Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[Bootes Void]

For what it's worth, I just applied the YouTube Comment Method™ to these races. It seems like the Democrats have an advantage.

I looked at the comments sections of the debate yesterday and they were very brutal to Loeffler.

[GeneralMacArthur]

I doubt Loeffler will be invited to Ebenezer Baptist or any other Black church after this....

But politicians shouldn't be visiting churches in the first place

I massively disagree.  We need politicians to be men and women of God who are going to church.  Saying that they should not go to church is also establishing a religious test on public office.  I do think that our country would be a much better place if all of our politicians in both parties were exclusively devout, churchgoing Evangelical Protestants.  But, I can't enforce that by law.

Well, you surely will be supporting Raphael Warnock then.  Loeffler spent the debate attacking Warnock for being a pastor, for being friends with other pastors, for giving sermons on well-known bible verses, and so on.  Warnock, on the other hand, is a pastor -- not just any pastor, but the successor to Martin Luther King Jr.

I would bet my entire net worth that Kelly Loeffler hasn't actually opened a bible once in the last five years.  I've seen no evidence that she is a Christian, and minimal evidence that she's a warm-blooded human at all.

What would Jesus say about Loeffler's non-stop lies?  What would he say about her enriching herself with insider trading while hiding COVID from her constituents?  These are things that are not in dispute.  It's just a matter of priorities -- some of us think these matter, others of us just use abortion as a trump card and prioritize the abortion issue over literally everything else, despite no politician on either side doing anything to change national abortion laws in decades.

I mean...I agree with you.

But ExtremeRepublican is ardently pro-life. And...Warnock isn't. That's ER's priority. Even if I disagree.

ExtremeRepublican shouldn't go around commenting on threads about politics or acting like he gives a damn about anything else, then, if it really is just pro-life = good, pro-choice = bad, and nothing else matters.

I mean if this guy would vote for Joseph Stalin himself if Stalin was pro-life and his opponent was pro-choice, then he shouldn't go around bashing communism.  Clearly it's not that big an issue as delivering red meat speeches on the Senate floor about the sanctity of life (which is all the pro-life politicians actually do).

[2952-0-0]

I mean if this guy would vote for Joseph Stalin himself if Stalin was pro-life and his opponent was pro-choice, then he shouldn't go around bashing communism.  Clearly it's not that big an issue as delivering red meat speeches on the Senate floor about the sanctity of life (which is all the pro-life politicians actually do).

On an unrelated tangent, Stalin, Ceaucescu, Hitler, and Kim Jong Un were all "pro-life", because they banned abortions. I wonder if they got any praise for doing so.

[GeneralMacArthur]

I mean if this guy would vote for Joseph Stalin himself if Stalin was pro-life and his opponent was pro-choice, then he shouldn't go around bashing communism.  Clearly it's not that big an issue as delivering red meat speeches on the Senate floor about the sanctity of life (which is all the pro-life politicians actually do).

On an unrelated tangent, Stalin, Ceaucescu, Hitler, and Kim Jong Un were all "pro-life", because they banned abortions. I wonder if they got any praise for doing so.

I wonder if ExtremeRepublican would rather Kim Jong Un be president over Biden, because Kim Jong Un would ban abortion.  Do ya think he'll respond?

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1336101371456741376

imo wasserman is a republican hack imo i'm tired of the pundits underestimating dems tbh

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1336101371456741376

I've been saying this all along too. Republicans always vote, and always will. The only way for Democrats to win is to outvote them, which is very simple to do but always seems harder to put into action than it should be.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1336101371456741376

I've been saying this all along too. Republicans always vote, and always will. The only way for Democrats to win is to outvote them, which is very simple to do but always seems harder to put into action than it should be.

