Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's are gonna win GA

[EastwoodS]

D's are gonna win GA

Eh. 🤨

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/SamWangPhD/status/1343002800654053376

Surely nobody would really believe this and boycott the election as a result?  But even if it's a small number, it might make the difference.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

D's are gonna win GA

OC is the anti doomer.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Eleanor Holmes Norton and Maxine Waters said on MSN they are measuring the drapes for DC Statehood, it's obvious, R users are on this forum day after day keep saying D's are done in  GA Runoffs and 2022 elections saying that D's will fail and every race AZ, NV, GA, NC, PA and WI Biden has won the Prez aside from NC

Then Trump's Toopee says that Biden will have after the first month a substaining approvals of Trump and everyone is gonna get vaccinated

McCarthy gained seat in the House due to WC blaming Pelosi for not compromising of stimulus of 1.8T and then he blocks on Xmas 2K.

The more Rs are doing this, Manchin already said will make him go back on his promise to reform the Filibuster, and he will allowing DC Statehood

[forza nocta]

https://twitter.com/SamWangPhD/status/1343002800654053376
Surely nobody would really believe this and boycott the election as a result?  But even if it's a small number, it might make the difference.

I thought this graphic was made by a Dem masquerading as a Republican. But its being shared straight from Lin Wood himself LOL

https://twitter.com/llinwood/status/1342650137382969344?s=21

This is why I laugh when people try to compare this stuff to do what Harrison did in SC lol this is coming right from the Trumpets, not Dem hacks. Who knows what effect this will have, if any, but GOP strategists can’t be happy about this dumb**s

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/SamWangPhD/status/1343002800654053376
Surely nobody would really believe this and boycott the election as a result?  But even if it's a small number, it might make the difference.

I thought this graphic was made by a Dem masquerading as a Republican. But its being shared straight from Lin Wood himself LOL

https://twitter.com/llinwood/status/1342650137382969344?s=21

This is why I laugh when people try to compare this stuff to do what Harrison did in SC lol this is coming right from the Trumpets, not Dem hacks. Who knows what effect this will have, if any, but GOP strategists can’t be happy about this dumb**s

Lin Wood is a Democrat masquerading as a Republican.

[SCNCmod]

https://twitter.com/SamWangPhD/status/1343002800654053376

Surely nobody would really believe this and boycott the election as a result?  But even if it's a small number, it might make the difference.

The latest survey USA poll found that 7% of those who identified as "very conservative"... were boycotting the runoff.  Granted this probably only comes out to 1-2% of the total voting pool- but in a close election, could make the difference.

[Tender Branson]

Is early voting resuming tomorrow (and for how long) ?

I assume there was no early voting this weekend ?

And how long can post ballots be requested and returned ?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Is early voting resuming tomorrow (and for how long) ?

I assume there was no early voting this weekend ?

And how long can post ballots be requested and returned ?

Early voting resumes tomorrow and ends Dec. 31.

A few counties had early voting this weekend (Fulton was one of them) but I think most counties did not.

Absentee ballots can be posted any time as long as they are received by the elections office by the close of polls on Election Day.  Supposedly the USPS is treating all absentee ballots for the runoff as Express Mail.

Absentee ballots can be requested no later than the Friday before Election Day; since Friday is a holiday this year, I assume the deadline would be Thursday.  But with the current mail delays, it's not likely that ballots requested so late would be received in time.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

McCarthy and he gained Seats in Congress due to Pelosi not allowing a vote on 1.8T and then objecting to 2K checks is the ultimate hypocrisy and will be determinative in GA Runoffs

McConnell conceding on 600 checks and the checks were going out this week was helping Perdue and Loeffler, not anylonger

[redjohn]

This might have been asked before, but any idea on whether the wait for results in this race might be similar to November's elections?

[Skill and Chance]

This might have been asked before, but any idea on whether the wait for results in this race might be similar to November's elections?

There seems to be less mail-in voting this time around, so it will probably be somewhat faster. 

Keep in mind there is an insane counting bias in Georgia.  Trump was up 2:1 at one point early in the count.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Seriously, who are these 65k + voters who have thus far voted in the Georgia runoffs who didn't vote in the GE? Some may be people who since turned 18, but that isn't enough to explain all of it, plus I doubt every single person who since turned 18 has been registered.

[forza nocta]

Seriously, who are these 65k + voters who have thus far voted in the Georgia runoffs who didn't vote in the GE? Some may be people who since turned 18, but that isn't enough to explain all of it, plus I doubt every single person who since turned 18 has been registered.

Maybe some could be Dem-leaning folks who don't pay a lot of attention to politics and thought GA was a titanium R state, so voting in the GE would be useless. But they saw GA vote blue and know it's possible for a Dem to win.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Seriously, who are these 65k + voters who have thus far voted in the Georgia runoffs who didn't vote in the GE? Some may be people who since turned 18, but that isn't enough to explain all of it, plus I doubt every single person who since turned 18 has been registered.

