Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[TML]

I wish all states did voter registration by party, it makes analysing the early vote easier, in NC and FL and AZ we knew what was going to happen because of the early vote this year, in GA we can only analyse the early vote by race which has limitations.

Even in states which do this, there are some places where voter registration by party is anything but predictive of how the county usually votes. For example, Breathitt County, KY has 83% of its voters officially registered to the Democratic Party and 14% officially registered to the Republican Party. However, in the 2020 General Election this county voted 75%-23% for the Republican presidential candidate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I really wish PPP poll this race, every pollster have had biases in both these races

[SCNCmod]

Update

Total of 111,655 ballots accepted so far (1.32M in the General)
Total of 1.135M ballots requested so far (1.782M in the General)

If each county breaks the same way the did in the GE Senate race, the breakdown would be:

Dems - 66,817
GOP - 44,838

Does anyone know how the 1.135M ballot requests compare to the number requested at this point in the General  (I'm not sure what the best point in time would be most comparable- maybe 20 days prior to the election, or halfway into the request period)?

[T0rM3nTeD]

Another ballot drop

Total of 200,995 ballots accepted so far (1.32M in the General)
Total of 1.167M ballots requested so far (1.195M in the General)

If each county breaks the same way the did in the GE Senate race, the breakdown would be:

Dems - 119,808
GOP - 81,187

Also, In-person early voting starts in 3 days. I'll track those too, by county as well.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/DJJudd/status/1337412672422338567

I read the whole thing, and honestly lost brain cells. 

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/DJJudd/status/1337412672422338567

I read the whole thing, and honestly lost brain cells. 

I notice that almost no one in those pictures wore a mask. I wouldn't be surprised if one or more of these figures contracted coronavirus as a result of attending this event. Gohmert, of course, had the virus several months ago and recovered from it.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Update

Total of 111,655 ballots accepted so far (1.32M in the General)
Total of 1.135M ballots requested so far (1.782M in the General)

If each county breaks the same way the did in the GE Senate race, the breakdown would be:

Dems - 66,817
GOP - 44,838

Does anyone know how the 1.135M ballot requests compare to the number requested at this point in the General  (I'm not sure what the best point in time would be most comparable- maybe 20 days prior to the election, or halfway into the request period)?

I would stop comparing tbh. Dems and other progressive groups on the ground are pushing in person early vote. The holidays + the fast turn around from November is making that the preferred method to casting ballots.

[MT Treasurer]

Steve Daines? Tilt R -> Safe R (unless Tester campaigns for Ds in GA, in which case the state implodes)

[Frenchrepublican]

Steve Daines? Tilt R -> Safe R (unless Tester campaigns for Ds in GA, in which case the state implodes)

Yeah Tester would probably redo the march to the sea but this time with a tractor

[S019]

Steve Daines? Tilt R -> Safe R (unless Tester campaigns for Ds in GA, in which case the state implodes)

I mean true, but Sarah Palin attending probably cancels out Daines' superpowers

[Roll Roons]

Will we have a good idea of who won on Jan 5 or will it take a couple days to count everything?

[MT Treasurer]

Seriously though, what’s the Republican ‘ground game’ like here right now? I think they have the right message (at least when they don’t get distracted from relentlessly nationalizing the race) but their turnout operation worries me far more than their messaging (Democrats are good at getting their base out; even in 2018 they only lost the runoffs by 4 when they didn’t even flip Cobb and only narrowly won Gwinnett).

[GALeftist]

Seriously though, what’s the Republican ‘ground game’ like here right now? I think they have the right message (at least when they don’t get distracted from relentlessly nationalizing the race) but their turnout operation worries me far more than their messaging (Democrats are good at getting their base out; even in 2018 they only lost the runoffs by 4 when they didn’t even flip Cobb and only narrowly won Gwinnett).

Republicans here are definitely really motivated, and I think the GOP honestly has a pretty good ground game from what I've seen, though the same obviously goes for the Democrats. I get the sense that it's going to be extremely close.