Traditionally, Republicans have been more reliable, especially in off elections and lower profile races, though I do want to mention that Democrats did win 2018 by more than Rs won 2010 or 2014 in terms of raw votes. In Georgia, it does still seem like Republicans are more reliable voters, but 2018 and 2020 show they no longer have the big edge they once had. If Trump has done one good thing, he’s made so many Americans, left and right, more reliable voters, and it’ll be interesting to see who shows up now that he’s lost. Generally, I wouldn’t underestimate the power of Trumpism in this race, but I could also see Democrats easily outvoting Rs.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Once the Electors certifies Biden as Prez on 12/15, the Rs can't claim the Prez anymore. Also, McConnell trying to push Stimulus thru without 1200 is to his detriment and to Rs, and every user on this website including Rs would benefit from 1200 bucks


That's why Ossoff and Warnock will win🌊🌊🌊

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1336101371456741376

imo wasserman is a republican hack imo i'm tired of the pundits underestimating dems tbh

Nobody is peddling this theory except for Dem hacks who don't even live in Georgia. I wish y'all would stop giving it life.

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1336101371456741376

imo wasserman is a republican hack imo i'm tired of the pundits underestimating dems tbh

Well his attacks.....may have depressed turnout. But fair point nevertheless.

[Annatar]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1336101371456741376

I've been saying this all along too. Republicans always vote, and always will. The only way for Democrats to win is to outvote them, which is very simple to do but always seems harder to put into action than it should be.

Traditionally, Republicans have been more reliable, especially in off elections and lower profile races, though I do want to mention that Democrats did win 2018 by more than Rs won 2010 or 2014 in terms of raw votes. In Georgia, it does still seem like Republicans are more reliable voters, but 2018 and 2020 show they no longer have the big edge they once had. If Trump has done one good thing, he’s made so many Americans, left and right, more reliable voters, and it’ll be interesting to see who shows up now that he’s lost. Generally, I wouldn’t underestimate the power of Trumpism in this race, but I could also see Democrats easily outvoting Rs.

Republicans did not win the 2010 or 2014 midterms because they had better turnout, it was because independents voted against the party that controls the WH, in 2018 as well democrats did not win because of turnout, it was because independents voted against the party that controls the WH.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1336101371456741376

I've been saying this all along too. Republicans always vote, and always will. The only way for Democrats to win is to outvote them, which is very simple to do but always seems harder to put into action than it should be.

Traditionally, Republicans have been more reliable, especially in off elections and lower profile races, though I do want to mention that Democrats did win 2018 by more than Rs won 2010 or 2014 in terms of raw votes. In Georgia, it does still seem like Republicans are more reliable voters, but 2018 and 2020 show they no longer have the big edge they once had. If Trump has done one good thing, he’s made so many Americans, left and right, more reliable voters, and it’ll be interesting to see who shows up now that he’s lost. Generally, I wouldn’t underestimate the power of Trumpism in this race, but I could also see Democrats easily outvoting Rs.

Republicans did not win the 2010 or 2014 midterms because they had better turnout, it was because independents voted against the party that controls the WH, in 2018 as well democrats did not win because of turnout, it was because independents voted against the party that controls the WH.

Yes and no. In general, we generally swing voters break against the incumbent party in midterms, but I think part of the reason we saw Democrats do well in 2018 and Republicans in 2014 and 2010 was because of a steep drop off in turnout amongst the incumbent party. Yes, swing voters do exists, but I think recent elections have shown us for the most part, the group is very small. We're beginning to see how little canidate quality matters, though around the edges in close races it can matter. The one exception to this rule seems to be long term incumbents who have built up a big name, but we see Petersen loose by double digits, and people like Manchin and Collins win with significantly reduced margins from their previous elections. I would argue though Rs who voted for Manchin in 2018 or Ds who voted for Collins in 2020 didn't vote for them because their ideology was necessarily moderate, they just voted for who they knew but are partisans in pretty much every other respect. Think about it; outside ME, WV, MT, and a few non-contested safe races, there has been very few instances of any real notable over/underperformance, even with candidates who are known top0 be popular in their states.

In a state as polarized as GA, it seems unlikely there will be many voters who split ballot in these runoffs, they have been heavily nationalized to the point where it's a question of who you want to control the Senate. Sure; maybe there will be a few Perdue - Warnock voters who will vote for Perdue just because of the name or because he's a bit more tempered than Kelly, and a few Loeffler - Ossoff or Loeffler - Blank voters who think Perdue hasn't been aggressive enough on Trump, but ultimately, these groups are going to be very very small. Sure; there are probably a few swing voters in GA, buit at the end of the day, I think turnout will be a much more powerful force.

