2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Non Swing Voter]

Side note: Trump is very lucky he's never been a Michigan resident, because Nessel would TOTALLY indict him for tax fraud or any other shady thing he did once he's a private citizen. Has Trump ever owned any properties in Michigan? If so I bet she'll be probing those finances anyway...

LOL, you think the NY AG is any less eager?  and you get the added benefit of a NY jury pool instead of a MI jury pool.  Trump's histrionics post election are about his looming jail prospects.

If the Trump Org was in FL instead, the AG would potentially be some corrupt swamp creature like Pam Bondi. Bondi dropped a investigation into the Trump Org in the 2000's after she got a big campaign donation from Trump. DeSantis would probably pardon Trump for any FL charge as well.

Thankfully Trump and family committed all their crimes in NY.  This is why he's so scared to leave office.  No protection and no partisan actors helping him.  Plus a jury pool that despises him. 

Imagine going from the high of being President and genuinely thinking you'd be re-elected to the low of losing and realizing ur going to face all kinds of prosecution really soon.  Must be an awful feeling.  And all I have to say is, ha ha ha.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It is a bit disconcerting that they are throwing out a significant number of ballots in Dane county that were originally counted. It won't change the outcome, obviously, but it still makes me suspect that the GOP is being successful in challenging ballots and setting a bad precedent for future elections.

[Hammy]

It is a bit disconcerting that they are throwing out a significant number of ballots in Dane county that were originally counted. It won't change the outcome, obviously, but it still makes me suspect that the GOP is being successful in challenging ballots and setting a bad precedent for future elections.

That precedent was already set in 2000 in Florida.

[Badger]

So does it look like Biden will achieve or even marginally exceed a full 4.0% margin of victory?

[Holmes]

So does it look like Biden will achieve or even marginally exceed a full 4.0% margin of victory?

Yes.

[Bootes Void]

according to the exit polls Texas is 23% hispanic while California is 34%, anyone else find that strange?

Both states are about the same % hispanic according to the census

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1331086969183621120

[n1240]

NY update:

Absentee count:

Biden 396264 (73.0%)
Trump 137951 (25.5%)
Total 542907

Margin of 47.6%, average weighted final eday margin of Trump +5.8%, so average swing of 53.4%.

Statewide total:

Biden 4094896 (56.9%)
Trump 2988721 (41.5%)
Total 7199497

[Gass3268]

NY update:

Absentee count:

Biden 396264 (73.0%)
Trump 137951 (25.5%)
Total 542907

Margin of 47.6%, average weighted final eday margin of Trump +5.8%, so average swing of 53.4%.

Statewide total:

Biden 4094896 (56.9%)
Trump 2988721 (41.5%)
Total 7199497

Is there a 100% up to date map anywhere?

[Tender Branson]

20/51 „states“ have now certified results (see original post).

[n1240]

NY update:

Absentee count:

Biden 396264 (73.0%)
Trump 137951 (25.5%)
Total 542907

Margin of 47.6%, average weighted final eday margin of Trump +5.8%, so average swing of 53.4%.

Statewide total:

Biden 4094896 (56.9%)
Trump 2988721 (41.5%)
Total 7199497

Is there a 100% up to date map anywhere?

Don't think so, Politico seems to be most up-to-date right now but missing Saratoga and Dutchess notably.

[Hammy]

NY update:

Absentee count:

Biden 396264 (73.0%)
Trump 137951 (25.5%)
Total 542907

Margin of 47.6%, average weighted final eday margin of Trump +5.8%, so average swing of 53.4%.

Statewide total:

Biden 4094896 (56.9%)
Trump 2988721 (41.5%)
Total 7199497

Any idea when NY finishes?

[n1240]

NY update:

Absentee count:

Biden 396264 (73.0%)
Trump 137951 (25.5%)
Total 542907

Margin of 47.6%, average weighted final eday margin of Trump +5.8%, so average swing of 53.4%.

Statewide total:

Biden 4094896 (56.9%)
Trump 2988721 (41.5%)
Total 7199497

Any idea when NY finishes?

State has to certify by December 8 so there's probably an 85% chance every county has certified by then. Have heard that NYC is expected to certify early next week but don't have high confidence in this. Should probably get some medium/large counties to certify by Thanksgiving and most/all counties are done by end of next week.

[Antonio the Sixth]

NY update:

Absentee count:

Biden 396264 (73.0%)
Trump 137951 (25.5%)
Total 542907

Margin of 47.6%, average weighted final eday margin of Trump +5.8%, so average swing of 53.4%.

Statewide total:

Biden 4094896 (56.9%)
Trump 2988721 (41.5%)
Total 7199497

Is there a 100% up to date map anywhere?

Don't think so, Politico seems to be most up-to-date right now but missing Saratoga and Dutchess notably.

Could you make an Atlas-style map of the counties that are complete or almost-complete? That'd be really cool to see.

[Tender Branson]

14 of the 20 states with official/certified results have also published "total ballots cast", which includes ballots other than President as well and which is important for turnout.

The 6 who have not are:

AL, GA, KY, ME, MS and OK.

[Tender Branson]

Maybe I should also consider Hawaii as official now ?

They had a deadline of objection yesterday and their pages do not say anything about unofficial or official, so I guess those numbers are basically their final results.

[wbrocks67]

Any other PA folks, here? I'm confused as to whether these ballots were already counted in the current Philly total or not. I saw they certified yesterday so that's what made confused (this ruling came out *after* they certified...)

https://twitter.com/timelywriter/status/1331055635711086594

[n1240]

NY update:

Absentee count:

Biden 396264 (73.0%)
Trump 137951 (25.5%)
Total 542907

Margin of 47.6%, average weighted final eday margin of Trump +5.8%, so average swing of 53.4%.

Statewide total:

Biden 4094896 (56.9%)
Trump 2988721 (41.5%)
Total 7199497

Is there a 100% up to date map anywhere?

Don't think so, Politico seems to be most up-to-date right now but missing Saratoga and Dutchess notably.

Could you make an Atlas-style map of the counties that are complete or almost-complete? That'd be really cool to see.

It's been something I've been thinking about doing, will get around to it in a little while. Thanks for asking!

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1331249919093600263?s=20

Massachusetts has published its final results.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1331249919093600263?s=20

Massachusetts has published its final results.

It still astounds me that Biden was able to outperform both Obama and Kerry in Massachusetts, garnering the best Democratic result here since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. Biden is only the second presidential candidate, following Johnson, to win the state by at least a million votes.

[Roll Roons]

Talk about empty calories.

[Calthrina950]

Talk about empty calories.

What do you mean?

[Hnv1]

Talk about empty calories.

What do you mean?

I think he means increasing in strength in NE over battleground states.

So MA is now the second-best Biden state, any last votes in MD that might change it back?

Correction: Maryland is still the second-best by a tiny margin.

[Roll Roons]

Talk about empty calories.

What do you mean?

It doesn't do him any good to run up the score in a state that's already extremely blue. Would have been much more helpful to get a 6 point swing in North Carolina.

[Mike88]

Biden has now surpassed the 80 million vote mark. If you add the updated numbers in the Cook popular vote tracker plus the NY data that n1240 is updating almost every day, Biden surpasses easily that mark:

80,021,646 Biden 51.0%
73,873,960 Trump 47.1%
  2,882,123 Others 1.8%