[MT Treasurer]

Republicans here are definitely really motivated, and I think the GOP honestly has a pretty good ground game from what I've seen, though the same obviously goes for the Democrats. I get the sense that it's going to be extremely close.

Thanks. I think both races will play out a lot like the GA-SoS 2018 runoff but with Ossoff/Warnock getting Barrow’s November numbers out of Atlanta (esp. suburban/exurban Atlanta, where the drop-off in D %-tage/turnout in the runoff was most severe) but Perdue/Loeffler getting somewhere between Trump 2020 and Kemp 2018 numbers out of rural/small-town GA. In other words: Definitely very close, but very, very slight (albeit tenuous) advantage to the Republicans.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Gotta love seeing "bipartisan" Steve Daines running around with Louie Gohmert, Sarah Palin, MJT and Jim Jordan a few weeks after his election.

[VAR]

Gotta love seeing "bipartisan" Steve Daines running around with Louie Gohmert, Sarah Palin, MJT and Jim Jordan a few weeks after his election.

Uh... Senator Daines didn't lie about being bipartisan. Montanans know he's bipartisan. Literally every Montanan knows about Senator Daines' bipartisan bill promoting veteran outdoor recovery programs that was recently signed into law

[KaiserDave]

Gotta love seeing "bipartisan" Steve Daines running around with Louie Gohmert, Sarah Palin, MJT and Jim Jordan a few weeks after his election.

Uh... Senator Daines didn't lie about being bipartisan. Montanans know he's bipartisan. Literally every Montanan knows about Senator Daines' bipartisan bill promoting veteran outdoor recovery programs that was recently signed into law

More like EVERYONE in the WORLD

Smh another rino

[MT Treasurer]

Gotta love seeing "bipartisan" Steve Daines running around with Louie Gohmert, Sarah Palin, MJT and Jim Jordan a few weeks after his election.

Uh... Senator Daines didn't lie about being bipartisan. Montanans know he's bipartisan. Literally every Montanan knows about Senator Daines' bipartisan bill promoting veteran outdoor recovery programs that was recently signed into law

Last week, Senator Daines' new bipartisan commonsense Internet of Things (IoT) Cybersecurity Improvement Act of 2020, which will increase cybersecurity standards for internet connected devices, was signed into law. If his wasn’t for Senator Daines championing coordinated vulnerability disclosure policies with the attendant emotional benefits of sharing selfies without hesitation or reservation, he likely would not have won the 18-to-29 Millennial/Generation Z age cohort, a large part of which is comprised of college-educated, libertarian, post-modernist but socially responsible swing voters in pivot counties like Gallatin (MSU, Bozeman main campus) and 67% of which supported Jon Tester in 2018, by 28 points (64-36) this year, which would have resulted in a far more competitive Senate race. Senator Daines KNOWS his state, which is why I opine that he’ll be extremely difficult to dislodge in 2026 (although it’s possible, if not likely, that I’m underrating him).

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/DJJudd/status/1337412672422338567

I read the whole thing, and honestly lost brain cells. 

"Win Georgia. Save America?"

So are they acknowledging that Biden won the election with this slogan?

[Florida Man for Crime]

Mail ballot requests continue to skew non-white as more come in

Special election mail ballot requests: 1,167,996 (53.6% white/31.2% black/5.3% asian or hispanic/9.1% other)

GE mail ballot requests: 1,782,580 (51.2% white/31.4% black/6.6% asian or hispanic/10.8% other)

So checking back in on this, it looks like the White percentage is indeed going down. It was 53.6% yesterday white, now down to 53.2%. If it were hypothetically to go down by 0.4% each day, then we would get to 51.2% white in 5 more days. The black percentage share also held firm at 31.4%.