Maybe some could be Dem-leaning folks who don't pay a lot of attention to politics and thought GA was a titanium R state, so voting in the GE would be useless. But they saw GA vote blue and know it's possible for a Dem to win.

That’s my thinking. Biden winning GA was best case scenario for Dem chances in this runoff.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Seriously, who are these 65k + voters who have thus far voted in the Georgia runoffs who didn't vote in the GE? Some may be people who since turned 18, but that isn't enough to explain all of it, plus I doubt every single person who since turned 18 has been registered.

Maybe some could be Dem-leaning folks who don't pay a lot of attention to politics and thought GA was a titanium R state, so voting in the GE would be useless. But they saw GA vote blue and know it's possible for a Dem to win.

Hmm, interesting theory. Generally, swing-states tend to have slightly higher turnout than non-swing states, so now that from the public's perception, GA now has potential to go blue, their vopte can actually matter. This is also probably the first time in a long time GA has been this heavily targetted; throughout the 2020 cycle, both campaigns had it as a lower tier priority, so maybe just better outreach of making the election known.

I do wonder though if you can flip the same logic on it's head and say that conservatives who once took the state for granted now feel more of an obligation to GOTV. As someone from NYC, I have stumbeled across some who take NY's status as a blue stronghold for granted.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I do wonder though if you can flip the same logic on it's head and say that conservatives who once took the state for granted now feel more of an obligation to GOTV.

Whites are less than 50% of these new voters and they're coming largely from dense Democratic counties where there are more white liberals so you really can't. At least as far as early votes.

[wbrocks67]

VBM + IN PERSON EARLY
Nov GE: 4.03M (56.5% white, 27.7% black) ---> +28.8 white
12/15: 483K (53.9% white, 33.4% black) ---> +20.5 white
12/16: 715K (54.5% white, 33.1% black) ---> +21.4 white
12/17: 914K (55.0% white, 32.5% black) —> +22.5 white
12/18: 1.12M (55.4% white, 32.0% black) —> +23.4 white
12/19: 1.34M (55.6% white, 31.6% black) —> +24.0 white
12/21: 1.47M (54.4% white, 32.4% black) —> +22.0 white
12/22: 1.68M (54.8% white, 31.9% black) —> +22.9 white
12/23: 1.88M (55.0% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.4 white
12/24: 2.06M (55.5% white, 31.5% black) —> +24.0 white
12/25: 2.07M (55.5% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.9 white
12/27: 2.10M (55.4% white, 31.5% black) —> +23.9 white

VBM requests
Nov GE: 1.78M (51.2% white, 31.4% black) ---> +19.8 white
12/10: 1.17M (53.6% white, 31.2% black) ---> +22.4 white
12/13: 1.25M (53.0% white, 31.6% black) ---> +21.4 white
12/17: 1.28M (52.2% white, 32.0% black) —> +20.2 white
12/18: 1.30M (52.0% white, 32.2% black) —> +19.8 white
12/19: 1.31M (51.8% white, 32.4% black) —> +19.4 white
12/21: 1.32M (51.7% white, 32.4% black) —> +19.3 white
12/22: 1.33M (51.6% white, 32.5% black) —> +19.1 white
12/23: 1.34M (51.5% white, 32.5% black) —> +19.0 white
12/24: 1.35M (51.6% white, 32.7% black) —> +18.9 white
12/25: 1.35M (51.6% white, 32.7% black) —> +18.9 white
12/27: 1.35M (51.6% white, 32.7% black) —> +18.9 white

VBM accepted
Nov GE: 1.32M (53.0% white, 30.3% black) ---> +22.7 white
12/16: 379K (56.9% white, 30.7% black) ---> +26.2 white
12/17: 427K (56.5% white, 31.0% black) —> +25.5 white
12/18: 481K (56.3% white, 30.9% black) —> +25.4 white
12/19: 525K (56.1% white, 30.9% black) —> +25.2 white
12/21: 570K (55.5% white, 31.3% black) —> +24.2 white
12/22: 621K (55.4% white, 31.2% black) —> +24.2 white
12/23: 679K (54.9% white, 31.4% black) —> +23.5 white
12/24: 722K (54.9% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.3 white
12/25: 725K (54.9% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.3 white
12/27: 735K (54.8% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.2 white

IN PERSON EARLY votes
Nov GE: 2.69M (58.2% white, 26.4% black) ---> +31.8 white
12/16: 336K (51.9% white, 35.8% black) ---> +16.1 white
12/17: 487K (53.7% white, 33.9% black) —> +19.8 white
12/18: 642K (54.7% white, 32.8% black) —> +21.9 white
12/19: 812K (55.3% white, 32.0% black) —> +23.3 white
12/21: 902K (53.8% white, 33.1% black) —> +20.7 white
12/22: 1.06M (54.4% white, 32.4% black) —> +22.0 white
12/23: 1.21M (55.0% white, 31.7% black) —-> +23.3 white
12/24: 1.34M (55.9% white, 31.5% black) —> +24.4 white
12/25: 1.35M (55.8% white, 31.5% black) —> +24.3 white
12/27: 1.36M (55.7% white, 31.5% black) —> +24.2 white

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1342126489383403521?s=20

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1342116169961140230

I'm feeling really positive about the EV stats. The last week of early voting should skew younger and Blacker and Fulton, DeKalb, and Gwinnett having early voting this weekend is helping us pad our numbers. Perdue/Loeffler are going to need Election Day to make up more of the vote than it did in November or win 2/3 of the ED vote both of which seem daunting. We will see......

