of 3.7%


If anything, I was too generous, saying Biden needs ~45% (on election day) to be competitive.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

People saying Biden is DOA are really underestimating how polarized we are. Trump’s approval ratings were in the mid to high 30s at this time and he still came within 45K votes of winning re-election.

The House is most likely R while S is gonna be D . The  Map is gonna follow the Blue wall but a Landslide Election is not in the cards bad news for Pelosi gerrymandering Districts in TX and FL isn't gonna bring Gov Crist, Demings or Beasley but most likely Fetterman, Warnock and Barnes

It was always that case unless Covid was Eradicated, Biden won 60/45 and landslide would be a 60/40 map and Biden wasn't gonna be anywhere near 60 without a fourth Stimulus which he was at under the 3rd Stimulus


Biden can easily be at 50/45 come Election night but he needs wave insurance to win the H and most likely that won't happen he botched immigration reform

[Inmate Trump]

People saying Biden is DOA are really underestimating how polarized we are. Trump’s approval ratings were in the mid to high 30s at this time and he still came within 45K votes of winning re-election.

There’s enough time to turn things around.  But he’s in a terrible place and the Democratic Party even more so.  In short, he needs to turns things around drastically and fast if he hopes to have any significant amount of Democratic members in the House and Senate.  After next year his agenda will be almost totally stalled.  And also to give him time to bounce back enough in time for 2024…that work needs to start NOW.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/PollsandOdds/status/1461775434153177095?s=20

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Pbower2A is especially quiet he said AZ was  definitely a D Lean State it's still a purple one

Anyone can beat McSally the Ds haven't beaten anyone else aside from her

I don't have to donate a penny to Ds, tjey can still win with MI, WI, PA and one from VA, GA and AZ but no Pbower2A Nut maps

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/PollWatch2020/status/1461800671716519946?s=20

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden would instantly get back to 50 if Congress passed not just child credits but another 1400 or 1200 dollars, but Employers are complaining about job shortages

People are milking Disability the ones that's been on it it longer than 5 yrs and not going to ticket to work you work part time while you are building yourself up for a full time job to weed off Disability

People are stuck on Disability and ticket to work was very popular on 2019 and before the Pandemic


Let the Evidence show that the job shortages come from Social Security and Disability, people retired Early

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Gee pbower2A is quiet again

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/PollWatch2020/status/1461800671716519946?s=20

That’s not as good given it’s an R internal. It’s not bad but still.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's still a 278 map D's can win MI, PA and WI unless Shapiro, Whitmer and Evers loses and that gives D's 265 with CO and NV, then D's only need VA, AZ or GA to get to 270


NRA  have no influence ON THE 278 BLUE WALL

BUT, pbower2A is Quiet because there aren't anymore NUT MAPS with TX, FL, NC, IA and OH abd the D's might lose the H based on TX and FL Redistricting since Abbott and DeSantis are heavy favs

But c'mon Beto and Demings were destined to lose, with the Rittenhouse verdict Beto and Demings are too left wing on guns in TX and FL with STAND YOUR GROUND LAWS IN EFFECT IN BOTH STATES

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden will be at 50/45 on Election night that is a 304 not a 413 map but it will depend on CA, IK, TX, FL and NY Redistricting to see if Ds win the H.


Very narrow path for Ryan, Beasley or Dems but if anyone win ita Ryan flawed candidate Josh Mandel


But, in 24 it's a different animal, it's still 304 but Covid will most likely be gone


MI, WI, PA, CO, NV and NH 265 and 1 from VA, AZ or GA gets us to 270  FL, IA, TX, OH or NC, they are for NUT MAPS doesn't matter that's why it's a 50/45 Approvals, but due to Debt Ceiling we're not getting a fourth stimulus check if it passes Biden would INSTANTLY get back to where he was in March, but Employers are complaining about Job shortages because people on Disability are MILKING it and won't after 5 yrs get on Ticket to Work they permanentLY retired

Ticket to work was popular 2019 or before Pandemic, I had friends do ticket to work when I was a Guard, but if you have a perm Disability and in a Wheelchair by every means stay on SSA

5 yrs or more you are milking Disability insurance, that's why they cut off 2 yr Unemployment with 300

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/PollsandOdds/status/1461775434153177095?s=20

Biden approval:


positive and 55% or higher
positive and between 50% and 54%
positive and under 50%
white: tie
negativeand between 45% and 49%
negative and between 40% and 45%
negative and  below 40%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Last poll had Kelly 43/39 v Brnovich Kelly will win but Rs usually win AZ Gov races due to Gun control

No question the Rittenhouse verdict helps Rs where NRA is strong AZ, oH,FL and TX GOV AND OH, NC and FL SEN, THNKS TO SUNEMA AND MANCHIN, NOT PASSING VR, RS HAVE GERRYMANDERING MAOS IN oH, TX and NC

Beto, abd Demings aren't winning they are too left wing on Guns abd Stand your ground laws are enforced in SOUTH

Like they we4 gonna win anyways, OH smS and NC are still intriguing as soon as we get polls but pollster love to.poll Latino states AZ,, FL, NV that's why we're not getting certain polls

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden low Approvals aren't like Trump that's why he is still Fav for the 278, Biden is crooked not giving us a fourth stimulus but gives 450K to immigrants, but Trump was an insurrectionist criminal, with Russia and Benghazi

But, Biden low Approvals stems from anxiety over dealing with Covid after he said he would crush it, 10 months into PREZ

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Biden low Approvals aren't like Trump that's why he is still Fav for the 278, Biden is crooked not giving us a fourth stimulus but gives 450K to immigrants, but Trump was an insurrectionist criminal, with Russia and Benghazi

But, Biden low Approvals stems from anxiety over dealing with Covid after he said he would crush it, 10 months into PREZ

What about 304?

[BG-NY]

Is this oc's map?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

GA isn't tilt D it's overrated as a D lean State Warnock only won because he promised 2K checks and there arent any and Abrams might not even run and Warnock is headed for a Runoff


Warnock win by the same margin Biden won WI by

[BG-NY]

GA isn't tilt D it's overrated as a D lean State Warnock only won because he promised 2K checks and there arent any and Abrams might not even run and Warnock is headed for a Runoff


Warnock win by the same margin Biden won WI by

Then how do you get to 278?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

VA will give us 278 because Kaine is gonna get reelected he is on the ballot in 24 and no one is gonna beat him

Don't forget all out US House candidates weren't on the ballot when Terry ran for Gov only statewide not Federal races were up, if Soanburger and other House candidates ran, Terry lost her district, the outcome would be different

[VBM]

These polls are flawed Biden polls are gonna slowly improve

Congratulations on attaining the third-highest post count of all time.

You are so board you keep track of people's post I post alot in the Sports thread too go count your own post, this is very annoying

You need something to do, go to a class, get into school, I am  in Law school , I sleep, I eat, I do t spend every minute on this forum like you people do

Just like people sending me friend request, I post females if you don't notice on my webpage there aren't any females on here except for Virginia, and she isn't sending me a friend request

You guys gets so giddy over a non Stimulant bill called BBB, the thread is full, I will attack if you bother me, the BBB is not giving you a 1400 check and every day the same users post on that thread like they're getting something, news flash there aren't anymore 1400 checks coming in the mail

Go volunteer to someone's campaign instead of counting my post

Are you ok? You seem rather irritable lately