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/GA_RO.html

Race    Count    Percent
Non-Hispanic White    636,821    53.2
Non-Hispanic Black    375,756    31.4
Hispanic    25,561    2.1
Non-Hispanic Asian American    38,465    3.2
Non-Hispanic Native American    1,607    0.1
Other/Multiple/Unknown    108,168    9.0

[MATTROSE94]

Mail ballot requests continue to skew non-white as more come in

Special election mail ballot requests: 1,167,996 (53.6% white/31.2% black/5.3% asian or hispanic/9.1% other)

GE mail ballot requests: 1,782,580 (51.2% white/31.4% black/6.6% asian or hispanic/10.8% other)

So checking back in on this, it looks like the White percentage is indeed going down. It was 53.6% yesterday white, now down to 53.2%. If it were hypothetically to go down by 0.4% each day, then we would get to 51.2% white in 5 more days. The black percentage share also held firm at 31.4%.

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/GA_RO.html

Race    Count    Percent
Non-Hispanic White    636,821    53.2
Non-Hispanic Black    375,756    31.4
Hispanic    25,561    2.1
Non-Hispanic Asian American    38,465    3.2
Non-Hispanic Native American    1,607    0.1
Other/Multiple/Unknown    108,168    9.0

Interesting. As of right now, I am giving Raphael Warnock a 51% chance of winning and David Perdue a 65% chance of winning.

[SCNCmod]

Update

Total of 111,655 ballots accepted so far (1.32M in the General)
Total of 1.135M ballots requested so far (1.782M in the General)

If each county breaks the same way the did in the GE Senate race, the breakdown would be:

Dems - 66,817
GOP - 44,838

Does anyone know how the 1.135M ballot requests compare to the number requested at this point in the General  (I'm not sure what the best point in time would be most comparable- maybe 20 days prior to the election, or halfway into the request period)?

I would stop comparing tbh. Dems and other progressive groups on the ground are pushing in person early vote. The holidays + the fast turn around from November is making that the preferred method to casting ballots.

That's interesting. I wonder if it's a smart strategy- it seems like banking a large lead in the VBM ballots worked well for Dems in the primary.  Even though there is a quick turnaround- anyone who does request a ballot, will for the most part have sufficient time to get it in on time. The small % that do not, is likely to be comparable to the % of people who plan to EV in person but do not get around to doing so.

I would think an all out campaign to request VBM would be the smartest... at least until Early In Person voting has actually started.

On the flip side- those who are likely to VBM, will probably do so anyway, since they would likely have VBM in the general (and already familiar with the process).  Also- the SurveyUSA poll indicated that more older republicans plan to VBM in the runoff.  If I remember correctly, it indicated the % of Republican VBM would likely increase to 40% of the VBM... which is consistent with the numbers so far.

[SCNCmod]

Steve Daines? Tilt R -> Safe R (unless Tester campaigns for Ds in GA, in which case the state implodes)

I mean true, but Sarah Palin attending probably cancels out Daines' superpowers

What's the story here- why would Daines or Tester have any impact in GA?

[Florida Man for Crime]

Steve Daines? Tilt R -> Safe R (unless Tester campaigns for Ds in GA, in which case the state implodes)

I mean true, but Sarah Palin attending probably cancels out Daines' superpowers

What's the story here- why would Daines or Tester have any impact in GA?

Because they are both unbeatable titans.

[SCNCmod]

Steve Daines? Tilt R -> Safe R (unless Tester campaigns for Ds in GA, in which case the state implodes)

I mean true, but Sarah Palin attending probably cancels out Daines' superpowers

What's the story here- why would Daines or Tester have any impact in GA?

Because they are both unbeatable titans.

I assume I'm missing some sort of sarcastic joking regarding Daines & Tester having any impact in GA? (EDIT... I see from the comment below that I was late on catching the humor!)

On a slightly different note, although I go back and forth regarding the possibility of a split result (and similarly regarding if the results will be extremely close or not)-  I keep going back to the notion that all of the unknown factors regarding turnout, are going to break to one party- enough so that one party will win both seats by something like 3-4% & 1-2% respectively).