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1342126489383403521?s=20

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1342116169961140230

I'm feeling really positive about the EV stats. The last week of early voting should skew younger and Blacker and Fulton, DeKalb, and Gwinnett having early voting this weekend is helping us pad our numbers. Perdue/Loeffler are going to need Election Day to make up more of the vote than it did in November or win 2/3 of the ED vote both of which seem daunting. We will see......

I am too, and my current estimates the final electorate will have a 79% chance of being at least plurality Biden. However, Perdue still outperformed Biden, and the e-day vote will make things tight. Will it be enough to put Perdue back ahead? That is yet to be seen. These seem like they are going to be close.

Estimate of current votes casts for the Perdue - Ossoff race is Ossoff + 8.9





Will also note that in order for Perdue to win my model estimates he will need to net about 200-300k votes on election day assuming trends roughly continue. The % of the vote that will be will depend upon turnout.

Obviously my model is imperfect, and I personally think that the number he needs to net will be closer to 175k-225k range, but that's speculation on my part

Overall though, most data indicates the current vote totals haveing both Ds anywhere up from 6-12 points

[forsythvoter]

Seriously, who are these 65k + voters who have thus far voted in the Georgia runoffs who didn't vote in the GE? Some may be people who since turned 18, but that isn't enough to explain all of it, plus I doubt every single person who since turned 18 has been registered.

Maybe some could be Dem-leaning folks who don't pay a lot of attention to politics and thought GA was a titanium R state, so voting in the GE would be useless. But they saw GA vote blue and know it's possible for a Dem to win.

Hmm, interesting theory. Generally, swing-states tend to have slightly higher turnout than non-swing states, so now that from the public's perception, GA now has potential to go blue, their vopte can actually matter. This is also probably the first time in a long time GA has been this heavily targetted; throughout the 2020 cycle, both campaigns had it as a lower tier priority, so maybe just better outreach of making the election known.

I do wonder though if you can flip the same logic on it's head and say that conservatives who once took the state for granted now feel more of an obligation to GOTV. As someone from NYC, I have stumbeled across some who take NY's status as a blue stronghold for granted.

My hunch is it's a mix of both, but it feels to me like there are more Reps sitting out the runoffs than Dems so the overall turnout numbers hide these hidden R voters. Granted, I haven't talked to that many Dems since there are so few of them here in Forsyth County, but every single one I do know has already voted early or sent in their mail-in-ballot. On  the Rep side, I know a few that don't want to support Trump and are considering sitting out the runoff to protest Loeffler and Perdue's support of Trump.

I also suspect some (although I have no personal interactions with such voters) who voted in the general primarily because of Trump are just less motivated to vote again in the runoffs. In theory this would also impact Dems who voted just to oppose Trump in Nov but Trump's fraud claims seem to have done a good job of keeping these voters motivated while also de-motivating the Rs who consider themselves more supporters of him than the party. Apparently, according to polls, this is a pretty large slice of the R party in GA.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Informative thread on the early voting numbers.  Click to read the whole thing:

https://twitter.com/cstewartiii/status/1343278393756962816

[roxas11]

I believe Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue would have better off if Trump had simply kept his mouth shut and not made a big such a big deal about the relief bill since he now has indicated he is going to sign it

The GOP could have portrayed the passage of the bill as them providing much needed relief
to the American people and both Loeffler and Perdue could have gotten a boost from that

Instead Trump decided he wanted to demonize the bill and claim that he wanted to give 2,000 dollars to every American. Now after all of his talk it looks like he is about to sign the same bill he spent days attacking and he ends up making both his party and himself look like a fools for pulling this stunt in the first place

[Matty]

I believe Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue would have better off if Trump had simply kept his mouth shut and not made a big such a big deal about the relief bill since he now has indicated he is going to sign it

The GOP could have portrayed the passage of the bill as them providing much needed relief
to the American people and both Loeffler and Perdue could have gotten a boost from that

Instead Trump decided he wanted to demonize the bill and claim that he wanted to give 2,000 dollars to every American. Now after all of his talk it looks like he is about to sign the same bill he spent days attacking and he ends up making both his party and himself look like a fools for pulling this stunt in the first place

Him not signing it would have been far worse.

it will be old news in a week.