[SCNCmod]

Regarding Polls:  To the extent that the main value of polls (esp in this runoff) seems to be the outcome that would result from various turnout models- I find the most recent 2 polls (Dec 3,4) a bit puzzling...

Dec 3 (Survery USA)
Ossoff +2       (Ossoff 50  Perdue 48)
Warnock +7    (Warnock 52  Loeffler 47)
**a turnout model in which Warnock outperforms Ossoff by 6pts (or more precisely that Warnock receives a 2% higher vote total than Ossoff).
Demographics of poll: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ea81d6f1-db8e-4f77-b44a-63e9893acc3e

Dec 4 (Trafalgar-R)
Ossoff +1       (Ossoff 48  Perdue 47)
Loeffler +5    (Warnock 45  Loeffler 50)
**a turnout model in which Ossoff outperforms Warnock by 4pts (or more precisely that Ossoff receives a 3% higher vote total than Warnock).
Demographics of poll: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1eFVivsXv4uwZNBzuO-y7rMjo7LXVvfVF/view


So 2 questions after comparing these two results (and therefore 2 turnout models)
1) What turnout model results in Ossoff getting more votes than Warnock & vice versa (but especially, what type of voter is saying they would vote for Ossoff & Loeffler in the Dec 4th poll)?

2) or- Could these two polls indicate that there is around 3% of people who may vote for Loeffler- but unwilling to admit this to most pollsters- similar to Trump under-polling (considering Trafalgar seems to pride itself on having a lengthier polling process that discovers the shy-to-admit trump vote).

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

epic

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's VBM and this is an entirely new Election, minority groups are VBM more than WC and Trumpians are gonna same day vote, it's not a typical Election


I feel a D sweep as I have always said, but not undereating Rs

[Hammy]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1336101371456741376

imo wasserman is a republican hack imo i'm tired of the pundits underestimating dems tbh

Not that I personally think GOP turnout will be low (though I'm obviously hoping) but saying this won't happen because the other claims were wrong is ironic considering Raffensperger said during an interview that there were about 20k or so Republicans who voted by mail during the primary, and did not vote at all in the GE.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1336101371456741376

imo wasserman is a republican hack imo i'm tired of the pundits underestimating dems tbh

Not that I personally think GOP turnout will be low (though I'm obviously hoping) but saying this won't happen because the other claims were wrong is ironic considering Raffensperger said during an interview that there were about 20k or so Republicans who voted by mail during the primary, and did not vote at all in the GE.

20k can mean anything

They could have died or moved away
 

[Rookie Yinzer]

There are just so many unknowns in this race; I feel like a lopsided result is very possible, but with the data we have, we’ll we really just don’t have enough to pinpoint much. After 2020, polls may be correct or may be 10% off, rendering them somewhat useless; the few polls we have are all over the place. I hate the ambiguity. I’m going to try to see if I can do them math today to see which counties have high share of these 6.6% of new voters, since 6.6% is not an insignificant amount; I’ll look at Clayton first since that’s probably the most Democratic county with 100k+ people in GA. What other counties would be good to analyze?

Did you ever get to do this?

The demographic breakdown of this group is:
White- 44%
Black- 35%
Hispanic- 2%
Asian- 3%
Other- 16%

Seems good for the Dems to me, neutral at worst.

[Hammy]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1336101371456741376

imo wasserman is a republican hack imo i'm tired of the pundits underestimating dems tbh

Not that I personally think GOP turnout will be low (though I'm obviously hoping) but saying this won't happen because the other claims were wrong is ironic considering Raffensperger said during an interview that there were about 20k or so Republicans who voted by mail during the primary, and did not vote at all in the GE.

20k can mean anything

They could have died or moved away
 

He explicitly stated he feels Trump's rhetoric hurt GOP turnout and cited that.

[ProgressiveModerate]

There are just so many unknowns in this race; I feel like a lopsided result is very possible, but with the data we have, we’ll we really just don’t have enough to pinpoint much. After 2020, polls may be correct or may be 10% off, rendering them somewhat useless; the few polls we have are all over the place. I hate the ambiguity. I’m going to try to see if I can do them math today to see which counties have high share of these 6.6% of new voters, since 6.6% is not an insignificant amount; I’ll look at Clayton first since that’s probably the most Democratic county with 100k+ people in GA. What other counties would be good to analyze?

Did you ever get to do this?

The demographic breakdown of this group is:
White- 44%
Black- 35%
Hispanic- 2%
Asian- 3%
Other- 16%

Seems good for the Dems to me, neutral at worst.

Nope, couldn't find the data I needed unfortunately, though I'll keep looking and see what I can come up with. Are those numbers of demographic breakdown from Clayton, or statewide? If it's from Clayton, that's not particularly great, if it's statewide, definately a positive sign for Ds.

[Rookie Yinzer]

There are just so many unknowns in this race; I feel like a lopsided result is very possible, but with the data we have, we’ll we really just don’t have enough to pinpoint much. After 2020, polls may be correct or may be 10% off, rendering them somewhat useless; the few polls we have are all over the place. I hate the ambiguity. I’m going to try to see if I can do them math today to see which counties have high share of these 6.6% of new voters, since 6.6% is not an insignificant amount; I’ll look at Clayton first since that’s probably the most Democratic county with 100k+ people in GA. What other counties would be good to analyze?

Did you ever get to do this?

The demographic breakdown of this group is:
White- 44%
Black- 35%
Hispanic- 2%
Asian- 3%
Other- 16%

Seems good for the Dems to me, neutral at worst.

Nope, couldn't find the data I needed unfortunately, though I'll keep looking and see what I can come up with. Are those numbers of demographic breakdown from Clayton, or statewide? If it's from Clayton, that's not particularly great, if it's statewide, definately a positive sign for Ds.

Statewide. There aren’t enough white people in Clayton for that number to happen lol

[ProgressiveModerate]

There are just so many unknowns in this race; I feel like a lopsided result is very possible, but with the data we have, we’ll we really just don’t have enough to pinpoint much. After 2020, polls may be correct or may be 10% off, rendering them somewhat useless; the few polls we have are all over the place. I hate the ambiguity. I’m going to try to see if I can do them math today to see which counties have high share of these 6.6% of new voters, since 6.6% is not an insignificant amount; I’ll look at Clayton first since that’s probably the most Democratic county with 100k+ people in GA. What other counties would be good to analyze?

Did you ever get to do this?

The demographic breakdown of this group is:
White- 44%
Black- 35%
Hispanic- 2%
Asian- 3%
Other- 16%

Seems good for the Dems to me, neutral at worst.

Nope, couldn't find the data I needed unfortunately, though I'll keep looking and see what I can come up with. Are those numbers of demographic breakdown from Clayton, or statewide? If it's from Clayton, that's not particularly great, if it's statewide, definately a positive sign for Ds.

Statewide. There aren’t enough white people in Clayton for that number to happen lol

lol for a second I got really worried those were the Clayton numbers; could only imagine what the rest of the state would be like.

[Cassandra]

Question:

I moved last week and forgot to update my address by yesterday. That means I can't vote, right? Don't want psychos accusing me of "voter fraud" or whatever the f*co.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Question:

I moved last week and forgot to update my address by yesterday. That means I can't vote, right? Don't want psychos accusing me of "voter fraud" or whatever the f*co.

Unfortunately, that is probably the case, but you can work on the ground to help ensure those who are registered vote. It's basically an indirect form of voting. Furthermore, if you have friends of family in the state who are unreliable voters but have clear ideological leanings, ensure they vote too, and think of that as your vote.

I'm, assuming you tried to register to vote while your address was in another state, so I think it depends upon whether you officially count as a Georgia resident or not when you registered. Generally, in order to be considered a resident, you have to have your official address in the state, though there are a few exceptions out there.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs don't realize that this is a VBM Election, not same day voting and D's can run up score again like we did during the regular Election